May, 05 2017, 03:00pm EDT
Analysis Uncovers "Nearly $2 Billion in Errors" in Peabody's Misleading Study About the Future of NGS
Continuing to run the biggest coal-burning power plant in the West is a far greater economic threat than Peabody’s “wishful thinking” led decision-makers to believe
WASHINGTON
A detailed analysis of a presentation made by Peabody Energy at an April 7 meeting of the Arizona Corporation Commission highlights major discrepancies and misleading information about the reality of continuing to run the largest coal-burning power plant in the West past the 2019 closure date set by its owners.
The analysis was conducted by utility research firm Synapse Energy Economics at the request of the Sierra Club to evaluate questionable claims made by Peabody and its consultant, Navigant Research, about the future of the 2,250-megawatt Navajo Generating Station in northern Arizona.
"Navigant's assessment of the economic viability of Navajo is opaque, and relied on overstated market energy prices and substantially understated fuel prices for Navajo. Reviewing the elements of Navigant's assessment, we find substantial problems mounting up to nearly $2 billion in errors, faulty assumptions and exclusions."
After reverse-engineering key assumptions in their study, Synapse determined that Peabody and Navigant:
Relied on overblown assumptions about coal and market energy prices in 2030, when in fact, Navigant's own analysis shows little benefit for NGS unless the coal market recovers, which most energy industry analysts consider highly unlikely.
Consistently underpriced coal in their calculations. Using more realistic coal pricing projections through 2040 would add about $620 million in costs to running NGS, "completely erasing Navigant's assumed benefit for Navajo."
Completely ignored operations and maintenance expenses tied to running NGS as if they didn't exist, when in fact industry norms and actual operator data from the past five years show that O&M costs can be quite substantial.
Aggressively over-inflated market energy prices starting in 2030 to make NGS electricity seem more lucrative. Navigant and Peabody unrealistically project that energy prices will rise roughly three times faster than inflation.
Applied market dynamics that are not at all relevant to Western energy markets. The North American Reliability Council expects Arizona and New Mexico to remain flush with energy capacity through at least the mid-2020s, meaning there simply is no liquid market for capacity in the West, unlike the Midwest and East Coast. Yet Peabody and Navigant inexplicably applied market pricing that is 46 times higher than actual market prices in the Midwest, where there actually is a market based on constrained capacity.
Peabody's hasty and unsubstantiated Powerpoint presentation was delivered to the ACC just three days after the company exited from bankruptcy. It claimed that all four utility owners of NGS - Salt River Project, Arizona Public Service, Tucson Electric Power and NV Energy - were misguided in announcing their intention earlier this year to retire the plant at the end of 2019, and possibly as soon as this year. The owners have concluded that they can acquire power far more cheaply on the open market and that they risk losing hundreds of millions of dollars a year if they continue to operate NGS.
Peabody operates the Kayenta mine, the sole supplier of coal for NGS, and is searching for ways to keep its mine open in the wake of its bankruptcy, including using taxpayer subsidies to lower the costs of running NGS. Despite repeated requests, it has yet to share the underlying analysis it used in its ACC presentation to sidestep the fundamental economic problems facing coal, which is in sharp decline as cleaner and cheaper energy sources replace it in the market.
The Arizona Corporation Commission is scheduled to hold its next open hearing on May 9-10. This meeting is open to the public and can be streamed from: https://www.azcc.gov/divisions/broadcastservices/livebroadcast.htm
Sandy Bahr, director of the Sierra Club's Grand Canyon Chapter, issued the following statement:
"Arizonans want public officials and coal companies to be honest with them about the future of the Navajo Generating Station and the Kayenta Mine. Peabody's unsubstantiated statements that the coal plant is an economic and reliable source of energy for the region going forward is simply not true. It's time to be realistic about the future of coal in Arizona so that the Navajo and Hopi people are not left behind or left with a big mess when coal inevitably leaves the communities."
Percy Deal, from Navajo group Dine CARE, issued the following statement:
"Continuing to operate the Navajo Generating Station is not a long-term solution for the Navajo and Hopi, who for the last 50 years have seen this plant wreck the environment, rob us of our water, and leave us without the resources to build a sustainable economy. Peabody is obviously only interested in its own corporate bottom line and not in the economic and environmental wellbeing of the Navajo and Hopi."
Nicole Horseherder, of To Nizhoni Ani, issued the following statement:
"The only real path to support the Navajo Nation long-term is to back a transition plan that invests in renewable energy and job creation, cleans up and remediates the pollution the plant and mine have left behind, takes care of our water and environment, and addresses the health impacts our families have suffered as a result of using coal. Using an intentionally misleading analysis to argue for the plant to stay open is the opposite of helping the Navajo and Hopi."
