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economy
Look Around: The Signs of a Trump Recession Are Everywhere
The latest signs from the American heartland are not encouraging. The average voter’s confidence about their economic prospects is falling quicker than at almost any other time on record.
Mar 31, 2025
Once you start looking, the signs of an American recession are everywhere.
The second-hand market is heating up, a classic pre-recession indicator. People are unloading luxury goods. Second-hand clothes apps, such as RealReal, Depop and Grailed, are filling up with designer handbags and sneakers bought during the la-la economy of the pandemic. This always happens before a crash.
You might remember that eBay boomed before the 2008 recession. People panic-sold designer handbags faster than you could say Anglo Promissory Note. Splurges always lead to sell-offs.
It looks like 2025 will be the year the pandemic chickens come home to roost. When the plague hit five years ago this week, governments closed down our economies and rather than impoverish workers who were forced to stay home, national treasuries opened the fiscal and monetary spigots. Government spending soared and interest rates were cut to negative territory. About $15 trillion (€13.85 trillion) of fiscal/monetary sweeties were doled out by the world’s richest governments to protect their stay-at-home electorates. (The governments had no choice; a great depression would have accompanied the plague.)
Investment and speculation took off in a splurge of credit, consumption and debt. As sure as night follows day, the credit cycle rolls and we are about to pay a terrible price for the emergency economics of Covid-19.
In tune with our always-on age, the coming American recession will be live-streamed on Instagram. Every small change in consumer confidence and business sentiment will be videoed, shared, commented on and thus amplified. We are witnessing the TikTok-isation of the business cycle, meaning the economic cycle – previously a slow-moving, deliberate phenomenon – will pick up pace, becoming fitful and immediate.
In the past, it took people time to realise that the economic backdrop was changing. Today, with social media and a US president who behaves more like a near-bankrupt day trader than a long-term investor, our collective time horizons have been slashed from years to months, weeks to minutes. The impact of a slowing economy on investment and spending will be almost instantaneous.
The latest signs from the American heartland are not encouraging. The average voter’s confidence about their economic prospects is falling quicker than at almost any other time on record. The litany of surveys pointing to recession, or more accurately a Trump-cession, not to mention the sell-off in American stock markets, suggests we are on the cusp of something enormous. The incoherence of Trump economics – with its on-and-off tariffs – is making already indebted consumers and businesses even more anxious.
Punters across all income brackets are panicking and consumer confidence is collapsing, although it is richer workers who are most worried. This probably reflects the fact that middle-class Americans are heavily invested in the stock markets, which are back to where they were in September and falling farther. Since Trump was inaugurated, the percentage of voters who are worried about their job has shot up from 30 per cent to close to 80 per cent of all those surveyed. The number of consumers worried that businesses might close has spiked up to the highest level since records began in the middle of the 1980-81 recession.
People’s confidence about where their income will be in a year has plummeted to the lowest level since 2009, right after the Great Crash. Worse still, the average American is now more worried about inflation than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic, when prices shot up because of the shutdown of industry.
This combination of a rapidly weakening economy and fear of inflation points to an old enemy not seen since the 1970s: stagflation, where unemployment and inflation rise together. In such an environment, prices rise at the same time as incomes fall. The main trigger is the broad electorate’s understanding that tariffs are a tax on spending that will raise the price of goods for working Americans.
What is going on in corporate America, the part of the economy that was supposed to be boosted by Trump? Earnings are an important leading indicator, as profit squeezes foreshadow lay-offs and investment cuts. Corporate profits surged in 2021 but have now entered a slower growth phase. By the third quarter of 2024, US corporate profits fell 0.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter, the first decline in years. By late 2024, year-on-year profit growth was 5.9 per cent, down from more than 20 per cent in 2023 – this is a huge slowdown in margins.
All the while the nonsense that is Trump’s economic plan continues to be “sane-washed” by many writers and commentators as if there is some brilliant economic rabbit about to be pulled out of a hat by the sages of Mar-a-Lago. Declaring a trade war on your four biggest trading partners – Canada, Europe, China and Mexico – will simply push up American prices, robbing US consumers.
Tariffs are a way of taking something away from somebody. Trade allows better, cheaper products to come in from abroad, putting manners on local crony businesses. Tariffs protect second-rate local businesses, allowing them to sponge off consumers, flogging second-rate goods when punters could be buying superior imported stuff. In the end, tariffs take from buyers and give money to yellow-pack local sellers who can’t compete in the international market. There’s a reason that low tariffs, which have been reduced continuously in the past 50 years, corresponded with the greatest expansion of the global economy ever seen.
