October, 30 2024, 08:27am EDT
New Research: UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil Undermine Climate Leadership with Massive Fossil Fuel Plans
GLOBAL
New research by Oil Change International shows COP Troika nations – previous, current, and next COP presidents UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil – plan to expand oil and gas production 32% by 2035, threatening the climate limits they have collectively pledged to protect.
While Global North countries such as the United States remain the biggest expanders of oil and gas production and have the responsibility and the means to lead in phasing out fossil fuels, the Troika countries have a special duty to lead by example. These three nations chose to host climate talks and have repeatedly committed to submitting 1.5°C-aligned Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while urging all countries to do so. They must establish the benchmark that 1.5°C-aligned NDCs must include a clear plan to end new oil, coal, and gas projects, as backed by science.
- The projected increase in oil and gas production by 2035, the end date of the NDCs due next year, is 36% for Brazil, 34% for the UAE, and 14% for Azerbaijan. Globally, fossil fuel production must decline by 55% by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the International Energy Agency.
- Together, the Troika nations account for nearly one-third of the carbon pollution at risk from newly approved oil and gas fields in 2024. Despite leading the COP28 agreement to phase out fossil fuels, the UAE leads the world in approving new oil and gas expansion since December 2023 – including one project set to operate until 2100, half a century past the global 2050 phase-out deadline. Brazil, which under President Lula has called on countries to do more to fight climate change, ranks third for 2024.
- While the Troika’s expansion plans raise concerns, Global North countries remain the biggest expanders of oil and gas in the long-run. Previous Oil Change International research shows just five Global North countries – the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom – are on track to be responsible for around 50% of carbon pollution from new oil and gas fields and fracking wells through to 2050.
A Troubling Disparity Between Commitments and Actions
At COP28, all countries pledged to transition away from fossil fuels in a just, equitable, and orderly manner. The COP Troika have also publicly committed to submitting 1.5°C-aligned climate plans (NDCs) ahead of COP29 next month. However, these nations’ expansion plans contradict the urgent need to halt new fossil fuel developments. To limit warming to the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement, all countries must immediately end the approval of new coal, oil, and gas projects, and entrench this commitment in their NDCs due in early 2025.
Global North Countries Must Lead the Phaseout of Fossil Fuels But Expansion Needs to End Everywhere
While the Troika’s expansion plans raise concerns, Global North countries remain the biggest expanders of oil and gas. Previous Oil Change International research shows just five Global North countries – the U.S., Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom – are on track to be responsible for around half of the carbon pollution from new oil and gas fields and fracking wells through to 2050. These countries must immediately end oil, gas, and coal expansion, phase out existing production rapidly, and provide grant and grant-equivalent finance to Global South nations to enable a just energy transition. Without immediate action from these rich oil and gas producers, achieving a fair and equitable global phaseout of fossil fuels will meet a deadlock.
While Global North producing countries have a responsibility to lead the phaseout of fossil fuels, the science to avoid breaching 1.5°C is clear: the hard limits of the world’s remaining carbon budget mean that fossil fuel expansion must stop everywhere, including in the countries forming the so-called COP Troika.
Strong New Climate Finance Target Needed at COP29
The upcoming UN climate talks in Baku will be critical to ensure countries make the next key step in implementing the COP28 decision on fossil fuels – funding a fair phaseout. Climate experts have said the success of COP29 depends on nations agreeing to a new climate finance target (NCQG) of at least $1 trillion every year, which must include a subgoal of at least $300 billion annually for mitigation finance. This will allow countries to adopt national climate plans in 2025 that immediately end oil, gas, and coal expansion. Grant-based and highly concessional financing, not more debt-inducing loans, is an urgent need to fulfill the landmark COP28 decision to phase-out fossil fuels, especially for adaptation, loss and damage, and key mitigation projects in the Global South. Rich countries have the means to mobilize well over $5 trillion a year for climate action at home and for the NCQG, including by ending fossil fuel handouts, making big polluters pay, and changing unfair global financial rules.
