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paul krugman
'Absolutely Massive' Price Shocks Coming as Trump's Iran War Drives Up Gas, Diesel Prices
"What should really terrify Republicans is... the futures price on wholesale gasoline," said economist Paul Krugman.
Mar 04, 2026
President Donald Trump's unprovoked attack on Iran has sent oil prices surging, and it's already hurting Americans at the gas pump.
Petroleum industry analyst Patrick De Haan reported on Wednesday that the average US price for diesel has hit $4 per gallon, the highest it's been since April 2024.
De Haan also projected that the price of diesel would keep rising in the coming days before eventually reaching a price in the range of $4.25 to $4.45 per gallon.
The average price of gasoline is now approaching $3.20 per gallon, De Haan reported, and is projected to rise to at least $3.30 per gallon in the coming days. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, average US gas prices haven't been that high since September 2024.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman on Wednesday flagged data showing that the price of Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) gasoline futures contracts has been going through the roof since the start of the Iran war.
"What should really terrify Republicans is RBOB—the futures price on wholesale gasoline," Krugman commented. "This is up 75 cents a gallon since its low earlier this year."
According to a Wednesday report at Market Watch, researchers at the investment bank Goldman Sachs this week raised their price forecast for Brent crude oil for the second quarter of 2026 to $76 per barrel, an increase of $10.
What's more, Market Watch noted, Goldman is projecting that the price of Brent crude could hit $100 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the next five weeks due to the war.
Goldman isn't the only investment bank projecting sky-high oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for a prolonged period, as JPMorgan Chase earlier this week projected that the price of Brent crude could top $120 if the Iran conflict drags on, according to a Monday report from Market Watch.
Robert Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Global Economy and Development program, said in an interview with Seeking Alpha that global investors at the moment seem to be underestimating the economic risks of a prolonged conflict with Iran, citing "a weird tendency in markets to downplay unexpected shocks when they happen.”
However, Brooks told Seeking Alpha that what's happening with the global oil market right now "is absolutely massive" and should not be ignored.
Trump so far has not outlined any end game for the war he started, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday boasted that the Trump administration was "playing for keeps" by delivering "death and destruction from the sky all day" on Iran.
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'More Chaos': Trump Hammered for Plan to Double Down on Tariffs After Supreme Court Ruling
"Donald Trump illegally stole your money," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren. "He should give it back to you."
Feb 20, 2026
President Donald Trump defiantly vowed to continue slapping tariffs on imported goods on Friday after the US Supreme Court overturned the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs he implemented last year.
In a press conference held hours after the Supreme Court ruled against the president's tariff regime, Trump said that he had other tools at his disposal that allowed him to hit foreign products with taxes.
Among other things, Trump said he was going to issue a 10% global tariff using his authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 that allows the president to levy tariffs to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits with foreign nations.
However, as a Friday analysis by the libertarian Cato Institute explains, any tariffs enacted through Section 122 expire after 150 days without authorization from Congress, which in theory could put vulnerable congressional Republicans on the spot to vote for or against the president's signature policy this summer right before the 2026 midterm elections.
The president's decision to plow ahead with his politically unpopular tariffs drew immediate criticism from Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), who said during an interview with MS NOW that Trump was creating even more economic uncertainty.
"What he's done is just doubled down and tried to make it worse," Klobuchar explained, "which, of course, is going to create more cost and chaos for the American people."
Klobuchar: "The scariest part from his press conference, in addition to the continued assault on the rule of law and the Constitution, is that he plans to continue doing this ... [but] I think you're starting to see bipartisan opposition to the president's tariffs, which would… pic.twitter.com/pqniYagtyW
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 20, 2026
Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman also predicted more chaos in the months to come from Trump's trade policies, particularly when it comes to businesses that will now lobby to get back the money illegally seized from them by the president's unconstitutional tariff regime.
Writing on his Substack, Krugman argued that Trump finding alternative means to levy tariffs would not "obviate the need to refund the tariffs already collected," because "if you seized money without constitutional authority, finding other revenue sources going forward doesn’t make the original seizure legal."
David Frum, staff writer at The Atlantic, predicted that the coming lawsuits aimed at getting refunds for the illegal tariffs would be a massive mess.
"The post-tariff litigation is going to be nightmarish," he wrote on social media. "Wrongfully taxed plaintiffs will now sue for return of their illegally taken money. Can their customers then sue for a portion of the higher prices caused by the wrongful taxes? More Trump chaos."
