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The tax bill approved by the House Ways and Means Committee on November 9 is fiscally irresponsible. The bill would cost nearly $1.5 trillion over the decade, according to Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates. But provisions in the bill that would phase in slowly or expire after several years obscure the bill's true cost and would almost certainly drive the ultimate cost even higher.
The tax bill approved by the House Ways and Means Committee on November 9 is fiscally irresponsible. The bill would cost nearly $1.5 trillion over the decade, according to Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates. But provisions in the bill that would phase in slowly or expire after several years obscure the bill's true cost and would almost certainly drive the ultimate cost even higher.
Further, the costs would continue beyond the ten-year window shown in the official cost estimates, adding substantially to the nation's debt burden. A new analysis by Penn Wharton economists that also takes into account the bill's effects on the economy and the interest burden from higher debt levels estimates that it would add roughly $3 trillion to the debt between 2018 and 2037.
Today's tax debates are taking place in a substantially different fiscal environment than when past tax cuts were debated. Compared to 1981, when the Reagan tax cuts were passed, and 2001, when the Bush tax cuts were enacted, revenues today are lower and the debt held by the public is considerably higher, measured as a percent of the economy. (See Figure 1.)
In 2001, the federal government was running a surplus, the federal debt was shrinking, and large surpluses were forecast for the coming decade. Today's fiscal outlook is the opposite.And the budget outlook is vastly different, particularly compared to when the 2001 Bush tax cuts were being considered.[1] In 2001, the federal government was running a surplus, the federal debt was shrinking, and large surpluses were forecast for the coming decade. Today's fiscal outlook is the opposite: deficits are growing and the debt is projected to rise from today's 77 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 91 percent in 2027, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), due to rising health care and other costs associated with the retirement of baby boomers, as well as the significant ongoing costs of the Bush tax cuts. (See Figure 2.)
Despite these looming fiscal pressures, congressional Republican leaders have abandoned their earlier pledges to pursue revenue-neutral tax reform. Instead, they're aggressively advancing a costly tax cut. Together, the bill's revenue loss and associated debt service costs would add $1.7 trillion to deficits and debt between 2018 and 2027, and would bring the debt to 97 percent of GDP by 2027.
The bill's cost is almost certainly understated in these estimates, however, because two of its major provisions would sunset (i.e., end) in 2023, in order to artificially hold down the bill's cost so that it complies with the rules established in the fiscal year 2018 congressional budget resolution, which restrict the size of the tax cut in this bill to $1.5 trillion over ten years.[2] These two provisions are:
A new $300 non-refundable tax credit for non-child dependents. This provision helps protect many middle-income people from facing a tax increase due to other provisions in the bill, such as the elimination of the personal exemption. But under the bill, this provision is slated to expire in 2023. That's a major reason that the number of people facing tax increases would rise over time, according to the JCT estimates. In response, Chairman Brady and other Republican lawmakers have said explicitly that policymakers would come back and extend the provision before it expires[3] -- essentially acknowledging that the scheduled expiration of this tax credit in 2023 is a budget gimmick.
A generous deduction for business investments. The bill would let businesses deduct the cost of certain investments -- such as in factories and equipment-- in the year in which they're made, instead of following the current practice of deducting their cost over time as the factories and equipment wear out (i.e., as they "depreciate" or decline in value). This provision, known as "full expensing," would start immediately but then expire in 2023. With full expensing removed, businesses would pay more in tax than they would otherwise, as they couldn't deduct depreciation costs on investments they've already fully expensed. That's one of the main reasons that the JCT estimates show the bill's business provisions causing a tax increase on businesses in 2023.[4] Policymakers would very likely extend this provision, just as they have extended similar so-called "temporary" provisions that give businesses more generous deductions for investments in buildings and equipment.[5]
While there are no JCT estimates of the cost of extending these two provisions, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that continuing them after their expiration in 2023 would add roughly $400 billion to the cost of the bill over the decade.[6] These additional costs and the associated debt service would boost the debt-to-GDP ratio to 99 percent by 2027.