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Gore Calls Out Fossil Fuel Industry 'Shamelessness' in Lying to Public
"They are continuing to do similar things today to try to fool people and pull the wool over people's eyes just in the name of greed," the former vice president said.
Mar 17, 2024
In reflecting on nearly 50 years of climate advocacy, former Vice President Al Gore said that he had "underestimated" the greed of the fossil fuel industry.
The remarks came in an interview published in USA Today on Sunday. When asked if he had any regrets, Gore responded that he had "put every ounce of energy" he had into climate advocacy, but added:
"I was pretty slow to recognize how important the massive funding of anti-climate messaging was going on. I underestimated the power of greed in the fossil fuel industry, the shamelessness in putting out the lies."
"They are continuing to do similar things today to try to fool people and pull the wool over people's eyes just in the name of greed," Gore continued.
"What's at stake is so incredible."
Gore, who tried to raise awareness about the climate crisis in the U.S. House of Representatives as early as 1981 and brought the issue to national attention in 2006's documentary An Inconvenient Truth, has taken a harsher tone against oil, gas, and coal companies in recent months. In August 2023, he said that the "climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis," and in September, he implored the industry to "get out of the way." In December, he lamented that the industry had "captured the COP process," referring to the appointment of the United Arab Emirates national oil company CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber to preside over the United Nations' COP28 climate conference in that country.
In the USA Today interview, Gore also named the fossil fuel industry when asked about his greatest frustration.
"Well, that we haven't made more progress," Gore answered, "and that some of the fossil fuel companies have been shameless in providing, continuing to provide lavish funding for disinformation and misinformation."
"What's at stake is so incredible," he added.
However, Gore told USA Today that he tried not to focus on his anger, but instead on continuing to raise awareness about the crisis and what can be done about it. And he remained hopeful that his grandchildren would live in a world in which people had come together and acted in time.
"We've got all the solutions we need right now to cut emissions in half before the end of this decade," he said. "We've got a clear line of sight to how we can cut the other 50% of emissions by mid century."
He also encouraged more people to get involved with the climate movement.
"I would say the greatest need is for more grassroots advocates because the most persuasive advocates are those in your own community," he said.
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'North Sea Fossil Free': Activists in 6 Countries Protest 'Unhinged' Oil and Gas Development
"Going full steam ahead with new North Sea oil and gas is a sure fire route to the worst climate scenarios," one campaigner said.
Mar 16, 2024
Climate activists in six North Sea countries came together on Saturday to carry out acts of civil disobedience in protest of their governments' continued fossil fuel development.
Demonstrators in the United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands blockaded roads, ports, and refineries; dropped banners; and held solidarity concerts as part of the North Sea Fossil Free campaign to demand that their governments align their plans for the shared body of water with the Paris agreement goal of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
"For too long, the U.K., Norway, and other North Sea countries have avoided scrutiny for their oil drilling plans as the emissions are not included in their national inventories," a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion U.K. told Common Dreams. "Going full steam ahead with new North Sea oil and gas is a sure fire route to the worst climate scenarios."
"The only serious response we can make is for citizens to unite, but we need to see many many more people doing this work."
The day of action, which was organized by Extinction Rebellion (XR), came days after a new report from Oil Change International revealed that none of five North Sea countries—Norway, the U.K., the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark—have plans consistent either with limiting warming to 1.5°C or with the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels reached at last year's United Nations COP28 climate conference. If the five countries were counted as one, they would be the seventh biggest producer of oil and gas in the world.
In particular, these governments continue to issue permits to explore for and develop oil and gas fields, despite the fact that the International Energy Agency has said that no new fossil fuel development is compatible with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. In one high-profile example, the U.K. approved the undeveloped Rosebank oil field in September 2023. Taken together, these permits could lead to more than 10 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions.
The worst offenders were Norway and the U.K., which could be among the top 20 developers of oil and gas fields through mid-century if they do not change course.
"The five major North Sea countries are at a crossroads: One path leads toward global leadership in climate action and green industries, where they take bold action to phase out oil and gas production that creates sustainable jobs and communities. The other path leads to catastrophic climate change, economic crisis, and the loss of status as climate leaders globally, as they cling to outdated practices while the world moves forward," Silje Ask Lundberg, North Sea campaign manager at Oil Change International, said when the report was released.
