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"There are also many examples of costs that are hard to quantify in just dollar terms but are surely significant, including harms to human health (both physical and mental), ecosystems and assets of cultural value," Cleetus writes. (Photo: Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, was released today. The much-anticipated report, prepared by a consortium of 13 US federal government agencies, makes clear that climate change is already here--as evident from the worsening flooding, wildfire seasons, droughts, and heatwaves the nation has been experiencing. What's more, the report highlights that as climate change worsens, risks to our economy, infrastructure, health and well-being, and ecosystems will grow significantly. Urgent action is needed to lower heat-trapping emissions and invest in making our economy and our communities more prepared to withstand climate impacts.
The NCA reiterates that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases are the dominant cause of observed global warming over the last century; there is no other credible explanation for it. Observations show that annual average temperatures across the contiguous US have risen by 1.8degF since the beginning of the 20th century.
The NCA explains that as temperatures rise, the latest science and data point to a range of worsening impacts. For example, as oceans have warmed and expanded and as land-based ice has shrunk due to warming temperatures, the annual medial sea level along US coasts (with land motion removed) has increased about 9 inches since the early 20th century. Warmer, drier conditions have contributed to an increase in wildfire activity in the western US and Alaska over the past several decades.
The new report also starkly highlights the billions of dollars of economic losses that are already occurring from climate-related events. Just a few startling examples:
There are also many examples of costs that are hard to quantify in just dollar terms but are surely significant, including harms to human health (both physical and mental), ecosystems and assets of cultural value.
Across the nation, many economic sectors--including agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism--are at risk from a warming climate. Much of our nation's infrastructure--roads, bridges, ports, airports, water and waste water systems, electricity infrastructure, dams--which underpins our economy and way of life is also greatly exposed. Even without climate change, aging infrastructure and decades of under-investment already pose significant challenges; climate change will magnify them.
As the report says, the assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid. We'll need to prepare for a climate-altered future.
As climate change worsens, some major challenges to our society and economy will likely include:
The NCA also includes information about the costs of climate change under different emissions scenarios, making clear that limiting emissions can make a huge difference in climate-related damages and costs. Many of these estimates come from a ground-breaking underlying study by the EPA released last year.
For example, health-related impacts and costs could be 50 percent lower under a low emissions scenario (RCP4.5) v. a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Damages to roads and electricity infrastructure can be reduced by about 60 percent. Under RCP8.5, almost 1.9 billion labor hours across the national workforce are projected to be lost annually by 2090 due to the effects of extreme temperature on suitable working conditions, totaling over $160 billion in lost wages per year; Under RCP4.5, about 50 percent of this could be avoided. (These estimates generally do not include assumptions about adaptation).
Following on the heels of the IPCC 1.5degC report, the NCA is yet another clarion call to action. Although the report itself is not policy-prescriptive, its findings are directly relevant to policymakers and planners from the local and state to the national level. Given the significant economic implications, the private sector also has a strong stake in addressing climate change and driving innovative solutions.
It's pretty clear that we should do everything we can to limit climate change and avoid some of the more extreme impacts and costs.
That means limiting heat-trapping emissions across the economy. The energy sector must get more efficient and switch to low-carbon sources of energy wherever possible. We'll need to electrify as many energy end-uses as possible, while switching to low-carbon electricity. We'll need to invest in the infrastructure to make all this possible, including ramping up low-carbon power sources, transmission and energy storage. And we'll need to invest in research, development and deployment of new low-carbon technologies and technologies to capture and permanently sequester carbon.
The good news, as the NCA points out, is that parts of the energy sector are already undergoing a low-carbon transition--we just need to accelerate and broaden it. For example, US power sector emissions have fallen 28 percent from 2005 levels, as the nation has transitioned away from coal to natural gas and renewable energy. The falling costs of renewable energy are already making wind, solar and other forms of low-carbon electricity an attractive choice in many states, including Texas, Iowa, Kansas and California. The Pueblo of Jemez has installed the first utility-scale solar facility on tribal grounds, and tribes and Alaska native communities around the country are pursuing energy efficiency and clean energy-related projects.