The bill's cost will continue beyond 2027, adding to the nation's debt for years to come, a new analysis by economists at the University of Pennsylvania's Penn Wharton Budget Model finds.[7] The Bush tax cuts -- which were first enacted in 2001 and then mostly made permanent following the "fiscal cliff" debate at the end of 2012 -- provide an important lesson, as they represent a permanent loss of revenue that continues to add to the debt. (See box.) The cost of the Bush tax cuts, as amended, from 2001-2018 accounts for about one-third of the entire $15 trillion debt held by the public in 2018, we estimated in a 2013 study.[8]
Supporters of the House tax bill often claim that its positive effects on the economy will counter its large revenue losses, effectively removing any impact on the deficit. But the Penn Wharton estimates conclude otherwise. They estimate that the bill would increase the size of the economy above current projections by between 0.33 percent and 0.83 percent by 2027 -- meaning it would only add between 0.04 percent and 0.1 percent to economic growth each year, on average. Further, the Penn Wharton study concludes that "this small boost fades over time, due to rising debt. By 2040, GDP may even fall below current policy's GDP."[9] Even after taking the bill's growth effects into account, Penn Wharton finds it would add roughly $3 trillion to the debt in the next ten-year period (2028-2037) beyond the official budget window.
Other estimates, such as those by the Tax Foundation, show higher economic growth effects from the House bill than Penn Wharton.[10] But the Tax Foundation's estimating model relies on assumptions that are well outside the economic mainstream. [11] For instance, the Tax Foundation makes very aggressive assumptions about how certain tax changes affect decisions to work, save, and invest and thereby generates outsized estimates of the responses to various tax policy changes. It also ignores any impact of unpaid-for tax cuts on budget deficits and debt; in contrast, CBO and JCT assume, based on the empirical evidence, that higher deficits lead to a reduction in national savings and investment, ultimately lowering future economic output compared to what it otherwise would be. Yet even with these larger growth effects, the Tax Foundation still shows that the bill would fall far short of paying for itself, adding $1 trillion to deficits over the first ten years. (President Trump's Council of Economic Advisers also claims that a tax cut like the House bill would have large growth effects, particularly on workers' wages, but mainstream economists have sharply criticized those estimates as being highly implausible.[12])
The tax bill is being considered under the special budget "reconciliation" process, but different rules apply to reconciliation bills in the House and Senate. In particular, certain rules, named after former Senator Robert Byrd, apply to Senate consideration of reconciliation bills.a
For example, while both houses have the same reconciliation instruction directing that the bill cannot cost more than $1.5 trillion over the 2018-2027 period, the two chambers face different requirements in the period after 2027. In the House, there are no restrictions on revenue losses after the ten-year window. But, in the Senate, one part of the Byrd rule prohibits an increase in the deficit in any year after 2027. Thus, the House bill as it now stands -- which has large revenue losses beyond the ten-year window, as the Penn Wharton analysis shows -- would violate the Senate's Byrd rule, which requires 60 votes to waive.
The Senate will need to take steps to address these out-year costs to avoid a Byrd-rule violation. The 2001 Bush tax cuts faced the same out-year problem, and policymakers chose to finesse it by sunsetting all of the provisions in the bill before the end of the ten-year window. That sunset, however, was an artificial constraint on the long-run cost of the Bush tax cuts. Policymakers subsequently continued the vast majority of the tax cuts on a permanent basis, rather than let them expire. When assessing the cost of any tax-cut bill that includes sunsets purely to comply with budget rules, history suggests that a much clearer picture of the bill's long-run effects requires assuming that policymakers will extend most or all the provisions beyond their sunset dates and likely make them permanent.
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is one of the nation's premier policy organizations working at the federal and state levels on fiscal policy and public programs that affect low- and moderate-income families and individuals.
"Launching chaotic trade wars with our allies and gutting Social Security, Medicaid, and other vital programs in order to fund tax breaks for his billionaire donors isn't making life more affordable for working-class families."
A former Obama administration economic adviser said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve's forecast of increased unemployment, accelerating inflation, and slower growth driven by President Donald Trump's economic policies could portend a return of the "stagflation" that plagued the nation in the 1970s.
The Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets U.S. monetary policy, downgraded its economic outlook for 2025 from an initial projection of 2.1% growth to 1.7%. FOMC also revised its inflation forecast upward from 2.5% to 2.8%.
While FOMC said that "recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace," the committee noted that "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased."
Fears of an economic slowdown or even a recession have increased dramatically since Trump took office and imposed tariffs on some of the nation's biggest trade partners while moving to gut critical social programs in order to fund a $4.5 trillion tax cut that will overwhelmingly benefit wealthy Americans.
"Inflation has started to move up now. We think partly in response to tariffs and there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a Wednesday news conference, at which he said interest rates will remain unchanged. "The survey data [of] both household and businesses show significant large rising uncertainty and significant concerns about downside risks."
The economic justice group Groundwork Collaborative said the FOMC projections show that "Trump is steering our economy toward disaster," while warning of the possible return of stagflation, a combination of low or negative economic growth and inflation.
