Bolsonaro Drove Brazil's 2021 Emissions to Highest Level in Nearly Two Decades

An analysis published Tuesday estimates that the deforestation policies enacted by Brazil's newly defeated far-right President Jair Bolsonaro helped push the country's greenhouse gas emissions to their highest level in nearly two decades, spotlighting the difficult and urgent work ahead for leftist President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

"Lula must use the political power won at the polls to pressure Congress to stop votes for bills that seek to advance attacks against the forest."

The Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal Estimating System (SEEG), a project of Brazil's Climate Observatory, found that the nation "emitted 2.42 billion gross tons of CO2 equivalent" in 2021, an increase of 12.2% over 2020 levels.

"A greater increase was only verified in 2003, the year in which the country reached its all-time record in emissions. That year, the increase was 20%, driven by the explosion of deforestation in the Amazon," the analysis notes.

"Last year, emissions from deforestation were also the main responsible for the increase," the study continues. "Boosted by the third consecutive year of growth in the deforested area in the Amazon and other biomes under Jair Bolsonaro, emissions from land use change and forests rose by 18.5%. The destruction of Brazilian biomes emitted 1.19 billion gross tons last year--more than Japan."

The findings were released two days after Lula narrowly defeated Bolsonaro in Brazil's closely watched and tense presidential contest, a win hailed by climate advocates and Amazon defenders the world over.

But the destruction Bolsonaro inflicted on the Amazon--according to one estimate, more than two billion trees have been killed in the rainforest during his four-year tenure--will take swift and ambitious action to reverse.

In his victory speech late Sunday, Lula said his government will "fight for zero deforestation," adding that "a standing tree is worth more than tons of wood illegally harvested by those who think only of easy profit."

"We will resume the monitoring and surveillance of the Amazon, and combat any and all illegal activities, whether they be mining, logging, or improper cattle ranching," Lula declared. "At the same time, we will promote the sustainable development of the communities who live in the Amazon region. We will prove that it is possible to generate wealth without destroying the environment."

But the president-elect is likely to face serious opposition from industry forces and their allies in the Brazilian legislature. As The Washington Post reported earlier this week, "Some analysts warn that a bloc of lawmakers with ties to agriculture could try to block Lula's environmental policies and pass legislation to facilitate land-grabbing and illegal mining."

Vox environmental reporter Benji Jones noted Monday that "deforestation is unlikely to stop altogether once Lula takes office."

"Bolsonaro's party still dominates Congress and will likely continue supporting the cattle industry, which is behind nearly all forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon," Jones added. "The country also faces an economic crisis and fallout from mismanaging the coronavirus pandemic, and it's not clear exactly how Lula will prioritize these competing crises."

Environmentalists nevertheless hailed Lula's victory as a crucial step toward rescuing the Amazon from more severe and potentially permanent damage.

"There is still much to be done to reverse the great destruction caused by Bolsonaro's administration," Leila Salazar-Lopez, the executive director of Amazon Watch, said in a statement following Lula's win. "This was a critical vote toward stopping deforestation and the degradation of the Amazon, which has advanced dramatically to its point of no return under Bolsonaro."

"The Bolsonaro government has two months left in power," Salazar-Lopez added. "Lula must use the political power won at the polls to pressure Congress to stop votes for bills that seek to advance attacks against the forest and Indigenous peoples. The violence in the Amazon is expected to accelerate in these last months of Bolsonaro's administration, it is necessary to remain vigilant and ready to denounce and fight all crimes."