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Focusing only on GOP voters distorts Trump’s real standing, and his party's chances heading into the midterms.
The New York Times is an incredibly reliable source for anyone seeking to understand the world we live in. In addition, the Times’ polling partner Sienna College is one of the best and most accurate polling organization. So, I was shocked by the analysis in an article “After Volatile Summer, Trump’s Approval Remains Low but Stable, Poll Finds” by Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik. In their article, Goldmacher and Igielnik argue that:
President Trump’s efforts to send National Guard troops to big cities, punish media organizations, and pressure universities and private businesses are all unpopular with voters. But the continued torrent of policies and tactics has not further weakened Mr. Trump’s overall standing, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University. Instead, Mr. Trump continues to retain the support of roughly nine out of 10 Republican voters. The net result: an unpopular president with an unchanged approval rating of 43 percent.
Now, in all fairness, the Times’ reporting is technically correct. However, it misses the real point: Independent voters have abandoned US President Donald Trump. Saying that Trump is unpopular, but his approval rating is stable is like saying that a student is getting a C minus grade, but he or she has not fallen to a D plus. Let’s look a little deeper into the Times/Sienna College polling.
As the Times reported, 68% of Republican voters strongly approve of Trump’s job performance. On the other hand, 86% of Democrats and 50% of Independent voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Furthermore, just under 1 in 3 of Trump’s base, white non-college voters (31%) strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance.
Overall, 45% of registered voters say that Trump has made the economy worse while 32% say better and 20% are not sure. A 48% plurality of Independent voters think that Trump has made the economy worse. As other polling has found, Trump’s standing with Hispanic voters continues to drop. The Times/Sienna polling finds that fully 58% of Hispanic voters think Trump has made the economy worse.
Rather than drawing the conclusion that “Trump’s polling is bad, but stable,” the Times could have concluded that: “Fully 43 percent of registered voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance on his key signature issue of immigration.” The second paragraph of the Times story could have easily argued that “Just 39 percent of Independents approve of Trump’s job performance on immigration.”
Another key point that the Times missed was that among Independent voters, a 49% plurality say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 39% say the GOP and 12% are undecided. While the 2026 midterms are a long time for now and lots of things cad and will happen, a 10-point advantage for a generic Democrat is a substantial advantage.
Thus, while it may be true that Trump’s poll numbers have stabilized, they have stabilized at a very low level. Voters are critical of Trump’s stewardship of the economy and far from impressed on his key signature issue of immigration. In what may be the most important piece of data from the Times/Sienna polling, looking toward the 2026 midterm election, Independents are giving the Democrats a substantial advantage.
But Democrats still have to win over voters on key issues.
Polling from the Washington Post conducted by Ipsos shows that Americans disapprove of US President Donald Trump’s job performance on a wide range of issues by significant margins. At the same time, voters remain wary of the Democrats on key issues.
Fully 55% of registered voters disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance with 46% saying that they strongly disapprove. Sixty percent of female voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance while Independent voters (67% disapprove) render an even harsher judgement. Trump receives his highest scores among his base of white non-college voters (60% approve, 40% disapprove).
On Trump’s signature issue of immigration, 55% disapprove including just under two-thirds of Independents (64%). Once again, Trump’s base of non-college white voters back him on immigration (62% approve).
Trump does even more poorly on his handling of the economy (40% approve, 59% disapprove) than he does overall. A decisive 70% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better.
Even on the issue of crime which the Trump administration has focused on in the last several weeks does not generate any good news for the president. A 54% majority disapprove of his job performance on crime while 44% approve. Trump’s job performance on crime does resonate with voters ages 50 to 64 (54% approve, 45% disapprove).
Trump’s job performance numbers clearly indicate that he has been playing to his base among non-college white voters and ignoring the rest of the electorate. For a candidate who ran on the economy, his economic job performance numbers must be worrying. The logical thing for Trump to do would be to pivot from his focus on crime and immigration and focus on the cost of living. While this is the politically smart thing to do, Trump seems unlikely to take this path. Instead, he will continue to focus on his base. This is a real gamble because it is unlikely that there will be enough non-college white voters to enable the GOP to keep the House in Republican hands.
