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US Food Prices Rise

Shoppers look at a canned fish display November 4, 2025 at the Market 32 Supermarket in South Burlington, Vermont. Food prices have increased nearly 30% since 2020 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

(Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)

Welcome Back Inflation! Thanks to Trump, Soon You’ll Be Bigger Than Ever!

When Americans hurt by the rising cost of living believed Donald Trump, they made a big mistake.

In 2024, candidate Donald Trump promised that “a vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper.”

Prices will come down,” he vowed, “and they’ll come down fast, with everything.”

“When I win,” he pledged, “I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One.”

Trump never said how he would accomplish this wonder because, in fact, he had no idea. And he didn’t care.

Trump did not campaign on the promise, “I will raise prices, but it will all be for the best.” For Trump, the “art of the deal” was bait and switch: promise lower prices, deliver higher prices.

Surprise! Surprise! Prices did not come down “fast,” “immediately,” “starting on Day One,” or at all. They’re moving in the other direction.

In the nine months since Trump took office, here’s what’s happened to prices:

  • Electricity + 7%
  • Natural gas + 6%
  • Gasoline + 6%
  • Beef (groundchuck) + 13%
  • Oranges + 15%
  • Bananas + 9%

In fairness, chicken prices are the same, eggs are down, and bread is 2% cheaper. If all you eat are egg salad sandwiches, you’ll do fine under President Trump. (But hold the mayo–the mayonnaise producer price index is up 4% over the year).

Inflation is surging–and soon will get much worse. Trump’s mass deportation crusade and his tariff mania are destined to sharply increase the cost of living.

Deporting millions of law-abiding, hard-working undocumented immigrants is economic lunacy and can only drive up prices.

Undocumented immigrants are half of the agricultural workforce. In a recent Federal Register filing, Trump’s Labor Department admits that his immigration policies have brought on “acute labor shortages” that pose “immediate dangers to the American food supply.” There is now a “risk of supply shock-induced food shortages” leading to “higher prices” for food.

In a back-handed compliment to undocumented immigrants, the Labor Department acknowledges that “agricultural work requires a distinct set of skills and is among the most physically demanding and hazardous occupations in the US labor market.”

“Despite rising wages," the department noted, "such jobs are still not viewed as viable alternatives for many [U.S.-born] workers.”

A California grower explains what a labor shortage looks like: “If 70% of your workforce doesn’t show up, 70% of your crop doesn’t get picked and can go bad in one day. Most Americans don’t want to do this work.” The outcome: “price hikes for consumers.”

Not just food prices. Undocumented immigrants are a major part of the workforce in construction, meat-packing, food processing, hospitality, and transportation. Eliminating immigrant labor means more shortages and higher prices.

Trump’s “beautiful tariffs” make things still worse. A tariff is a sales tax on the cost of everything purchased from overseas–shoes made in Vietnam, shirts and pants from Bangladesh, smartphones and toys from China, aluminum and lumber from Canada, auto parts from Mexico, coffee from Brazil, and bananas from Guatemala.

Eliminating immigrant labor means more shortages and higher prices.

The business that buys these goods pays the tariff and adds the tax to its price. If it is Canadian lumber that bears a 25% tariff, the 25%–as the National Association of Home Builders has pointed out–is a cost for builders and makes houses less affordable. If it is tomatoes from Mexico with a 17% tariff, Safeway will charge you more.

“Overall, Americans now face an average tariff rate of 17.4%... an increase estimated to cost households an extra $2,300 in 2025,” reports CNBC.

What’s the point? Trump believes increasing the cost of imports will make US manufactures cheaper by comparison. But under a tariff economy, everything actually becomes more expensive, not less.

The cost of American cars will go up under Trump’s tariffs because cars include tariff-burdened imported steel, aluminum, and part made abroad.

In theory, clothing manufacture could be returned to the U.S.A. from poor countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Ethiopia, where workers earn pennies an hour. But with US wages, apparel would become unaffordable: $126 to $207 for a woman’s shirt and $234 to $324 for a pair of jeans, Marketplace calculates.

Many tariffs are simply pointless. The US doesn’t have the right climate for growing coffee, so making coffee 20% more expensive will not create US coffee plantations and jobs.

Trump did not campaign on the promise, “I will raise prices, but it will all be for the best.” For Trump, the “art of the deal” was bait and switch: promise lower prices, deliver higher prices. American consumers will remain Trump’s victims unless we resist his tariff lunacy and immigration brutality.

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