Extinction Rebellion co-founder Clare Farrell said that the North Sea governments' policies were a betrayal of their citizens and the world following the hottest year on record.
"Temperatures have tracked 1.5°C above average recently, almost 2°C," Farrell said. "Our global commitments, such that they are, are being flushed away with no regard for what the public really want. Where's the consent for that here in our democracies? No government has a mandate to do that. So people deserve to know that our governments are willfully destroying everything. The people of these North Sea nations have not consented to destroying civilization, but that's what is going to happen. Their governments are unhinged and unchecked."
Saturday's protests, Farrell continued, were a way for the people in these countries to make their voices heard.
"The only serious response we can make is for citizens to unite, but we need to see many many more people doing this work," Farrell said. "Direct action like this should shake us awake; our governments will destroy democracy and society if we let them continue, that's the course we are on, and they are redoubling their efforts despite the facts and knowing how much suffering they are already causing all over the world as climate breaks down."
The demands of Saturday's protests were threefold: An end to new oil and gas infrastructure in the North Sea, for governments to tell the truth about the realities of the climate crisis, and for the countries to pursue a just transition to renewable energy. In addition, many activists made additional demands specific to their nations' policies.
The Netherlands
In the Netherlands, activists with Extinction Rebellion and Scientist Rebellion blocked all roads and railways leading to the largest oil refinery in Europe: Shell's Pernis refinery. They targeted Shell because the oil major has received new permits to drill in the Victory Gas Field and has also restarted its drilling in the Pierce Field. What's more, the company has refused to clean up its aging equipment in the North Sea, leaving old pipelines and drilling platforms to rust and pollute the sea with mercury, polonium, and radioactive lead. While there are 75 aging Shell oil and gas platforms in the Dutch North Sea that should be removed by 2035, current efforts are not on track to meet this deadline.
"Like the rest of the fossil industry, Shell is only interested in profits and shareholder returns," said Bram Kroezen of XR Netherlands, adding that Shell's appeal of a landmark court ruling ordering it to reduce emissions showed that the company "completely lacks a moral compass."
Germany
Activists with Ende Gelände blocked off access to a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in the port of Brunsbüttel, Germany, beginning at 9:00 am local time. The activists are calling for an end to LNG imports, as new science reveals the so-called "bridge" fuel may in fact be at least as damaging to the climate as coal due to previously unaccounted for methane leaks.
"LNG is a double climate killer," Rita Tesch, spokesperson for Ende Gelände, said in a statement. "Because it consists of methane. Methane is even more harmful to the climate than carbon dioxide. It escapes into the atmosphere during transportation by LNG ships and at terminals such as here in Brunsbüttel, and heats it up rapidly. The carbon dioxide from burning it is on top of that. It's clear: LNG imports are a climate crime!"
Norway
Activists with XR Norway targeted Rafnes Petroleum Refinery, with some blockading access on land while another group entered the security area by boat.
"I'm ashamed to be a Norwegian," XR Norway spokesperson Jonas Kittelsen said in a statement. "Norway profits massively from aggressively expanding our oil and gas sector, causing mass suffering and death globally. My government portrays us as better than the rest of the world, which we are not."
Denmark
Performance collective Becoming Species and Extinction Rebellion Denmark worked together to stage a creative protest targeting the oil company Total Energies, which is the leading oil and gas producer in the Danish North Sea and currently has plans to reopen "Tyra Feltet," Denmark's largest gas field. Four members of the band Octopussy Riot climbed a Total-owned container and staged a punk concert in Denmark's Esbjerg Harbor.
"We octopuses have formed the band Octopussy Riot and have arrived here to play our song, a demand for you two-legs to stop oil and gas extraction," performer Linh Le, said. "The sea is dying, our climate collapsing. We will not accept that the most rich and powerful destroy our home. We do not want to go extinct."
Sweden
Members of XR Sweden blocked the road to Gothenburg's Oil Harbor, where the group has been protesting since May of 2022. The activists called on Sweden to stop investing in the harbor and on city officials to develop a plan to dismantle the harbor and refineries.
"Twenty-two million tons of oil enter Gothenburg's port every year, which is owned by the city," one activist said. "There is no plan for decommissioning. This does not go together with the climate goals."