Alex Jacquez, the chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative and a former adviser at the White House National Economic Council during the Obama administration, said in a statement that "the Federal Reserve's projections confirm what millions of Americans are already thinking: President Trump is steering our economy toward disaster."
"Voters elected President Trump to lower the cost of living, and instead, they continue to be saddled with persistently high inflation and interest rates," Jacquez continued. "Launching chaotic trade wars with our allies and gutting Social Security, Medicaid, and other vital programs in order to fund tax breaks for his billionaire donors isn't making life more affordable for working-class families. It is, however, a perfect recipe for stagflation."
Trump's economic policies—which some observers believe could be designed to deliberately tank the economy so that the ultrawealthy can buy up assets at deep discounts—have sent consumer confidence plummeting. Meanwhile, recent polls have revealed that a majority of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy and inflation.
The latest FOMC forecast came as the world braces for yet another escalation of Trump's trade war, with the president threatening to implement worldwide reciprocal tariffs starting April 2.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said Monday that Trump's trade war is likely to slow economic growth in the United States and around the world.
"The global economy has shown some real resilience, with growth remaining steady and inflation moving downwards," OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. "However, some signs of weakness have emerged, driven by heightened policy uncertainty."
"Increasing trade restrictions will contribute to higher costs both for production and consumption," Cormann added. "It remains essential to ensure a well-functioning, rules-based international trading system and to keep markets open."
"We truly urge policymakers, stakeholders, and the public to see these executive orders for what they truly are: an unnecessary and counterproductive retreat to outdated energy strategies."
On the first day of his second term, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he was fulfilling his campaign promise to "drill, baby, drill" by declaring a "national energy emergency." The declaration seeks to spur the "identification, leasing, development, production, transportation, refining, and generation" of every energy source except for wind, solar, battery storage, and improved efficiency.
But what exactly does this mean, and how much damage could it do to local communities, energy prices, the global climate, and the nation's leadership in the green energy transition? Quite a lot, a panel of energy policy experts warned on Wednesday.
"These executive orders and this administration are sending us down exactly the wrong path," said senior attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center Megan Gibson. "By attempting to fabricate a national energy emergency, these orders set the stage toward increased fossil fuel extraction, transmission, use, and export. This is all over cleaner, more affordable technologies that we have and are commercially scalable."
Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen's Energy Program, warned that "the threat is extremely real, and here right now, that Trump is going to seek to push unneeded fossil fuel projects."
Trump gave himself a major tool to accomplish this in the declaration by evoking national security. Specifically, Section 7 orders Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to conduct an assessment of the department's access to the energy needed to "protect the homeland" and present it within 60 days, or by March 21. The report should examine any vulnerabilities, with a special emphasis on the Northeast and West Coast, where local and state Democratic governments have rejected new fossil fuel projects on climate grounds.
While Trump tried to use national security justifications to speed fossil fuel development during his first term, he was stymied in part by opposition within government agencies. That is less likely to be the case now.
"There is no question that when you add national security designations to civilian energy infrastructure projects, you're putting in the crosshairs any civil servant or citizen who seeks to deviate from Trump's line."
"He has now purged agencies of opposition and has much firmer control over the national security apparatus that he's going to need to use national security justifications for this energy emergency declaration," Slocum said.
Therefore, Hegseth's report could be used to, for example, claim that the energy needs of military bases in the Northeast require the revival of the Constitution pipeline that would bring fracked gas from Pennsylvania to New York, which state leaders had previously rejected.
"This is about a larger issue of attacking parts of the country that didn't vote for him and parts of the country that also have enacted a number of laws and regulations promoting action on climate change and promoting renewables," Slocum said. "And so this is part of a general attack on state leadership of those states that he sees as not being accommodating enough to fossil fuels."
At the same time, the emergency declaration could be used as part of a negotiating tactic with Democratic state leaders. To take New York as an example again, Trump might persuade Gov. Kathy Hochul to accept the Constitution pipeline in exchange for allowing offshore wind or ending opposition to congestion pricing.
"Trump will either force his agenda upon unwilling states, or he will use it as a club to bully them into doing it as part of a horse-trading maneuver," Slocum said.
Using the national security justification could also make it easier for the administration to crack down on not only civil society protests against these projects, but stubborn opposition from local leaders as well. Even elected officials who pushed back, Slocum warned, could be labeled terrorists.
