Yemen's Sorrowful Options: 'Revolt, Migrate or Die'

When
the Soviets concluded their pull out from Afghanistan in February 1989,
the United States government abruptly lost interest in the country. A
devastated economic infrastructure, entrenched poverty, deep-rooted
factionalism and lack of international aid caused the country to
descend into complete chaos. Internal violence also worsened, but it
was no longer an American concern. All that mattered was that the Cold
War rival had been defeated. Mission accomplished.

Afghanistan
remains the starkest illustration of how poor countries are used, then
betrayed when their usefulness runs out. But Afghanistan is not an
exception; US relations with many other countries, including Pakistan,
Somalia and the Palestinian Authority remain hostage to this very
model.

Yemen
is now emerging as the newest casualty. Its government is desperate to
hold on to the rein of power, amid corruption, extreme poverty and
untold Western pressures. Ali Abdullah Saleh, the country's president
of the last thirty one years, has impressively negotiated his political
survival through mounting challenges. The 1994 civil war left many
thousands dead, and despite the north's 'victory' the discontent of the
south never waned. More, a Houthi revolt in the north is long running.
Its latest manifestation lasted for sixth months and caused many
deaths, most of which remained unreported. A mass migration of hundreds
of thousands (270,000 by the recent estimates of the United Nations
World Food Program) coincided with or followed the fighting. This is
now temporarily in check, thanks to a fragile ceasefire.

According
to some analysts, the ceasefire in the north could allow the central
government in Sanaa to tend to the challenge growing in the south.
Victoria Clark, author of the recent book Yemen: Dancing on the Heads
of Snakes claimed that, "Southern disaffection has gone beyond the
point of no return...Saleh's biggest mistake would be to crack down on
southerners as hard as he has tried to do on the Houthi rebels."

However,
under immense (and increasing) western pressure, Saleh is likely to
crack down. Western governments, led by the US and Britain, run out of
patience fairly quickly when the leaders of a poor, fragmented country
opt for dialogue - even when such a choice might actually result in
long-term political stability. When Afghan President Hamid Karzai
merely mentioned of the possibility of engaging the Taliban, it
generated much rebuke. A similar scenario happened in Pakistan. When
Palestinian factions achieved the Mecca Agreement in February 2007 to
mend their differences, the US immediately conditioned its financial
backing of Mahmoud Abbas, and the agreement was successfully
disintegrated. In the same vein, any Yemeni attempt at reaching out to
the disaffected forces within the country, including tribes, opposition
parties, and the various militant offshoots has been dismissed as an
attempt to appease the terrorists.

Following
a plot to blow up a US airliner over the city of Detroit on Christmas
Day, the US renewed its interest in Yemen - in a predictable way. The
administration of President Barack Obama issued an order early April
authorizing the assassination of a US citizen Anwar al-Awlaki, a Muslim
cleric linked to the plot. It seems like the Bush years all over again.

US
Special Operation Forces have been at work in Yemen for years,
following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Yemen was then
declared "an important partner in the global war on terrorism," and it
remains so, whenever there is a need to chase the elusive militant
groups partly or wholly linked to al-Qaeda.

The
violent perusal of US enemies in Yemen comes at a heavy cost. On one
hand it has undermined the central government, which is being
increasingly challenged from the north, the south and the center.
Naturally, no self-respecting government would allow its territories to
be used either as breeding grounds for militants, or as a hunting
ground for foreign forces. A raid involving US cruise missiles at an
alleged al-Qaeda camps in December 17, 2009 killed dozens, including 23
women and 17 children, according to Yemeni sources.

Indeed,
Yemen is to a great extent a battlefield in which the central
government is hardly the central player. However, the so-called 'war on
terror' has presented many self-seeking forces in Yemen with a golden
opportunity to extract wealth. Much has been 'invested' to beat
al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular (AQAP). But little has been spent
elsewhere, for example, in providing sustenance to the hundreds of
thousands victimized by the ongoing violence.

When
problems become insurmountable and there is no effective system of
accountability in place, corruption becomes rampant. It is no wonder
that Yemen ranks 154 of the 180 countries examined in the Transparency
International Corruption Index. Corruption is often an outcome of
poverty and lack of accountability, and it also contributes to them.
Yemen is unable to escape this vicious circle.

Since
Yemen is not officially an occupied country, donor countries can easily
disown their financial promises. Such promises are only made when Yemen
is set for some military operation or another, or to prop up the
central government's own proxy war on terror. However, when the Yemeni
people are in genuine and dire need for help, Yemen becomes such a
distant subject. It begets pity, at best, but no action.

According
to the World Food Program (WFP), 7.2 million people - about a third of
the country's population - are suffering from chronic hunger. Almost
half of them require immediate food assistance, but fewer than half a
million are receiving it. They have been directly affected by the
policies of western governments, and the central government's own
involvement in proxy wars on militants, tribes and other disaffected
Yemenis.

How
much money is the WFP is asking for in its latest appeal? A meager $103
million, out of which only $27 million has been received. A Tomahawk
cruise missile - celebrated as both cheap but effective - costs around
$600,000. The cost of the operation that killed dozens of innocent
Yemenis last December could have, in fact, fed millions in need.

This
is not a matter of mathematics; it is common sense. The ongoing
miscalculations in Yemen are securing the very environment that lead to
poverty, corruption, anger - and ultimately militancy and violence.

According
to Emilia Casella, spokeswoman for the WFP, "people have three other
options after that -- revolt, migrate or die." Sadly, it is what
millions of Yemenis are already doing.