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Joe Biden is basing his candidacy on the proposition that he will be able to win over significant numbers of Republican voters, once they see that he's more moderate than other Democrats and realize what a repellent human being Donald Trump is. Here, Biden speaks during a rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. (Photo: AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
ancy Pelosi is worried about 2020. As, of course, is every Democrat, but Pelosi has an analysis of the challenge the party faces that is striking in how tentative it sounds, even frightened. Here's what she told The New York Times over the weekend:
Sitting in her office with its panoramic view of the National Mall, Ms. Pelosi--the de facto head of the Democratic Party until a presidential nominee is selected in 2020--offered Democrats her "coldblooded" plan for decisively ridding themselves of Mr. Trump: Do not get dragged into a protracted impeachment bid that will ultimately get crushed in the Republican-controlled Senate, and do not risk alienating the moderate voters who flocked to the party in 2018 by drifting too far to the left.
"Own the center left, own the mainstream," Ms. Pelosi, 79, said.
It wasn't that long ago that Pelosi was supposed to epitomize the left's radicalism, a "San Francisco liberal" who filled every heartland American with rage and disgust. Now she's telling the Democratic Party that the path to victory is by limiting conflict with Donald Trump and offering a sedate policy centrism.
She's not the only one. The current front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Joe Biden, is basing his candidacy on the proposition that he will be able to win over significant numbers of Republican voters, once they see that he's more moderate than other Democrats and realize what a repellent human being Donald Trump is.
The only problem with that theory is that there is no reason to believe it's true. Trump's approval from Republican voters is at a near-perfect 90 percent, according to Gallup, and it isn't like they haven't gotten a good enough look at him to realize who he is. Their elected officials have proven time and time again that there is literally nothing Trump could do that would make them turn their backs on him; the one or two who felt that they might, like former Senator Jeff Flake, did it only when they were on their way to retirement.
But Joe Biden has faith in the GOP. "This is not the Republican Party," he says, testifying to his bond with "my Republican friends in the House and Senate." Once Trump is gone, they'll revert to their old responsible selves and become reasonable again. Just like they were when Biden was vice president and they pursued a strategy of total opposition to everything Barack Obama wanted to do, capping it off by refusing to allow his nomination to a vacant Supreme Court seat to even get a hearing. Those Republicans are the ones who are supposedly going to join with President Biden in a spirit of bipartisan compromise to do what is best for the country.
While Biden has no excuse for his absurdly deluded beliefs about how Republicans would act if he were president, at least his belief about how to win a national election has a logic to it. It says that you have to persuade voters in the middle (and across it) in order to win, showing the largest number of voters that you're ideologically closer to them than your opponent.
It's called the Median Voter Theorem (since the idea is to position yourself closer to the median voter than your opponent), and though it makes a kind of intuitive sense, in practice it usually turns out to be wrong. That's because ideology plays a minor role at most in voters' decisions, and the electorate itself is not static. A great deal depends on which voters are excited enough to get to the polls and which voters are disengaged enough to stay home.
And in an era of partisan polarization, there are few voters in the middle left to persuade. In 2016 Hillary Clinton thought she could win over moderate Republicans who were disgusted with their party's nominee; she failed. In fact, if you look over recent presidential elections you'll see one supposedly moderate candidate after another losing, while the winners are almost always those who excite their own party enough to drive turnout. In order to find a presidential nominee who lost because he was too far out of the ideological mainstream, you'd have to go back almost half a century to George McGovern in 1972. Meanwhile, the list of losers is heavy with candidates who thought they would win if only voters understood how moderate they were.
Nobody understands this better than Republicans, who manage to regularly win elections with a spectacularly unpopular policy agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy, outlawing abortion, taking health coverage from millions of people, and exacerbating climate change. If it was all about who could be more of a centrist, they'd never stand a chance.
Nobody understands this better than Republicans, who manage to regularly win elections with a spectacularly unpopular policy agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy, outlawing abortion, taking health coverage from millions of people, and exacerbating climate change. If it was all about who could be more of a centrist, they'd never stand a chance.
Then they get quoted in news stories explaining that rationale for their decision, and the cycle continues. As one voter told the Times's Lisa Lerer, "I like Joe. We need someone in the first place who's electable in 2020. Look, my own personal beliefs are probably a little to the left of where he is, but independents are going to be crucial in 2020."
