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COP29 host country priming the pumps for a huge hike in gas production
LONDON
Azerbaijan, host of next year’s COP climate summit, is set to boost its gas production by a third over the next decade, with fossil fuel companies forecast to spend $41.4 billion on the country’s gas fields, according to new analysis.
Azerbaijan’s top foreign gas investors include BP, TotalEnergies and Iran’s national oil company, as well as Lukoil – Russia’s largest private oil and gas producer. Together these companies are forecast to spend $16.8 billion on their Azeri fossil gas operations over the next ten years, according to Global Witness analysis of Rystad Energy data.
Overall, the $41.4 billion that fossil fuel firms are set to spend on Azeri gas would pay the cost of installing more than 1,170 offshore wind turbines.
Azerbaijan is set to increase its gas production by a third, from 37 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2024 to 49 bcm in 2033, according to Rystad data. In total, fossil fuel companies are forecast to extract 411 bcm of Azeri gas over the next 10 years. This would emit 781 million tonnes of carbon dioxide – more than two times the annual carbon emissions of the UK.
Despite Azerbaijan having one of the world’s most corrupt and repressive regimes, last year Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, signed a pact with Azerbaijan’s dictator Ilham Aliyev to double the country’s gas exports to the EU by 2027.
The agreement aims to reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian gas exports, even though Lukoil was Azerbaijan’s third largest gas producer when the deal was signed – accounting for 15% of the country’s output according to Rystad – and is set to remain a significant player well past the EU’s 2027 deadline for quitting Russian gas.
Lukoil holds a 19.99% stake in Azerbaijan’s giant Shah Deniz field, which exports gas to Europe via a pipeline that Lukoil also owns a share of. The company has contributed billions to Russia’s state coffers, which are being used to wage war in Ukraine.
Dominic Eagleton, senior campaigner at Global Witness, said:
“Drug dealers don’t fix drug addictions, and petrostates won't fix the climate crisis. As we hurtle towards climate collapse, we’re now being asked to put our future in the hands of Azerbaijan, a petrostate that’s propped up by oil supermajors and is massively increasing its gas production. We need climate policymaking to be run by climate leaders, not countries with a vested interest in keeping the world hooked on oil and gas.”
Global Witness wrote to Lukoil to seek its comments on our findings. The company had not given a response by the time of publication.
Methodology
Data on forecast gas production in Azerbaijan were sourced from energy business intelligence agency Rystad Energy’s UCube database. UCube is an integrated field-by-field database of the global upstream oil and gas market, covering the time span from 1900 to 2100. Rystad’s data is widely referenced by major oil and gas companies, the media and international bodies such as the IEA.
UCube takes into account oil and gas demand to forecast asset-level supply. Forecasts are based on data sources including company reporting (e.g. earnings and profits reporting) and policies, government sources, energy agencies, academic research and news articles.
We sourced the data of operated gas production in Azerbaijan from 2024-2033. The data includes all assets that are currently producing, those under development (assets for which development has been approved but production has not yet started), and discovered (assets where discoveries have been made, but are not yet in a phase of further development).
The production data covers fossil gas only. We excluded data on forecast gas condensate production, making these conservative production estimates.
Emissions calculations are based on the widely used metric of 1.9 kg CO2 emissions per cubic metre of fossil gas consumed. The emissions figures do not factor in greenhouse gas emissions from gas production, processing and transport, making them conservative estimates.
The figure for offshore wind turbines is based on IRENA (2023) ‘Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022’.
Detailed methodology and data are available on request.
Many of the world's worst environmental and human rights abuses are driven by the exploitation of natural resources and corruption in the global political and economic system. Global Witness is campaigning to end this. We carry out hard-hitting investigations, expose these abuses, and campaign for change. We are independent, not-for-profit, and work with partners around the world in our fight for justice.
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'Unbearable and Horrific Massacre': IDF Kills Dozens in Tent City Bombing
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Sep 10, 2024
The Israeli military bombed Gaza's overcrowded tent city of al-Mawasi early Tuesday morning in its latest attack on a supposed "safe zone," killing dozens of people and intensifying anger at the countries enabling the assault—principally the United States.
Video footage from the scene shows rescue workers transporting wounded people to barely functioning nearby hospitals as others desperately searched for bodies buried under sand.
The Israeli military claimed it was targeting Hamas militants and used "precise munitions" in an effort to mitigate civilian harm, but observers said the massive craters left by the attack were consistent with 2,000-pound MK-84 bombs supplied in large numbers by the United States. The Biden administration has transported thousands of the bombs to Israel since the October 7 Hamas-led attack.