However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the possibility of American businesses and consumers getting refunded for the tariffs.
While speaking at the Economic Club of Dallas on Friday, Bessent was asked if he expected a "food fight" for the $175 billion in tariff revenues that government has illegally collected since April.
"I've got a feeling the American people won't see it," Bessent said of the tariff money.
Bessent: I got a feeling the American people won't see the $175 billion in tariff revenue we collected pic.twitter.com/rj0Bmm0Exg
— FactPost (@factpostnews) February 20, 2026
However, some Democrats indicated that they were not simply going to let the administration getting away with money they unlawfully confiscated from US businesses and consumers.
"Donald Trump illegally stole your money," wrote Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). "He should give it back to you. Instead Trump is scheming up new ways to force Americans to pay even more."
Democrats on the US House Ways and Means Committee wrote that "Trump does not want to refund the money he illegally stole from you," vowing the party "won't stop fighting to get your money back."
Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker wrote Trump a letter after the Supreme Court ruling demanding that the president provide every family in his state a $1,700 refund for the tariffs, which he said "wreaked havoc on farmers, enraged our allies, and sent grocery prices through the roof."
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Latest GDP Figures Show Rich Reaping Rewards as Working Class Continues to Suffer Under Trump
"People at the top are doing fine, people in the middle and lower income brackets are struggling a bit, to say the least."
Dec 24, 2025
President Donald Trump's allies this week hyped up newly released data showing that the US economy grew by more than 4% in the third quarter of 2025, but economists and journalists who dove into the report's finer details found some troubling signs.
Ron Insana, a finance reporter and a former hedge fund manager, told MS Now's Stephanie Ruhle on Tuesday night that there is a "split economy" in which growth is being driven primarily by spending from the top 20% of income earners, whom he noted accounted for 63% of all spending in the economy.
On the other side, Insana pointed to retail sales data that painted a very different picture for those on the lower end of the income scale.
"When you look at lower income individuals, nearly half of them are using 'buy-now-pay-later' for their holiday shopping," he said. "So we have this real split... People at the top are doing fine, people in the middle and lower income brackets are struggling a bit, to say the least."
Dean Baker, co-founder and senior economist of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, also took note of this split in the US economy, and he cited the latest data showing that real gross domestic income, which more directly measures worker compensation over total economic output, grew at just 2.4% during the third quarter.
Baker also said that most of the gains in gross domestic income showed up at the top of the income ladder, while workers' income growth remained stagnant.
The theme of a split economy also showed up in an analysis from Politico financial services reporter Sam Sutton published on Wednesday, which cited recent data from Bank of America showing that the bank's "top account holders saw take-home pay climb 4% over the last year, while income growth for poorer households grew just 1.4%."
Sutton said that this divergence in fortunes between America's wealthy and everyone else was showing up in polling that shows US voters sour on the state of the economy.
"In survey after survey, a majority of Americans say they’re straining under the pressure of rising living expenses and a softening job market," Sutton said. "The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston says low-income consumers have 'substantially' higher levels of credit card debt than they did before the pandemic. Even as growth and asset prices soar, Trump’s approval ratings are sagging."
Economist Paul Krugman on Tuesday argued in his Substack newsletter that one reason for this large disparity in economic outcomes has to do with the US labor market, which has ground to a halt in recent months, lowering workers' options for employment and thus lowering their ability to push prospective employers for higher wages.
"Trump may claim that we are economically 'the hottest country in the world,' but the truth is that we last had a hot labor market back in 2023-4," Krugman explained. "At this point, by contrast, we have a 'frozen' job market in which workers who aren’t already employed are having a very hard time finding new jobs, a sharp contrast with the Biden years during which workers said it was very easy to find a new job."
None of these caveats about the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data stopped US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick from going on Fox News on Tuesday night and falsely claiming that a 4.3% rise in GDP meant that "Americans overall—all of us—are going to earn 4.3% more money."
Lutnick: The US economy grew 4.3%. What that means is that Americans overall—all of us—are going to earn 4.3% more money. pic.twitter.com/SIFi99NRBX
— Acyn (@Acyn) December 24, 2025
In reality, GDP is a sum of a nation's consumer spending, government spending, net exports, and total investments, and is not directly correlated with individuals' personal income.
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