This week, all eyes will be on the fascinating race for mayor of New York City. One reason it’s so interesting is because New York plays such an outsized role in American life. It’s the home of some of America’s defining cultural symbols: the Statue of Liberty, the Empire State Building, the World Trade Center, Times Square, Broadway, and Harlem’s Apollo Theater. It’s also the country’s most populous and demographically complex city, with its five unique boroughs surprisingly coexisting in the same political entity.
The city is also beset by many of the challenges confronting America, writ large: crime, housing, drugs, immigration, racial and ethnic tensions, problems with policing, gentrification, the high cost of living, and political polarization. And yet, New York remains a magnet, drawing hundreds of thousands of new immigrants from all over the world and young people from across the U.S. to settle there, attracted by its allure and its promise of opportunity.
With all of New York’s complexity and problems, it’s a wonder that any politician would want to take on the Herculean task of governing it. And yet, here we are, one day away from New York’s primary elections with nine major candidates vying to be the Democratic Party’s nominee to compete in November’s general election.
Because of his history of activism and compelling personality, some have compared [Mamdani’s] meteoric rise to that of Barack Obama.
What makes this contest even more compelling to consider are the multiple layers of subtext that define it.
Of the nine major Democrats in the race for their party’s nomination, one is a former governor, two are citywide elected officials, one is a former citywide official, and four are elected state legislators. At this point, the two leaders are former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and State Rep. Zohran Mamdani (D-36).
Cuomo, age 67, served 10 years as governor until he was forced to resign under a cloud of charges ranging from the vindictive way he dealt with staff and other officials, to corruption, mishandling of Covid-19 in nursing homes, and most significantly credible charges of sexual harassment by a dozen women.
Cuomo has the endorsement of much of the state’s Democratic establishment and the financial support of billionaire-funded political action committees that are spending millions on his behalf. He is running a campaign focused on his experience—a double-edged sword—and emphasizing his centrist approach to politics, which in this polarized political environment is attractive to some New Yorkers and divisive to others.
Cuomo’s major opponent, Mamdani, is a 33-year-old who has been in the state legislature for a scant four years. Despite his youth and inexperience, his progressive agenda and charismatic style have catapulted him into a near-tie for the lead. Mamdani is running with the endorsement of the Democratic Socialists of America and other left-leaning organizations in New York. His grassroots-led campaign has made him a leader in individual donations and provided his effort with a record number of volunteers.
Both come from markedly different yet prominent family backgrounds. Cuomo is the son of former Gov. Mario Cuomo, a revered figure in the Italian American community. Before running for governor, Andrew served as his father’s chief of staff and “fixer.” He later served as President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Mamdani is an Ugandan-born Muslim of Indian descent, who also has prominent parents. His father Mahmood is a world-renowned progressive intellectual and professor at Columbia University. His mother, Mira Nair, is an award-winning filmmaker. Zohran came to the U.S. with his parents at the age of seven and became a U.S. citizen in 2018. He was a student activist and after graduating was active in a number of progressive causes and campaigns. Because of his history of activism and compelling personality, some have compared his meteoric rise to that of Barack Obama.
At week’s end, different polls show Cuomo up by 10 or by four, and another putting Mamdani up by two. Beyond the horse race, the polls also tell another story—one that puts in stark relief some of the divisions plaguing today’s Democratic Party. Cuomo leads decisively among voters who are Black, Catholic or Protestant, non-college educated, poorer, older, and hold moderate or conservative views. While Mamdani leads or is tied with Cuomo among white, Latino, college-educated, wealthier, liberal, and younger voters. And Mamdani leads among one of the largest groups of New York Democrats: those who have no religious affiliation. It’s also notable that despite Cuomo and establishment Jewish organizations making a big issue of Mamdani’s refusal to take a solidly pro-Israel line, he is running closer than expected to Cuomo in the competition for the Jewish vote—which may get even closer as the candidate in third place, Brian Lander, who is Jewish and also critical of Israel, has “cross-endorsed” Mamdani in the primary contest.
What the polls lay bare are the same problems Democrats have on the national level, the divisions that exist among the various component groups that have made up their coalition: young versus old, white versus non-white, religious versus non-religious, wealthier college-educated versus working class.
Because this election features what is called “ranked-choice voting”—in which voters pick their top five candidates in order and then votes are tallied, weighted by preference—it is still too close to call. A final layer: This fascinating contest is prelude to November’s race, when the Democratic nominee will face New York’s current mayor, who’s running as an independent, and may also include the runner-up from the primary, as both Cuomo or Mamdani could run on a third-party slate.
