New Paper Finds That Oil Price Decline Doesn't Threaten Venezuelan Economic Growth

For Immediate Release

Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR)
Contact: 

Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460

New Paper Finds That Oil Price Decline Doesn't Threaten Venezuelan Economic Growth

Country Unlikely to Face Foreign Exchange Constraints

WASHINGTON - Venezuela's
economy is unlikely to face serious problems due to the drop in oil
prices, and the Venezuelan government should have plenty of room to
conduct the sort of fiscal stimulus policies being employed by nations
such as the U.S., the U.K., and China, in order to mitigate the effects
of the global downturn, according to a new paper from the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
The paper finds that even if oil prices were to fall as low as $50 per
barrel, Venezuela would still have trade surpluses through 2010.
However, oil industry analysts are projecting prices in the range of
$80-$90 for the next two years.

"The data show that Venezuela is well-situated to pursue
counter-cyclical, i.e. expansionary macroeconomic policies - especially
a fiscal stimulus package - to counteract the global downturn," said
CEPR Co-Director, Mark Weisbrot, lead author of the paper.

The paper, "Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy," by Mark Weisbrot and Rebecca Ray, considers a range of projected prices for Venezuela's oil exports, and finds that:

 

  •  With
    oil at $90 per barrel, Venezuela would run a trade surplus between
    $46.4 and 55.2 billion , or a very large 13 to 16 percent of GDP in
    2009, and 11.6 to 13.9 percent of GDP in 2010.
  • Oil
    at $80 barrel would still produce a huge trade surplus of 10.4 to 12.6
    percent of GDP for 2009, and 9.0 to 11.1 percent of GDP for 2010.
  • At $70 a barrel, this surplus is still large at 7.7 to 9.6 percent of GDP for 2009, and 6.4 to 8.3 percent of GDP for 2010.
  • At $60 a barrel, this surplus is reduced to 4.6 to 6.6 percent of GDP for 2009, and 3.9 to 5.4 percent of GDP for 2010.
  • Even
    at $50 per barrel, Venezuela would still run trade surpluses through
    2010. However, this is considered to be an extremely unlikely scenario
    by economists who forecast oil prices.

For 2008, Venezuela is running an estimated current account surplus of more than 13 percent of GDP.

 "Developing countries have often refrained from implementing the
appropriate fiscal and monetary policies that they need to stimulate
their economies during a recession, due to foreign exchange
constraints," Weisbrot said. "But Venezuela is far from experiencing
such constraints now, and is unlikely to run into them in the
foreseeable future."

 

 

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The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. CEPR's Advisory Board of Economists includes Nobel Laureate economists Robert Solow and Joseph Stiglitz; Richard Freeman, Professor of Economics at Harvard University; and Eileen Appelbaum, Professor and Director of the Center for Women and Work at Rutgers University.

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