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The Israel Defense Forces have reportedly decided to improve the warnings given to civilians before attacks, but still need to ensure that the warnings are effective and do not allow attacks otherwise prohibited under international law, Human Rights Watch said today.
In a letter to the Israeli military's Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, Human Rights Watch welcomed the reported announcement that the military will issue new procedures to improve its early warnings to civilians during armed conflict, saying that improved procedures could save lives but reiterating concerns over past practice.
"More specific warnings that describe the target area and the timing of the attack would be a positive step towards ensuring they meet the requirement to be effective," said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch. "Unfortunately, during the January conflict in Gaza, many warnings failed that test."
An article on July 29, 2009, on the Israeli news website Ynet.com, said that Israeli military officials agreed, after reviewing Israel's conduct during military operations in Gaza during December and January, that the military should "give more accurate details in warnings issued to Palestinians before aerial strikes," including specific information such as "timetables for strikes to be carried out" and escape routes. Warning fliers would "be more detailed in order to make it clear to civilians that their lives are in danger."
During "Operation Cast Lead," the flyers dropped from Israeli fighter jets were addressed to "Inhabitants of the Area" from IDF Command, stating: "For the sake of your safety you are asked to evacuate the area immediately." Human Rights Watch's research found that the warnings were too vague to be effective and gave no sense of either the timing of a pending attack or where the attack would take place.
Human Rights Watch interviewed numerous Gaza residents who said they received IDF warning leaflets during the hostilities but did not evacuate because the fliers were spread over very wide areas, leaving them unsure of whether their area would be attacked and of where it would be safe to go. Gaza residents also told Human Rights Watch that they received warning phone calls to leave their homes because of "terrorist activity" in the area, but that these calls did not inform them of safe routes by which to evacuate. Gazans also said they received Israeli warnings, in some cases delivered by radio or television broadcasts, to "go to city centers," but that Israeli forces subsequently attacked those areas.
Human Rights Watch's research on the 2006 war in Lebanon found that the Israeli military, having issued warnings to civilians in South Lebanon to leave, often then treated the area as a civilian-free zone. Many civilians remained in Southern Lebanon throughout the fighting, yet the Israeli military often seemed not to take their presence into account in making targeting decisions. The frequent result was attacks that did not discriminate between combatants and civilians, resulting in high numbers of civilian casualties.
Under the laws of war, parties to a conflict must, whenever possible, provide effective advance warnings of attacks that may affect the civilian population. Whether a warning is effective depends on the circumstances, and it must take into account the amount of advance notice and the ability of civilians to flee the area to safety.
Civilians who do not evacuate following warnings are still fully protected by international law. Even after effective warnings have been given, attacking forces may not assume that civilians have evacuated, and must remain cognizant of the presence of civilians in an area. The attacker remains obligated to distinguish between military targets and civilians or civilian objects, and must still take all feasible precautions to avoid loss of civilian life and property. It is a violation of the laws of war to presume that anyone who remains in an area following warnings to flee is a legitimate military target. Warring parties may not cause forced displacement by threatening civilians with deliberate harm if they did not heed warnings.
"Warnings are important, but often civilians can't flee a combat zone because they are old or sick, don't have the means to flee, or have no safe place to go to," said Whitson. "Regardless of warnings, an army can't assume that civilians have heeded its warnings, and it is still obligated to ensure that only legitimate military targets are attacked."
Human Rights Watch is one of the world's leading independent organizations dedicated to defending and protecting human rights. By focusing international attention where human rights are violated, we give voice to the oppressed and hold oppressors accountable for their crimes. Our rigorous, objective investigations and strategic, targeted advocacy build intense pressure for action and raise the cost of human rights abuse. For 30 years, Human Rights Watch has worked tenaciously to lay the legal and moral groundwork for deep-rooted change and has fought to bring greater justice and security to people around the world.
“After you make us lose $900,000, we will invest no less than that to finish you.”
An Israeli journalist said he's received death threats from gamblers demanding he change an accurate report about an Iranian missile strike in order to help them win a bet on the prediction app Polymarket.
