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economy
Stop Pretending Trump Has a Coherent Economic Strategy
It is bad for the country and the world that policy in the United States is being determined by a man child who has no idea what he is doing beyond stuffing his pockets, but that is the reality.
Oct 28, 2025
It is striking that many people feel the need to claim that President Donald Trump has some coherent economic plan for the country. It’s understandable that Trump’s team likes to pretend that his random ramblings and angry acts of revenge are all part of some grand strategy, but why would anyone not on his payroll play along with this obvious absurdity?
To anyone paying attention, it should be pretty clear that Donald Trump is clueless about the economy. Just to take an obvious example to make the point: Trump has repeatedly promised to lower drug prices by 800, 900, or even 1,500%. As he rightly says, no one thought it was possible.
It wouldn’t be a big deal that he got confused once or twice and forgot that you can’t lower prices by more than 100%, unless you envision drug companies paying people to use their drugs. But Trump has done this repeatedly, over many months.
This tells us two things. First, he really doesn’t have even a basic understanding of arithmetic and percentages. That would be bad in and of itself. After all the president is sometimes directly negotiating deals, and it would be bad if he agreed to something and then had to call back his negotiating partner and tell them he didn’t understand what he had agreed to.
There may be a market for thoughtful pieces describing the grand Trump strategy in major intellectual outlets, but that is yet one more example of market failure.
But the other issue is even more serious. Surely people like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Hassett, Trump’s national economic adviser, understand percentages. But apparently, they are too scared of Trump to explain how they work. Instead, they let him go out week after week and make a fool of himself by making nonsensical promises on lowering drug prices.
This fact is crucial if we are trying to assess whether Trump has a coherent economic strategy. The point is he is obviously confused about many things when it comes to the economy. He seems to think that other countries pay tariffs and send the US checks. He also seems to think that wind and solar power are very expensive sources of energy. And he seems to think that the economy was collapsing when he took office.
All of these claims are 180° at odds with reality, but it is extremely unlikely that his aides would be able to correct him on these or other absurd views that Trump seems to hold. Given how out of touch Trump is with reality and the inability of his aides to correct him on anything, why would anyone think that he has a coherent economic strategy?
As many of us have pointed out, even most hardcore free traders will concede tariffs can serve a useful purpose. They can be used strategically to build up important industries. This is what Joe Biden tried to do when he used tariffs, along with subsidies and regulatory changes, to promote domestic production of advanced computer chips, electric vehicles, batteries, and wind and solar and other forms of clean energy.
But what is the coherence in a tariff policy when some of the highest tariffs, like Trump’s 50% tariff on imported steel, are reserved for intermediate goods that are inputs for other manufacturing industries? How does it make sense to impose an extra 10 percentage point tariff on imports from Canada because Trump didn’t like a television ad they ran during the World Series? And India got whacked with a tariff of 50% on its exports because its president would not support Trump’s drive to get a Nobel Peace Prize.
Anyone trying to weave together these and other tariff decisions by Trump, along with many other economic decisions he has made since taking office, is really stretching if they think they can find anything coherent. It is bad for the country and the world that policy in the United States is being determined by a man child who has no idea what he is doing beyond stuffing his pockets, but that is the reality.
There may be a market for thoughtful pieces describing the grand Trump strategy in major intellectual outlets, but that is yet one more example of market failure. There ain’t nothing there.
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The NYT's Myopic Analysis of Trump’s Polling Misses the Story by Centering His Base
Focusing only on GOP voters distorts Trump’s real standing, and his party's chances heading into the midterms.
Oct 02, 2025
The New York Times is an incredibly reliable source for anyone seeking to understand the world we live in. In addition, the Times’ polling partner Sienna College is one of the best and most accurate polling organization. So, I was shocked by the analysis in an article “After Volatile Summer, Trump’s Approval Remains Low but Stable, Poll Finds” by Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik. In their article, Goldmacher and Igielnik argue that:
President Trump’s efforts to send National Guard troops to big cities, punish media organizations, and pressure universities and private businesses are all unpopular with voters. But the continued torrent of policies and tactics has not further weakened Mr. Trump’s overall standing, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University. Instead, Mr. Trump continues to retain the support of roughly nine out of 10 Republican voters. The net result: an unpopular president with an unchanged approval rating of 43 percent.
Now, in all fairness, the Times’ reporting is technically correct. However, it misses the real point: Independent voters have abandoned US President Donald Trump. Saying that Trump is unpopular, but his approval rating is stable is like saying that a student is getting a C minus grade, but he or she has not fallen to a D plus. Let’s look a little deeper into the Times/Sienna College polling.
