Primary Primer: How to Read the Tea Leaves

After Tuesday, one-fifth of the 2010 primaries will be done.

We're deep into the election cycle.

So where are the fireworks?

They promised us fireworks.

Does the show begin tonight?

Maybe. Then again, maybe not.

So far, the 2010 election cycle has added up to lots of hype and very little in the way of change.

Despite all the media focus on the Tea Party movement, Republican
candidates who aligned with it fared poorly in the Illinois, Texas,
Ohio, Indiana and North Carolina. For the most part, establishment
contenders have won key U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial and
statewide constitutional races.

In Texas, where Tea Party activists made a big play for state legislative seats, they generally failed.

In fact, there has been more churn on the Democratic side. The only member of the House to be defeated in a primary thus far is West Virginia Congressman Alan Mollohan, a relatively mainstream Democrat with ethics troubles
who got beat in his May 11 primary by a relatively mainstream (if
slightly more socially-conservative) Democrat with a reform message,
Mike Oliverio. (Utah Republican Senator Bob Bennett also appears to be
out of a job and he really was targeted by the Tea Party crowd; but he
got beat at a closed state convention rather than in a primary.)

Tuesday's round of primaries in Arkansas, Kentucky, Oregon and
Pennsylvania should give a clearer indication of the extent to which
voters are in an anti-incumbent mood. Two incumbent Democrats senators, Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, face vigorous challenges, while a third, Oregon's Ron Wyden, could be embarrassed if a significant protest vote is cast against him.

Additionally, Kentucky has intense primary contests on the Democratic
and Republican sides for an open Senate seat. And there are various and
sundry U.S. House, gubernatorial and statewide and legislative contests
that will provide signals.

What are the prospective scenarios?

Beginning with the most interesting one, they go like this:

GOT A REVOLUTION! GOT A REVOLUTION! Two senators lose: Pennsylvania's
Arlen Specter and Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln lose. Almost as
significantly, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden loses a substantial portion of
the vote - over 25 percent - to self-described "conservative Democrat
Loren Hooker, who has received some support from Tea party activists.
In Kentucky, Republican Rand Paul, the relatively libertarian, relatively anti-interventionist son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul,
and Democrat Dan Mongiardo, a populist much disliked by the party
establishment, win their Senate primaries. And in a Pennsylvania House
race, Republican Tim Burns takes the Democratic seat of the late
Congressman Jack Murtha. Toss in a couple of upsets in gubernatorial
and down-ballot races and you've got everything you need to speculate
about 2010 being another 1994 - or at least a 1978 (a year when
Republicans won enough off-year races to signal that then-President
Jimmy Carter's number was up.)

GOT NO REVOLUTION? GOT NO REVOLUTION! Specter and Lincoln beat back
credible challengers with relative ease, Wyden wins without a sweat.
Kentucky picks party favorites Jack Conway for the Democratic Senate
nomination and Trey Grayson on the GOP side. And the Murtha seat stays
Democratic, albeit in the hands of former Murtha aide Mark Critz, who
did not exactly run against President Obama but most definitely ran
away from him. That doesn't matter much, however, as the Murtha
district never liked Obama anyway - it voted for Hillary Clinton in the
2008 Pennsylvania presidential primary and for Republican John McCain
in the fall.

This is the incumbents-can-pop-some-champagne corks result, especially
if the turnout on the Democratic and Republican sides in the various
primary states follows patter. (Note: A big bump in Republican turnout
would be significant, as it might suggest a more motivated base;
conversely, unexpectedly high Democratic primary voting - as we saw
earlier this month in North Carolina - could further confirm that the
Tea Party talk is just that: talk.

UPHEAVAL, MAYBE, BUT NO REVOLUTION: Specter loses, Lincoln wins, or
vice versa. Wyden does fine. No House incumbents are upset. The Murtha
seat stays Democratic. But Paul wins the GOP nod in Kentucky and the
Tea Party influence is felt in the Oregon Republican gubernatorial
primary.

This would be the sort of mixed result that everyone will try to spin
but that, in reality, will suggest that 2010 could be a less volatile
year than is generally anticipated. The key word, of course, is "could."

There will be more primaries - particularly in California in early
June, where there are rollicking Republican primaries for governor and
U.S. Senate and where the L.A. congressional race between Democratic
incumbent Jane Harman and progressive challenger Marcy Winogradkeeps
getting hotter. And we'll all keep looking for the evidence that this
is going to be a year of fireworks or, perhaps, that the show has been
postponed until 2012.