We'll also have to invest in keeping our nations forests and lands healthy so that they can continue to draw carbon dioxide out of the air and store it. We will likely also need to invest in other so-called 'negative emissions' technologies.
And alongside these ambitious efforts to cut carbon emissions, we'll have to invest in preparing for the climate impacts we have already locked in and that are likely to get worse. Incorporating the knowledge, insights and choices of frontline communities will be critical to the success of these efforts.
Releasing the NCA the day after Thanksgiving is a transparently underhanded and shameful ploy by the administration to try to bury the science. But there's no way to ignore the damaging and costly climate impacts our nation is already experiencing. Even as the need for urgent action is evident, we have an administration that is trying at every turn to stop or reverse climate and clean energy policies, and sideline the science.
The NCA points out that our global emissions choices today can determine whether we can limit temperature increase to 3.6degF (2degC) or less in line with the Paris Agreement goals--or whether we end up with runaway temperature increases of 9degF (5degC) or more.
The biggest challenge to ambitious climate action remains political will. As a new Congress is convened in Washington, and new legislatures and governors take office around the country, we need to put pressure on our policymakers to act in our best interests in light of the latest science.
There's no time to dither as climate impacts and costs mount around the nation. We can't continue to wallow in ideological fights about whether or not people "believe" in climate change. Let's implement commonsense, ambitious measures that deliver climate benefits, while protecting our economy and well-being.
A comprehensive infrastructure bill that delivers low-carbon energy, climate resilience, jobs and public health benefits would be a great start.
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The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, was released today. The much-anticipated report, prepared by a consortium of 13 US federal government agencies, makes clear that climate change is already here--as evident from the worsening flooding, wildfire seasons, droughts, and heatwaves the nation has been experiencing. What's more, the report highlights that as climate change worsens, risks to our economy, infrastructure, health and well-being, and ecosystems will grow significantly. Urgent action is needed to lower heat-trapping emissions and invest in making our economy and our communities more prepared to withstand climate impacts.
The NCA reiterates that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases are the dominant cause of observed global warming over the last century; there is no other credible explanation for it. Observations show that annual average temperatures across the contiguous US have risen by 1.8degF since the beginning of the 20th century.
The NCA explains that as temperatures rise, the latest science and data point to a range of worsening impacts. For example, as oceans have warmed and expanded and as land-based ice has shrunk due to warming temperatures, the annual medial sea level along US coasts (with land motion removed) has increased about 9 inches since the early 20th century. Warmer, drier conditions have contributed to an increase in wildfire activity in the western US and Alaska over the past several decades.
The new report also starkly highlights the billions of dollars of economic losses that are already occurring from climate-related events. Just a few startling examples:
There are also many examples of costs that are hard to quantify in just dollar terms but are surely significant, including harms to human health (both physical and mental), ecosystems and assets of cultural value.
Across the nation, many economic sectors--including agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism--are at risk from a warming climate. Much of our nation's infrastructure--roads, bridges, ports, airports, water and waste water systems, electricity infrastructure, dams--which underpins our economy and way of life is also greatly exposed. Even without climate change, aging infrastructure and decades of under-investment already pose significant challenges; climate change will magnify them.
As the report says, the assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid. We'll need to prepare for a climate-altered future.
As climate change worsens, some major challenges to our society and economy will likely include:
The NCA also includes information about the costs of climate change under different emissions scenarios, making clear that limiting emissions can make a huge difference in climate-related damages and costs. Many of these estimates come from a ground-breaking underlying study by the EPA released last year.
For example, health-related impacts and costs could be 50 percent lower under a low emissions scenario (RCP4.5) v. a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Damages to roads and electricity infrastructure can be reduced by about 60 percent. Under RCP8.5, almost 1.9 billion labor hours across the national workforce are projected to be lost annually by 2090 due to the effects of extreme temperature on suitable working conditions, totaling over $160 billion in lost wages per year; Under RCP4.5, about 50 percent of this could be avoided. (These estimates generally do not include assumptions about adaptation).
