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On Wednesday Ed Milliband, the new Labour energy secretary, announced that the government would not back the companies that want to develop two huge new North Sea oilfields.
I’m pretty sure this newsletter will be obsessing over the American election between now and November—it is the most crucial contest in the crucial years, after all. But this has already been a year of democracy around the globe with half the world’s people going to the polls, and the results have so far been not as bad as they might have been—Prime Minister Narendra Modi rebuked in India, the far right checked in European elections and in France, and a smashing victory for Labour in the U.K., which is already yielding serious climate benefits.
On Wednesday Ed Milliband, the new Labour energy secretary, announced that the government would not back the companies that want to develop two huge new North Sea oilfields. This takes a bit of explanation, so bear with me. Oil giants Shell and Equinor want to develop the vast Jackdaw and Rosebank oil fields. The Tory government backed these projects, even though it led former Energy Secretary Chris Skidmore to resign from the party. In June, a court ruled that the environmental review for the projects was insufficient, because, crucially, the companies had failed to account for the emissions not just from the oil wells themselves, but from the eventual combustion of that oil in cars around the world. These so-called Scope 3 emissions are obviously the key problem with new gas and oil projects, but the industry has worked hard to keep them off the table—and after the court ruling the then-Tory government announced they would back those companies in court. Now the new sheriff, veteran environmentalist Milliband, has said no.
The fight isn’t over—the companies are appealing the court rulings. But here’s my prediction: This will be one of the first large oilfields that humans decide to leave in the ground because of climate concerns.
I say this because Labour has just won its massive majority, and can now govern for as much as five years before they have to face the voters again. Let’s say they don’t call a new election along the way and govern until 2029; with the massive growth in renewable energy now firmly underway, I don’t think that there will be the appetite among financiers for new oil fields then. They’ll certainly try—as Desmog Blog pointed out Thursday, a leading candidate for the new head of the beleaguered Tory party, Tom Tugendhat, has been merrily collecting money from various oil interests and is plumping for new North Sea drilling. But I think that by the time he or someone likes him returns to 10 Downing Street, the moment will have passed.
Here’s how the Tory MP for East Surrey and shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho put it on Twitter Thursday morning:
The final blow for the North Sea. No other major economy is taking this approach to its domestic energy supply.
She’s right that it’s groundbreaking, but she’s wrong that it’s entirely novel. Yes, too many rich countries continue to pump out hydrocarbons for export—tiny Tuvalu called out its Pacific neighbor Australia today for its endless willingness to serve as coal and gas merchant to the world. But there are signs of seismic shift. Remember that last fall in Dubai the world’s governments agreed in Dubai that the time had come to “transition away” from fossil fuels. A few weeks later the Biden administration paused approval of new LNG export terminals, which if it became permanent would in effect keep some serious portion of the gas in the Permian Basin of the southwest permanently underground. That is an even bigger climate bomb than North Sea oil, and though the pushback from fossil fuel interests has been fierce the White House has so far kept its nerve—and the basic issue (along with the ferocious justice impacts on Gulf communities) is the same Scope 3 emissions. It’s just too much carbon and methane to let loose in the atmosphere.
I fear that America’s noble stand may not last. In the wake of the Harris victory I’m working hard to help achieve, I think a lame duck session of Congress might well adopt the proposal from Big Oil Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and John Barasso (R-Wyo.) to trade permitting reform that will help expand renewables with new permits for those LNG facilities. I hope they don’t; important as those permitting reforms are, this one is a bad deal, as a new Sierra Club report released Thursday makes clear:
The LNG projects that would likely be immediately subject to the 90 day review deadline if this bill passes would have climate-damaging emissions equivalent to 154 coal-fired power plants. For comparison, as of August 2024, there are 145 coal plants left in the entire U.S. that don’t have a retirement date by 2030. When looking at all the projects that DOE is likely to review in the coming years, the climate toll goes up to that of 422 coal plants.
There are, again, two equally important and interlinked parts of the climate fight: keeping fossil fuels in the ground, and building out renewable energy to replace that locked-away coal, gas and oil. And the fight is unavoidably global.
Oceana U.K.'s leader called the decision "a massive win for campaigners and another step towards... a cleaner, greener future for our seas, planet, and climate."
Climate campaigners celebrated Thursday after the United Kingdom's new Labour government announced it will not legally defend decisions to allow controversial offshore drilling in a pair of areas in the North Sea.
The two sites are Shell's Jackdaw gas field and the Rosebank oil field, owned by Equinor and Ithaca Energy. Both projects have been loudly criticized by international green groups as well as U.K. opponents.
"This is amazing news and a BIG WIN for the climate. The government must now properly support affected workers and prioritize investment in green jobs,"
declared Greenpeace U.K., which along with the group Uplift had demanded judicial reviews.
The approvals for both North Sea sites occurred under Conservative rule—in 2022 for Jackdaw and last year for Rosebank, the country's biggest untapped oil field. Voters handed control of the government back to the Labour Party in May.
Then, as The Guardiandetailed, "in June, the cases against the oil and gas fields received a boost when the Supreme Court ruled in a separate case that 'scope 3' emissions—that is, the burning of fossil fuels rather than just the building of the infrastructure to do so—should be taken into account when approving projects."
"Now we need to see a just transition plan for workers and communities across the U.K. and an end extraction in the North Sea for good!"
The U.K. Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, led by Secretary Ed Miliband, cited the "landmark" Supreme Court ruling in a Thursday statement that highlighted the government's decision not to defend the approvals "will save the taxpayer money" and "this litigation does not mean the licences for Jackdaw and Rosebank have been withdrawn."
"Oil and gas production in the North Sea will be a key component of the U.K. energy landscape for decades to come as it transitions to our clean energy future in a way that protects jobs," the department claimed, while also pledging to "consult later this year on the implementation of its manifesto position not to issue new oil and gas licenses to explore new fields."
Welcoming the U.K. government's acceptance of the recent high court ruling, Uplift founder and executive director Tessa Khan
said on social media that "the immediate consequence... is that the Scottish Court of Session is very likely to quash the decision approving Rosebank, although we're likely to have to wait a while before that's confirmed."
"If Equinor and Ithaca Energy decide they still want to press ahead with developing the field," Khan explained, "then the next step will be for them to submit a new environmental statement to the [government] and regulator... that includes the scope 3 emissions from the field."
"If you need reminding, those emissions are massive: the same as 56 coal-fired power plants running for a year or the annual emissions of the world's 28 poorest countries," she added. "If Equinor and Ithaca try to push Rosebank through again, the U.K. [government] must reject it."
Greenpeace similarly stressed that "Rosebank and Jackdaw would generate a vast amount of emissions while doing nothing to lower energy bills," and "the only real winners from giving them the greenlight would be greedy oil giants Shell and Equinor."
"To lower bills, improve people's health, upgrade our economy," the group argued, the government must: increase renewable energy; better insulate homes; and boost support for green jobs.
Celebrations over the government's decision and calls for further action weren't limited to the groups behind the legal challenges.
Oceana U.K. executive director praised the "incredible work" by Greenpeace and Uplift, and called the government dropping its defense "a massive win for campaigners and another step towards... a cleaner, greener future for our seas, planet, and climate."
Oil Change International also applauded the government's "incredibly important and correct decision."
"There is no defending more fossil fuel extraction," the organization said. "Now we need to see a just transition plan for workers and communities across the U.K. and an end extraction in the North Sea for good!"
Global Witness similarly celebrated the government's move, declaring on social media that "this is brilliant news!"
"New oilfields are an act of climate vandalism," the group added. "Governments must prioritize people, not polluters' profit."