Fifty-three percent of respondents say that in 2026 they would vote to support Democrats to oppose Trump while 42% say they would vote for the GOP to support Trump’s agenda. Fully 59% of Independents say they would vote Democratic for Congress to oppose Trump’s agenda.
All this so far, is exceptionally good news for the Democrats. However, Democrats still have far to go with voters on key issues. On the question of which political party can best handle the economy, 32% prefer the Democrats, 39% the Republicans, and 28% say neither. A 47% plurality of Independents say neither party while 25% say the Democrats and 26% the Republicans.
On the issue of immigration, Republicans have a clear advantage as 42% of voters prefer the GOP while 29% support the Democrats and 28% say neither. Independent voters offer a very mixed picture on the question of which party can handle immigration (20% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 48% neither).
Thirteen months from the 2026 midterms, Democrats have many things to feel good about in these polling numbers. However, they also face a challenge. Voters do not trust them on immigration and the economy. The Democrats may be able to triumph next year without winning the majority of voters on immigration. It is likely that they will not be able to win without winning voters on both the economy and immigration.
Job No. 1 for the Democrats for the 2026 midterms is to produce an economic message. Given Trump’s poor economic job performance numbers, this would seem an easy task. However, it was something that they failed to do in 2024, and I would argue that it cost them the White House. Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better. If the Democratic Party fails here, they will hand GOP control of Congress for at least two more years. None of us can afford this outcome.
The evidence is overwhelming. The American economic system is no longer failing by accident; it is succeeding at its new design: concentrating wealth and power for the few while dismantling the foundations of a dignified life for the many.
Nine days ago, I laid out a draft of a pledge akin to Newt’s Contract for America. First, we must agree on what is broken. If you can’t agree on the scale of a crisis, you can never agree on the scale of a solution.
This is my attempt to lay out the first and most important reality, one that so many of us know in our bones but that the establishment continues to deny.
The people in charge—the politicians in Washington, the economists at Hahvahd, the CEOs in boardrooms—all describe a nation that does not exist for most of us. Strongest economy EVER! Record GDP! Look at the MARKET FOLKS! “Real Wages” are up across the board!
Our greatest economic minds reckon we oughta be in awe of the riches that their management has bestowed upon us.
Every official metric tells us we're richer than our parents and grandparents, and that all who have come before us would look at even the poorest among us green with envy. The story goes that even Kings and Queens could only dream of trading their lives for those of trailer park dwellers or Section 8 residents. We're living the dream.
Alas, it’s a lie. A goddamn lie. It's the big lie.
Why does it matter that we share this understanding of reality? Why can’t you think things are okay but need improving? Because this lie paralyzes us. If the prevailing wisdom is to be believed then there is no problem. No need for fundamental shifts in the foundation of our system.
Also, implicit in this lie is that failure is our fault if we struggle financially or socially. It means that if we’re poor, we’re fuck ups that didn’t heed Dave Ramsey’s advice. After all the fantasy of America and the data tell us the same story. America is the land of opportunity. You fail, you suck.
Politicians, voters and non-voters alike all look at the stats to determine a plan of action. Is the good life out there waiting for us?
Unless we share this reality we have no chance in mobilizing the strength to overturn a system that constantly fails us. To overcome the corporations, the billionaires and the yes men in our government that have their boots on our throats economically it’ll take a lot of political will. A lot of political fights. Brave people, terrified people, but united people.
The odds of a child earning more than their parents have fallen from 90% for those born in 1940 to 50% for those born in the 1980s.
People that agree in this simple truth: We are not failing. The system is failing us.
Let's start with what we know in our bones.
Our parents and grandparents could afford a home on one income. Now we struggle on two. Our grandparents raised a family on a factory wage. Today even with a college degree many can't afford daycare. That degree once cost a summer job. Now it's a lifetime of debt.
