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polling
Gallup Gets the Headline Wrong: Trump’s Poor Scores on the Economy Are the Real Story
The more important story in Gallup’s recent findings is that Independent voters have soured on Donald Trump, with two-thirds disapproving of his economic performance.
Apr 02, 2025
As a self-confessed polling nerd, I have studied polling for decades. One of the more interesting things I have done in my life is worked as an analyst for a prominent Democratic polling firm. There is no organization with a better reputation than Gallup. Founded way back in 1935, Gallup is truly the gold standard. Their nonpartisan reputation is without question. However, Gallup has not been perfect: It predicted New York Gov. Thomas Dewey would beat President Harry Truman back in 1948 and it had Gerald Ford edging out Jimmy Carter back in 1976. Despite these misses, you could always depend on Gallup to uphold the strictest methodological ethics and, even more importantly, they would report their data without any spin. Sometimes I liked what the Gallup reported, other times I did not.
So, when Gallup released new polling data last Thursday, I eagerly clicked on the link. I was wondering if President Donald Trump’s job approval was trending up or down. The headline of the Gallup press release was “Republicans, Men Push Trump Approval Higher in Second Term.” I was perplexed by the sub-header which said “Black, Hispanic adults more approving of Trump in second term, but still disapprove of him overall.”
The point that Gallup is making is that in 2017, 22% of Hispanics approved of Trump’s job performance while now it is 37%. Similarly, Black voters are more positive about Trump now than they were in 2017 (13% vs. 22%). This is a notable trend and one that political analysts need to watch. However, Gallup is missing the bigger point that if Trump wants to make inroads in the Black and Hispanic communities, he has a lot of work to do.
The only problem for Democrats, and it is a big one, is that the party needs to come up with an economic message.
The more important story in Gallup’s findings is that Independent voters have soured on Donald Trump. Fully 61% of Independents disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Independent voters’ feelings about Trump’s job as president are intense—fully 46% strongly disapprove of his performance.
When asked about Trump’s handling of the economy, two-thirds (66%) of Independents disapprove of Trump’s performance.
CNN 2024 exit polling showed that Trump lost Independent voters by 3 percentage points to Harris (49% Harris, 46% Trump). So, if we take voters’ perceptions of Trump’s handling of the economy as a proxy for their intention to vote for the GOP 2028 presidential candidate, it is evident that Republicans have some work to do to win over Independents.
Granted, the 2028 presidential election is years away. However, next year are the midterm elections. Historically, midterm elections go against the party in the White House. Furthermore, the polling that Gallup did does not measure the impact of Trump’s tariffs that will go into effect on April 2. Even the Trump administration has admitted that the president’s economic policies will cause problems in the short-term.
All of this is good news for Democrats. The only problem for Democrats, and it is a big one, is that the party needs to come up with an economic message. They have a real opportunity to take back the economy as an issue among Independents (34% of the 2024 electorate). For all our sake, I hope the party does not miss this opportunity.
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62% of Americans Agree US Government Should Ensure Everyone Has Health Coverage
The new poll shows the highest level of support in a decade for the government ensuring all Americans have healthcare.
Dec 09, 2024
Public sentiment regarding the nation's for-profit healthcare system—an outlier among wealthy nations—has dominated the national news in recent days following last week's killing of an insurance executive in New York.
On Monday, just hours before a suspect in the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was arrested by police, a new Gallup poll found a 62% majority in the U.S. believe the government should ensure all Americans have healthcare coverage—the highest percentage in more than a decade.
Just 42% of people in 2013 believed it was the government's responsibility to make sure everyone in the country had health coverage—a low since the beginning of this century.
The poll found that a majority of Republicans still believe ensuring health coverage is not the government's job, but the majority has shrunk since 2020.
That year, only 22% of Republican voters believed the government should ensure everyone in the country has healthcare, but that number has now grown to 32%.
The percentage of Independents who think the issue is in the government's purview has also gone up by six points since 2020, and Democratic support remains high, currently at 90%.
