A peer-reviewed study published Wednesday in The Lancet Global Health estimates that more than 75,000 people in Gaza were killed during the first 16 months of Israel's genocidal assault—a figure that far exceeds the death toll reported at the time by the strip's health authorities.
The study's authors found that there were 75,200 "violent deaths" in Gaza between October 7, 2023 and January 5, 2025, with women, children, and elderly Palestinians making up around 56% of the toll. The researchers estimated an additional 16,300 nonviolent deaths—from disease, accidents, or other causes not directly related to Israel's military onslaught—during that period.
The Lancet study's estimated Gaza death toll through early January 2025 is at least 25,000 deaths higher than the figure reported at the time by Gaza's Ministry of Health (MoH).
Gaza health officials put the current death toll from Israel's assault at more than 72,000—a figure that Israeli authorities only recently acknowledged is accurate after more than two years of denial.
"The combined evidence suggests that, as of January 5, 2025, 3-4% of the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of nonviolent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict," the Lancet study states. "Our findings contradict claims that the MoH has inflated the death toll from the war in the Gaza Strip. Instead, the MoH appears to provide conservative, reliable figures while working under extraordinary constraints."
The study's lead author is Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London and a board member of Action on Armed Violence. The London-based watchdog organization noted in its coverage of the study that "Spagat is internationally recognized for his work on war mortality estimation, including studies of Kosovo, Iraq, and other conflict zones."
The new study, described as "the first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip," is the latest peer-reviewed research showing that the officially reported death tolls from the Israeli military's invasion and destruction of the territory are likely significant undercounts.
A study published in The Lancet in January 2025 indicated that the death toll reported by Gaza health officials over roughly the first year and a half of Israel's assault was likely a 41% undercount.
"It will be a long time before we get to a full accounting of all the people killed in Gaza, if we ever get there," Spagat told The Guardian on Thursday.
