June, 07 2020, 12:00am EDT
For Immediate Release
Contact:
Tillie McInnis,Domestic Communications Coordinator,202-293-5380 x117,E-mail,Dan Beeton,International Communications Coordinator,202-239-1460,E-mail
WASHINGTON
Nearly eight months after incumbent Bolivian president Evo Morales was ousted in a coup d'etat amid allegations of electoral fraud, The New York Times reports that the Organization of American States' (OAS) claims of fraud in the November 2019 general elections "relied on incorrect data and inappropriate statistical techniques."
The Times article focuses on a new report from Nicolas Idrobo, Dorothy Kronick, and Francisco Rodriguez. The report, which uses detailed electoral data previously unavailable to researchers outside of the OAS, refutes OAS claims that fraud altered the election results. For months, the OAS has resisted calls for it to release its data and methodology. The authors show that they were able to predict the final outcome of the election within three one-hundredths of a percentage point, using data from prior elections and votes counted before an election night interruption of the vote.
"For those paying close attention to the 2019 election, there was never any doubt that the OAS' claims of fraud were bogus," said Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) Research Associate Jake Johnston, coauthor of an 82-page report on the Bolivian election and the OAS audit of that election. "Just days after the election, a high-level official inside the OAS privately acknowledged to me that there had been no 'inexplicable' change in the trend, yet the organization continued to repeat its false assertions for many months with little to no pushback or accountability."
CEPR analysts, using publicly accessible electoral data, came to similar conclusions regarding the false nature of the OAS's claims in reports published in November 2019 and March 2020. On October 21, 2019, just one day after Bolivia's election, the OAS denounced -- without providing any evidence -- a "drastic" and "inexplicable" change in the trend of the vote count following an interruption of the transmission of the election results. At the time, CEPR was quick to note that the data simply did not back up the OAS claims. Nevertheless, on November 10 -- the day the OAS released an audit of the election reiterating its claims of an inexplicable change in the trend -- the Bolivian military called on Morales to resign, and the president sought asylum in Mexico. An unelected government remains in power today with the strong support of the country's military. The military's repression of anti-coup protests resulted in dozens of deaths and scores of arrests.
Comparing the last votes to be counted with the first 95 percent, the OAS had alleged a dramatic break in trend, favoring Morales. The new paper finds that this allegation resulted from a "coding error" on the part of Irfan Nooruddin, a Georgetown University professor whom the OAS contracted to conduct the statistical analysis. The paper's authors found they could only replicate the OAS' findings if they excluded a certain subset of voter tally sheets; if those sheets are included, the authors found zero evidence of any "discontinuity" in the election returns. "In this case, there is neither a jump nor an uptick in the trend of MAS's vote share in the final 5% of the count," the authors conclude.
"The OAS bears responsibility for the significant deterioration of the human rights situation in Bolivia since Morales's ouster," CEPR Co-Director Mark Weisbrot said. He noted that this was not the first time the OAS had played a damaging role in an electoral crisis, citing the 2010 elections in Haiti as an example. "If the OAS and Secretary General Luis Almagro are allowed to get away with such politically driven falsification of their electoral observation results again, this threatens not only Bolivian democracy but the democracy of any country where the OAS may be involved in elections in the future."
"While quantitative evidence was merely one of the findings of the OAS audit report," the paper's authors write, "it played--and continues to play--an outsize role in Bolivia's political crisis. It helped convict Morales of fraud in the court of public opinion. We find that this key piece of evidence is faulty and should be excluded."
The Times article, however, gives the OAS the benefit of the doubt, allowing the organization -- and the head of its electoral cooperation and observation department, Gerardo de Icaza -- to uncritically point to its other allegations of wrongdoing in the election. De Icaza is quoted as saying, "Statistics don't prove or disprove fraud. Hard evidence like falsified statements of polls and hidden I.T. structures do. And that is what we found."
CEPR's 82-page analysis of the OAS Final Report on the audit of the elections notes that the auditing company investigated the "unauthorized" server which was the subject of an alert and determined no data had been altered or manipulated. The OAS' audit never mentioned the alert or the subsequent investigation. "Falsified" tally sheets, CEPR's report points out, may in some cases be examples of people assisting with tally sheets in rural or other areas with relatively higher rates of illiteracy or areas where significant numbers of people may not speak Spanish, the only language used for the tally sheets.
"The OAS has already been caught in an obvious lie and failed to correct the record, even after their claims were repeatedly refuted," Weisbrot said. "Given this, there is simply no reason to accept the remaining OAS claims at face value."