They want to tell you about personal responsibility, bootstraps, or about the choices you've made. The elite, academics, and CEOs want us to believe that if we’d worked a little harder, gotten a different degree, made a different decision, we’d have risen above it all.
But when an entire generation is locked out of the stability their parents took for granted, the problem isn't the generation—it's the system.
According to a 2017 study we’ve long lost social mobility. We're not better off than our parents. Our kids probably won't be better off than us.
We need to understand that the people telling you otherwise are invested in not seeing the truth. They are tracking the portfolios of the rich instead of the lives of the working. They are celebrating the health of the parasite while the host, you and me, get sicker every year.
You don't need an economics degree to see the crime scene. You just need basic arithmetic.
Housing: In 1950, the median household income was about $3,073 and the median home cost around $7,500. 2.8 times a household’s yearly pay. In 2023, the median household income was $80,610 and the median home cost $430,000 or 5.3 times a household income. No inflation though. Just ask experts.
Keep in mind that more and more homes had two people working full-time. So what once took 2.8 years of income for one worker now requires 5.3 years from TWO. The one-income household is DOA.
Education: In 1973, you could pay for a year of public university tuition (about $400) by working roughly 250 hours at the federal minimum wage ($1.60). Today, with average public university tuition at $11,610, you'd need to work over 1,600 hours at the current minimum wage—most of a full-time job just for tuition. Forget food, rent, or books.
The game has been fundamentally changed. The cost of entry into the middle class now requires a lifetime of debt and labor that was unimaginable two generations ago.
So where did all the prosperity go? It didn't vanish. It was taken. Housing, healthcare, education, transportation, and food make up the bulk of our spending. And corporations have gobbled it up.
A landmark study from the RAND Corporation calculated the scale of the heist. If income had been distributed as equitably as it was from 1945-1975, the bottom 90% of Americans would have earned $79 trillion more over the past 50 years.
That's not a typo. Trillion. With a T.
In 2023 alone, the transfer was $3.9 trillion. That's enough to have given every single worker in America an additional $32,000.
Stop and think about that number. Every American worker in a single year, 2023, was robbed of 32 grand. What would an extra $32,000 have meant for your family last year? A down payment? An end to credit card debt? The ability to see a doctor without checking your bank account first?
That money is our money. It was earned by our labor, our infrastructure, our markets. Then stolen with interest, inflation, and policy choices.
CEO pay exploded from 30-to-1 in 1978 to 290-to-1 today. The top 1% now owns 31% of all wealth—up from 23% in 1989.
Why are people so pissed? Why is xenophobia, homophobia, Islamophobia, racism, on the rise in the West? This is one of the reasons. We’ve spent the last 50 years being mugged with policy. Blaming immigrants or leftists or right wingers and Trump and everyone in between is simpler than acknowledging the truth. They are easier fixes too. Walls, bombs, bullets, and deportations. Much easier than rebuilding an entire economy and society.
How do they hide a crime this massive in plain sight? They build a gaslighting machine “experts say” or “the News” or "economic data."
They use sophisticated, elegant-sounding mathematical formulas to tell us it's raining while they piss all over us.
The official inflation number is their primary weapon, engineered to hide the affordability crisis. Here's exactly how they do it:
"Substitution": When steak gets too expensive, the statisticians quietly assume you now buy hamburger. When hamburger gets too expensive, they assume you switch to chicken. When chicken gets too expensive, it's beans. They are not measuring the cost of living; they are measuring the cost of surviving. By constantly moving the goalposts downward, they report that prices are stable while you are eating worse for more money.
"Hedonic Adjustments": When a new car includes a backup camera that used to be an option, they count that as a price decrease because you're "getting more car for your money." But you can't buy the old, cheaper car anymore. You are forced to pay the full sticker price, while the government reports that your cost of living went down.