When voters put on their pundit hats in this way, they adopt the same fear and distrust of the electorate that characterizes so many elected Democrats--including, it appears, Nancy Pelosi. They think that if Democrats offer liberal policy ideas then the public will reject them, no matter how many polls they see showing that their policy agenda is vastly more popular than what Republicans favor.
They've bought into a conservative myth, one that has existed for some time. As multiple studies by political scientists have shown (see here or here), elected officials tend to believe their own constituents are more conservative than they actually are. Most remarkably, that's true of both Republican and Democratic officeholders (though the Republicans overestimate the public's conservatism by wider margins).
Pelosi likes to point out that many of the Democrats who won in 2018 came from swing districts and stopped short of advocating single-payer health care or a government jobs guarantee, which is true. But it's also true that the Democrats won such big victories because turnout exploded--it topped 50 percent, compared to just 37 percent in the last midterm.
The 2020 election will be as complex as any other, but it isn't going to be determined by which candidate is closer to the ideological midpoint. If Democrats are going to win, they're going to have to nominate someone who gets their own party's voters motivated to organize and get to the polls. That could be any number of candidates, even Joe Biden. But it won't be because they took positions designed to offend as few Republicans as possible.
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ancy Pelosi is worried about 2020. As, of course, is every Democrat, but Pelosi has an analysis of the challenge the party faces that is striking in how tentative it sounds, even frightened. Here's what she told The New York Times over the weekend:
Sitting in her office with its panoramic view of the National Mall, Ms. Pelosi--the de facto head of the Democratic Party until a presidential nominee is selected in 2020--offered Democrats her "coldblooded" plan for decisively ridding themselves of Mr. Trump: Do not get dragged into a protracted impeachment bid that will ultimately get crushed in the Republican-controlled Senate, and do not risk alienating the moderate voters who flocked to the party in 2018 by drifting too far to the left.
"Own the center left, own the mainstream," Ms. Pelosi, 79, said.
It wasn't that long ago that Pelosi was supposed to epitomize the left's radicalism, a "San Francisco liberal" who filled every heartland American with rage and disgust. Now she's telling the Democratic Party that the path to victory is by limiting conflict with Donald Trump and offering a sedate policy centrism.
She's not the only one. The current front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Joe Biden, is basing his candidacy on the proposition that he will be able to win over significant numbers of Republican voters, once they see that he's more moderate than other Democrats and realize what a repellent human being Donald Trump is.
The only problem with that theory is that there is no reason to believe it's true. Trump's approval from Republican voters is at a near-perfect 90 percent, according to Gallup, and it isn't like they haven't gotten a good enough look at him to realize who he is. Their elected officials have proven time and time again that there is literally nothing Trump could do that would make them turn their backs on him; the one or two who felt that they might, like former Senator Jeff Flake, did it only when they were on their way to retirement.
But Joe Biden has faith in the GOP. "This is not the Republican Party," he says, testifying to his bond with "my Republican friends in the House and Senate." Once Trump is gone, they'll revert to their old responsible selves and become reasonable again. Just like they were when Biden was vice president and they pursued a strategy of total opposition to everything Barack Obama wanted to do, capping it off by refusing to allow his nomination to a vacant Supreme Court seat to even get a hearing. Those Republicans are the ones who are supposedly going to join with President Biden in a spirit of bipartisan compromise to do what is best for the country.
While Biden has no excuse for his absurdly deluded beliefs about how Republicans would act if he were president, at least his belief about how to win a national election has a logic to it. It says that you have to persuade voters in the middle (and across it) in order to win, showing the largest number of voters that you're ideologically closer to them than your opponent.
It's called the Median Voter Theorem (since the idea is to position yourself closer to the median voter than your opponent), and though it makes a kind of intuitive sense, in practice it usually turns out to be wrong. That's because ideology plays a minor role at most in voters' decisions, and the electorate itself is not static. A great deal depends on which voters are excited enough to get to the polls and which voters are disengaged enough to stay home.