Azerbaijan, as COP29 president, must guide the success of these negotiations in securing a strong NCQG. As the countries steering the current COP process, the Troika has a unique responsibility to set ambitious global climate targets, and set the precedent for truly 1.5°C-aligned national climate plans. The Troika countries have a clear choice to make. Halting new fossil fuel projects would begin to align COP Troika nations with 1.5°C goals, while ignoring expansion in NDCs would betray climate commitments.
Shady Khalil, Global Policy Senior Strategist at Oil Change International, said:
“The COP Troika was created to generate collaboration and ambition in support of the 1.5°C temperature limit, and the science is indisputable: there is no room for fossil fuel expansion if we are to meet this goal. By pushing forward with massive new fossil fuel projects, the Troika risks undermining the goal they are supposed to be the guardians of and set a terrible example for other countries currently working on their NDCs. While the Global North must lead by phasing out first and providing the financial support other countries need to implement a just transition, the Troika’s contradictory actions threaten to erode global trust and weaken climate efforts. They stand at a crossroads – either honor the science and lead a true and fair fossil fuel phaseout, or continue down a path that endangers a livable future and jeopardizes their legacy. The only way to ensure NDCs are 1.5°C-compatible is to halt new fossil fuel expansion everywhere.”
Shereen Talaat Founder and Director at MENA FEM Movement, said:
“The expansion of fossil fuel production by the Troika countries is a major obstacle to achieving the 1.5°C climate goal. Given the historical responsibility of the Global North on the crisis, it’s imperative that these nations not only need to halt new projects but also develop clear plans to phase out existing production in a just and equitable manner. This crisis demands immediate action, and the Troika countries must lead the way in accelerating the transition to renewable energy; they can demonstrate their commitment to a sustainable future and inspire other nations to follow suit. However, if they continue to expand their oil and gas production, they risk undermining their own credibility and jeopardizing the future of our planet.”
Claudio Angelo, head of International Policy at Observatório do Clima, said:
“Each of the world’s major fossil fuel producers is gambling on being the last seller of oil and gas. This is a Russian roulette that will either roast the planet or result in massive stranded assets. And while it is obvious that planet-wreckers like the United States, Norway, Canada, and Australia must be the first to phase out, Troika countries must live up to their own said commitment to 1.5°C and stop expansion now. The Troika is supposed to lead by example, but looking at their massive fossil expansion plans, it becomes clear that the only example they are setting is how to greenwash oneself away from climate action.”
Ilan Zugman, Latin America Director at 350.org, said:
“Fossil fuels do not equate to development, nor can they meet the ambition required for the 1.5°C threshold. The Brazilian and other Troika governments must confront this misconception. For Brazil to lead the global energy transition, its updated NDC must commit to ending new fossil fuel projects and provide a plan to phase out existing ones. It should also allocate resources to triple global renewable energy capacity. To advance energy justice, Brazil must ensure solar power reaches vulnerable communities. As COP30 host and a G20 leader, Brazil is in a prime position to set this precedent.”
Oil Change International is a research, communications, and advocacy organization focused on exposing the true costs of fossil fuels and facilitating the ongoing transition to clean energy.
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"Not a 'Joke.' It's Fascism": Trump Says He Wouldn't Mind Journalists Getting Shot
The Republican nominee also said during the same rally in Pennsylvania that he "shouldn't have left" the White House after losing the 2020 election.
Nov 04, 2024
During a rally on the final Sunday before the presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump told an audience gathered in the battleground state of Pennsylvania that he wouldn't mind if a gunman shot through the group of reporters covering the event.
After discussing the protective glass surrounding him, the former president said a would-be assassin "would have to shoot through the fake news" to get to him.
"I don't mind that so much," Trump said, drawing laughter and applause from his supporters. "I don't mind."
Watch:
Trump says he doesn't mind if someone shoots the press.
He repeatedly encourages violence against anyone who challenges his narrative.
