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Despite Low Approval Rating and Impeachment Inquiry, Poll Shows Majority of Voters Believe Trump Could Win in 2020

The belief that Trump could win in 2020 is making voters across the political spectrum "very motivated" to go to the polls, according to a new survey.

Activists hold a banner demanding the impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump on November 5, 2019 in front of the White House in Washington, D.C. A new poll out Wednesday showed that while Trump has low approval ratings, a majority of voters believe he could win the 2020 election. (Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

Despite President Donald Trump's low approval ratings and successful election results Tuesday for Democratic lawmakers across the country, a new poll finds most Americans are far from convinced that the president will be defeated in 2020.

A Politico/Morning Consult survey taken between Nov. 1 and 3 found that out of nearly 2,000 respondents, 56 percent said they think it's at least somewhat likely that Trump will win reelection.

"The way Trump will win in 2020 is if a whole lot of people convince themselves it is impossible he could win and allow that to justify their own complacency."
—Susan Hennessey, Lawfare

The feeling was shared by Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike and appeared linked to a strong motivation for both groups to vote next year.

Nearly 70 percent of respondents described themselves as "very motivated" to vote, and about three-quarters of those registered as Republicans or Democrats said they were motivated. Most Republicans said they felt "hopeful" and "confident" looking ahead to the election, while Democrats said they felt "worried" but also hopeful.

"President Trump's reelection prospects seem to be energizing voter enthusiasm across the political spectrum," Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult's vice president, said in a statement.

The survey comes days after the latest polling regarding Trump's approval rating showed that only 39 percent of voters currently support the president while 58 percent disapprove of him.

In hypothetical match-ups against the top Democratic candidates running in the 2020 primary, according to the Washington Post-ABC poll released Tuesday, the president trailed by significant margins; former Vice President Joe Biden led by 17 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) led by 15 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) led by 14 percent.

Only three in 10 respondents in Tuesday's poll described the president as "honest and trustworthy."

Another survey released Monday may shed light on why many Americans fear another Trump victory in 2020. The New York Times poll found that even if the president loses the popular vote by a wide margin—as he did in 2016, capturing nearly three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton—he could again eke out a victory thanks to the Electoral College.

Social media observers expressed fear of another Electoral College victory by Trump rather than one that will reflect the will of voters.

Lawfare editor Susan Hennessey tweeted Tuesday that Democrats and progressives should use the fear of Trump's potential reelection to propel voters to the polls in 2020.

"The way Trump will win in 2020 is if a whole lot of people convince themselves it is impossible he could win and allow that to justify their own complacency," Hennessey wrote.

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