And in an era of partisan polarization, there are few voters in the middle left to persuade. In 2016 Hillary Clinton thought she could win over moderate Republicans who were disgusted with their party's nominee; she failed. In fact, if you look over recent presidential elections you'll see one supposedly moderate candidate after another losing, while the winners are almost always those who excite their own party enough to drive turnout. In order to find a presidential nominee who lost because he was too far out of the ideological mainstream, you'd have to go back almost half a century to George McGovern in 1972. Meanwhile, the list of losers is heavy with candidates who thought they would win if only voters understood how moderate they were.
Nobody understands this better than Republicans, who manage to regularly win elections with a spectacularly unpopular policy agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy, outlawing abortion, taking health coverage from millions of people, and exacerbating climate change. If it was all about who could be more of a centrist, they'd never stand a chance.
Nobody understands this better than Republicans, who manage to regularly win elections with a spectacularly unpopular policy agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy, outlawing abortion, taking health coverage from millions of people, and exacerbating climate change. If it was all about who could be more of a centrist, they'd never stand a chance.
Then they get quoted in news stories explaining that rationale for their decision, and the cycle continues. As one voter told the Times's Lisa Lerer, "I like Joe. We need someone in the first place who's electable in 2020. Look, my own personal beliefs are probably a little to the left of where he is, but independents are going to be crucial in 2020."
When voters put on their pundit hats in this way, they adopt the same fear and distrust of the electorate that characterizes so many elected Democrats--including, it appears, Nancy Pelosi. They think that if Democrats offer liberal policy ideas then the public will reject them, no matter how many polls they see showing that their policy agenda is vastly more popular than what Republicans favor.
They've bought into a conservative myth, one that has existed for some time. As multiple studies by political scientists have shown (see here or here), elected officials tend to believe their own constituents are more conservative than they actually are. Most remarkably, that's true of both Republican and Democratic officeholders (though the Republicans overestimate the public's conservatism by wider margins).
Pelosi likes to point out that many of the Democrats who won in 2018 came from swing districts and stopped short of advocating single-payer health care or a government jobs guarantee, which is true. But it's also true that the Democrats won such big victories because turnout exploded--it topped 50 percent, compared to just 37 percent in the last midterm.
The 2020 election will be as complex as any other, but it isn't going to be determined by which candidate is closer to the ideological midpoint. If Democrats are going to win, they're going to have to nominate someone who gets their own party's voters motivated to organize and get to the polls. That could be any number of candidates, even Joe Biden. But it won't be because they took positions designed to offend as few Republicans as possible.
ancy Pelosi is worried about 2020. As, of course, is every Democrat, but Pelosi has an analysis of the challenge the party faces that is striking in how tentative it sounds, even frightened. Here's what she told The New York Times over the weekend:
Sitting in her office with its panoramic view of the National Mall, Ms. Pelosi--the de facto head of the Democratic Party until a presidential nominee is selected in 2020--offered Democrats her "coldblooded" plan for decisively ridding themselves of Mr. Trump: Do not get dragged into a protracted impeachment bid that will ultimately get crushed in the Republican-controlled Senate, and do not risk alienating the moderate voters who flocked to the party in 2018 by drifting too far to the left.
"Own the center left, own the mainstream," Ms. Pelosi, 79, said.
It wasn't that long ago that Pelosi was supposed to epitomize the left's radicalism, a "San Francisco liberal" who filled every heartland American with rage and disgust. Now she's telling the Democratic Party that the path to victory is by limiting conflict with Donald Trump and offering a sedate policy centrism.
She's not the only one. The current front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, Joe Biden, is basing his candidacy on the proposition that he will be able to win over significant numbers of Republican voters, once they see that he's more moderate than other Democrats and realize what a repellent human being Donald Trump is.
The only problem with that theory is that there is no reason to believe it's true. Trump's approval from Republican voters is at a near-perfect 90 percent, according to Gallup, and it isn't like they haven't gotten a good enough look at him to realize who he is. Their elected officials have proven time and time again that there is literally nothing Trump could do that would make them turn their backs on him; the one or two who felt that they might, like former Senator Jeff Flake, did it only when they were on their way to retirement.