Protectionism is a sign of weakness, not strength. Americans are not being “ripped off”; in fact, they are being enriched by having access to better, cheaper, superior products made by more productive people. Rather than being the beginning of a great new era of American prowess, tariffs are a sign of insecurity and fear, marking the end of the great American century that began after the end of the first World War.
The fascinating thing is that the average “Joe Six Pack” American appreciates this; otherwise, why is he so fearful about the future?
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Practicing Civility in the Face of Fascism Is Like Signing One's Own Death Warrant
One confronts fascism head-on and based on solidarity and from a position of strength.
Mar 11, 2025
The United States is a country with a long history of violence and oppression against poor people, women and minorities. And by extension, with authoritarianism. The fact that the Trump presidency poses today a fundamental threat to democracy and social progress is not an unprecedented phenomenon in U.S. history. There have been many other U.S. presidents with anti-democratic approaches while a strong case can be made that minority rule has been the rule rather than the exception in the governing of the nation.
Indeed, for the most part, oligarchy has always had the upper hand in U.S. politics and the economy. After all, this is a nation that was founded on settler colonialism and the elimination of the native and relied on slavery as an engine of economic growth while it never managed to get rid of its racist roots. By the same token, resistance by enslaved people and struggles for emancipation and movements fighting for civil and social rights have also shaped the course of U.S. history. But history is not a linear progression. Every time social progress was made, the forces of reaction plotted to turn back the clock. This is the most obvious underlying intent of the Trump phenomenon and of the far-right movements and parties surging all over the world, now with the support of the world’s richest person, Trump’s Nazi-buddy Elon Musk.
At this point, the key question is this: what can be done to defeat right-wing extremism? In the U.S., defending democratic values and the rights of people from Trump’s neo-fascist politics, especially with the return of white supremacy to mainstream politics, a philosophy of resistance and rebellion needs to operate mainly outside the confines of the liberal political establishment. It is crystal clear that the Democratic Party is incapable of fighting Trump. The sight of Congressional Democrats to Trump’s joint address to Congress holding pathetic little signs and appearing in pink as signs of protest should speak volumes of the devastating failure of the Democratic Party to stop the rise of Trumpism, let alone of coming up now with a fight back strategy against the Führer.
The key question is this: what can be done to defeat right-wing extremism?
It is obvious that a new style of political action is needed in the United States today. The balance of de jure power has shifted dramatically toward an elite characterized by the fusion of wealth and power in the political system that plain resistance alone is not enough. What is needed, even beyond anti-fascism strategies and tactics, is the adoption of new ways to democracy and citizenship.
Indeed, anti-fascist organizing is only useful if it carries within it a vision of a post-capitalist alternative order since fascism has always been a reaction to capitalist crises. After all, fascism does not oppose the logic or the principles of capitalism. In fact, fascism has always been a particular way of “managing capitalism,” as the late Marxist theoretician Samir Amin correctly pointed out.
First, in the fight against fascism, the concept of democracy needs to be reimagined beyond elections and identified, in turn, with self-government and bold ideas to restructure the economy. The Democratic Party of the past 30 years has shown that it is simply incapable of undertaking this mission as it is itself a byproduct of a system in which the few set the terms under which the economy and society operate at large. The notion that a few progressive elected officials can tilt the party to the left in a radical way is a democratic fantasy.
The left needs to make a clean break with the mindset of political compromise that characterizes the Democratic Party.
We need economic democracy—institutions, organizations and practices that break away from the destructive and oligarchical tendencies of the current system and are geared in turn towards meeting workers’ needs, who are the backbone of the economy. Economic democracy starts with dismantling corporate power and extends to nearly every part of the economy—from the workplace to housing and from health to education. Public ownership is key to the idea of economic democracy as a way of transforming economic practices. Hence, we’re talking about forging a radical economic democracy project that can challenge the economic rationality of capital and private appropriation of labor, land and nature.Working with the liberal political establishment to accomplish this mission is yet another democratic fantasy. In fact, progressives keen not only on anti-Trump resistance but also willing to embrace a postcapitalist alternative to oligarchy should make their voices heard in every way possible by letting their elected representatives know that while they despise the Republican Party for what it stands for and what it is doing to the country under Trump-Musk, they do not trust the Democrats when it comes to fighting back and making the right choices for a more humane and just socio-economic order. They should let them know that democracy is much more than elections and surely not about serving special interests. It is about giving political power to ordinary citizens.