Scotland
Finally, protesters across Scotland stood in solidarity with the other actions with performances and banner drops. In Aberdeen, activists unfurled banners outside the offices of Equinor, which owns 80% of Rosebank, and Ithaca, which owns the remaining 20%. The banners read, "North Sea Fossil Free," "Stop Rosebank," and "Sea knows no borders." In Dundee, protesters targeted the Valaris 123 oil platform off the coast with banners. Shetland Stop Rosebank also brought signs to Lerwick Harbor, from where the first stage of Rosebank's development is launching. XR Forres organized a performance of the group the "oil slicks" along the Moray Firth, to demonstrate what an oil spill would do to its unique coastal landscape.
"All countries should align their drilling plans with the Paris agreement now," the XR U.K. spokesperson said. "We thank everyone who has taken action today in defense of a livable planet."
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One-Third of Children Under 2 in Northern Gaza Now Acutely Malnourished
"Malnutrition among children is spreading fast and reaching devastating and unprecedented levels in the Gaza Strip due to the wide-reaching impacts of the war and ongoing restrictions on aid delivery," UNICEF said.
Mar 16, 2024
Around one-third of children under two in northern Gaza are now suffering from acute malnutrition, the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund announced on Friday.
That's double the percentage of children under two who suffered from acute malnutrition in January, as the rate jumped from 15.6-31% in one month.
"The speed at which this catastrophic child malnutrition crisis in Gaza has unfolded is shocking, especially when desperately needed assistance has been at the ready just a few miles away," UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said in a statement.
"The situation is beyond catastrophic."
The UNICEF data came from screenings it conducted with its partners in February. While the rates of malnutrition are higher in the north, no part of Gaza remains untouched. As a whole, the agency concluded that "malnutrition among children is spreading fast and reaching devastating and unprecedented levels in the Gaza Strip due to the wide-reaching impacts of the war and ongoing restrictions on aid delivery."
A full 28% of children in Khan Younis in central Gaza have acute malnutrition, while in Rafah, around 10% suffered from acute malnutrition by the end of February. That was also double the 5% who suffered from acute malnutrition in January in the southern city. In the north, as many as 25% of children under five also suffer from acute malnutrition, up from 13%. The new figures come as humanitarian groups and U.N. agencies have been warning about potential famine in the Gaza Strip for months.
UNICEF also found in February that 4.5% of children in shelters and health centers in northern Gaza suffer from severe wasting, the most serious and potentially fatal form of malnutrition, for which the necessary treatment is not on hand. In Khan Younis, more than 10% of the malnourished children have severe wasting. Even in Rafah, the number of children under two with severe wasting more than quadrupled from 1% to over 4% between January and the end of February.
In total, at least 23 children have died from starvation or dehydration in northern Gaza in the last few weeks alone, UNICEF said. Israel's bombardment and invasion of Gaza has been particularly devastating for children as a whole, killing around 13,450 out of a total death toll of more than 31,000, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
"We've been sounding the alarm that children will die due to malnutrition and disease since the beginning of the war," Save the Children UK said on social media on Saturday. "Our worst fears have now come true. These man-made conditions continue to deteriorate toward famine and will continue to take innocent children's lives."
Lucia Elmi, UNICEF's special representative in the Palestinian territories, toldThe New York Times that children were declining at such alarming rates because the available water, bread, and flour was not enough to provide the nutrition they need.
"They need protein, they need vitamins, they need fresh products, and they need micronutrients, and all of this has been completely missing," Elmi said last week. "That's why the deterioration has been so fast, so rapid, and at this scale."
Dominic Allen, the United Nations Population Fund representative for Palestine, told reporters on Friday that everyone he spoke to Gaza was "gaunt, emaciated, hungry."
"The situation is beyond catastrophic," he said.
Russell said that UNICEF had not been able to acquire the supplies it needed to properly treat malnourished children. Humanitarian groups have criticized Israel for making aid deliveries more difficult by searching every truck that enters the strip and rejecting whole shipments because they contained items like children's scissors or wooden instead of cardboard boxes for toys. In multiple instances, the Israeli military has fired on on aid convoys and on people gathering to receive aid, killing scores.
"We have repeatedly attempted to deliver additional aid and we have repeatedly called for the access challenges we have faced for months to be addressed. Instead, the situation for children is getting worse by each passing day. Our efforts in providing life-saving aid are being hampered by unnecessary restrictions, and those are costing children their lives," Russell said.
Ultimately, Russell continued, the only way to properly feed and treat Gaza's children is for Israel to stop its attack on the strip.
"An immediate humanitarian cease-fire continues to provide the only chance to save children's lives and end their suffering," Russell concluded. "We also need multiple land border crossings that allow aid to be reliably delivered at scale, including to northern Gaza, along with the security assurances and unimpeded passage needed to distribute that aid, without delays or access impediments."
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