But Joe Biden has faith in the GOP. "This is not the Republican Party," he says, testifying to his bond with "my Republican friends in the House and Senate." Once Trump is gone, they'll revert to their old responsible selves and become reasonable again. Just like they were when Biden was vice president and they pursued a strategy of total opposition to everything Barack Obama wanted to do, capping it off by refusing to allow his nomination to a vacant Supreme Court seat to even get a hearing. Those Republicans are the ones who are supposedly going to join with President Biden in a spirit of bipartisan compromise to do what is best for the country.
While Biden has no excuse for his absurdly deluded beliefs about how Republicans would act if he were president, at least his belief about how to win a national election has a logic to it. It says that you have to persuade voters in the middle (and across it) in order to win, showing the largest number of voters that you're ideologically closer to them than your opponent.
It's called the Median Voter Theorem (since the idea is to position yourself closer to the median voter than your opponent), and though it makes a kind of intuitive sense, in practice it usually turns out to be wrong. That's because ideology plays a minor role at most in voters' decisions, and the electorate itself is not static. A great deal depends on which voters are excited enough to get to the polls and which voters are disengaged enough to stay home.
And in an era of partisan polarization, there are few voters in the middle left to persuade. In 2016 Hillary Clinton thought she could win over moderate Republicans who were disgusted with their party's nominee; she failed. In fact, if you look over recent presidential elections you'll see one supposedly moderate candidate after another losing, while the winners are almost always those who excite their own party enough to drive turnout. In order to find a presidential nominee who lost because he was too far out of the ideological mainstream, you'd have to go back almost half a century to George McGovern in 1972. Meanwhile, the list of losers is heavy with candidates who thought they would win if only voters understood how moderate they were.
Nobody understands this better than Republicans, who manage to regularly win elections with a spectacularly unpopular policy agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy, outlawing abortion, taking health coverage from millions of people, and exacerbating climate change. If it was all about who could be more of a centrist, they'd never stand a chance.
Nobody understands this better than Republicans, who manage to regularly win elections with a spectacularly unpopular policy agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy, outlawing abortion, taking health coverage from millions of people, and exacerbating climate change. If it was all about who could be more of a centrist, they'd never stand a chance.
Then they get quoted in news stories explaining that rationale for their decision, and the cycle continues. As one voter told the Times's Lisa Lerer, "I like Joe. We need someone in the first place who's electable in 2020. Look, my own personal beliefs are probably a little to the left of where he is, but independents are going to be crucial in 2020."
When voters put on their pundit hats in this way, they adopt the same fear and distrust of the electorate that characterizes so many elected Democrats--including, it appears, Nancy Pelosi. They think that if Democrats offer liberal policy ideas then the public will reject them, no matter how many polls they see showing that their policy agenda is vastly more popular than what Republicans favor.
They've bought into a conservative myth, one that has existed for some time. As multiple studies by political scientists have shown (see here or here), elected officials tend to believe their own constituents are more conservative than they actually are. Most remarkably, that's true of both Republican and Democratic officeholders (though the Republicans overestimate the public's conservatism by wider margins).
Pelosi likes to point out that many of the Democrats who won in 2018 came from swing districts and stopped short of advocating single-payer health care or a government jobs guarantee, which is true. But it's also true that the Democrats won such big victories because turnout exploded--it topped 50 percent, compared to just 37 percent in the last midterm.
The 2020 election will be as complex as any other, but it isn't going to be determined by which candidate is closer to the ideological midpoint. If Democrats are going to win, they're going to have to nominate someone who gets their own party's voters motivated to organize and get to the polls. That could be any number of candidates, even Joe Biden. But it won't be because they took positions designed to offend as few Republicans as possible.
"Zeldin's assertion that the EPA shouldn't address greenhouse gas emissions is like a fire chief claiming that they shouldn't fight fires," said one critic. "It is as malicious as it is absurd."
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration faced an onslaught of criticism on Tuesday for starting the process of repealing the 2009 legal opinion that greenhouse gases endanger public health and the welfare of the American people—which has enabled federal regulations aimed at the fossil fuel-driven climate emergency over the past 15 years.
Confirming reports from last week, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin unveiled the rule to rescind the 2009 "endangerment finding" at a truck dealership in Indiana. According to The New York Times, he said that "the proposal would, if finalized, amount to the largest deregulatory action in the history of the United States."
