What a comedown!
In 2008 Barack Obama ran on hope and change. His reelection bid relies on fear (of Republicans) and stay-the-course (lest said Republicans slash even more Medicare than Obama is willing to give away).
Yeah, yeah, anything can happen in one year--the GOP could nominate Bob Dole again--but it's getting harder to imagine a scenario in which Obama wins reelection. The tsunami of bad economic news has become so relentless that last week's story that one out of six Americans have fallen below the poverty line came and went with nary a shrug. (On the bright side, we're just ahead of Indonesia. On the other side, Russia won the Cold War after all.)
Obama's threat to veto any debt bill that doesn't include taxes on the rich is supposed to signal a "new, more combative phase of his presidency, one likely to last until next year's election as he battles for a second term," as the New York Times puts it. But it's too nothing, too late.
Tax increases get rolled back; Medicaid cuts are forever.
Rick Perry thinks the earth is a week old and Mitt Romney wears pink underwear and Michele Bachmann has crazy eyes. Unless they fart into the camera on national television, however, any of the leading Republican candidates will likely trounce a president who did nothing while the labor force shrunk by at least six million.
OK, he did stimulate the Martha's Vineyard golf club economic sector.
On fifth thought, voters might overlook flatulence.
I had been wondering what accomplishments Team Obama planned to point to next year. Times editor Bill Keller helpfully lays it all out (I use the word "all" loosely) in an op/ed: "Lost in the shouting is the fact that Obama pulled the country back from the brink of depression; signed a health care reform law that expands coverage, preserves choice and creates a mechanism for controlling costs; engineered a fairly stringent financial regulatory reform; and authorized the risky mission that got Osama bin Laden."
Let's take these Democratic talking points like the trajectory of the U.S. empire: in reverse.
The trouble with assassinating Osama bin Laden is that once you've killed Osama bin Laden no one thinks about Osama bin Laden anymore. The Bushies understood this. Putting the Al Qaeda chief on trial would have been smarter politics (not to mention a sop to basic legal principles).
The new banking and securities regulations were too granular and timid for anyone to notice. Show me a president who bans ATM, overdraft and late credit-card fees, on the other hand, and I'll show you a shoo-in for reelection. Or sainthood.
I don't know what kind of health plan they offer on 8th & 42nd, but no one--not conservatives, not liberals, not anyone--likes what we know about Obama's healthcare reform. The Right thinks it's socialism. The Left wishes it were. What matters is that it doesn't matter--Obamacare doesn't going into effect until 2014. You can't ask for votes of gratitude for a law that no one has experienced--and that many suspect will be repealed by the GOP or overturned by the courts.
Then there's Keller's first assertion: "Obama pulled the country back from the brink of depression."
Um--Bill? Depression? We're soaking in it.
The real unemployment rate (the way the government calculated it during the 1930s) is over 24 percent. That matches the highest monthly rate during the Great Depression.
But this Depression is worse than the "Great" Depression. You could buy an apple for a nickel back then. Now there's high inflation too.
Not only are one out of four Americans out of work, the salaries of the employed are stagnant and getting eroded by soaring food and gas prices.
U.S. state-controlled media outlets like the Times are in the president's corner. But their "without Obama the economy would be even worse" narrative is reducing their man's chances next November. If there's anything worse than losing your job, it's a media that pretends you that you and your reality don't exist. There never was a recovery; the economy crashed with the dot-coms in 2000 and never came back, what they called a "stimulus" was nothing more than a giveaway to bank CEOs, and now tens of millions of pissed-off people are itching for a chance to make a noise.
This, as Keller should know from reading the polls in his own paper, is why the liberal-progressive base of the Democratic Party is drifting away from
Obama. They won't vote for Perry or whomever, they just won't vote.
Not since 1980 have the Democrats headed into a reelection campaign with such a weak incumbent president. Which prompts a question: Why is Obama running unopposed? A Democratic Party, it should go without saying, needs a democratic primary process.
A group of liberals led by former Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader has issued a call for one or more progressive leaders to run against Obama in the spring primaries. "Without debates by challengers inside the Democratic Party's presidential primaries, the liberal/majoritarian agenda will be muted and ignored," Nader said in a press release. "The one-man Democratic primaries will be dull, repetitive, and draining of both voter enthusiasm and real bright lines between the two parties that excite voters."
It's a nice thought, though it would be impossible to raise enough money to successfully challenge Obama at this late stage.
So get ready for The Return of the Republicans. I'm no James Carville, but I've seen enough presidential politics to know that anger beats fear.
Especially during an Even Greater Depression.
Democratic Party Needs a Democratic Primary Process
What a comedown!
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