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This was a generally solid jobs report, with the economy adding 253,000 jobs in April. However, there were sharp downward revisions to both the February and March jobs numbers, of 78,000 and 71,000, respectively. Taken together, the April figure is just 104,000 higher than the number previously reported for March.
The household survey also showed a very positive picture, with the overall unemployment rate edging down to 3.4 percent, a half-century low. The unemployment rate for Black workers fell to 4.7 percent, a new record low. The unemployment rate for Black men over age 20 also hit a record low of 4.5 percent. The previous low, before this recovery, for overall Black unemployment was 5.3 percent and for Black men it was 5.1 percent. The unemployment rate for Black teens fell to 12.9 percent, tying the record low hit in September.
Falling Hours Partially Offset Rising Employment
The average workweek was unchanged from March, but it is down from January and February. As a result, the index of aggregate hours has actually fallen at an annual rate of 0.7 percent since January. The January data were likely anomalous, but the index of aggregate hours has risen at less than a 0.9 percent annual rate since October; this is certainly a sustainable pace in the growth of labor demand.
Wage Growth Accelerates in April
There was a big jump in the average hourly earnings in April, which brought the annualized rate of growth over the last three months to 4.2 percent. This is still considerably slower than the 6.4 percent rate seen at the start of 2022, but likely somewhat faster than is consistent with the Fed’s 2.0 percent. This is somewhat faster growth than had been reported in March, but the prior months’ data has been revised upward.
It is worth noting that the wage growth being reported in the Average Hourly Earning (AHE) series is somewhat slower than the 4.8 percent rate reported in the Employment Cost Index. This gap could be the result of error in the data, but, if it is real, it would imply that the change in composition is reducing average wage growth. (The gap is still there if we do an apples to apples comparison looking at ECI for private sector wages.) That would mean we are seeing less employment in higher paying industries and occupations, and more employment in lower paying ones.
If that is the case and this shift is persisting, as opposed to being a peculiar development associated with reopening from the pandemic, as was the case in 2021, we would likely be more interested in the AHE data. This would indicate the increase in average hourly wages in the economy as a whole. Insofar as workers are moving into lower paying positions, these are presumably also lower productivity positions. If we are trying to determine the impact of wage growth on inflation, we want to see how wages increase relative to productivity. Since the latter is affected by changes in composition, we want a wage measure that is also affected by changes in composition.
Share of Unemployment Due to Voluntary Quits Fall Again
The share of unemployment due to voluntary quits falls to 13.8 percent, well below 2019 peaks and only slightly higher than 13.6 percent average for the year. By this measure, the labor market is still strong, but very much within the normal range. It had peaked at 15.8 percent in September.
Share of Short-Term Unemployed Falls Sharply
After rising in February and March, the share of the unemployed who have been out of work less than five weeks fell sharply in April, from 38.9 percent to 33.2 percent. While having more long-term unemployed would ordinarily be bad news, if we are seeing a recession coming on, there has to be an increase in short-term unemployment before there can be an increase in long-term unemployment. We are not seeing any evidence of this to date.
Wage Growth Continues to be Fastest for Lower Paid Workers
Throughout the recovery, lower paid workers have higher than average wage growth. That trend is continuing. The average hourly wage for production and non-supervisory workers overall, as well as in the low-paying leisure and hospitality sector, increased at a 4.7 percent annual rate over the last three months.
Employment to Population Ratio for Prime Age Workers Rise to Post Pandemic Highs
The overall prime age (25 to 54) employment to population ratio rose by 0.1 pp in April to 80.8 percent, 0.2 pp above pre-pandemic peak. For women, there was a 0.2 pp increase in April to 75.1 percent. This is 0.4 pp above its pre-pandemic peak. The rate for men fell by 0.1 pp to 86.4 percent, 0.4 pp below its pre-pandemic peak.
Professional and Technical Services and Health Care Lead Job Growth
The professional and technical services category added 45,000 jobs in April, while health care added 39,600 jobs. Job growth in restaurants slowed, with the sector adding just 24,800 jobs in the month. Hotels added just 200 jobs. Restaurant employment is still 0.7 percent below its pre-pandemic level. Hotel employment is down by 11.9 percent.
Manufacturing and Construction Add Jobs, After Small Losses in March
Construction (including residential construction) and manufacturing both added jobs in April, after small losses in March. Construction added 15,000 jobs, with residential construction adding 14,200. Manufacturing added 11,000. This is noteworthy, since these sectors are historically the most cyclical. The jobs numbers show no evidence of a recession, although the index of aggregate hours in both sectors is down from January.
Nursing Homes and Child Care Both Add Jobs
As low-paying sectors with difficult work, employment in both nursing homes and child care has lagged in the recovery. Nursing homes added 2,600 jobs in April, while child care facilities added 2,400. Employment in the two sectors is now down by 11.9 and 5.1 percent, respectively.
