The unpopularity of President Joe Biden’s Israel-Gaza policy among Arab Americans, African Americans, and young people could well flip the electoral vote to hand former President Donald Trump the 2024 election. A few tens of thousands of these voters in a handful of swing states who likely would have voted for Biden but vote for Trump, a third party, or just stay home could well be enough for Trump to win the presidency legally.
As I recently wrote, the 2024 presidential election is likely to be decided by less than 100,000 voters in three of six swing states. Biden won the popular vote by more than 7 million votes in 2020, and Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes in 2016. But in 2020 Biden only won the electoral vote and the presidency by an aggregate of 42,918 votes in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia and in 2016 Trump won the electoral vote and the presidency by an aggregate of 77,744 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The electoral vote in 2024 is likely to be similarly close.
Muslim-American Voters Rejecting Biden
A total of 64% of Muslim-American voters nationwide and 70% in Michigan picked Biden for president in 2020. A recent poll found that only 5.2% of Muslim American voters currently say they would vote for Biden in 2024.
Michigan went for Trump over Clinton by only 10,704 votes in 2016 and went for Biden over Trump by 154,185 votes in 2020. It had 206,050 registered Muslim voters in 2020, as well as about 300,000 people claiming Middle Eastern and North African ancestry. If only 5% vote for Biden in 2024 and the rest stay home, vote third party, or vote for Trump, that alone could hand Trump Michigan’s 16 electoral votes.
At a recent Detroit rally calling for a cease-fire, state Democratic legislative majority floor leader Abraham Aiyash said, “America, you promised the world that all men and women are created equal. Yet somehow you find billions of dollars to dehumanize Palestinians.”
Overall, in 2020 the Democratic Party held a 77%-11% advantage over Republicans. The latest Gallup poll shows that shrinking to 66%-19%.
Nasser Beydoun, who is running as a Democrat to replace retiring Michigan Democrat Debbie Stabenow in the U.S. Senate, told a Michigan TV station that he won’t vote for Biden in 2024: “He [Biden] has lost a constituency that voted overwhelmingly for him in Michigan. And if he wants to see reelection, he needs Michigan. And right now he doesn’t have it.”
In nearby Pennsylvania there are 167,618 registered Muslim-American voters. Trump defeated Clinton by 44,952 votes in 2016 and Biden defeated Trump by 80,855 votes in 2020. If only 5% of Pennsylvania Muslim voters pull the lever for Biden in 2024, that would be enough for Biden to lose Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes to Trump.
In Georgia, which Biden won by the infamous 11,779 votes that Trump asked Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find,” there are 79,345 Muslim-American voters. If most Georgia Muslim Americans don’t vote for Biden, there go another 16 electoral votes.
African-American Voters Rejecting Biden Over Israel Policy
Speaking of Georgia, where the African-American vote is key, Biden’s stance on the Israel-Palestine war is one of the factors likely depressing the African American vote for Biden, as it is in the rest of the country. More than 1,000 African America pastors nationally (including 200 in Georgia) representing hundreds of thousand of congregants have demanded a cease-fire, through open letters and advertisements. One of the first signers was Rev. Timothy McDonald of the 1,500 member First Iconium Baptist Church in Atlanta, who stated, “It’s going to be very hard to persuade our people to go back to the polls and vote for Biden.”
Overall, in 2020 the Democratic Party held a 77%-11% advantage over Republicans. The latest
Gallup poll shows that shrinking to 66%-19%. Similarly, Democrats’ lead among Hispanic adults has shrunk to 12% compared to 31% in 2021 and 36% in 2016. This drop isn’t caused solely by Biden’s stance on the Israel-Palestine war, but it sure ain’t helping.
Young Voters Rejecting Biden Over Israel Policy
Polls also show shifts of under 35-year-old voters away from Biden, with some polls even showing Trump defeating him among this group. In Pennsylvania, a recent Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania showed Biden up only 5% over Trump, compared to 16% in 2020. According to New York Times pollster Nate Cohn, “The young Biden [2020] voters with anti-Israel views are the likeliest to report switching to Mr. Trump… [O]pposition to the war itself is probably contributing to Mr. Biden’s unusual weakness among young voters.”