As the Times reported, 68% of Republican voters strongly approve of Trump’s job performance. On the other hand, 86% of Democrats and 50% of Independent voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Furthermore, just under 1 in 3 of Trump’s base, white non-college voters (31%) strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
Overall, 45% of registered voters say that Trump has made the economy worse while 32% say better and 20% are not sure. A 48% plurality of Independent voters think that Trump has made the economy worse. As other polling has found, Trump’s standing with Hispanic voters continues to drop. The Times/Sienna polling finds that fully 58% of Hispanic voters think Trump has made the economy worse.
Rather than drawing the conclusion that “Trump’s polling is bad, but stable,” the Times could have concluded that: “Fully 43 percent of registered voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance on his key signature issue of immigration.” The second paragraph of the Times story could have easily argued that “Just 39 percent of Independents approve of Trump’s job performance on immigration.”
Another key point that the Times missed was that among Independent voters, a 49% plurality say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 39% say the GOP and 12% are undecided. While the 2026 midterms are a long time for now and lots of things cad and will happen, a 10-point advantage for a generic Democrat is a substantial advantage.
Thus, while it may be true that Trump’s poll numbers have stabilized, they have stabilized at a very low level. Voters are critical of Trump’s stewardship of the economy and far from impressed on his key signature issue of immigration. In what may be the most important piece of data from the Times/Sienna polling, looking toward the 2026 midterm election, Independents are giving the Democrats a substantial advantage.
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WaPo Poll Shows Broad and Deep Disapproval of Trump Across Issue Areas
But Democrats still have to win over voters on key issues.
Sep 23, 2025
Polling from the Washington Post conducted by Ipsos shows that Americans disapprove of US President Donald Trump’s job performance on a wide range of issues by significant margins. At the same time, voters remain wary of the Democrats on key issues.
Fully 55% of registered voters disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance with 46% saying that they strongly disapprove. Sixty percent of female voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance while Independent voters (67% disapprove) render an even harsher judgement. Trump receives his highest scores among his base of white non-college voters (60% approve, 40% disapprove).
On Trump’s signature issue of immigration, 55% disapprove including just under two-thirds of Independents (64%). Once again, Trump’s base of non-college white voters back him on immigration (62% approve).
Trump does even more poorly on his handling of the economy (40% approve, 59% disapprove) than he does overall. A decisive 70% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better.
Even on the issue of crime which the Trump administration has focused on in the last several weeks does not generate any good news for the president. A 54% majority disapprove of his job performance on crime while 44% approve. Trump’s job performance on crime does resonate with voters ages 50 to 64 (54% approve, 45% disapprove).
Trump’s job performance numbers clearly indicate that he has been playing to his base among non-college white voters and ignoring the rest of the electorate. For a candidate who ran on the economy, his economic job performance numbers must be worrying. The logical thing for Trump to do would be to pivot from his focus on crime and immigration and focus on the cost of living. While this is the politically smart thing to do, Trump seems unlikely to take this path. Instead, he will continue to focus on his base. This is a real gamble because it is unlikely that there will be enough non-college white voters to enable the GOP to keep the House in Republican hands.
Fifty-three percent of respondents say that in 2026 they would vote to support Democrats to oppose Trump while 42% say they would vote for the GOP to support Trump’s agenda. Fully 59% of Independents say they would vote Democratic for Congress to oppose Trump’s agenda.
All this so far, is exceptionally good news for the Democrats. However, Democrats still have far to go with voters on key issues. On the question of which political party can best handle the economy, 32% prefer the Democrats, 39% the Republicans, and 28% say neither. A 47% plurality of Independents say neither party while 25% say the Democrats and 26% the Republicans.
On the issue of immigration, Republicans have a clear advantage as 42% of voters prefer the GOP while 29% support the Democrats and 28% say neither. Independent voters offer a very mixed picture on the question of which party can handle immigration (20% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 48% neither).
Thirteen months from the 2026 midterms, Democrats have many things to feel good about in these polling numbers. However, they also face a challenge. Voters do not trust them on immigration and the economy. The Democrats may be able to triumph next year without winning the majority of voters on immigration. It is likely that they will not be able to win without winning voters on both the economy and immigration.
Job No. 1 for the Democrats for the 2026 midterms is to produce an economic message. Given Trump’s poor economic job performance numbers, this would seem an easy task. However, it was something that they failed to do in 2024, and I would argue that it cost them the White House. Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better. If the Democratic Party fails here, they will hand GOP control of Congress for at least two more years. None of us can afford this outcome.
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