More Signs of Distress in Trump Economy as Inflation, Jobless Claims Rise

New economic data released on Thursday revealed fresh signs of stress for the US economy and working families.

A new Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) found that overall inflation rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, while core inflation—a measure that excludes commodities such as food and energy—rose 3.1%, the highest reading recorded since this past January.

Both of these numbers were in line with economists' consensus estimates, although they still showed inflation trending in the wrong direction during a time when the US labor market is also showing signs of weakness.

Looking deeper into the report reveals that the cost of groceries continues to be a major pain point for US consumers, as food prices jumped by 0.6% on the month and 2.7% year-over-year.

The report comes days after US President Donald Trump said in a radio interview, "We have no inflation. Prices are down on just about everything."

New York Times economics reporter Ben Casselman said that the spike in food prices was notable because it came after a long period in which food inflation had been coming down.

"Grocery prices are once again rising relatively rapidly," he observed in a social media post. "Food inflation had eased significantly, and had been running well below overall prices, but that's no longer true."

Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, singled out some particularly important household staples in the report that she argued were very likely being impacted by President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Among other things, Long said that coffee was now 21% more expensive than it was a year ago, while living room and dining room furniture saw a 10% year-over-year increase, and the price of toilet paper rose by an annualized 5%.

"The middle-class squeeze from tariffs is here," she said. "Inflation hit 2.9% in August, the highest since January and up from 2.3% in April. It's troubling that so many basic necessities are rising in price again: Food, gas, clothing, and shelter all had big cost jumps in August. And this is only the beginning."

Mike Konczal, senior director of policy and research at the Economic Security Project and a former member of President Joe Biden's National Economic Council, said that the new report shows "inflation is broadening" given that the "percent of items that had at least a 3% annualized price increase over the last month" increased to nearly 60%, which is the highest percentage seen in years.

The inflation report was not the only troubling economic indicator, however.

The BLS also revealed that jobless claims in the US jumped to 263,000 last week, which was significantly higher than the 235,000 claims expected by economists. Joe Weisenthal, the co-host of the Bloomberg "Odd Lots" podcast, noted that this was the highest total for weekly jobless claims in nearly four years.

Long also flagged the worrying jobless claims number and predicted that it was just the start of a further downturn in the US economy.

"'Cost cutting' is back among CEOs and that is corporate speak for more layoffs," she said. "It's going to be a rough few months ahead as the tariffs impacts work their way through the economy. Americans will experience higher prices and (likely) more layoffs."