On Monday, Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel, wrote that he was confused when he suddenly received several requests to correct a report on March 10 that an Iranian missile had struck Israeli territory.
Fabian said he'd based his report on information from "rescue services" as well as "footage that emerged showing the massive explosion caused by the missile’s warhead." No injuries were reported from the impact, as the missile struck an empty area outside the city of Beit Shemesh, near Jerusalem.
"What I thought was a seemingly minor incident during the war has turned into days of harassment and death threats against me," Fabian said.
Hours after posting the report to the paper's live blog, Fabian said he received an email, from a user identifying as Aviv, claiming that what had hit the ground was not a missile, but an interceptor fragment.
Fabian contended military sources had confirmed it was a missile and that the impact was far too large to have been from only an interceptor.
He then received another email from a user named Daniel with the exact same gripe. Daniel described having an "urgent request" for the report to be changed and told Fabian that by changing it, "you would be helping me, many others, and, of course, the state of Israel."
Daniel sent Fabian several more emails over the next couple of days demanding a correction, and the tone continued to grow more urgent.
"I ask again, if you could handle this as soon as possible, it would help us a lot," Daniel said on Thursday. "It’s really important, if possible, still this morning."
Other users messaged him with the same complaint over email and the messaging app Discord. It was only when Fabian received more angry replies from two more users on X that he realized what was going on.
"Checking those X accounts, both appeared to be involved in gambling on the Polymarket betting site," he explained. "As far as I now understand, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether or not a missile had hit Israel on March 10 in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket."
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market where users buy and sell shares tied to real‑world events, enabling them to bet on the likelihood of future events, including those in wartime.
Fabian found that the people clamoring for his attention had put money on whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10. "This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No’,” the website explained. However, it stipulates that intercepted missiles would not receive a "yes" verdict.
As of March 16, gamblers had wagered more than $14 million on the event.
Over the next several days, requests continued to roll in from people demanding a correction to the story.
One user presented a fabricated email, purportedly from Fabian to Daniel, stating that the Israel Defense Forces had confirmed the missiles were intercepted and that he planned to correct the story.
Fabian was later approached by a colleague at another publication, who said his friend had asked him to reach out for the story to be changed. After being confronted, the friend admitted that he had money on the wager too, and offered some of his winnings to Fabian's colleague if he could persuade the journalist to change the story.
By the weekend, the messages had become violent. Fabian said a user identified as Haim accosted him with several threatening messages in Hebrew over WhatsApp:
"You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence,” Haim wrote. "Despite the fact that you received countless inquiries—you insist on leaving it that way.”
“If you do not correct this by 01:00 Israel time today, March 15, you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer,” he threatened, in a very lengthy message.
Haim also attempted to call me via WhatsApp multiple times during the night, before sending me more messages.
“You have no idea how much you’ve put yourself at risk. Today is the most significant day of your career. You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you."
Haim also threatened Fabian by referring "with specific details" to his home address, his parents, and family.
After receiving several more threats and being contacted by someone purporting to be a "lawyer," Fabian went to the police, who he said are now investigating the situation.
The threats continued into Monday, after Fabian ran into a bomb shelter amid another Iranian missile attack.
"The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed," Fabian said. "But I do worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings."
He said that journalists are in a unique position to "exploit their knowledge for insider trading on the platform."
Polymarket and other similar "prediction market" apps like Kalshi have come under similar scrutiny in the United States for allowing users to place suspiciously timed bets on military actions taken by the Trump administration.
Earlier this month, the watchdog group Public Citizen sent a letter to the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, outlining a series of "highly suspicious" bets made just before President Donald Trump launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Among the big winners were what the Wall Street Journal described as "six suspected insiders,” whose immaculately timed wagers netted them a $1.2 million profit.
In January, another trader made more than $436,000 after betting that Veneuzelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power just hours before Trump launched an operation to remove him.