"There is no question that when you add national security designations to civilian energy infrastructure projects, you're putting in the crosshairs any civil servant or citizen who seeks to deviate from Trump's line," he said.
Another provision of the emergency declaration being monitored by advocates is Section 4, which calls on heads of agencies to alert the Army Corps of Engineers to projects they want to see prioritized. The Corps plays an important role in issuing 404 permits for any infrastructure that is built through or beneath a body of water. It also has the authority to rush its permitting process—including by waving or truncating a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review—in the case of an emergency.
Shortly after Trump's declaration, the Army Corps listed several "emergency"-designated projects on its website. However, David Bookbinder, director of law and policy at the Environmental Integrity Project, pointed out, "none of those projects, not a single one, meets the Corps' own definition of what an emergency is."
The Corps can rush a project through only if not doing so poses an immediate threat to life, property, or economic well-being, and it has historically only done so in the aftermath of natural disasters such as floods or hurricanes.
"In the long run, the question is how many times is the Corps going to make groups sue them?"
"No one has ever tried to speed up permitting on the basis of a national energy emergency, let alone a clearly fictitious one," Bookbinder said.
The Army Corps immediately removed the emergency designations of projects on its website once they were discovered, and groups including Bookbinder's have filed Freedom of Information Act requests with the Corps to find out what projects other agencies have told it to fast-track. Those requests are due around the beginning of April.
"As soon as they try permitting one of these projects, cutting the corners and speeding up a permit by designating it as, quote, an emergency, that permit will be challenged," Bookbinder said. "And in the long run, the question is how many times is the Corps going to make groups sue them?"
In the long-term, advocates say, the administration may attempt to use the Corps' ability to rush "emergency" projects in order to bypass NEPA altogether, ignore court orders that try to stop it, and undermine agencies that push back. While the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is supposed to be independent, for example, Trump on Tuesday fired the two Democratic commissioners on the Federal Trade Commission.
"We are very concerned that should Trump perceive any roadblocks at FERC to his energy emergency declaration that he would have no qualms forcibly removing independent FERC commissioners from their seats and replace them with compliant commissioners," Slocum said. "So this is not bluster."
Ultimately, Slocum added, "we are in an era right now where the only norm is Trump is going to violate it."
While the Trump administration is trying to rush through fossil fuel projects, the panelists were clear that his energy agenda will not benefit the majority of U.S. communities and ratepayers.
"If we continue down this path, this self-destructive path, we will miss out on an opportunity to build a vibrant, sustainable energy economy that benefits all Americans, that will actually secure our national energy independence, and would position our country for long-term economic success," Gibson said.
So who will benefit? The clue comes in part in a closed-door meeting the Trump administration held with oil and gas executives in the White House, also on Wednesday.
"Advocates must keep challenging approvals through litigation and public pressure—making the case that the project can and should be denied if there is no genuine need or if adverse impacts are overwhelming."
"After spending $450 million in the last election to elect Trump and install friendly lawmakers on Capitol Hill, fossil fuel executives are getting what they paid for," Slocum said in a statement about the meeting. "We know precisely what the oil industry will do with decreased costs stemming from Trump's deregulation: They will pocket the savings and shower executives and wealthy investors with bonuses and dividends."
"Under Trump, fossil fuel corporations will accelerate the transfer of wealth from consumers to billionaires while exposing millions of Americans to more pollution and delaying the transition to clean energy for as long as possible," he continued.
Slocum further told Common Dreams that "the fossil fuel industry's close ties to Trump and key Trump officials will play a role in decisions Trump has made and will continue to make on the energy emergency declaration and implementation."
Gibson said the emergency declaration was "perpetuating a pattern where major fossil fuel corporations reap substantial profits while the American public and communities have to deal with rising energy prices, higher utility bills, a weakened domestic energy system, not to mention extreme and lasting harms to our communities and our health."
In response, she called on "unlikely partners and coalitions to push for a modern, democratically grounded energy policy that benefits the public."
'It's essential that we continue to hold regulators accountable: Many of FERC's decisions have disregarded states' and communities' objections. Advocates must keep challenging approvals through litigation and public pressure—making the case that the project can and should be denied if there is no genuine need or if adverse impacts are overwhelming," she said.
"We truly urge policymakers, stakeholders, and the public to see these executive orders for what they truly are: an unnecessary and counterproductive retreat to outdated energy strategies," Gibson said. "The real emergency here isn't a lack of fossil fuel extraction, transmission, or export. It's lack of vision and courage, and competent governance to embrace the modern clean energy economy we know we need and deserve."