CEPR's 82-page report published in March analyzes additional claims made in the OAS' audit of the elections. The report found that the OAS' audit did not provide any evidence that alleged irregularities altered the outcome of the election, or were part of an actual attempt to do so. Far from providing a neutral and independent assessment that could have provided greater clarity in the midst of a highly polarized environment, the audit represented an apparent attempt by the OAS to justify its previous actions -- including its repeated false claims about an "inexplicable" trend change of the vote. CEPR's previous statistical findings were replicated and confirmed by two researchers at the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
Idrobo, Kronick, and Rodriguez compare voting trends in the US with Bolivia, noting that in the US, "Young and nonwhite voters, who tend to vote Democrat, are more likely to cast mail-in and provisional ballots, which are more likely to be counted late. In Bolivia, too, compositional changes likely explain the shift in late-counted votes." They note "the incumbent's [Morales's] vote share increased with time all evening..."
New presidential elections have been scheduled for September 6, 2020. The OAS has once again been invited to observe the vote.
The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) was established in 1999 to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. In order for citizens to effectively exercise their voices in a democracy, they should be informed about the problems and choices that they face. CEPR is committed to presenting issues in an accurate and understandable manner, so that the public is better prepared to choose among the various policy options.
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Sen Van Hollen Says Netanyahu Spreading 'Flat Out Lies' About UNRWA
The Maryland senator defended the organization on CBS and said there was no evidence that it was a "proxy for Hamas."
Mar 17, 2024
U.S. Senator for Maryland Chris Van Hollen continued his defense of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East and its work in Gaza in an appearance on CBS News' "Face the Nation" on Sunday.
"The claim that Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu and others are making that somehow UNRWA is a proxy for Hamas are just flat out lies, that's a flat out lie," he told journalist Margaret Brennan.
The U.S. was one of many Western countries that paused funding for UNRWA after the agency announced in January that it had fired 12 staffers over Israeli allegations that they had been involved in Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel. However, some countries including Canada, Sweden, the European Union, and Australia have since restored funding. A report has also emerged that Israel tortured UNRWA staffers into falsely confessing to involvement in the Hamas attack.
"Netanyahu has wanted to get rid of UNRWA because he had seen them as a means to continue the hopes of the Palestinian people for a homeland of their own."
Van Hollen's remarks on Sunday come days after he argued for the restoration of UNRWA funds on the floor of the U.S. Senate and criticized Republican legislators who wanted to permanently end funds for the organization that supports some 6 million Palestinian refugees in countries across the Middle East, including around 2 million in Gaza.
During his speech, he pointed out that the Netanyahu government had not shared the underlying evidence that UNRWA staffers participated in October 7 with either UNRWA itself or the U.S. government. He also urged his colleagues to read a classified Director of National Intelligence report on Netanyahu's claims of UNRWA complicity with Hamas.
On "Face the Nation," Van Hollen said that the person in charge of operations on the ground in UNRWA was a 20-year U.S. Army veteran.
"You can be sure he is not in cahoots with Hamas," the senator told Brennan.
He also repeated claims that Netanyahu has wanted to eliminate UNRWA entirely since at least 2017.
"Netanyahu has wanted to get rid of UNRWA because he had seen them as a means to continue the hopes of the Palestinian people for a homeland of their own," Van Hollen said, adding that the right-wing Israeli leader's "primary objective" was preventing the formation of a Palestinian state.
However, the dismantling of UNRWA would be especially catastrophic amid Israel's ongoing bombardment and invasion of Gaza, which has killed more than 31,000 people and put the survivors at risk of famine. No other organization has the infrastructure in place to distribute the necessary aid.
"If you cut off funding for UNRWA in Gaza entirely, it means more people will starve, more people won't get the medial assistance they need, and so it would be a huge mistake," Van Hollen said.
He also said that only 14 of the agency's 13,000-strong staff in Gaza had been accused of participating in the October 7 attack.
"We should investigate it, we should hold all those people accountable, but for goodness' sake, let's not hold 2 million innocent Palestinian civilians who are dying of starvation... accountable for the bad acts of 14 people."
Van Hollen also repeated his call for President Joe Biden to condition the sale of offensive military weapons to Israel on the country obeying international law and allowing aid into Gaza. While Israel sent the U.S. a letter saying it was in compliance with the law, "the day it was signed, clearly the Netanyahu government is not in compliance, because we see that they're continuing to restrict humanitarian assistance," he told Brennan.
Also on "Face the Nation" Sunday, United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Chief Executive Catherine Russell described the impact that a lack of aid was having on the children of Gaza.
"We know now that children are dying of malnutrition in Gaza," she told Brennan.
Russell said that not enough aid was reaching those who needed it, calling both air drops and sea deliveries "a drop in the bucket."
She also called for greater transparency into what was actually happening in Gaza and the difficulties of delivering aid.
"The world should be able to see what's happening and make their own judgments about what's going on," Russell said.
