New Research: UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil Undermine Climate Leadership with Massive Fossil Fuel Plans

New research by Oil Change International shows COP Troika nations – previous, current, and next COP presidents UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil – plan to expand oil and gas production 32% by 2035, threatening the climate limits they have collectively pledged to protect.

While Global North countries such as the United States remain the biggest expanders of oil and gas production and have the responsibility and the means to lead in phasing out fossil fuels, the Troika countries have a special duty to lead by example. These three nations chose to host climate talks and have repeatedly committed to submitting 1.5°C-aligned Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while urging all countries to do so. They must establish the benchmark that 1.5°C-aligned NDCs must include a clear plan to end new oil, coal, and gas projects, as backed by science.

• The projected increase in oil and gas production by 2035, the end date of the NDCs due next year, is 36% for Brazil, 34% for the UAE, and 14% for Azerbaijan. Globally, fossil fuel production must decline by 55% by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the International Energy Agency.
• Together, the Troika nations account for nearly one-third of the carbon pollution at risk from newly approved oil and gas fields in 2024. Despite leading the COP28 agreement to phase out fossil fuels, the UAE leads the world in approving new oil and gas expansion since December 2023 – including one project set to operate until 2100, half a century past the global 2050 phase-out deadline. Brazil, which under President Lula has called on countries to do more to fight climate change, ranks third for 2024.
• While the Troika’s expansion plans raise concerns, Global North countries remain the biggest expanders of oil and gas in the long-run. Previous Oil Change International research shows just five Global North countries – the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom – are on track to be responsible for around 50% of carbon pollution from new oil and gas fields and fracking wells through to 2050.

A Troubling Disparity Between Commitments and Actions

At COP28, all countries pledged to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, equitable, and orderly manner. The COP Troika have also publicly committed to submitting 1.5°C-aligned climate plans (NDCs) ahead of COP29 next month. However, these nations’ expansion plans contradict the urgent need to halt new fossil fuel developments. To limit warming to the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement, all countries must immediately end the approval of new coal, oil, and gas projects, and entrench this commitment in their NDCs due in early 2025.

Global North Countries Must Lead the Phaseout of Fossil Fuels But Expansion Needs to End Everywhere

While the Troika’s expansion plans raise concerns, Global North countries remain the biggest expanders of oil and gas. Previous Oil Change International research shows just five Global North countries – the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom – are on track to be responsible for around half of the carbon pollution from new oil and gas fields and fracking wells through to 2050. These countries must immediately end oil, gas, and coal expansion, phase out existing production rapidly, and provide grant and grant-equivalent finance to Global South nations to enable a just energy transition. Without immediate action from these rich oil and gas producers, achieving a fair and equitable global phaseout of fossil fuels will meet a deadlock.

While Global North producing countries have a responsibility to lead the phaseout of fossil fuels, the science to avoid breaching 1.5°C is clear: the hard limits of the world’s remaining carbon budget mean that fossil fuel expansion must stop everywhere, including in the countries forming the so-called COP Troika.

Strong New Climate Finance Target Needed at COP29

The upcoming UN climate talks in Baku will be critical to ensure countries make the next key step in implementing the COP28 decision on fossil fuels – funding a fair phaseout. Climate experts have said the success of COP29 depends on nations agreeing to a new climate finance target (NCQG) of at least $1 trillion every year, which must include a subgoal of at least $300 billion annually for mitigation finance. This will allow countries to adopt national climate plans in 2025 that immediately end oil, gas, and coal expansion. Grant-based and highly concessional financing, not more debt-inducing loans, is an urgent need to fulfill the landmark COP28 decision to phase-out fossil fuels, especially for adaptation, loss and damage, and key mitigation projects in the Global South. Rich countries have the means to mobilize well over $5 trillion a year for climate action at home and for the NCQG, including by ending fossil fuel handouts, making big polluters pay, and changing unfair global financial rules.

Azerbaijan, as COP29 president, must guide the success of these negotiations in securing a strong NCQG. As the countries steering the current COP process, the Troika has a unique responsibility to set ambitious global climate targets, and set the precedent for truly 1.5°C-aligned national climate plans. The Troika countries have a clear choice to make. Halting new fossil fuel projects would begin to align COP Troika nations with 1.5°C goals, while ignoring expansion in NDCs would betray climate commitments.

Shady Khalil, Global Policy Senior Strategist at Oil Change International, said:

“The COP Troika was created to generate collaboration and ambition in support of the 1.5°C temperature limit, and the science is indisputable: there is no room for fossil fuel expansion if we are to meet this goal. By pushing forward with massive new fossil fuel projects, the Troika risks undermining the goal they are supposed to be the guardians of and set a terrible example for other countries currently working on their NDCs. While the Global North must lead by phasing out first and providing the financial support other countries need to implement a just transition, the Troika’s contradictory actions threaten to erode global trust and weaken climate efforts. They stand at a crossroads – either honor the science and lead a true and fair fossil fuel phaseout, or continue down a path that endangers a livable future and jeopardizes their legacy. The only way to ensure NDCs are 1.5°C-compatible is to halt new fossil fuel expansion everywhere.”

Shereen Talaat Founder and Director at MENA FEM Movement, said:

“The expansion of fossil fuel production by the Troika countries is a major obstacle to achieving the 1.5°C climate goal. Given the historical responsibility of the Global North on the crisis, it’s imperative that these nations not only need to halt new projects but also develop clear plans to phase out existing production in a just and equitable manner. This crisis demands immediate action, and the Troika countries must lead the way in accelerating the transition to renewable energy; they can demonstrate their commitment to a sustainable future and inspire other nations to follow suit. However, if they continue to expand their oil and gas production, they risk undermining their own credibility and jeopardizing the future of our planet.”

Claudio Angelo, head of International Policy at Observatório do Clima, said:

“Each of the world’s major fossil fuel producers is gambling on being the last seller of oil and gas. This is a Russian roulette that will either roast the planet or result in massive stranded assets. And while it is obvious that planet-wreckers like the United States, Norway, Canada, and Australia must be the first to phase out, Troika countries must live up to their own said commitment to 1.5°C and stop expansion now. The Troika is supposed to lead by example, but looking at their massive fossil expansion plans, it becomes clear that the only example they are setting is how to greenwash oneself away from climate action.”

Ilan Zugman, Latin America Director at 350.org, said:

“Fossil fuels do not equate to development, nor can they meet the ambition required for the 1.5°C threshold. The Brazilian and other Troika governments must confront this misconception. For Brazil to lead the global energy transition, its updated NDC must commit to ending new fossil fuel projects and provide a plan to phase out existing ones. It should also allocate resources to triple global renewable energy capacity. To advance energy justice, Brazil must ensure solar power reaches vulnerable communities. As COP30 host and a G20 leader, Brazil is in a prime position to set this precedent.”