Likewise, the project of economic democracy mandates the reconceptualization of citizenship. The notion of confrontational citizenship is of particular import in these dark times as it emphasizes that political change is the result of confrontation, not of compromise. Al Green, a democratic congressman from Texas, practiced confrontational citizenship as an elected official with his outburst during Trump’s speech to Congress. For that, he was forcefully removed from the House Chamber while his Democratic colleagues opted to display “civility” toward the Führer. Eventually, Rep. Green was censured by his colleagues for his lack of "civility," with 10 Democrats joining all Republicans.
Democracy is much more than elections and surely not about serving special interests. It is about giving political power to ordinary citizens.
One does not fight fascism with props as a form of protest. Or unjust wars and invasions by releasing doves. Practicing civility towards fascism is like signing one’s own death. One confronts fascism head-on and based on solidarity and from a position of strength. Yes, confronting fascism requires also courage and not concerns with whether someone’s name is going to end up on a list of “radical leftists” by some reactionary watchdog.
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English as the Official US Language Is a Win for Trump's Culture War, But a Loser for All of Us
Immigrant families are the latest punished in our political—and informational—crisis.
Mar 06, 2025
In her towering 1967 essay, “Truth and Politics,” Jewish philosopher and refugee immigrant to the United States Hannah Arendt wrote, “No one has ever doubted that truth and politics are on rather bad terms with each other.” Nearly 60 years later, President Donald Trump is ensuring this observation becomes a reality — and in the process is putting our immigrant children and economic future at risk.
Our current political crisis is, at base, rooted in an informational crisis, where the facts of any particular matter — public health, climate change, gun violence, et al — only pertain insofar as they are politically useful for the Trump administration.
Above all, we are being forced to live with falsehoods about immigrant families living in the United States. This administration has blamed immigrants for harming the economy, spiking the housing market, and “poisoning” the country.
Say it plain: Not one of these claims is true — not vaguely, not a little, not in part, not kind of, not at all. But, as we are in a moment where political convenience constantly pressures the truth, the Trump administration published an executive order on Saturday, “Designating English as the Official Language of The United States.” This new policy is bad for kids, bad for the U.S.’s immigrant integration system, and bad for our economic present and future.
As its title notes, the order sets English as the country’s official language. But that is largely symbolic, completing a conservative culture war crusade — backed for years by radical groups like ProEnglish and U.S. English and California Republican gubernatorial and senatorial candidate Ron Unz. The U.S. government already conducts essentially all of its business in English.
More consequentially, it rescinds a quarter-century of federal guidance instructing public agencies to take steps to make their programs and services accessible to linguistically diverse communities. Until last weekend, that guidance instructed leaders of public systems to translate written materials and online information — and to interpret audio information and public meetings for non-native English speakers.
This longstanding policy was grounded in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which bans discrimination based on people’s national origins, and was a lynchpin of the country’s approach to integrating immigrant families into U.S. society, culture, communities and the economy. The success of the rescinded guidance wasn’t simply about doing the right thing — ensuring that multilingual communities can fairly access public services — it was also about supporting these communities because their success benefits everyone who lives in this country. Indeed, studies of immigrant families indicate that their children bring valuable languages and cultures to their schools — and benefit when educators engage them (across language differences) as partners.
This is immensely important now, as the country’s immigrants and their children make up the bulk of the growth in the U.S labor force in recent years. Their success in schools today and in the workforce tomorrow is essential to sustaining the country’s economic growth.
Look at what the Trump administration’s new guidance is throwing away. While far from perfect, the United States’ immigrant integration systems perform relatively well compared to similar systems in other countries.
Here’s how that looks in schools: Linguistically diverse children of immigrants are often designated as English learners (ELs), and receive targeted language instruction to help them learn the language while also advancing their academic development. Critically, research shows that the best way to do this is to provide them with bilingual learning opportunities so they are exposed to English while continuing to develop in their home languages.
Over time, as these students learn English, their academic outcomes significantly improve — these “former ELs” reliably become one of the highest-performing student groups in U.S. schools. What’s more, recent research has linked schools’ increased immigrant student enrollment with better academic outcomes for U.S.-born students.
Yet now, the Trump administration has chosen to dismantle public protections ensuring that these students’ families get translated enrollment forms and information about their available school choices. It has chosen to reduce their opportunities to learn about housing, health care, nutrition, and enrichment programs available to their children.
Or maybe it hasn’t? At the end of the order, the White House insists that it requires no “change in the services provided by any agency.” In a political moment where the facts are decreasingly important, perhaps it’s no surprise that the text of this executive order is confusingly at odds with itself.
But, given conservatives’ consistent support for reforms to make children of immigrants’ lives less stable and safe — see, for instance, the administration’s enthusiasm for conducting armed immigration enforcement raids on K–12 campuses — it’s hard to imagine a future where these language access supports persist. In this moment, the maximally cruel outcomes feel like the safest bet.
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