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ebrahim raisi
Iranian Snap Elections Head to Runoff After Reformist Pezeshkian Takes Narrow Lead
A total of 24,735,185 people voted, representing a turnout of around 40%—the lowest turnout in an Iranian election since the 1979 revolution.
Jun 29, 2024
Reformist legislator Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili will face off in a second round of voting after neither candidate secured a majority of the votes in Iran's election Friday.
Surprise elections in Iran were called after conservative President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19, opening what one expert called a "void in the Islamic Republic's leadership."
"None of the candidates could garner the absolute majority of the votes, therefore, the first and second contenders who got the most votes will be referred to the Guardian Council," Interior Ministry spokesperson Mohsen Eslami announced on Saturday.
"Pezeshkian appears to have done well enough to turn out a core base of support that gives him a plausible path to victory, but he will likely need to secure support from Iranians who opted to stay home yesterday in order to triumph."
Pezeshkian and Jalili will now advance to the runoff election on July 5.
After Friday's voting, Pezeshkian took a slight lead with 10.45 million votes over Jalili's 9.47 million, according to an initial tally reported by The Guardian. Both of them edged out conservative parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf with 3.38 million votes and former Justice Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi with 206,000.
A total of 24,735,185 people voted, representing a turnout of around 40%. That is the lowest turnout in an Iranian election since the 1979 revolution, according to Middle East Eye.
"This demonstrates that a majority of the Iranian public remains disaffected from participation in the Islamic Republic's restricted elections, which are neither free nor fair," the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) wrote in a statement on Saturday. "The Iranian people have suffered manifold outrages from their government and circumstances, including the brutal crackdown on popular protests in 2022 and earlier and the failure of past moderate and reformist figures to deliver lasting change."
"As a result," NIAC continued, "a majority appear to have concluded for now that they would rather stay home than risk legitimizing a government they do not believe in. The inclusion of a reformist on the ticket in Masoud Pezeshkian may have boosted turnout in some quarters, but did little overall to arrest the slide in turnout in the first round."
Reform leader Abbas Akhoundi said: "About 60% of voters did not participate in the elections. Their message was clear. They object to the institutionalized discrimination in the existing governance and do not accept that they are second-class citizens and that a minority impose their will on the majority of Iranian society as first-class citizens."
The outcome on July 5 could depend on whether or not turnout increases.
NIAC observed that Pezeshkian's lead was surprising, given that low-turnout elections usually favor more conservative candidates.
"Typically, reformists have only triumphed when turnout reaches near record highs with a vast majority of public participation," the group wrote. "Pezeshkian appears to have done well enough to turn out a core base of support that gives him a plausible path to victory, but he will likely need to secure support from Iranians who opted to stay home yesterday in order to triumph."
Because power in Iran is ultimately held by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the winner of the presidential election is unlikely to substantially shift policies such as Iran's nuclear program or its support for militant groups in the Middle East, according to Reuters.
However, NIAC said the difference between the two candidates was "about as wide a difference as the Islamic Republic's restricted elections would allow."
Pezeshkian, a former health minister who represents Tabriz in Parliament, advocates for economic and social reform. He expressed regret over the death of Mahsa Amini after she was arrested for allegedly wearing her hijab incorrectly—an event that sparked nationwide protests in 2022—and also criticized the Raisi government for lack of transparency during the protests.
"We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women," Pezeshkian said after voting on Friday.
In foreign policy, he supports direct diplomacy with the U.S. and has expressed interest in renegotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Jalili, who represents Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council, supports even stricter hijab laws, advocates for internet restrictions, and opposes the JCPOA or any negotiations with Western countries.
Because Pezeshkian was the only reformist in the first round of elections, he may struggle in a second round unless turnout increases, as supporters of the other conservative candidates would vote for Jalili, according to The Guardian.
However, a reformist newspaper editor told the Middle East Eye that many people who had sat out the first round of elections may vote in the second round to prevent a win by Jalili. The editor also predicted that many people who voted for Ghalibaf in the first round would back Pezeshkian in the second.
"At least 40% of his supporters, who are moderate and pragmatic conservatives, would vote for Pezeshkian as they fear Jalili's domestic policies and dead-end foreign policy," the editor said.
Ahead of the election, Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft predicted that voters would ultimately decide based on a desire to improve "their increasingly dire economic situation in the medium term."
"They are looking for the candidate who will most likely be able to reduce the price of meat," Parsi wrote.
He did predict the winner could make a difference in Iran-U.S. relations, but only up to a point.
"Expectations for an opening between the U.S. and Iran should be kept low, even if Pezeshkian wins," Parsi concluded. "The problems between the U.S. and Iran are deeper today than they were in 2013, the trust gap is wider, reversing Iran's nuclear advances is going to be more difficult and politically more costly. On top of all that, Iran has more options in today's increasingly multipolar world."
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The Destabilizing Impacts of Helicopter Disaster in Iran
At a time when the war in Gaza is continuing and Iran’s shadowy war with Israel has come into the open, there is no question that the deaths of Iran's president, foreign minister, and other high-level officials will have deep repercussions.