Following on the heels of the IPCC 1.5degC report, the NCA is yet another clarion call to action. Although the report itself is not policy-prescriptive, its findings are directly relevant to policymakers and planners from the local and state to the national level. Given the significant economic implications, the private sector also has a strong stake in addressing climate change and driving innovative solutions.
It's pretty clear that we should do everything we can to limit climate change and avoid some of the more extreme impacts and costs.
That means limiting heat-trapping emissions across the economy. The energy sector must get more efficient and switch to low-carbon sources of energy wherever possible. We'll need to electrify as many energy end-uses as possible, while switching to low-carbon electricity. We'll need to invest in the infrastructure to make all this possible, including ramping up low-carbon power sources, transmission and energy storage. And we'll need to invest in research, development and deployment of new low-carbon technologies and technologies to capture and permanently sequester carbon.
The good news, as the NCA points out, is that parts of the energy sector are already undergoing a low-carbon transition--we just need to accelerate and broaden it. For example, US power sector emissions have fallen 28 percent from 2005 levels, as the nation has transitioned away from coal to natural gas and renewable energy. The falling costs of renewable energy are already making wind, solar and other forms of low-carbon electricity an attractive choice in many states, including Texas, Iowa, Kansas and California. The Pueblo of Jemez has installed the first utility-scale solar facility on tribal grounds, and tribes and Alaska native communities around the country are pursuing energy efficiency and clean energy-related projects.
We'll also have to invest in keeping our nations forests and lands healthy so that they can continue to draw carbon dioxide out of the air and store it. We will likely also need to invest in other so-called 'negative emissions' technologies.
And alongside these ambitious efforts to cut carbon emissions, we'll have to invest in preparing for the climate impacts we have already locked in and that are likely to get worse. Incorporating the knowledge, insights and choices of frontline communities will be critical to the success of these efforts.
Releasing the NCA the day after Thanksgiving is a transparently underhanded and shameful ploy by the administration to try to bury the science. But there's no way to ignore the damaging and costly climate impacts our nation is already experiencing. Even as the need for urgent action is evident, we have an administration that is trying at every turn to stop or reverse climate and clean energy policies, and sideline the science.
The NCA points out that our global emissions choices today can determine whether we can limit temperature increase to 3.6degF (2degC) or less in line with the Paris Agreement goals--or whether we end up with runaway temperature increases of 9degF (5degC) or more.
The biggest challenge to ambitious climate action remains political will. As a new Congress is convened in Washington, and new legislatures and governors take office around the country, we need to put pressure on our policymakers to act in our best interests in light of the latest science.
There's no time to dither as climate impacts and costs mount around the nation. We can't continue to wallow in ideological fights about whether or not people "believe" in climate change. Let's implement commonsense, ambitious measures that deliver climate benefits, while protecting our economy and well-being.
A comprehensive infrastructure bill that delivers low-carbon energy, climate resilience, jobs and public health benefits would be a great start.
The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II, was released today. The much-anticipated report, prepared by a consortium of 13 US federal government agencies, makes clear that climate change is already here--as evident from the worsening flooding, wildfire seasons, droughts, and heatwaves the nation has been experiencing. What's more, the report highlights that as climate change worsens, risks to our economy, infrastructure, health and well-being, and ecosystems will grow significantly. Urgent action is needed to lower heat-trapping emissions and invest in making our economy and our communities more prepared to withstand climate impacts.
The NCA reiterates that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases are the dominant cause of observed global warming over the last century; there is no other credible explanation for it. Observations show that annual average temperatures across the contiguous US have risen by 1.8degF since the beginning of the 20th century.
The NCA explains that as temperatures rise, the latest science and data point to a range of worsening impacts. For example, as oceans have warmed and expanded and as land-based ice has shrunk due to warming temperatures, the annual medial sea level along US coasts (with land motion removed) has increased about 9 inches since the early 20th century. Warmer, drier conditions have contributed to an increase in wildfire activity in the western US and Alaska over the past several decades.
The new report also starkly highlights the billions of dollars of economic losses that are already occurring from climate-related events. Just a few startling examples:
There are also many examples of costs that are hard to quantify in just dollar terms but are surely significant, including harms to human health (both physical and mental), ecosystems and assets of cultural value.
