The situation in Honduras and Central America is growing increasingly
tumultuous with each passing day as deposed President Manuel Zelaya
confronts the de facto regime of Roberto Micheletti with thousands of
partisans mobilizing in the border areas. While Honduran army officers in
Washington and the capital of Tegucigalpa issue statements indicating they
may accept Zelaya's return--if the civilian coup leaders concur--military
and police units continue to fire on and even murder demonstrators. It is
impossible to predict the outcome of this confrontation. But one thing is
increasing clear--the growing conflict represents a failure of the Obama
administration to reshape US policy towards Latin America in spite of its
early rhetoric directed at the leaders of the region.
On June 29, the day after the coup, Barack Obama declared it "not legal"
and said "we don't want to go back to a dark past." This was in keeping
with his remarks at the Summit of the Americas in April when, in alluding
to the US history of backing military regimes, he stated, "The United States
will be willing to acknowledge past errors where those errors have been
made."
But US policy towards Honduras since the coup indicates that the Obama
administration does not represent "change you can believe in." Rather it is
bent on imposing its will and propping up the status quo in Latin America,
just as previous US administrations did.
Over the past decade a popular upsurge has swept Latin America
comprised of indigenous movements, impoverished urban dwellers,
peasants, environmentalists, feminists, and human rights advocates. They
are demanding a more equitable distribution of the wealth of their countries
and an end to political systems dominated by oligarchs, corrupt politicians
and business interests allied with the United States. A string of New Left
governments has emerged beginning with Hugo Chavez in Venezuela in
1999 followed by Luis Inacio "Lula" da Silva in Brazil in 2003. They have
been joined by the election of left of center presidents in Bolivia, Ecuador,
Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Nicaragua, Paraguay and El Salvador.
This block of progressive forces spearheaded the international opposition
to the coup in Honduras. Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner, reflecting the common sentiment around the continent, noted that
the coup was a throwback to "the worst years in Latin America's history."
The Organization of American States, which has historically been
dominated by the United States, voted 34 to 0 to call for the restoration of
Manuel Zelaya as president.
This unified opposition in Latin America left the Obama administration
with no alternative but to call for the resignation of the de facto
government. However, what it has done in the aftermath of the coup is to
search for a way to undermine the reformist agenda advocated by Zelaya
and to prop up the traditional interests aligned with the United States both
within Honduras and in Latin America at large. This commitment to the
old order is symbolized by the fact that Alvaro Uribe, the conservative
president of Colombia, was in the White House meeting with Obama on
June 29 as he issued his statement opposing the coup in Honduras. One of
the points Uribe and Obama discussed was US access to three airfields and
two naval bases in Colombia. Allegedly for use in the drug war in the
Andean region, they are also aimed at counteracting the growing influence
of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela who called the expanded US military
presence "a threat against us" that could even lead "to a war."
The US obsession with Venezuela is at the heart of its policy towards
Zelaya. Philip Crowley, Assistant Secretary of Public Affairs at the US
State Department, stated that the coup should serve as a "lesson" for the
deposed president who had signed trade and petroleum accords with
Venezuela: "We certainly think that if we were choosing a model
government and a model leader for countries of the region to follow, that
the current leadership in Venezuela would not be a particular model. If that
is the lesson that President Zelaya has learned from this episode, that
would be a good lesson."
Even before the coup, the Obama administration made known its
opposition to the reformist policies of the Zelaya government. At a meeting
of the Organization of American States (OAS) in early June in Tegucigalpa
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned Zelaya in a private meeting that
he should back off from trying to put a referendum on the ballot that would
provide for the convening of a constituent assembly to draft a new
constitution for the country. The election of constituent assemblies was the
vehicle used by Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador to overturn entrenched
interests and to "refound" their political institutions.
The main diplomatic gambit used by the Obama administration in an effort
to reign in Manuel Zelaya was to get President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica
to broker an agreement with the coup leaders in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.
Arias had served US interests well in the 1980s during his first presidential
term, using regional negotiations to undermine the revolutionary
government of Nicaragua and the guerrilla movements in El Salvador and
Guatemala while nurturing pseudo-democratic governments that adopted
the neo-liberal economic policies then coming into vogue with the
"Washington Consensus." This time however, Arias failed, primarily
because the OAS and most of the governments of Latin America made it
clear that they would not recognize any government in Tegucigalpa other
than one led by Zelaya. As President Luis Inacio da Silva of Brazil
declared, "we cannot compromise" on the restoration of Zelaya.
In the end Arias issued a mediation proposal that called for the restitution
of Zelaya as head of a national government of reconciliation with
weakened executive powers. Micheletti's de facto regime rejected the
proposal. It is worth noting that one of the clauses in the proposed accord
calls for Zelaya to refrain from promoting a constituent assembly, a clause
that has been angrily denounced by leaders of the social movements in
Honduras.
U.S. efforts to restore Zelaya have been quite tepid compared to other
countries. While many ambassadors have been withdrawn, the US head
diplomat Hugo Llorens, appointed by George W. Bush, remains in place.
There are reports that he may have even given the green light to the coup
plotters, or at least did nothing to stop them. And while the World Bank
has suspended assistance, the State Department merely warns that $180
million in US economic aid may be in jeopardy. Most importantly the
United States refuses to freeze the bank accounts and cancel the visas of
the coup leaders, measures that Zelaya and other Latin American
governments have urged Washington to do.
The Obama presidency probably hoped that like the years of the Bush
administration Latin America would require only marginal attention in the
grand scheme of world affairs. This may turn out not to be the case
however if Honduras, the last of the banana republics, erupts in a civil
conflict that draws in neighboring countries. "Change" may be the catch
word for the new administration, but here an old French phrase may be
more indicative of what is really occurring: "Plus ca change, plus c'est la
meme chose," the more things change the more they remain the same.