Labor Market Remains Solid, but Sustainable
The overall picture in the April employment report is incredibly positive. Unemployment is at a half-century low and Black unemployment is the lowest on record. We are still adding jobs, but the demand for labor as measured by the growth rate in hours worked is very much at a sustainable pace.
Wage growth may still be somewhat more rapid than is consistent with the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, but it is only modestly higher than what we saw in 2019, when inflation was at roughly 2.0 percent. If the Fed’s rate hikes don’t due too much damage going forward, and we don’t see serious fallout from the banking crisis, the labor market looks great.
The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) was established in 1999 to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. In order for citizens to effectively exercise their voices in a democracy, they should be informed about the problems and choices that they face. CEPR is committed to presenting issues in an accurate and understandable manner, so that the public is better prepared to choose among the various policy options.
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Citing 'Astronomical' Cost in US, Graham Platner and Wife Head to Norway for Affordable IVF Treatment
"Amy and I's life has taken an incredible turn," says Platner, filmed sitting with his wife in their home in Maine, as the video begins.
"We have been all over the state of Maine, from Ogunquit to Madawasca, from Rumford to Callis, holding well over 30 town halls" over recent months, he explains. "But in the background, we've also been trying to do something else, something we've been trying to do for a couple of years, and that has been to start a family."
"One round here in the States is $25,000. One round in Norway is $5,500 bucks. Even when you add on plane tickets, it's incomparable." —Graham Platner, candidate for US Senate
Watch:
Throughout his campaign for Senate, Platner, a military veteran who has benefited from the VA health system, has consistently called out the social injustice and economic backwardness of the nation's dominant for-profit healthcare system. Backing Medicare for All, Platner has said a single-payer system—with no co-pays, profit motives from giant insurers, and free medical care at point of service—is "the answer," a profoundly better way to manage the health needs of Americans, especially working people.
"I don't think we should live in a system where only the wealthy can afford healthcare," Platner said at a campaign event last year.
In December, just before the New Year, he said, "I will fight for Medicare for All in the Senate. Until we win it, I’ll back every bill that expands Medicare and Medicaid, cuts prescription drug costs, and puts the healthcare needs of the working class first."
In Saturday's announcement about their infertility journey and where it's headed next, the couple explain that they first looked at the VA to see if that would be a viable pathway to make the IVF process—which can cost $25,000 per round of treatment—more affordable.
Unfortunately, they found out, as Amy explains, that because "the infertility was something that was part of my body" and less so of Graham's, the VA system would not cover the treatments.
"We're going to have to have a conversation in the Senate, by the way," Graham said of that dynamic. "It takes two people. If you wanna have a kid, it's not a one-person job."
But while the VA's denial may have been the "end of the road," feared Amy, her doctor told her about other patients who have sought treatment abroad, where IVF treatments can be a fraction of the cost—a familiar pattern when it comes to what people in other countries pay for care, treatments, and prescription drugs compared to the United States.
Given Amy's assertion that she wanted to have a baby of her own "ever since I knew that it was something the female body was capable of doing," the idea of going to Norway arrived as a lifeline.
"To watch the woman that I love, who I want to start a family with, go through this experience of infertility," says Graham in the video. "I can see how it impacts her. I have so much respect and so much ... I'm so impressed at how you've been able to handle it."
Ultimately, it was the affordability dynamic, they explain, that led them to take the idea of going abroad seriously.
"One round here in the States is $25,000. One round in Norway is 5,500 bucks," Graham explains. "Even when you add on plane tickets, it's incomparable."
"Not to get political," he continues, "but it's a real indication of how flawed our healthcare system is. For us, the Senate campaign is a way of making sure that other people do not have to go through the exact same things that we've been through, where we can help build power in order to go get things that working people in this country need, like a universal healthcare system that provides fertility support."
Graham and Amy first spoke about their trip with local journalist Jesse Ellison with the Midcoast Villager for a story published on Thursday. In their conversation with the local paper, they both spoke of how the deeply personal struggle of trying to get pregnant is not at all divorced from the very real reasons that they both decided to back Graham's run for Senate.
From Ellison's reporting:
“It’s less about the VA and more about the fact that IVF is unaffordable for regular working-class people in this country,” Platner told me. “The concept of insurance companies not covering infertility treatment is why we need universal health care. Our story of infertility is just another example among many stories, we know we aren’t the only people struggling with this.” And so the two of them decided to talk about this choice publicly, too. Because if flying to Norway, spending two weeks in an Airbnb, and paying out-of-pocket for health care makes more financial sense than getting care here in America, well, that says something in and of itself.
For her part, Amys says, "I really wanted to share the story with any of you who have experienced infertility. I don't know if I have all of the answers or if sharing this story makes you feel like you're part of a community of infertility, but I hope that this can offer you some hope."
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