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Caroline Gluck, Oxfam Humanitarian Press Officer: +880 2 88136079, + 880 171 343 8881.
Major conflict could
return to southern Sudan unless there is urgent international action to
save the peace agreement that ended one of Africa's longest and
deadliest wars, ten aid agencies warned today.
In a new report "Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan"
- released ahead of the fifth anniversary of the signing of the peace
agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement - the agencies said a lethal cocktail of rising
violence, chronic poverty and political tensions has left the peace
deal on the brink of collapse.
"It is not yet too late to avert disaster, but the next 12 months
are a crossroads for Africa's largest country. Last year saw a surge in
violence in southern Sudan. This could escalate even further and become
one of the biggest emergencies in Africa in 2010," said co-author of
the report Maya Mailer, Policy Advisor for Oxfam.
In 2009 some 2,500 people were killed and 350,000 fled their homes,
a human toll greater than occurred last year in Darfur. The rest of the
world has largely overlooked this suffering according to the agencies.
Communities say that women and children have increasingly been targeted
in attacks on villages and the Government of Southern Sudan and
international peacekeepers have not been able to protect them.
The report says the next 12 months will see a number of potential
flashpoints that could inflame violence if not properly prepared for.
These include Sudan's first multi-party elections in 24 years and a
referendum in which southerners will vote on whether to remain united
with the north or to secede and become independent.
To safeguard civilians at this fragile juncture, the agencies urged
the UN Security Council to ensure that protecting civilians becomes a
core priority for the UN peacekeeping force, UNMIS. The agencies also
called on the international community to help mediate between the
northern and southern parties before the elections and referendum, to
reduce the likelihood of conflict, and to support the government in the
south to provide security.
The agencies also warned that growing frustration over the lack of
development in southern Sudan is harming the chances of peace. Less than half the population has access to clean water and maternal mortality rates are among the worst in the world.
There are fewer than 50 kilometers of tarmac road in the entire region,
an area the size of France, and during heavy rains many areas are cut
off for months at a time, making the delivery of humanitarian aid
almost impossible. Some 80 percent of adults cannot read or write and
one in seven children die before their fifth birthday.
"After five years of peace, southern Sudan remains one of the
poorest regions on earth. People hoped the peace would bring economic
benefits and development, but this has happened far too slowly and in
some areas not at all. We are very worried about children who seem to
be increasingly targeted in attacks on villages. International donors
and the government must urgently improve aid to these areas," said
Francisco Roque, Country Director of Save the Children in South Sudan.
A return to conflict would have devastating consequences that extend
far beyond southern Sudan, the agencies said. The civil war was
responsible for the deaths of 2 million people and forced around 4
million people to flee their homes, many into neighboring countries.
The war destabilized the entire region, fuelling conflicts and
suffering across central and eastern Africa.
The crisis in southern Sudan is escalating at a time when the
situation in Darfur, in western Sudan, remains one of the world's
biggest humanitarian emergencies. The agencies warned that there can
not be sustainable peace in Darfur if the peace between north and south
is allowed to fail.
"Sustained diplomatic engagement from the international community,
including Sudan's neighbors, is what is needed. This helped achieve
what many thought was impossible and secure the peace agreement in the
first place. Now engagement is needed again to ensure all that effort
does not go to waste. A return to war is by no means inevitable, but it
depends whether the world heeds the warning signs of the past year and
has the political will to save the peace," said Paul Valentin,
International Director of Christian Aid.
The
2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed on 9 January 2005. It
ended a war between northern and southern Sudan that cost two million
lives
The ten agencies backing the report are: Christian Aid, Cordaid, Handicap International, ICCO, International Rescue Committee, Oxfam International, Save the Children Sudan, Caritas France/ Secours Catholique, TearFund and World Vision.
Oxfam International is a global movement of people who are fighting inequality to end poverty and injustice. We are working across regions in about 70 countries, with thousands of partners, and allies, supporting communities to build better lives for themselves, grow resilience and protect lives and livelihoods also in times of crisis.
The Trump administration last week sued Minnesota after it passed a law banning prediction markets from operating in the state.
A Sunday report in The New York Times revealed how the Trump administration is using a key government agency to shut down any efforts to regulate online betting markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
According to the Times, the administration has stacked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) with industry insiders who have systematically "mowed down" staffers at the agency who have expressed interest in providing oversight on prediction markets.
Among other things, the report documented how multiple officials at CTFC have been put on leave simply for asking questions about the betting markets' ties to members of President Donald Trump's family or for having past experience enforcing regulations related to cryptocurrencies.
What's more, the Times found that even being an industry insider isn't enough to guarantee good standing in the agency. Brian Quintenz, who was tapped by Trump to lead CTFC last year, saw his nomination withdrawn after he drew the ire of Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss for refusing to support their cryptocurrency exchange's complaint against the agency.
Revelations about industry insiders rolling over regulators at CTFC come as the Trump administration is fighting any attempts by states to regulate prediction markets.
As explained in a Thursday report from CNBC, the Trump administration is "fighting a multi-front battle to stop the state actions and assert its regulatory authority," with CTFC arguing that it is "the only entity that can regulate" betting platforms.
16 different states are engaged in legal proceedings against the platforms, and Minnesota last week passed a law to ban them outright, which immediately drew a lawsuit from the administration.