May 21, 2024
Iran’s president, foreign minister, and several other high-level officials lost their lives on Sunday, when their helicopter crashed in a mountainous area in northwest Iran.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was an ultra-hardliner who had been handpicked in 2021 by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to be Iran’s president. Before his election, Raisi had a long career in the judiciary and a notorious and well-documented track record for violating the human rights of the Iranian people.
Raisi played an important role in the execution of nearly 4,000 political prisoners during the summer of 1988. As Tehran Prosecutor from 1989 to 1994, he arrested and prosecuted leading nationalist-religious figures, who had played important roles in the 1979 Revolution. During the Green Movement of 2009 to 2010, when Raisi was serving as the principal deputy of the judiciary chief, he declared that the demonstrators should be executed and played an important role in the crackdown in the aftermath of the movement.
As the Prosecutor of the “Special Court for the Clergy” — an unconstitutional and extra-judicial court — from 2012, he persecuted dissident clerics opposed to Khamenei’s rule. And after demonstrations broke out in Iran in September of 2022 in the aftermath of the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who had lost her life while in detention, Raisi took a hard line against demonstrators.
The economic performance of the Raisi administration over the past three years has been dismal. He was not able to deliver on any of his promises, from reducing rampant inflation (estimated to hover around 50%) to building 4 million new houses for low-income people.
In foreign policy, Raisi had promised that his administration would negotiate with the United States regarding a return to the nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but his hardline approach was not successful, and the negotiations stalled. Thus, aside from his hardline supporters, who make up about 10 to 15% of the population, hardly anyone will shed any tears for him.
Raisi’s death will nevertheless contribute to the complex dynamics of Iran’s internal politics, including the fierce power struggle among various conservative and moderate factions.
The most important issue facing Iran, and particularly the conservatives, is who will succeed Khamenei as the next supreme leader. He is 85 years old and has been known for years to be ill, although the Western press has at times exaggerated the extent of his illness.
In 2016, Khamenei appointed Raisi to the highly important post of Chairman of Astan Quds Razavi in Mashhad, placing him in control of the shrine of Imam Reza, Shia Islam’s 8th Imam, and its vast assets, totaling tens of billions of dollars. Many interpreted that decision as a signal that Raeisi would be a candidate for succeeding Khamenei.
The plausibility of the interpretation was strengthened when, immediately after Raisi’s appointment, senior officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) visited Raisi in Mashhad, treating him as a sort of future national leader. That was the first sign that Raisi was rising among the hardliners. With the support of Khamenei and his son, Mojtaba — a shadowy figure whom many also consider as another potential successor to his father — Raisi ran in the presidential elections in 2017 but lost badly to former President Hasan Rouhani.
Raisi’s main base of support was in the Jebheh Paydari Enghelab-e Eslami (JPEE) [the Front of Stability of Islamic Revolution], who are followers of the reactionary and hardline cleric Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi (1935-2021). Although they have always professed their loyalty to Khamenei, over the past several years fissures have emerged between the JPEE and those who are close to the beit-e rahbari – the office of the supreme leader – and Mojtaba Khamenei, who plays a key role in it.
These fissures became more transparent in the most recent elections for the Majles (Iran’s parliament), held in March of this year, when the younger Khamenei’s father-in-law, who is close to the supreme leader, criticized the JPEE, as did some of the mouthpieces of the IRGC.
The recent Majles elections were held simultaneously with those for the Assembly of Experts, a constitutional body whose most important task is to elect the new supreme leader. By vetting the candidates, the hardliners prevented moderate clerics, such as Rouhani, from running in those elections. This set the stage for a succession showdown between various hardline factions, namely, supporters of Mojtaba Khamenei, Raisi, and perhaps a dark horse candidate like Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje’i, the hardline judiciary chief who recently criticized Raisi implicitly over economic corruption.
Some in Iran believe that helping Raisi to become Iran’s President was in fact a trap set for him by the younger Khamenei to showcase Raisi’s incompetence. Indeed, the dismal performance of Iran’s economy under Raisi — coupled with his administration’s poor planning and rampant corruption — would have severely complicated his chances of becoming supreme leader.
According to the Islamic Republic’s constitution, national elections should be held to elect the next president within 50 days of Raisi’s death.
Only 30 to 40% of eligible voters participated in the recent Majles elections, a low turnout that has alarmed many, even among the regime’s supporters, since the ruling elite had always interpreted the high turnout of voters in the past national elections as a sign of legitimacy of its political system. The question is, will Khamenei use the opportunity of Raisi’s death to allow for more open elections with the hope of shoring up his regime’s legitimacy?
In addition, given Raisi’s deep unpopularity among the masses, his funeral and the upcoming elections may provide an opportunity for the Iranian people to once again demonstrate their frustrations with the terrible state of the economy, as well as social and political repression.