If the administration succeeds in repealing the legal finding, the EPA would lack authority under the Clean Air Act to impose standards for greenhouse gas emissions—meaning the move would kill vehicle regulations. As with the reporting last week, the formal announcement was sharply condemned by climate and health advocates and experts.
"Greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and are the root cause of the climate crisis," said Deanna Noël with Public Citizen's Climate Program, ripping the administration's effort as "grossly misguided and exceptionally dangerous."
"This isn't just a denial of science and reality—it's a betrayal of public trust and yet another signal that this administration is working for corporate interests, and no one else."
"Stripping the EPA of its ability to regulate greenhouse gases is like throwing away the fire extinguisher while the house is already burning," she warned. "The administration is shamelessly handing Big Oil a hall pass to pollute unchecked and dodge accountability, leaving working families to bear the costs through worsening health outcomes, rising energy bills, more climate-fueled extreme weather, and an increasingly unstable future. This isn't just a denial of science and reality—it's a betrayal of public trust and yet another signal that this administration is working for corporate interests, and no one else."
Noël was far from alone in accusing the administration's leaders of serving the polluters who helped Trump return to power.
"Zeldin and Trump are concerned only with maximizing short-term profits for polluting corporations and the CEOs funneling millions of dollars to their campaign coffers," said Jim Walsh, policy director at Food & Water Watch. "Zeldin's assertion that the EPA shouldn't address greenhouse gas emissions is like a fire chief claiming that they shouldn't fight fires. It is as malicious as it is absurd."
Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity's Safe Climate Transport Campaign, similarly said that the proposal is "purely a political bow to the oil industry" and "Trump is putting fealty to Big Oil over sound science and people's health."
Earthworks policy director Lauren Pagel also called the rule "a perverse gift to the fossil fuel industry that rejects yearslong efforts by the agency, scientists, NGOs, frontline communities, and industry to protect public health and our environment."
"Donald Trump and Lee Zeldin are playing with fire—and with floods and droughts and public health risks, too," she stressed, as about 168 million Americans on Tuesday faced advisories for extreme heat made more likely by the climate crisis.
🚨 The Trump administration just took its most extreme step yet in rolling back climate protections.
[image or embed]
— Sierra Club (@sierraclub.org) July 29, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Justin Chen, president of American Federation of Government Employees Council 238, which represents over 8,000 EPA workers nationwide, said that the repeal plan "is reckless and will have far-reaching, disastrous consequences for the USA."
"EPA career professionals have worked for decades on the development of the science and policy of greenhouse gases to protect the American public," he continued, "and this policy decision completely disregards all of their work in service to the public."
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) highlighted that Chris Wright, head of the Department of Energy, joined Zeldin at the Tuesday press conference and "announced a DOE 'climate science study' alongside remarks that were rife with climate denial talking points and disinformation."
UCS president Gretchen Goldman said that "it's abundantly clear what's going on here. The Trump administration refuses to acknowledge robust climate science and is using the kitchen sink approach: making every specious argument it can to avoid complying with the law."
"But getting around the Clean Air Act won't be easy," she added. "The science establishing climate harms to human health was unequivocally clear back in 2009, and more than 15 years later, the evidence has only accumulated."
Today, Zeldin’s EPA plans to release a proposal to revoke the Endangerment Finding, which is the legal & scientific foundation of EPA’s responsibility to limit climate-heating greenhouse gas pollution from major sources.
[image or embed]
— Moms Clean Air Force (@momscleanairforce.org) July 29, 2025 at 12:58 PM
David Bookbinder, director of law and policy at the Environmental Integrity Project, was a lead attorney in the 2007 U.S. Supreme Court case Massachusetts vs. EPA, which affirmed the agency's authority to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act and ultimately led to the endangerment finding two years later.
Bookbinder said Tuesday that "because this approach has already been rejected by the courts—and doubtless will be again—this baseless effort to pretend that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses that cause climate change are not harmful pollutants is nothing more than a transparent attempt to delay and derail our efforts to control greenhouse pollution at the worst possible time, when deadly floods and heat waves are killing more people every day."
In a statement from the Environmental Protection Network, which is made up of ex-EPA staff, Joseph Goffman, former assistant administrator of the agency's Office of Air and Radiation, also cited the 2007 ruling.