Maha Hussaini, strategy director at the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor, said in the wake of Tuesday's attack that "in an overcrowded camp where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians are scattered in makeshift tents, even the smallest bomb can cause immense damage and numerous casualties."
"Now, imagine the devastation when the Israeli occupation army uses three U.S.-made MK-84 bombs on them," Hussaini added.
Horrifying scenes from the israeli massacre of displaced Palestinian families in Mawasi, west Khan Younis: who in God’s name bombs tents pic.twitter.com/1sBEG7vUb9
— Sarah Wilkinson (@swilkinsonbc) September 10, 2024
A spokesperson for Gaza's civil defense said the Israeli attack destroyed dozens of tents, killed at least 40 people, and wounded over 60 more.
"Entire families disappeared... under the sand, in deep holes," the official said. Reutersnoted that "tents in the surrounding area had been completely incinerated, leaving only their metal frames dusted with ghostly ash in a wasteland littered with debris."
The Israel Defense Forces said its target was a "command center" that Hamas purportedly established in the designated humanitarian zone, which Israeli forces have repeatedly attacked. Hamas denied its fighters were in the area and said the Israeli bombing killed mostly women and children.
The Associated Pressreported that one of its camera operators "saw three large craters at the scene, where first responders and displaced people were sifting through the sand and rubble with garden tools and their bare hands by the light of mobile phones."
"They pulled body parts from the sand, including what appeared to be a human leg," the outlet reported. "Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, one of three hospitals to receive casualties, said around two dozen bodies were brought in from the strike. An Associated Press cameraman saw 10 bodies in the hospital's morgue, including two children and three women."
U.S.-based advocacy groups said the attack was the latest example of the Biden administration's complicity in Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip, which has killed more than 41,000 people and sparked mass starvation.
"The U.S. continues sending the Israeli government the bombs and warplanes it uses to slaughter Palestinians," said Jewish Voice for Peace Action. "Now, another unbearable and horrific massacre of forcibly displaced Palestinians who were sheltering in a tent encampment. STOP ARMING ISRAEL."
Nihad Awad, national executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), said in a statement that "the far-right genocidal Israeli government continues to use its one-ton Biden bombs to massacre Palestinians as if they were sheep for the slaughter, not human beings deserving life and freedom."
"The continued military and financial support for Israel's genocide by President Biden will live in the memories of the survivors of these massacres and in the hearts of their loved ones for generations to come," said Awad. "If the Biden administration does not radically change course now by forcing a cease-fire on Netanyahu, it will be clear that it does not seem to have a shred of humanity left and that no crime will stop it from enabling the Gaza genocide."
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Israel Lobbies US Congress to Pressure South Africa to Drop ICJ Genocide Case
One human rights expert said Israel's effort to bully South Africa is born from "obviously fearing it will lose" its World Court trial.
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Israeli officials are lobbying U.S. lawmakers to pressure South Africa into dropping its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, according to a report published Monday.
Axiossaid it obtained a classified Israeli Foreign Ministry cable sent Monday to the country's embassy in Washington, D.C. and all its U.S. consulates threatening consequences if South Africa proceeds with its case in The Hague—which is backed by dozens of nations and regional blocs, as well as countless legal and genocide experts.
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As Axios reported:
The Israeli diplomats were instructed to ask members of Congress to issue public statements condemning South Africa's actions against Israel and threaten that it could lead tosuspending U.S. trade relations with South Africa. That's unlikely to happen because the U.S. wants to maintain its relationship with South Africa in order to counter the influence of Russia and China.
According to the report, Israeli officials are hoping that South Africa's new coalition government—the country's first to not be led by the leftist African National Congress since the beginning of post-apartheid majority rule—will eschew "boycotts and punishments" and prove more malleable.
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South Africa filed its genocide case against Israel in December, alleging that statements and actions by Israeli government officials and armed forces "are genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part" of the Palestinian population in violation of Article II of the Genocide Convention.
A final ICJ ruling is not expected for years. Israel says the case is "baseless" and has accused South Africa of "functioning as the legal arm of Hamas," which led the attacks in which more than 1,100 Israelis and others were killed—at least some by so-called "friendly fire"—last October 7. More than 240 other people were kidnapped and taken to Gaza.
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In January, the ICJ ordered Israel to "take all measures within its power" to uphold its obligations under Article II of the Genocide Convention. Israel's far-right government and military have been accused by human rights groups of ignoring the order.
