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President Donald Trump receives a DoorDash delivery of McDonald's from Sharon Simmons outside the Oval Office of the White House on April 13, 2026 in Washington, DC.
(Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
Fewer Jobs, Higher Inflation, and $300 Billion in Lost Output: Analysis Details Woeful Trump Economy
"This economy could be delivering lower inflation, more jobs, and stronger growth, but instead, it’s being dragged in the wrong direction by this president’s policy choices."
Apr 15, 2026
With US consumer sentiment hitting an all-time low, the Center for American Progress on Wednesday released a report pinning the blame for Americans' economic gloom on President Donald Trump.
In total, the CAP analysis projects that by the fourth quarter of 2026, Trump's policies will lower real GDP by 1.3% while adding 1.39% to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.
The report also estimates that the economy would have created an additional 2 million jobs 2026 were it not for the Trump's tariffs, mass deportations, and war of choice with Iran.
Although the unemployment rate at the moment is low, the report explains, US employers are also hiring far fewer people, as "both labor demand and labor supply have fallen, leaving a job market with fewer opportunities and less resilience against downturns."
Trump's policies have also made borrowing more expensive, and CAP says that interest rates are now 60 basis points higher than they otherwise would have been without the president's policies.
Jared Bernstein, senior fellow at CAP and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden, said the analysis shows "this economy could be delivering lower inflation, more jobs, and stronger growth, but instead, it’s being dragged in the wrong direction by this president’s policy choices."
Bernstein said Trump's tariffs were the primary culprit for higher-than-expected inflation in 2025, while the oil supply shock that came after Trump launched a war with Iran is expected to add even more inflation throughout 2026.
The end result, said Bernstein, is a kind of "stagflation," with low economic growth and higher-than-average inflation. He also warned that "longer-term costs from reduced investment in both people and public goods will also take a toll on future growth."
Job growth in the US has largely stalled ever since Trump announced his "liberation day" tariffs more than a year ago, and a CAP analysis published earlier this month found that the economy has created an average of fewer than 22,000 jobs per month over the last year.
The latest Consumer Price Index report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics found that prices in March rose by 3.3% from the previous year—the highest annual inflation rate since April 2024.
Despite this, Trump has continued to insist that he has created the "greatest" economy in the history of the world.
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With US consumer sentiment hitting an all-time low, the Center for American Progress on Wednesday released a report pinning the blame for Americans' economic gloom on President Donald Trump.
In total, the CAP analysis projects that by the fourth quarter of 2026, Trump's policies will lower real GDP by 1.3% while adding 1.39% to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.
The report also estimates that the economy would have created an additional 2 million jobs 2026 were it not for the Trump's tariffs, mass deportations, and war of choice with Iran.
Although the unemployment rate at the moment is low, the report explains, US employers are also hiring far fewer people, as "both labor demand and labor supply have fallen, leaving a job market with fewer opportunities and less resilience against downturns."
Trump's policies have also made borrowing more expensive, and CAP says that interest rates are now 60 basis points higher than they otherwise would have been without the president's policies.
Jared Bernstein, senior fellow at CAP and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden, said the analysis shows "this economy could be delivering lower inflation, more jobs, and stronger growth, but instead, it’s being dragged in the wrong direction by this president’s policy choices."
Bernstein said Trump's tariffs were the primary culprit for higher-than-expected inflation in 2025, while the oil supply shock that came after Trump launched a war with Iran is expected to add even more inflation throughout 2026.
The end result, said Bernstein, is a kind of "stagflation," with low economic growth and higher-than-average inflation. He also warned that "longer-term costs from reduced investment in both people and public goods will also take a toll on future growth."
Job growth in the US has largely stalled ever since Trump announced his "liberation day" tariffs more than a year ago, and a CAP analysis published earlier this month found that the economy has created an average of fewer than 22,000 jobs per month over the last year.
The latest Consumer Price Index report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics found that prices in March rose by 3.3% from the previous year—the highest annual inflation rate since April 2024.
Despite this, Trump has continued to insist that he has created the "greatest" economy in the history of the world.
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- Report Details How Trump Economic Agenda ‘Will Make Ordinary Families Reliably Poorer in the Future’ ›
Related Articles Around the Web
With US consumer sentiment hitting an all-time low, the Center for American Progress on Wednesday released a report pinning the blame for Americans' economic gloom on President Donald Trump.
In total, the CAP analysis projects that by the fourth quarter of 2026, Trump's policies will lower real GDP by 1.3% while adding 1.39% to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.
The report also estimates that the economy would have created an additional 2 million jobs 2026 were it not for the Trump's tariffs, mass deportations, and war of choice with Iran.
Although the unemployment rate at the moment is low, the report explains, US employers are also hiring far fewer people, as "both labor demand and labor supply have fallen, leaving a job market with fewer opportunities and less resilience against downturns."
Trump's policies have also made borrowing more expensive, and CAP says that interest rates are now 60 basis points higher than they otherwise would have been without the president's policies.
Jared Bernstein, senior fellow at CAP and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden, said the analysis shows "this economy could be delivering lower inflation, more jobs, and stronger growth, but instead, it’s being dragged in the wrong direction by this president’s policy choices."
Bernstein said Trump's tariffs were the primary culprit for higher-than-expected inflation in 2025, while the oil supply shock that came after Trump launched a war with Iran is expected to add even more inflation throughout 2026.
The end result, said Bernstein, is a kind of "stagflation," with low economic growth and higher-than-average inflation. He also warned that "longer-term costs from reduced investment in both people and public goods will also take a toll on future growth."
Job growth in the US has largely stalled ever since Trump announced his "liberation day" tariffs more than a year ago, and a CAP analysis published earlier this month found that the economy has created an average of fewer than 22,000 jobs per month over the last year.
The latest Consumer Price Index report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics found that prices in March rose by 3.3% from the previous year—the highest annual inflation rate since April 2024.
Despite this, Trump has continued to insist that he has created the "greatest" economy in the history of the world.
From Your Site Articles
- Trump Has Turned the US Economy Into Sh*t ›
- Trump Treasury Pick's Economic Plan Would 'Require Massive Cuts to Anti-Poverty Programs': Analysis ›
- Report Details How Trump Economic Agenda ‘Will Make Ordinary Families Reliably Poorer in the Future’ ›
Related Articles Around the Web
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