Americans have vented their frustrations about the current for-profit health insurance system in recent days as police searched for a suspect in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, before arresting Luigi Mangione in Pennsylvania on Monday. Mangione, according to claims by police, was found with a manifesto that railed against the insurance industry.
Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield last week also faced public outcry and was forced to reverse a decision to slash coverage for anesthesia care, with U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) saying the move indicated that "the current system is broken."
"Democrats will regain trust by standing up to special interest insurance companies and fighting for Medicare for All," he said.
President-elect Donald Trump and other Republicans, who are set to control both chambers of Congress starting in January, have indicated that they would go in the opposite direction, working to weaken the popular, government-run Medicare program by promoting Medicare Advantage, which is administered by for-profit companies like United and is already used by half of Medicare beneficiaries.
But one of Trump's top allies, billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, waded into the debate last week about the current healthcare system, questioning why the U.S. pays far more in administrative healthcare costs than other wealthy countries and suggesting Americans don't "get their money's worth."
Another poll released last Friday found Americans' positive opinion of the nation's healthcare quality has declined to its lowest point since 2001, with most agreeing the U.S. system dominated by private insurers has "major problems."
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'People Want Change': Left Wing Sinn Fein Ties for Top Spot in Poll Ahead of Irish Election
The poll marks the first time Sinn Féin has topped ruling party Fine Gael in the Red C survey's history.
Feb 01, 2020
The left-wing Irish party Sinn Fein on Sunday tied for the top spot in national polls ahead of elections on February 8 that will determine which political party will lead the country going forward.
"People want change," the party tweeted Sunday. "Sinn Fein can bring that change."
The Business Post/Red C poll results placed Sinn Fein alongside Fianna Fail with each party holding 24% support from the electorate. Ruling party Fine Gael came in third with 21%. All three are within the margin of error.
\u201cIreland, Red C poll:\n\nSF-LEFT: 24% (+5)\nFF-RE: 24% (-2) \nFG-EPP: 21% (-2)\nGREEN-G/EFA: 7% (-1)\nLAB-S&D: 5% (+1)\nSD-S&D: 3%\nAONT\u00da-*: 2% (+1)\nS-PBP-LEFT: 1% (-1)\n\n+/- vs. 16-22 Jan\n\nFieldwork: 25-30 January 2020\nSample size: 1,000\nPolling average: https://t.co/Pjh0Ruzgg3\n#GE2020\u201d— Europe Elects (@Europe Elects) 1580600610
It's the first time Sinn Fein has been at the top of Red C election polling and the first time it has edged out Fine Gael. Though Sinn Fein has been a major factor in Irish politics for its incompromising stance on reunification with Northern Ireland and its ties to paramilitary Irish liberation group the Irish Republican Army, the party has traditionally struggled to convince voters to allow it to lead the country.
That may be at an end with Sunday's poll. Voters appear ready to end the historical power swapping between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael that has made Ireland effectively have a two-party system of governance for nearly a century since achieving independence from Britain.
"Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have been in power in this state for almost a century," said Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald on Sunday. "They've had it all their own way and they've had their chance."
\u201cWe now have a very real opportunity to end the almost century of FF/FG domination.\n\nV\u00f3t\u00e1il Sinn F\u00e9in #1\n\n#GE2020 @maryloumcdonald\u201d— Sinn F\u00e9in (@Sinn F\u00e9in) 1580645361
McDonald was in talks with Irish state broadcaster RTE to join Fine Gael leader Prime Minister Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin on Tuesday at a debate. McDonald's exclusion from the event had been criticized even before Sunday's polling.
Sinn Fein's rise in the polls was helped along by its policies and the youth vote.
Donegal Sinn Fein Teachta Dala Pearse Doherty told RTE Sunday that the party's messge is winning through to voters.
"The polls are reflecting what we're hearing in our communities, that people want real change," said Doherty.
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