"Averaging the Absurd": TVs got 94% cheaper while healthcare costs have tripled since 2000—from $4,900 per person to $14,570. They call it a wash. But you need healthcare to live. A TV is optional. It's like saying "Sure, chemotherapy will bankrupt you, but have you seen the deal on flatscreens?"
The lies, the blatant lies that we're told about our economy, our living situations, are just enraging and offensive.
The $79 trillion heist was never just about cash. They didn't just steal our money; they stole our capacity. They stole our ability to do things, to build, to create, and to care for our own.
We can't build infrastructure projects anymore. We can't complete a high-speed rail system. The road on I-40 between Asheville and my home is still down to two lanes because part of it collapsed into a river, and God knows how many years that'll take to fix.
They've got us in a situation where 54 percent of this country can't read beyond a sixth-grade level, and 20 percent of us are functionally illiterate. At the same time, they tell us we have a 99 percent literacy rate because people can read a sentence.
We are the only developed nation where mothers are three times more likely to die in childbirth than 25 years ago. Our life expectancy is falling.
We are literally sick from the stress, the debt, and the garbage food that's all many can afford. Over 130 million Americans have multiple chronic conditions.
The average family now spends $13,174 annually on transportation—more than double what most people think. Childcare costs average $11,582 per year, often exceeding college tuition. We're spending more on basic necessities than we earn.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' own data shows that families in the bottom 80% spend more than they earn just on necessities—before accounting for anything else. This isn't overconsumption; it's mathematical impossibility sustained only through debt.
They haven't just taken the fruit; they've poisoned the tree. They've left us a nation rich on paper but poor in the real capacity to provide decent lives for our people.
The evidence is overwhelming. The American economic system is no longer failing by accident; it is succeeding at its new design: concentrating wealth and power for the few while dismantling the foundations of a dignified life for the many.
This is the rot beneath the floorboards of our democracy. This is the economic carnage that fuels the political chaos. January 6th, Minnesota, Kirk, Pelosi...
Trump’s election victories were outlandish. They were the predictable consequences of telling a drowning country that it's not even wet. When you gaslight people about their own lives for long enough, they will eventually burn the whole thing down. Blame anyone they can find—an immigrant from Guatemala, some trans kid, whomever—because the people who actually robbed us live in walled-off communities or a yacht in the Mediterranean. We're not running into them at the grocery store.
We have a choice. We can keep pretending. We can keep tweaking the machine that's grinding us into dust. Or we can admit the truth. The experiment failed. The system is broken. It's time to build something new.
We have a choice. We can keep pretending. We can keep tweaking the machine that's grinding us into dust. Or we can admit the truth. The experiment failed. The system is broken. It's time to build something new. An economy where we build things again. An economy where one job is enough to raise a family. An economy where the goal is the prosperity of our people, not the fiction of our spreadsheets.
We did this before, from 1933 to 1975. We can do it again. But first, we gotta stop lying about where we are and how we got here.
Our eyes aren’t lying to us. The spreadsheets are.
Help spread a shared reality. Share this. Post it on social media. Restack it. Forward it. And comment on the thoughts below.
Did any of these numbers or comparisons surprise you? Which ones stood out most? If you were explaining this to a friend, which example would you start with? What’s the best way to show people that the system is failing us—not that we’re failing as individuals? If you could put just one chart, story, or fact on a billboard in your town, what would it be?
For the economists reading this: The data supporting these claims comes from Carter C. Price's extension of the RAND wage divergence study (WR-A516-2, 2025), Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts (WFRBST01134), Census Historical Income Tables (P-60 series), NCES Digest of Education Statistics, BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys via FRED (CXUTRANSLB0101M), CDC National Vital Statistics Reports, Commonwealth Fund maternal mortality analyses, NAEP Reading Assessment data, and Chetty et al.'s work on intergenerational mobility (Science, 2017). The productivity-compensation gap documented by EPI, the PCE deflator biases analyzed by the Boskin Commission, and the hedonic adjustment critiques from Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi all support the core thesis: our measurement systems systematically obscure declining affordability and eroding living standards for the bottom 90% of Americans.