In the face of state regulations, the Trump administration has sought to ease restrictions on betting apps. The Trump family's media company offers access to prediction markets on its Truth Social platform via Crypto.com. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
US Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has emerged as a leading critic of prediction markets, described Fabian's account as a "bone-chilling story."
The senator said: "We need to end prediction markets for government action. NOW."
"While US servicemembers die in another forever war in the Middle East, Donald Trump’s 'peace envoy' is raising money for his private equity firm," wrote US Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Jared Kushner, US President Donald Trump's son-in-law, is reportedly trying to entice governments in the Middle East to invest billions in his private equity firm while he simultaneously works as "a special envoy for peace"—a role he appears to have used to help convince Trump to wage war on Iran.
The New York Times reported late last week that Kushner "has spoken with potential investors in recent weeks about raising $5 billion or more for Affinity Partners, his investment firm."
Citing five unnamed people with knowledge of the talks, the Times reported that "Affinity’s representatives have already met with Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund," Affinity's largest investor. Saudi Arabia's leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly played a significant role in the behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign urging Trump to attack Iran—Saudi Arabia's top regional rival.
Bin Salman controls the Saudi Public Investment Fund, which pumped $2 billion into Kushner's firm in 2022.
"Mr. Kushner’s fundraising is expected to stretch on for the better part of this year," the Times added. "The efforts show the blurring of the lines between public service and private profit-seeking during Mr. Trump’s second term. Only a few weeks ago, in his role as Mr. Trump’s 'peace envoy,' Mr. Kushner met in Geneva with Iran’s foreign minister. The US and Israeli bombing campaign in Iran began shortly after those meetings concluded without a deal on Iran’s nuclear program."
Last week, Trump said he decided to attack Iran in coordination with Israel—whose prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is a personal friend of Kushner's—because the president "thought they were going to attack us," a view he claimed to have reached after listening to "what Steve [Witkoff] and Jared and Pete [Hegseth] and others were telling me."
US Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wrote in response to the Times reporting that "while US servicemembers die in another forever war in the Middle East, Donald Trump’s 'peace envoy' is raising money for his private equity firm."
Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, wrote in a social media post on Sunday that a "fair and equitable deal" between the US and Iran "was within reach" before Trump and Netanyahu started bombing.
"Those providing poor advice to POTUS are responsible for bloodshed," Araghchi wrote, attaching a screenshot of the Times story on Kushner's fundraising efforts. "This war is imposed on both Americans and Iranians."
I've been told that family of a U.S. soldier killed in the war of choice on Iran is relying on public donations.
As fair and equitable deal was within reach, those providing poor advice to POTUS are responsible for bloodshed.
This war is imposed on both Americans and Iranians. pic.twitter.com/fR15XKjfYk
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 15, 2026
Judd Legum, founder and author of the Popular Information newsletter, noted last week that Kushner's participation in the Geneva diplomatic talks that preceded the US-Israeli assault on Iran "violated his pledge not to be involved in foreign policy in a second Trump administration."
On Monday, Legum observed that Kushner also said in December 2024 that his private equity firm would not "have to raise capital for the next four years," allowing him to "avoid any conflicts" of interest.
Trump formally named Kushner a "special envoy for peace" last month, a move that means the president's son-in-law is now required by law to file a financial disclosure report. Kushner has just days left before the 30-day deadline to file the disclosure.
Donald Sherman, president and CEO of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, wrote in a letter to the White House last week that "Mr. Kushner’s history of financial gains resulting from his time as a White House advisor during President Trump’s first term raises serious concerns about potential conflicts of interest that must be addressed before Mr. Kushner participates in any additional matters that may relate to his own financial interests or those of his investors."
"The risk of Mr. Kushner’s potential conflicts is particularly concerning because his private investment firm has very publicly done significant business with foreign partners who also have interests in the conflicts on which he has been assigned to work," Sherman noted.
"This harrowing attack on a school, with classrooms full of children, is a sickening illustration of the catastrophic and entirely predictable price civilians are paying during this armed conflict."