That's what a dictator does — and Trump's Supreme Court gave him immunity to do whatever he wants if re-elected.
Votepic.twitter.com/W0dUWro2g9
— Melanie D'Arrigo (@DarrigoMelanie) November 3, 2024
Journalist Jeff Sharlet wrote in response that during his time covering "the fascism beat," he's met "men who've been itching for that encouragement, who openly fantasize about beating or killing reporters."
"It's not a joke," Sharlet wrote. "It's fascism."
Trump has long reveled in attacking members of the press, vilifying them as "the enemy of the people" and directing the ire of his supporters in their direction. Kash Patel, a Trump confidant who's expected to get a senior national security post if the former president wins Tuesday's election, suggested earlier this year that a second Trump administration would go after "the people in the media" with criminal or civil charges, underscoring the threat the Republican nominee poses to press freedom.
Facing backlash over Trump's latest attack on the press, his campaign issued an absurd statement claiming the former president was "actually looking out for [reporters'] welfare" by "stating that the media was in danger."
The Atlantic's Helen Lewis noted Sunday that "journalists are only some of the many 'enemies from within' whom Trump has name-checked at his rallies and on his favored social network, Truth Social."
Lewis continued:
He has suggested that Mark Zuckerberg should face "life in prison" if Facebook's moderation policies penalize right-wingers. He has suggested using the National Guard or the military against "radical-left lunatics" who disrupt the election. He believes people who criticize the Supreme Court "should be put in jail." A recent post on Truth Social stated that if he wins on Tuesday, Trump would hunt down "lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials" who had engaged in what he called "rampant Cheating and Skullduggery." Just last week, he fantasized in public about his Republican critic Liz Cheney facing gunfire, and he previously promoted a post calling for her to face a "televised military tribunal" for treason. In all, NPRfound more than 100 examples of Trump threatening to prosecute or persecute his opponents. One of his recent targets was this magazine.
Trump also said during Sunday's rally in Pennsylvania—where he and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are in a dead heat—that he "shouldn't have left" the White House after losing the 2020 election.
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'This Is What We're Funding': At Least 50 Children Killed in Israeli Strikes on Jabalia
"Civilians and civilian structures... must always be protected in accordance with international humanitarian law," said the head of UNICEF. "Yet these principles are being flouted over and over again."
Nov 03, 2024
The United Nations children's agency on Saturday condemned the Israel Defense Forces' "indiscriminate strikes on civilians in the Gaza Strip" after at least 50 children were reportedly among those killed in attacks on Jabalia refugee camp in the northern part of the enclave.
Northern Gaza has been under siege since early October, when Israel resumed its attacks there, claiming it was targeting Hamas militants.
The current situation in northern Gaza has been called "apocalyptic" by leading humanitarian groups in recent days, with women and children making up the majority of the hundreds of people killed, and Israel imposing a near-total blockade on humanitarian aid.
Now, said Catherine Russell, executive director of the U.N. Children's Fund (UNICEF), "the entire Palestinian population in North Gaza, especially children, is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine, and the ongoing bombardments."
In addition to the attacks on residential buildings this weekend in Jabalia, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that an attack on a healthcare center in Gaza City injured at least six people, including four children. The facility was participating in a polio vaccination drive, the second round of inoculations for children across Gaza.
"The Sheikh Radwan primary healthcare center in northern Gaza was struck today while parents were bringing their children to [get] the life-saving polio vaccination in an area where a humanitarian pause was agreed to allow vaccination to proceed," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. "These vital humanitarian-area-specific pauses must be absolutely respected. Ceasefire!"
Russell said the vehicle of a UNICEF staffer who was working on the vaccination campaign was attacked by "what we believe to be a quadcopter while driving through Jabalia—Elnazla."
The staff member was not injured, but Russell said "the attacks on Jabalia, the vaccination clinic, and the UNICEF staff member are yet further examples of the grave consequences of the indiscriminate strikes on civilians in the Gaza Strip."