Given that the most important reason for Raisi’s rise to the presidency was his loyalty to Khamenei, who will be the latter’s candidate in the upcoming elections? There is no shortage of candidates among the hardliners, but none can advance without Khamenei’s support, and it is not yet clear who will have his backing.
Finally, how will Raisi’s death affect the question of a successor to Khamenei? Will new candidates emerge? Will Raisi’s death lead to the possibility of a more moderate successor to Khamenei? What will be the role of the IRGC in selecting the successor?
Given Iran’s complex political dynamics, these are not easy questions to address. But, particularly at a time when the war in Gaza is continuing and Iran’s shadowy war with Israel has come into the open, there is no question that what happens in Iran will have repercussions for the entire Middle East.
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Iranian President, Foreign Minister Among Officials Found Dead After Helicopter Crash
The presumed accident "creates a void in the Islamic Republic's leadership amid a deepening legitimacy crisis," said one expert.
May 20, 2024
Iran's state media confirmed on Monday that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were among the officials found dead after a helicopter crash in a foggy, mountainous region near the nation's northwest border with Azerbaijan.
The crash killed everyone on board, including East Azerbaijan province Gov. Malek Rahmati; Ayatollah Al-Hashemi, a representative of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; and Mehdi Mousavi, the head of Raisi's protection team, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. They "were returning from an event on the border with Azerbaijan to inaugurate a dam project on Sunday."
The supreme leader declared five days of national mourning and praised the conservative late president, saying that "the entire tenure of Ebrahim Raisi, whether during his short presidency or before that, was spent in tireless service to the people, the country, and Islam."
Khamenei also announced that Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will take over as president until elections are held within 50 days. IRNA reported that Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani, a nuclear negotiator, will serve as acting foreign minister.
National Iranian American Council president Jamal Abdi said the death of the Iranian president and foreign minister "creates a void in the Islamic Republic's leadership amid a deepening legitimacy crisis," explaining that "Raisi came to office in elections that were highly choreographed, even by the Islamic Republic's standards, and which marked a new era of consolidation of power by hardliners and the narrowing of already meager channels for popular political contestation allowed by the regime."
"He entered office with a long history of rights abuses from his time in the Iranian judiciary that oversaw mass executions of political dissidents in 1988 and Raisi's government will be forever known for its brutal crackdown against popular demonstrations during the 'Woman, Life, Freedom' movement," Abdi continued.
Looking to the upcoming special presidential election, Abdi said that "this will pose new challenges for the Islamic Republic, as popular participation in elections has declined precipitously in recent years. Most recently, this spring, the vast majority of Iranian voters stayed home in parliamentary elections where most moderate and reformist candidates were barred from running."
"The state will now weigh its interest in mobilizing public participation in an unprecedented election at a time of great regional turmoil against its fears of popular challenges to its rule amid domestic unease," he added. "The divides between state and society will only deepen if the Guardian Council only approves a narrow list of conservative regime insiders to run for the Iranian presidency."
The crash comes just weeks after Iran and Israel exchanged attacks during an ongoing U.S.-backed Israeli assault on the Gaza Strip—both of which have elevated concerns about a broader war.
As The Associated Press reported Monday:
Aircraft in Iran face a shortage of parts, often flying without safety checks against the backdrop of Western sanctions. Because of that, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sought to blame the United States for the crash in an interview Monday.
"One of the main culprits of yesterday's tragedy is the United States, which... embargoed the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran and does not allow the people of Iran to enjoy good aviation facilities," Zarif said. "These will be recorded in the list of U.S. crimes against the Iranian people."
Asked about the ex-minister's remarks on Democracy Now! Monday, Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said that "this is obviously a line that many in the government will take in Iran and point to the sanctions."
"But I think there's also another message that comes with this, which is that they're really pointing to this being an accident and this is an effort for them to put to rest any speculation that perhaps there was some foul play, whether it was internal players or external players," he added. "At this moment, for instance, they will be adamant about denying that Israel had anything to do with this, despite the fact that under normal circumstances, they would be rather quick to blame the Israelis."
Citing unnamed government officials, the Israeli Channel 13 reported Sunday that "the message Israel is sending to the countries of the world is that Tel Aviv has nothing to do with the incident."
In a statement to Reuters, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said that "we are closely following reports of a possible hard landing of a helicopter in Iran carrying the Iranian president and foreign minister."
The agency pointed out that the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters aboard Air Force One that U.S. President Joe Biden had been briefed on the situation but "she did not elaborate."
International condolences mounted on Monday. IRNA highlighted messages from Afghan, Chinese, Iraqi, Egyptian, Emirati, Jordanian, Lebanese, Malaysian, Palestinian, Pakistani, Philippine, Qatari, Saudi, Syrian, Tajik, Uzbek, and Yemeni officials. There were also comments from leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union as well as Azerbaijan, France, Kuwait, Poland, Turkey, and Russia.
Turkey's Anadolu Agency noted that "the Iranian Red Crescent Society announced early Monday that they had found the location of the wreckage... after it was detected by a Turkish Akinci unmanned aerial vehicle."
This post has been updated with comment from the National Iranian American Council.
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