"This decision is both legally indefensible and morally bankrupt," Goffman said of the Tuesday proposal. "The Supreme Court made clear that EPA cannot ignore science or evade its responsibilities under the Clean Air Act. By walking away from the endangerment finding, EPA has not only broken with precedent; it has broken with reality."
Aru Shiney-Ajay, executive director of the youth-led Sunrise Movement, responded to the EPA proposal with defiance, declaring that "Donald Trump and his Big Oil donors are lighting the world on fire and fueling their private jets with young people's lives. We refuse to be sacrifices for their greed. We're coming for them, and we're not backing down."
Israel has already summarily rejected the U.K. leader's ultimatum to take "substantive" steps to end the war on Gaza by September, agree to a two-state solution, and reject West Bank annexation.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer was accused of "political grandstanding" after he said Tuesday that his country would recognize Palestinian statehood if Israel did not take ambiguously defined steps to end its war on Gaza—conditions that were promptly dismissed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"Today, as part of this process towards peace, I can confirm the U.K. will recognize the state of Palestine by the United Nations General Assembly in September, unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, agree to a cease-fire, and commit to a long-term sustainable peace, reviving the prospect of a two-state solution," Starmer said during a press conference.
"This includes allowing the U.N. to restart the supply of aid and making clear that there will be no annexations in the West Bank," the prime minister continued, adding that "the terrorists of Hamas... must immediately release all of the hostages, sign up to a cease-fire, disarm, and accept that they will play no part in the government of Gaza."
Member of Scottish Parliament Scott Greer (Scottish Greens-West Scotland) responded to Tuesday's announcement on social media, saying, "Starmer wouldn't threaten to withdraw U.K. recognition of Israel, but he's made recognition of Palestinian statehood conditional on the actions of their genocidal oppressor?"
"Another profoundly unjust act from a Labour government thoroughly complicit in Israel's crimes," Greer added.
British attorney and activist Shola Mos-Shogbamimu asserted that "Keir Starmer knows his time is up and pivots to save his career but it's too late."
"By placing a condition on recognizing Palestine this declaration is performative and disingenuous because before September he can claim Israel has substantively complied with the condition," she added.
Leftist politician and Accountability Archive co-founder Philip Proudfoot argued on social media that "decent" Members of Parliament "need to table a no-confidence motion in Starmer now."
"He has just used the recognition of Palestine as a bargaining chip in exchange for Israel following its BASIC LEGAL OBLIGATIONS," he added. "This is one of the lowest political acts in living memory."
Media critic Sana Saeed said on social media, "Using Palestinian life and future as a bargaining chip and threat to Israel—not a surprise from kid starver Keir Starmer."
Journalist Sangita Myska argued that "rather than threatening the gesture politics of recognizing a Palestinian state (that may never happen)," Starmer should expel Israel's ambassador to the U.K., impose "full trade sanctions" and a "full arms embargo," and end alleged Royal Air Force surveillance flights over Gaza.
Political analyst Bushra Shaikh accused Starmer of "political grandstanding" and "speaking from both sides of his mouth."
Starmer's announcement followed a Monday meeting in Turnberry, Scotland with U.S. President Donald Trump, who signaled that he would not object to U.K. recognition of Palestine.
However, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce called Starmer's announcement "a slap in the face for the victims of October 7," a reference to the Hamas-led attack of 2023.
While the United States remains Israel's staunchest supporter and enabler—providing billions of dollars in annual armed aid and diplomatic cover—Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee have all expressed concerns over mounting starvation deaths in Gaza.
On Tuesday, the U.N.-affiliated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification warned that a "worst-case" famine scenario is developing in Gaza, where health officials say at least 147 Palestinians, including at least 88 children, have died from malnutrition since Israel launched its obliteration and siege of the enclave following the October 2023 attack.
Israel—which imposed a "complete siege" on Gaza following that attack—has severely limited the amount of humanitarian aid that can enter the strip. According to U.N. officials, Israel Defense Forces troops have killed more than 1,000 aid-seeking civilians at distribution points run by the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. IDF troops have said they were ordered to shoot live bullets and artillery shells at aid seekers.
Netanyahu—who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza including murder and weaponized starvation—responded to the U.K. prime minister's ultimatum in a social media post stating, "Starmer rewards Hamas' monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims."