"Civilians and civilian structures, including residential buildings, as well as humanitarian workers and their vehicles, must always be protected in accordance with international humanitarian law," said Russell. "Yet these principles are being flouted over and over again, leaving tens of thousands of children killed, injured, and deprived of essential services needed for survival."
The Gaza Health Ministry reports that at least 43,341 people have been killed in Gaza and at least 102,105 have been injured since Israel began its assault on the enclave more than a year ago in retaliation for a Hamas-led attack. Women and children make up most of those killed, even as Israel and the United States, the largest international supporter of the IDF, have insisted the military is targeting Hamas.
"How can this inhumane situation be tolerated by the Biden-Harris administration?" asked Nina Lahoud, who has served as a special adviser and peacekeeping officer at the U.N., after the death toll among children in Jabalia over the weekend was reported. "How many more Palestinian kids need to die to take urgent action?"
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'It's the Abortion Ban': Final Iowa Poll Shows Harris Leading Trump 47-44
Rights advocates were energized by the "gold standard" poll results, but called on progressives to continue working to turn out voters.
Nov 03, 2024
Political observers expressed shock Saturday evening as the Des Moines Register released its final poll before Election Day showing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by three points.
Harris was supported by 47% of respondents compared to 44% who backed Trump.
The newspaper's poll, conducted by pollster J. Ann Selzer, is widely regarded as the "gold standard" survey of voters in the state and has been recognized as "predicting" numerous election results in Iowa and giving a potential preview of how candidates could fare in other Midwestern states with similar demographics.
Progressive advocates cautioned against placing too much faith in a single poll—even a widely respected one—and urged Harris supporters to continue canvassing, phone-banking, and taking action to defeat Trump and the far-right MAGA movement.
But the unexpected result in a state that hasn't been considered a swing state in this election, and was widely assumed to be a Trump-supporting state, led political observers to look closely at the poll, which showed significant shifts toward Harris among women.
Women aged 65 and older supported Harris over Trump, 63% to 28%, in the poll. Women who identify as political independents also backed her, 57% to 29%.
Overall, women in the state are backing Harris in the poll by a margin of 20 points, according to the survey.
Lyz Lenz, a journalist based in Iowa, said she believed the poll could be linked to one major change in Iowa since the last presidential election: the six-week abortion ban that took effect in July, banning abortion care after fetal cardiac activity can be detected. Similar abortion bans have been blamed for at least four deaths of pregnant women in Texas and Georgia.
"It's the abortion ban," said Lenz. "Women are furious."
Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief and founder of the digital magazine Bolts, said the result could preview losses for state Supreme Court justices who have upheld abortion bans in a number of states, including Iowa.
In 10 states this year, voters will make their voices heard on ballot initiatives regarding the right to abortion care. In traditionally red states including Kansas and Kentucky since Roe was overturned, people have voted to protect the right to obtain an abortion.
"It's the Dobbs election," said Helaine Olen of the American Economic Liberties Project. "The Iowa poll is just the latest proof."
Selzer herself told the BBC that many respondents talked about abortion rights.
"The people who say they're supporting Kamala Harris, the issue they say they're thinking about most is democracy, about half of them saying that's the most important thing," she said. "But then half of that, about 25% roughly, say abortion. And Iowa has one of the strictest abortion laws in place... and that may well have played a part in this."
Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, said it would be "foolish to dismiss [Selzer's] poll," but cautioned election watchers against abandoning "all of [their] prior views about the state of the race."
Dan Pfeiffer, a former adviser to President Barack Obama and co-host of "Pod Save America," said one possible interpretation among several is that "Harris isn't really winning Iowa but the poll is capturing late-stage momentum that bodes well for Wisconsin, Michigan, [and] Pennsylvania."
Advocacy group Indivisible on Sunday morning advised supporters to "send this Iowa poll to all your group chats. Then, sign up to talk to some voters. With your help, we're going to win this thing in two days."
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