The new Minnesota law, which is scheduled to take effect in August, bans prediction markets "from hosting, creating or advertising in the state," according to ABC News.
In an interview with ABC, Minnesota state Rep. Emma Greenman (D-63B) said she authored the legislation because she has grown increasingly concerned about young people in the state seeing their finances drained from placing online bets.
"We're seeing studies come out that say [the companies] are targeting 18- to 21-year-olds," said Greenman, "and we are seeing gambling starting younger and younger."
CFTC Chair Michael Selig last month warned states against trying to regulate prediction markets, which he said would "circumvent the clear directive of Congress."
"Our message to Wisconsin is the same as to New York, Arizona, and others," said Selig. "If you interfere with the operation of federal law in regulating financial markets, we will sue you."
"Nothing was accomplished by Operation Epic Fury except putting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in charge of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz," said one critic of the war.
President Donald Trump revealed on Saturday that he is mulling a deal that would end his illegal war with Iran, and some hawks within the Republican Party are expressing alarm.
According to a Sunday report in The New York Times, many details of the agreement to end the war remain murky, with the fate of Iran's enriched uranium up in the air. US and Iranian officials have also given contradictory messages about the proposed deal's contents, suggesting there is much work still to be done before any agreement is finalized.
Regardless, three hawkish GOP senators on Saturday raised major concerns about the contents of the deal, warning against accepting any agreement that will leave Iran in a stronger position than before Trump illegally launched a war against it without any authorization from Congress in late February.
"If it is perceived in the region that a deal with Iran allows the regime to survive and become more powerful over time, we will have poured gasoline on the conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq," wrote Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who lobbied Trump to attack Iran repeatedly before the start of the war. "A deal that is perceived to allow Iran to survive and possess the ability to control the [Strait of Hormuz] in the future will put Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shia militias in Iraq on steroids.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), another longtime Iran hawk, said he was "deeply concerned" about what he's been hearing about the deal and expressed particular worry about Iran getting relief from US sanctions while still maintaining the ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
"If the result of all that is to be an Iranian regime—still run by Islamists who chant 'death to America'—now receiving billions of dollars," Cruz wrote, "being able to enrich uranium and develop nuclear weapons, and having effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, then that outcome would be a disastrous mistake."
Sen. Roger Wicker (D-Miss.) was even blunter in his condemnation of the reported agreement.
"The rumored 60-day ceasefire—with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith—would be a disaster," Wicker wrote. "Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!"
Ben Rhodes, a former deputy national security adviser for President Barack Obama, challenged Wicker's claims that Trump's illegal war had achieved anything of value.
"Nothing was accomplished by Operation Epic Fury," Rhodes wrote, "except putting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in charge of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz."
Rhodes' criticism was echoed by Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who wrote that "everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury is already for naught."
Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, accused the Iran hawks of being delusional for thinking further bombing would force Iran to capitulate.
"DC's Iran hawks got two wars, nearly every conceivable sanction designation, a blockade, threw a wrench in global economy," Vaez wrote, "and will still claim that just a little more pressure and a touch more bombing will magically yield the concessions they still won't be satisfied with."
Data released by the University of Michigan and Gallup this week showed US consumer sentiment cratering even as stock markets hit record highs.
Multiple polls and surveys released in recent days have shown US consumer sentiment cratering—and all the while, the US stock market keeps hitting record highs.
The Kobeissi Letter, a financial newsletter, posted a graphic Saturday that matched consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers with the performance of the S&P 500 stock index over a 30-year span.
The graphic shows that, up until around 2020, consumer sentiment matched stock market performance closely, although there was a large divergence between the two leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, where stocks briefly outperformed consumer sentiment before crashing downward as the housing bubble burst.
But throughout the last six years, the graphic shows, the S&P 500 has produced an almost continuous upward surge even as consumer sentiment spirals downward.
Absolutely incredible:
Over the last 6 years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952.
We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history. https://t.co/XGMR6DfuNc pic.twitter.com/2w7cRvn7ok
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 23, 2026
"Absolutely incredible," commented Kobeissi Letter. "Over the last six years, the S&P 500 has risen +130% while US Consumer Sentiment has collapsed by -55%, to its lowest since data began in 1952. We are witnessing the formation of the biggest wealth divide in modern history."
Kobeissi Letter produced the graphic one day after the University of Michigan's latest survey found consumer sentiment hitting the lowest level on record.
Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, observed that "the cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month."
On the same day, Gallup published new data showing that Americans' economic confidence has fallen to its lowest level since October 2022, with just 16% of Americans rating the economy as excellent or good, and nearly half describing it as poor.
Axios reported on Saturday that even Republicans have been growing sour on the US economy, citing a recent poll from The Associated Press showing GOP approval of President Donald Trump on the economy to be at around 60%, down from 80% just three months ago.
"The growing GOP gloom could hardly come at a worse time for Trump and the party," Axios noted, "less than six months out from a midterm election that's likely to turn on the economy."
The gap between overall consumer sentiment and stock market performance also lines up with recent consumer spending trends. Data published by The Financial Times earlier this year showed that the top 10% of earners in the US now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, while the bottom 80% of earners now account for less than 40% of all consumer spending.
A February report from TD Economics economist Ksenia Bushmeneva noted that “the economic divide between America’s households at the top of the income spectrum and everyone else continued to widen last year,” as “upper-income households benefited from the still-robust wage growth, strong gains in equity markets, and better access to consumer credit.”