How Biden Can Both Do the Right Thing and Reclaim Lost Voters
Meanwhile, Biden and Senate Democrats, in the wake of Republicans killing the bipartisan border bill at Trump’s behest, are now pushing a foreign aid bill with $14.1 billion in military aid to Israel, $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, plus $10 billion in humanitarian aid for civilians. The Ukraine aid is probably necessary to help Ukraine have enough supplies to hold off Russian aggression. As Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman reported, the ammunition shortage in Ukraine “has already led to an increase in Ukrainian casualties.” And the humanitarian aid is a good thing—if anything, it’s not large enough given the scale of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
But nearly $10 billion more in unconditional military aid to Israel will only demonstrate America and Biden’s lack of concern for Palestinians and will threaten Biden’s reelection, which right wing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is probably hoping for. U.S. military aid to Israel exceeded $3.8 billion in 2023, and the U.S. is already committed to providing at least $3.3 billion in military aid through 2028. Another $10 billion in military aid would constitute about two-thirds of Israel’s annual military budget. It’s completely unnecessary to enable Israel to combat Hamas for its horrendous attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7, which is essentially a guerilla war.
Words from Biden are not enough. He must use his power as the primary outside funder of the Israeli war machine to stop the slaughter of innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza and to insist on an Israeli commitment to a pathway to a two-state solution which both recognizes Israel’s right to exist with security and the right of Palestinians to their own sovereignty.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu, whose political career has been dedicated to blocking any Palestinian sovereignty, has been thanking Biden for his support by giving him the middle finger. When Biden and Netanyahu spoke three weeks ago, Biden proposed a demilitarized Palestinian state for Gaza and the West Bank. Bibi immediately shot him down in public, issuing a statement that “after Hamas is destroyed Israel must retain security control over Gaza… a requirement that contradicts the demand for Palestinian sovereignty.” Egypt and Qatar, with behind the scenes U.S. help, have been working to try to negotiate a hostage exchange deal between Israel and Hamas and presented a Hamas offer to Israel a few days ago. Rather than offering to negotiate the terms of an exchange, Netanyahu shot it down as “crazy.”
In a press conference on Thursday, Biden mildly criticized Netanyahu’s policies, saying that Israel’s actions in Gaza are “over the top” and that he was seeking a sustained pause in fighting as diplomats seek to salvage cease-fire talks after Netanyahu rejected a Hamas proposal. “There are a lot of innocent people who are starving, in trouble, and dying. It’s got to stop.”
Words from Biden are not enough. He must use his power as the primary outside funder of the Israeli war machine to stop the slaughter of innocent Palestinian civilians in Gaza and to insist on an Israeli commitment to a pathway to a two-state solution which both recognizes Israel’s right to exist with security and the right of Palestinians to their own sovereignty.
At the very least, he must insist that Democratic Senators amend the stand-alone aid bill to condition all further aid to Israel on Israel:
- Negotiating an extended cease-fire to obtain the return of the hostages, which could lead to a permanent cease-fire;
- Facilitating massive humanitarian aid to Gaza;
- Enacting zero tolerance for settler violence, ending all provocative actions on the West Bank and East Jerusalem;
- Rejecting all plans for Israel to reoccupy Gaza; and
- Accepting the principle of an independent Palestinian state.
This is the minimum right thing for the U.S. to do. It might also help Biden reclaim the votes of Muslim Americans, African Americans, and young people that threaten his reelection and make Trump’s election more likely.
Trump would certainly be worse for Palestinians than Biden. He has called for a ban on all Muslim immigration to the United States; moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which Palestinians opposed; recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights into Israel; and has never shown any concern for Palestinian rights. Protesting Biden by voting for Trump, a third party, or staying home is self-sabotaging. But it is Biden who is providing military aid to Israel, which it is using in its war in Gaza where it has killed and injured so many Palestinian civilians, after Hamas’ horrendous attack killing, raping, and kidnapping Israeli civilians.
As progressive African American New York Times columnist Charles M. Blow wrote recently, “I believe Hamas is a terrorist organization committed to the eradication of Israel, that its Oct. 7 attack against Israel was ghastly, and that all the hostages taken in the attack must be returned. At the same time, I believe the carnage in Gaza—thousands of civilian deaths, including thousands of children—is unjustified and unacceptable… On those points, I adhere to a fundamental humanism. As the Guardian columnist Naomi Klein wrote in October, the progressive response to this war should be ‘rooted in values that side with the child over the gun every single time, no matter whose gun and no matter whose child.’”