Amnesty International on Monday published an investigation that found the United States violated international humanitarian law by failing to take measures to avoid harming civilians before bombing a girls' school in southern Iran last month and killing around 175 people, most of them children.
Evidence gathered by Amnesty "indicates that the school building was directly struck, alongside 12 other structures in an adjacent Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) compound, with guided weapons," the group said. "This points to a failure by US forces to take feasible precautions to avoid civilian harm in carrying out the attack, which is a serious breach of international humanitarian law."
"The fact that the school building was directly targeted and was previously part of the IRGC compound raises concerns that US forces may have relied on outdated intelligence and failed in their obligation to do everything feasible to verify that the intended target was a military objective," Amnesty added.
NEW: Our in-depth investigation finds that US has violated international humanitarian law by failing to take all feasible precautions to avoid civilian harm. US is responsible for deadly attack on school in #Minab packed full of children.
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— Amnesty International (@amnesty.org) March 16, 2026 at 8:26 AM
Satellite imagery analyses confirmed eyewitness accounts that the February 28 attack on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in Minab was a "triple-tap" airstrike, in which an initial bombing was followed up with two additional strikes meant to kill survivors and rescue workers.
Fragments of a Tomahawk cruise missile found at the school and marked with the names of US weapons companies, a Pentagon contract number, and "Made in USA" added to the body of evidence pointing to the United States as the perpetrator of what numerous experts have called a likely war crime.
President Donald Trump, who initially blamed Iran for the attack, later said he is "willing to live with" whatever the military's investigation concludes.
"US authorities must ensure that the investigation they have announced is impartial, independent, and transparent," Amnesty said. "Investigations into the strike must consider the intelligence gathering and assessments, targeting decisions, and precautions taken, as well as how artificial intelligence may have been employed in each of these steps, to evaluate how targeting decisions were made. The results of the investigation should be made public."
Both the US and Israel have increasingly relied upon artificial intelligence systems to select bombing targets, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) having first used Gaza as what on expert called "a live-fire, live-ordnance lab experiment on people." Proponents of these systems note that they can select targets and approve strikes exponentially faster than humans, enabling more strikes, but critics warn such targeting methods are inherently more dangerous, pointing to higher error rates which translate to more civilian casualties and less accountability.
In the case of the Minab strike, Amnesty said, "Where sufficient evidence exists, competent authorities should prosecute any person suspected of criminal responsibility. Victims and their families have the right to truth and justice and should receive full reparation, including restitution, rehabilitation, and compensation for civilian harm."
Erika Guevara-Rosas—Amnesty International’s senior director of research, advocacy, policy and campaigns—said in a statement Monday that “this harrowing attack on a school, with classrooms full of children, is a sickening illustration of the catastrophic and entirely predictable price civilians are paying during this armed conflict."
"Schools must be places of safety and learning for children," she said. "Instead, this school in Minab became a site of mass killing. The US authorities could, and should, have known it was a school building. Targeting a protected civilian object, such as a school, is strictly prohibited under international humanitarian law."
"If the attackers failed to identify the building as a school and nevertheless proceeded with the attack, this would indicate gross negligence in the planning of the attack and would point to a shameful intelligence failure on the part of the US military and a serious violation of international humanitarian law," Guevara-Rosas continued.
"On the other hand," she said, "if the US was aware that the school was adjacent to the IRGC compound and proceeded to attack without taking all feasible precautions, such as striking at night when the school would have been empty, or giving effective advance warning to civilians likely to be affected, this would amount to recklessly launching an indiscriminate attack which killed and injured civilians and must be investigated as a war crime."
“For their part, Iranian authorities must immediately remove, to the extent feasible, civilians from the vicinity of military objectives and allow independent monitors into the country," Guevara-Rosas added. "They must also restore internet access to ensure that the 92 million people in Iran have access to life-saving information and be able to contact their loved ones.”
Amnesty joins other organizations—including the United Nations Human Rights Office, Human Rights Watch, Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor—in urging accountability for the officials responsible for planning and executing the school strike.