Across the nation, many economic sectors--including agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism--are at risk from a warming climate. Much of our nation's infrastructure--roads, bridges, ports, airports, water and waste water systems, electricity infrastructure, dams--which underpins our economy and way of life is also greatly exposed. Even without climate change, aging infrastructure and decades of under-investment already pose significant challenges; climate change will magnify them.
As the report says, the assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid. We'll need to prepare for a climate-altered future.
As climate change worsens, some major challenges to our society and economy will likely include:
The NCA also includes information about the costs of climate change under different emissions scenarios, making clear that limiting emissions can make a huge difference in climate-related damages and costs. Many of these estimates come from a ground-breaking underlying study by the EPA released last year.
For example, health-related impacts and costs could be 50 percent lower under a low emissions scenario (RCP4.5) v. a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Damages to roads and electricity infrastructure can be reduced by about 60 percent. Under RCP8.5, almost 1.9 billion labor hours across the national workforce are projected to be lost annually by 2090 due to the effects of extreme temperature on suitable working conditions, totaling over $160 billion in lost wages per year; Under RCP4.5, about 50 percent of this could be avoided. (These estimates generally do not include assumptions about adaptation).
Following on the heels of the IPCC 1.5degC report, the NCA is yet another clarion call to action. Although the report itself is not policy-prescriptive, its findings are directly relevant to policymakers and planners from the local and state to the national level. Given the significant economic implications, the private sector also has a strong stake in addressing climate change and driving innovative solutions.
It's pretty clear that we should do everything we can to limit climate change and avoid some of the more extreme impacts and costs.
That means limiting heat-trapping emissions across the economy. The energy sector must get more efficient and switch to low-carbon sources of energy wherever possible. We'll need to electrify as many energy end-uses as possible, while switching to low-carbon electricity. We'll need to invest in the infrastructure to make all this possible, including ramping up low-carbon power sources, transmission and energy storage. And we'll need to invest in research, development and deployment of new low-carbon technologies and technologies to capture and permanently sequester carbon.
The good news, as the NCA points out, is that parts of the energy sector are already undergoing a low-carbon transition--we just need to accelerate and broaden it. For example, US power sector emissions have fallen 28 percent from 2005 levels, as the nation has transitioned away from coal to natural gas and renewable energy. The falling costs of renewable energy are already making wind, solar and other forms of low-carbon electricity an attractive choice in many states, including Texas, Iowa, Kansas and California. The Pueblo of Jemez has installed the first utility-scale solar facility on tribal grounds, and tribes and Alaska native communities around the country are pursuing energy efficiency and clean energy-related projects.
We'll also have to invest in keeping our nations forests and lands healthy so that they can continue to draw carbon dioxide out of the air and store it. We will likely also need to invest in other so-called 'negative emissions' technologies.
And alongside these ambitious efforts to cut carbon emissions, we'll have to invest in preparing for the climate impacts we have already locked in and that are likely to get worse. Incorporating the knowledge, insights and choices of frontline communities will be critical to the success of these efforts.
Releasing the NCA the day after Thanksgiving is a transparently underhanded and shameful ploy by the administration to try to bury the science. But there's no way to ignore the damaging and costly climate impacts our nation is already experiencing. Even as the need for urgent action is evident, we have an administration that is trying at every turn to stop or reverse climate and clean energy policies, and sideline the science.
The NCA points out that our global emissions choices today can determine whether we can limit temperature increase to 3.6degF (2degC) or less in line with the Paris Agreement goals--or whether we end up with runaway temperature increases of 9degF (5degC) or more.
The biggest challenge to ambitious climate action remains political will. As a new Congress is convened in Washington, and new legislatures and governors take office around the country, we need to put pressure on our policymakers to act in our best interests in light of the latest science.
There's no time to dither as climate impacts and costs mount around the nation. We can't continue to wallow in ideological fights about whether or not people "believe" in climate change. Let's implement commonsense, ambitious measures that deliver climate benefits, while protecting our economy and well-being.
A comprehensive infrastructure bill that delivers low-carbon energy, climate resilience, jobs and public health benefits would be a great start.