"We will not be silenced," the green group said in response to the verdict.
This is a developing story... Please check back for possible updates...
Climate campaigners swiftly sounded the alarm on Wednesday after a North Dakota jury awarded Energy Transfer and its subsidiary more than $660 million in the fossil fuel giant's case targeting Greenpeace for protests against the Dakota Access crude oil pipeline.
While Energy Transfer called the verdict a "win... for the people of Mandan and throughout North Dakota," environmentalist Jon Hinck condemned it as a "travesty of justice."
Hinck and others argue the case against Greenpeace International and two of its entities in the United States is a strategic lawsuit against public participation (SLAPP) intended to intimidate opponents of climate-wrecking fossil fuel projects.
OUTRAGE: A Big Oil-stacked jury just sided with corporate power, slapping Greenpeace with millions in damages for standing with Indigenous water protectors against DAPL. This is a dangerous attack on the right to protest, but the fight is not over. apnews.com/article/gree...
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— Center for Constitutional Rights ( @ccrjustice.org) March 19, 2025 at 6:04 PM
"This case should alarm everyone, no matter their political inclinations," saidSushma Raman, interim executive director of Greenpeace's U.S. entities, in a statement. "It's part of a renewed push by corporations to weaponize our courts to silence dissent. We should all be concerned about the future of the First Amendment, and lawsuits like this aimed at destroying our rights to peaceful protest and free speech. These rights are critical for any work toward ensuring justice—and that's why we will continue fighting back together, in solidarity. While Big Oil bullies can try to stop a single group, they can't stop a movement."
As The New York Timesreported Wednesday:
Greenpeace had maintained that it played only a minor part in demonstrations led by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe. It had portrayed the lawsuit as an attempt to stifle oil industry critics, but a jury apparently disagreed.
The nine-person jury in the Morton County courthouse in Mandan, North Dakota, about 45 minutes north of where the protests took place, returned the verdict after roughly two days of deliberating.
Addressing the legal loss on social media, Greenpeace International vowed that "we will not be silenced."
🚨BREAKING🚨 The trial verdict is in. A jury in the Morton County courthouse found Greenpeace International and two Greenpeace entities in the United States liable for over US$ 660 million combined in Energy Transfer’s meritless SLAPP lawsuit. #WeWillNotBeSilenced
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— Greenpeace International 🌍 ( @greenpeace.org) March 19, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Greenpeace International executive director Mads Christensen echoed that sentiment and pointed to U.S. President Donald Trump's second term as a danger to people and the planet. As the advocacy leader put it: "We are witnessing a disastrous return to the reckless behavior that fueled the climate crisis, deepened environmental racism, and put fossil fuel profits over public health and a livable planet. The previous Trump administration spent four years dismantling protections for clean air, water, and Indigenous sovereignty, and now along with its allies wants to finish the job by silencing protest."
Asked by The Associated Press if Greenpeace plans to appeal just after the verdict, senior legal adviser Deepa Padmanabha said, "We know that this fight is not over."
While the case has sparked fears that a loss in court could end Greenpeace, Padmanabha told AP that the globally known group's work "is never going stop." The adviser added, "That's the really important message today, and we're just walking out and we're going to get together and figure out what our next steps are."
I hate it here. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/c...
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— Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they) (@doctorvive.bsky.social) March 19, 2025 at 4:19 PM
An independent trial monitoring committee said in a statement that the verdict "reflects a deeply flawed trial with multiple due process violations that denied Greenpeace the ability to present anything close to a full defense."
Marty Garbus, a longtime First Amendment lawyer who is part of the committee, said: "In my six decades of legal practice, I have never witnessed a trial as unfair as the one against Greenpeace that just ended in the courts of North Dakota. This is one of the most important cases in American history."
"The law that can come down in this case can affect any demonstration, religious or political. It's far bigger than the environmental movement. Yet the court in North Dakota abdicated its sacred duty to conduct a fair and public trial and instead let Energy Transfer run roughshod over the rule of law," he added. "Greenpeace has a very strong case on appeal. I believe there is a good chance it ultimately will win both in court and in the court of public opinion."
Greenpeace International general counsel Kristin Casper later said in a statement that "Energy Transfer hasn't heard the last of us in this fight. We're just getting started with our anti-SLAPP lawsuit against Energy Transfer's attacks on free speech and peaceful protest. We will see Energy Transfer in court this July in the Netherlands."
As the
Times detailed, the global group "this year had countersued Energy Transfer in the Netherlands, invoking a new European Union directive against SLAPP suits as well as Dutch law."