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Gore Calls Out Fossil Fuel Industry 'Shamelessness' in Lying to Public
"They are continuing to do similar things today to try to fool people and pull the wool over people's eyes just in the name of greed," the former vice president said.
Mar 17, 2024
In reflecting on nearly 50 years of climate advocacy, former Vice President Al Gore said that he had "underestimated" the greed of the fossil fuel industry.
The remarks came in an interview published in USA Today on Sunday. When asked if he had any regrets, Gore responded that he had "put every ounce of energy" he had into climate advocacy, but added:
"I was pretty slow to recognize how important the massive funding of anti-climate messaging was going on. I underestimated the power of greed in the fossil fuel industry, the shamelessness in putting out the lies."
"They are continuing to do similar things today to try to fool people and pull the wool over people's eyes just in the name of greed," Gore continued.
"What's at stake is so incredible."
Gore, who tried to raise awareness about the climate crisis in the U.S. House of Representatives as early as 1981 and brought the issue to national attention in 2006's documentary An Inconvenient Truth, has taken a harsher tone against oil, gas, and coal companies in recent months. In August 2023, he said that the "climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis," and in September, he implored the industry to "get out of the way." In December, he lamented that the industry had "captured the COP process," referring to the appointment of the United Arab Emirates national oil company CEO Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber to preside over the United Nations' COP28 climate conference in that country.
In the USA Today interview, Gore also named the fossil fuel industry when asked about his greatest frustration.
"Well, that we haven't made more progress," Gore answered, "and that some of the fossil fuel companies have been shameless in providing, continuing to provide lavish funding for disinformation and misinformation."
"What's at stake is so incredible," he added.
However, Gore told USA Today that he tried not to focus on his anger, but instead on continuing to raise awareness about the crisis and what can be done about it. And he remained hopeful that his grandchildren would live in a world in which people had come together and acted in time.
"We've got all the solutions we need right now to cut emissions in half before the end of this decade," he said. "We've got a clear line of sight to how we can cut the other 50% of emissions by mid century."
He also encouraged more people to get involved with the climate movement.
"I would say the greatest need is for more grassroots advocates because the most persuasive advocates are those in your own community," he said.
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'North Sea Fossil Free': Activists in 6 Countries Protest 'Unhinged' Oil and Gas Development
"Going full steam ahead with new North Sea oil and gas is a sure fire route to the worst climate scenarios," one campaigner said.
Mar 16, 2024
Climate activists in six North Sea countries came together on Saturday to carry out acts of civil disobedience in protest of their governments' continued fossil fuel development.
Demonstrators in the United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands blockaded roads, ports, and refineries; dropped banners; and held solidarity concerts as part of the North Sea Fossil Free campaign to demand that their governments align their plans for the shared body of water with the Paris agreement goal of limiting global heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
"For too long, the U.K., Norway, and other North Sea countries have avoided scrutiny for their oil drilling plans as the emissions are not included in their national inventories," a spokesperson for Extinction Rebellion U.K. told Common Dreams. "Going full steam ahead with new North Sea oil and gas is a sure fire route to the worst climate scenarios."
"The only serious response we can make is for citizens to unite, but we need to see many many more people doing this work."
The day of action, which was organized by Extinction Rebellion (XR), came days after a new report from Oil Change International revealed that none of five North Sea countries—Norway, the U.K., the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark—have plans consistent either with limiting warming to 1.5°C or with the agreement to transition away from fossil fuels reached at last year's United Nations COP28 climate conference. If the five countries were counted as one, they would be the seventh biggest producer of oil and gas in the world.
In particular, these governments continue to issue permits to explore for and develop oil and gas fields, despite the fact that the International Energy Agency has said that no new fossil fuel development is compatible with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. In one high-profile example, the U.K. approved the undeveloped Rosebank oil field in September 2023. Taken together, these permits could lead to more than 10 billion metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions.
The worst offenders were Norway and the U.K., which could be among the top 20 developers of oil and gas fields through mid-century if they do not change course.
"The five major North Sea countries are at a crossroads: One path leads toward global leadership in climate action and green industries, where they take bold action to phase out oil and gas production that creates sustainable jobs and communities. The other path leads to catastrophic climate change, economic crisis, and the loss of status as climate leaders globally, as they cling to outdated practices while the world moves forward," Silje Ask Lundberg, North Sea campaign manager at Oil Change International, said when the report was released.
Extinction Rebellion co-founder Clare Farrell said that the North Sea governments' policies were a betrayal of their citizens and the world following the hottest year on record.
