The NYT's Myopic Analysis of Trump’s Polling Misses the Story by Centering His Base

The New York Times is an incredibly reliable source for anyone seeking to understand the world we live in. In addition, the Times’ polling partner Sienna College is one of the best and most accurate polling organization. So, I was shocked by the analysis in an article “After Volatile Summer, Trump’s Approval Remains Low but Stable, Poll Finds” by Shane Goldmacher and Ruth Igielnik. In their article, Goldmacher and Igielnik argue that:

President Trump’s efforts to send National Guard troops to big cities, punish media organizations, and pressure universities and private businesses are all unpopular with voters. But the continued torrent of policies and tactics has not further weakened Mr. Trump’s overall standing, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena University. Instead, Mr. Trump continues to retain the support of roughly nine out of 10 Republican voters. The net result: an unpopular president with an unchanged approval rating of 43 percent.

Now, in all fairness, the Times’ reporting is technically correct. However, it misses the real point: Independent voters have abandoned US President Donald Trump. Saying that Trump is unpopular, but his approval rating is stable is like saying that a student is getting a C minus grade, but he or she has not fallen to a D plus. Let’s look a little deeper into the Times/Sienna College polling.

As the Times reported, 68% of Republican voters strongly approve of Trump’s job performance. On the other hand, 86% of Democrats and 50% of Independent voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Furthermore, just under 1 in 3 of Trump’s base, white non-college voters (31%) strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance.

Overall, 45% of registered voters say that Trump has made the economy worse while 32% say better and 20% are not sure. A 48% plurality of Independent voters think that Trump has made the economy worse. As other polling has found, Trump’s standing with Hispanic voters continues to drop. The Times/Sienna polling finds that fully 58% of Hispanic voters think Trump has made the economy worse.

Rather than drawing the conclusion that “Trump’s polling is bad, but stable,” the Times could have concluded that: “Fully 43 percent of registered voters strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance on his key signature issue of immigration.” The second paragraph of the Times story could have easily argued that “Just 39 percent of Independents approve of Trump’s job performance on immigration.”

Another key point that the Times missed was that among Independent voters, a 49% plurality say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 39% say the GOP and 12% are undecided. While the 2026 midterms are a long time for now and lots of things cad and will happen, a 10-point advantage for a generic Democrat is a substantial advantage.

Thus, while it may be true that Trump’s poll numbers have stabilized, they have stabilized at a very low level. Voters are critical of Trump’s stewardship of the economy and far from impressed on his key signature issue of immigration. In what may be the most important piece of data from the Times/Sienna polling, looking toward the 2026 midterm election, Independents are giving the Democrats a substantial advantage.