Wider Middle East War, Gaza Policy Imperil Biden Reelection Hopes: Polls

A poll released Thursday shows that U.S. President Joe Biden is "misreading his own base," said one foreign policy expert, with a full 50% of Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 saying they believe the Israeli military operation that the U.S. is continuing to defend and fund amounts to a "genocide."

The Economist and YouGov found that 50% of 2020 Biden supporters answered yes to the question, "Do you think that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinian civilians?"

Only 20% of the respondents said no and 30% said they were unsure.

Overall, 35% of all people who answered the survey said they believe Israel is committing genocide. Forty-nine percent of Democrats agreed along with 60% of people who identified themselves as having liberal political views.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted that the survey was released a day before the International Court of Justice is set to announce it verdict in a case brought by South Africa, which has accused Israel of genocidal violence and outlined numerous public statements of genocidal intent by top-level Israeli officials in its presentation to the court.

"What will that do to Biden's base if the ICJ rules on Friday that Israel is plausibly committing genocide?" asked Parsi.

At least 25,900 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel began its air and ground strikes, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claiming they are only aiming to stop Hamas from operating in the enclave even as refugee camps, shelters, and hospitals have been among the targets.

Israeli officials have called for the IDF to erase "the Gaza Strip from the face of the Earth" and have said the military should "release all restraints" that would otherwise keep them from targeting civilians.

A separate poll by YouGov found that 52% of Americans—including 23% of 2020 Biden voters—said they would hold the president responsible if gas prices go up as a result of a widened conflict in the Middle East.

"This could easily make the difference in a close election. If a small percentage—even about 1 in 20—of this large group of voters were to stay home as a result of their dissatisfaction with the rise in gasoline prices, that could be enough to tip the election," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR).

The Biden administration has said it does not want a broader conflict to grow from Israel's escalation in Gaza, but earlier this week the U.S. and U.K. launched attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the Houthis' strikes on shipping vessels in the Red Sea that they say are leaving or going to Israeli ports.

The new polling suggests that "the 2024 election could very easily be tipped by just a very small fraction of Biden voters," CEPR senior adviser Justin Talbot Zorn said.