Texas Democratic Primary Turnout Surges in Show of 'Strong Enthusiasm' From Base Voters

Turnout among early Democratic voters in Texas has been surging in what election analysts say is a key sign for what's to come in the 2026 midterm elections.

As CNN reported on Thursday, early voting data shows that more than 850,000 ballots have so far been cast in the Texas Democratic primary, which is "nearly 60% more than the number of votes cast at the same point in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary."

CNN said that this high turnout points to "a continuing trend of strong enthusiasm among the party's base."

To put this in perspective, the Texas Tribune noted that "more ballots have been cast in Texas through the first seven days of early voting for the 2026 midterms than any recent midterm or presidential election year," driven primarily by Democratic turnout.

The Tribune added that Democratic turnout has already broken records in Harris County, the most populous county in Texas, and in Tarrant County, where Democrat Taylor Rehmet earlier this year pulled off an upset victory in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 17 points in the 2024 election.

In breaking down the early turnout numbers so far, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten said on Wednesday that Democrats in Texas may actually outvote Republicans in a primary this year for the first time since 2002.

Enten also said that the turnout surge has big implications for the 2026 midterms.

"When we're talking nationally, primary turnout matters," he explained. "The fact that more people are voting on the Democratic side in Texas at this point, that translates nationally, that would suggest Democrats [are] well on their way to winning the House. And in a red state like Texas? As I said: Mind blown."

While winning the primary turnout battle wouldn't guarantee a Democratic victory the Texas US Senate general election, Politico reported on Thursday that Republicans in the state are growing nervous about the race.

In particular, Republicans fear that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a highly divisive figure even among Texas Republicans, could win the nomination over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told Politico that Cornyn is "the best candidate on the ballot in a general election, not only for the Senate, but also for down-ballot races in the House that could be impacted by the Senate race too. He added that the GOP would likely have to spend more money propping up Paxton should he win the Republican nomination.

"Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting," said Thune, "I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate."

US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and Texas state Rep. James Talarico are the two leading Democrats battling for the party's US Senate nomination. A survey released Wednesday by pollsters from the University of Texas found that Crockett is leading Talarico in the primary race by 12 percentage points.