As Israeli forces launched a major ground invasion of Rafah four months later, the ICJ issued another order for Israel to "immediately halt its military offensive" in the city, where around 1.5 million forcibly displaced and local Palestinian residents were sheltering. Instead of heeding the order, Israel ramped up its assault on Rafah.
At the International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan is urging the tribunal to promptly act upon his May application for warrants to arrest Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and three Hamas leaders—at least one of whom, political chief Ismail Haniyeh, was subsequently assassinated by Israel.
Israeli and U.S. officials have threatened ICC members with retaliation if the tribunal issues arrest warrants for Israeli leaders. In June, 42 House Democrats joined Republican lawmakers in passing legislation to sanction ICC jurists in the event they authorize the Israeli leaders' arrest.
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"White supremacist and antidemocratic movements have always used the claim that so-called Black savages are coming to destroy, especially when political power is up for grabs," said one critic. "This is no different."
Sep 09, 2024
U.S. vice presidential candidate JD Vance and other Republicans including congressional lawmakers and Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of the X social media platform, were excoriated Monday for spreading unsubstantiated rumors that Haitian immigrants are killing and eating pets and park wildlife in an Ohio town.
Vance, who is also the junior U.S. senator from Ohio,
wrote Monday on X—formerly known as Twitter—that "months ago, I raised the issue of Haitian illegal immigrants draining social services and generally causing chaos all over Springfield, Ohio."
"Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn't be in this country," he added. "Where is our border czar?"
Haitians were also accused of killing and eating ducks and geese in the city's Snyder Park. However, a photo
purportedly showing a Haitian immigrant walking down a Springfield street carrying a dead bird was actually of an American and was taken in Columbus, Ohio—nearly 50 miles away.
The cat rumor originated nearly 100 miles away in Canton, Ohio, where a mentally ill woman—also an American—was
arrested last month for allegedly killing and eating a cat.
During a July Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing, Vance read a letter from Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck, a Republican, highlighting some of the challenges faced by municipal officials struggling to accommodate thousands of Haitian immigrants.
Nowhere in the letter are pet-eating Haitians mentioned. Both Heck and Springfield police officials have
refuted the rumor.
"We wish to clarify that there have been no credible reports or specific claims of pets being harmed, injured, or abused by individuals within the immigrant community," Heck
toldThe Hill. "Additionally, there have been no verified instances of immigrants engaging in illegal activities such as squatting or littering in front of residents' homes."
By the time mainstream media outlets began debunking the rumor, it had already gone viral. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
posted a meme showing two scared kittens with the caption, "Pease vote for Trump so Haitian immigrants don't eat us."
Musk, meanwhile,
reposted an AI-generated meme published by House Judiciary Committee Republicans showing Trump hugging animals with the caption, "Protect our ducks and kittens in Ohio!"
Many observers reacted with disgust to the rumor-spreading Republicans.
"In MAGA world, the alleged pet-eating is already a matter of fact, and Republican elected officials, including Vance, are hurrying to join the clout rush, the scramble to get attention and likes and followers by treating it as a serious issue," wroteWashington Post columnist Philip Bump.
"This is a central reason that Vance and others on the right are susceptible to being described as 'weird,'" Bump added. "There's an online world in which things get taken to the nth-degree because its economy rewards that sort of hyperbole. But then these obsessions and claims are taken out of that bubble and presented to everyone else and they don't hold up. What else can you do but marvel at how strange it all is?"
Erik Crew, staff attorney at the Haitian Bridge Alliance, an advocacy group,
toldThe Hill that "this is the same old anti-Black playbook that we've seen for hundreds of years in Ohio being rolled out to divide and create hate, especially around election times."
Crew continued:
White supremacist and antidemocratic movements have always used the claim that so-called Black savages are coming to destroy, especially when political power is up for grabs. This is no different. This time they are saying it is Haitians, and this time it is being used to try to score political points around immigration as well.
The fact is Haitian immigrants have been coming to Springfield seeking to come and contribute to U.S. democracy and the economy, and Springfield and Ohio will benefit from that like U.S. communities have benefited in the past from Black immigrants' contributions.
"The fact is the rumors about Haitians in Springfield and pets have already been debunked, but we won't stop hearing them because certain people will want to keep spreading them as the election nears," he added.
Dave Zirin, sports editor at
The Nation, was more blunt in his reaction.
"You are a racist piece of shit," he
wrote to Vance on X. "You lie like Trump without an inkling of his twisted charisma."
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