"A jihadist state on Israel's border TODAY will threaten Britain TOMORROW," Netanyahu said. "Appeasement towards jihadist terrorists always fails. It will fail you too. It will not happen."
The U.K. played a critical role in the foundation of the modern state of Israel, allowing Jewish colonization of what was then the British Mandate of Palestine under condition that "nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine," who made up more than 90% of the population.
Seeing that Jewish immigrants returning to their ancestral homeland were usurping the indigenous Arabs of Palestine, the British subsequently prohibited further Zionist colonization. This sparked a nearly decadelong wave of terrorism and other attacks against the British occupiers that ultimately resulted in the U.K. abandoning Palestine and the establishment of Israel under the authority of the United Nations—an outcome achieved by the ethnic cleansing of more than 750,000 Palestinian Arabs.
On the topic of annexing the West Bank, earlier this month, all 15 Israeli government ministers representing Netanyahu's Likud party recommended the move, citing support from Trump. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) found last year that Israel's occupation of Palestine, including the West Bank and Gaza, is an illegal form of apartheid.
Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron said his country would announce its formal recognition of Palestinian statehood during September's U.N. General Assembly in New York. France is set to become the first Group of Seven nation to recognize Palestine, which is currently officially acknowledged by approximately 150 of the 193 U.N. member states.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz subsequently threatened "severe consequences" for nations that recognize Palestine.
Starmer's announcement came on the same day that the Gaza Health Ministry said that the death toll from Israel's 662-day assault and siege on Gaza—which is the subject of a South Africa-led genocide case at the ICJ—topped 60,000. However, multiple peer-reviewed studies in the prestigious British medical journal The Lancet have concluded that Gaza officials' casualty tallies are likely significant undercounts.
"Eric Adams is a complete non-factor in this race," remarked a founding partner of pollster Zenith Research.
A new poll of the New York City mayoral race found that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is very well positioned to win later this year and that former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is only competitive in the race if every other Mamdani opponent drops out.
The survey, which was conducted by polling firm Zenith Research, showed Mamdani holding what Zenith founding partner Adam Carlson described on X as a "commanding" lead of 28 points among likely voters in a five-way race featuring Cuomo, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, Republican Curtis Sliwa, and independent candidate Jim Walden. Even in other scenarios where other candidates drop out of the race, Mamdani would still garner more than 50% of likely votes in each instance.
However, Mamdani's lead becomes much smaller when the poll is expanded to all registered voters, among whom he only holds a three-point advantage over Cuomo in a head-to-head matchup. This suggests that Cuomo has room to grow as long as he can convince Adams, Sliwa, and Walden to exit the race.
Even so, commented Carlson, Cuomo faces significant headwinds that could block his path to victory even if he succeeds somehow in making it a one-on-one race.
"Another thing that’s extremely tough for Cuomo is that 60% of likely voters (as well as 52% of registered voters) would not even consider voting for him," he explained. "Only 32% say they wouldn't consider voting for Mamdani. Cuomo will need to go scorched earth to bring that number up."
New Yorkers who oppose Mamdani will have to place their hopes in the disgraced former governor, given the dismal standing held by incumbent Adams.
"Eric Adams is a complete non-factor in this race," remarked Carlson. "He polls at 7% in the five-way race, 14% if Cuomo drops out, and 32% if Cuomo and Sliwa drop out. More than half of [likely voters] strongly disapprove of his performance and have a very unfavorable view of him. 68% won't consider voting for him."
The poll also found Mamdani with an overall lead among Jewish voters despite efforts by opponents to paint him as antisemitic given his opposition to Israel's war in Gaza and his past reluctance to criticize the slogan "globalize the intifada," which he told The Bulwark he viewed as "a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights." New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, a progressive Jewish ally of Mamdani's who has endorsed his mayoral bid, acknowledged before the election that some Jewish people view the phrase as a threat of violence.
Among likely Jewish voters, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 17 points in a five-way race. Although Cuomo holds a double-digit lead over Mamdani among likely Jewish voters over the age of 45, Mamdani dominates among young Jewish voters by pulling in more than two-thirds of likely Jewish voters between the ages of 18 and 44.