"Temperatures have tracked 1.5°C above average recently, almost 2°C," Farrell said. "Our global commitments, such that they are, are being flushed away with no regard for what the public really want. Where's the consent for that here in our democracies? No government has a mandate to do that. So people deserve to know that our governments are willfully destroying everything. The people of these North Sea nations have not consented to destroying civilization, but that's what is going to happen. Their governments are unhinged and unchecked."
Saturday's protests, Farrell continued, were a way for the people in these countries to make their voices heard.
"The only serious response we can make is for citizens to unite, but we need to see many many more people doing this work," Farrell said. "Direct action like this should shake us awake; our governments will destroy democracy and society if we let them continue, that's the course we are on, and they are redoubling their efforts despite the facts and knowing how much suffering they are already causing all over the world as climate breaks down."
The demands of Saturday's protests were threefold: An end to new oil and gas infrastructure in the North Sea, for governments to tell the truth about the realities of the climate crisis, and for the countries to pursue a just transition to renewable energy. In addition, many activists made additional demands specific to their nations' policies.
The Netherlands
In the Netherlands, activists with Extinction Rebellion and Scientist Rebellion blocked all roads and railways leading to the largest oil refinery in Europe: Shell's Pernis refinery. They targeted Shell because the oil major has received new permits to drill in the Victory Gas Field and has also restarted its drilling in the Pierce Field. What's more, the company has refused to clean up its aging equipment in the North Sea, leaving old pipelines and drilling platforms to rust and pollute the sea with mercury, polonium, and radioactive lead. While there are 75 aging Shell oil and gas platforms in the Dutch North Sea that should be removed by 2035, current efforts are not on track to meet this deadline.
"Like the rest of the fossil industry, Shell is only interested in profits and shareholder returns," said Bram Kroezen of XR Netherlands, adding that Shell's appeal of a landmark court ruling ordering it to reduce emissions showed that the company "completely lacks a moral compass."
Germany
Activists with Ende Gelände blocked off access to a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in the port of Brunsbüttel, Germany, beginning at 9:00 am local time. The activists are calling for an end to LNG imports, as new science reveals the so-called "bridge" fuel may in fact be at least as damaging to the climate as coal due to previously unaccounted for methane leaks.
"LNG is a double climate killer," Rita Tesch, spokesperson for Ende Gelände, said in a statement. "Because it consists of methane. Methane is even more harmful to the climate than carbon dioxide. It escapes into the atmosphere during transportation by LNG ships and at terminals such as here in Brunsbüttel, and heats it up rapidly. The carbon dioxide from burning it is on top of that. It's clear: LNG imports are a climate crime!"
Norway
Activists with XR Norway targeted Rafnes Petroleum Refinery, with some blockading access on land while another group entered the security area by boat.
"I'm ashamed to be a Norwegian," XR Norway spokesperson Jonas Kittelsen said in a statement. "Norway profits massively from aggressively expanding our oil and gas sector, causing mass suffering and death globally. My government portrays us as better than the rest of the world, which we are not."
Denmark
Performance collective Becoming Species and Extinction Rebellion Denmark worked together to stage a creative protest targeting the oil company Total Energies, which is the leading oil and gas producer in the Danish North Sea and currently has plans to reopen "Tyra Feltet," Denmark's largest gas field. Four members of the band Octopussy Riot climbed a Total-owned container and staged a punk concert in Denmark's Esbjerg Harbor.
"We octopuses have formed the band Octopussy Riot and have arrived here to play our song, a demand for you two-legs to stop oil and gas extraction," performer Linh Le, said. "The sea is dying, our climate collapsing. We will not accept that the most rich and powerful destroy our home. We do not want to go extinct."
Sweden
Members of XR Sweden blocked the road to Gothenburg's Oil Harbor, where the group has been protesting since May of 2022. The activists called on Sweden to stop investing in the harbor and on city officials to develop a plan to dismantle the harbor and refineries.
"Twenty-two million tons of oil enter Gothenburg's port every year, which is owned by the city," one activist said. "There is no plan for decommissioning. This does not go together with the climate goals."
Scotland
Finally, protesters across Scotland stood in solidarity with the other actions with performances and banner drops. In Aberdeen, activists unfurled banners outside the offices of Equinor, which owns 80% of Rosebank, and Ithaca, which owns the remaining 20%. The banners read, "North Sea Fossil Free," "Stop Rosebank," and "Sea knows no borders." In Dundee, protesters targeted the Valaris 123 oil platform off the coast with banners. Shetland Stop Rosebank also brought signs to Lerwick Harbor, from where the first stage of Rosebank's development is launching. XR Forres organized a performance of the group the "oil slicks" along the Moray Firth, to demonstrate what an oil spill would do to its unique coastal landscape.
"All countries should align their drilling plans with the Paris agreement now," the XR U.K. spokesperson said. "We thank everyone who has taken action today in defense of a livable planet."
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