March, 10 2020, 12:00am EDT

Trump Cannot Be Trusted with a Social Security Payroll Tax Cut, CEPR Economist Says
WASHINGTON
President Donald Trump said he will announce today details of measures to boost the economy. Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR)'s senior economist, Dean Baker, has this comment on the proposal.
"President Trump is proposing a temporary cut in the Social Security payroll tax as part of an economic stimulus package to offset the impact of the coronavirus. While the economy will need a boost to limit the extent of the downturn caused by the virus, cutting the Social Security tax is the wrong way to go.
"Under the law, Social Security payments can only come from the program's dedicated revenue stream, which is primarily the Social Security payroll tax. Under President Obama, a temporary Social Security tax cut was put in place in 2011. The lost revenue was replaced by general revenue, so the Trust Fund was not in any way diminished. When the tax cut expired, the tax rate returned to its prior level.
"Unfortunately, Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress cannot be trusted to protect the Social Security trust fund. They have frequently proposed cuts to the program, and under President Bush, sought to privatize it. They may well use a temporary tax cut as an opportunity to weaken the program's finances so that they can then push for cuts or privatization.
"A much better model for a stimulus would be President Obama's Make Work Pay tax credit. This was a refundable tax credit that gave workers 6.2 percent of their pay, up to $400 per worker. It was phased out for higher earners, beginning at roughly $100,000. This is a more progressive structure and does not in any way threaten the Social Security trust fund. Given inflation over the last decade, and the needs of the economy, we may want to double the size of the credit.
"Of course, the stimulus must go further to include items like tax credits for paid sick days, increased SNAP benefits, and other subsidies for low-income families, in addition to free testing and treatment for the coronavirus. However, Congress should not allow a stimulus to dampen a coronavirus-induced recession to be an excuse to attack Social Security."
The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) was established in 1999 to promote democratic debate on the most important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. In order for citizens to effectively exercise their voices in a democracy, they should be informed about the problems and choices that they face. CEPR is committed to presenting issues in an accurate and understandable manner, so that the public is better prepared to choose among the various policy options.
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How Louisiana Advocates Are Continuing to Fight the Trump-Backed LNG Boom
"We always have had to take matters into our own hands, and we have protected ourselves against enormous companies," one local campaigner said.
Apr 30, 2025
Louisiana advocates and their allies are not giving up in their fight to stop the liquefied natural gas buildout that threatens the health and well-being of Gulf Coast communities—not to mention the stability of the global climate—even as the Trump administration doubles down on its commitment to expanding LNG infrastructure.
In a briefing on Tuesday, community members, local advocates, and international campaigners shared how they would continue to push back against Venture Global, an LNG company that has amassed a record of ecosystem destruction and air pollution violations at its currently operating Calcasieu Pass export terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. Despite this, the Trump administration's Department of Energy granted conditional approval for the company’s nearby Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2), undoing the pause that the outgoing Biden administration had placed on it and other LNG approvals as it considered the public interest ramifications of LNG exports.
Yet Gulf Coast campaigners, who are used to dealing with a lax regulatory environment at the state level, were not defeated.
"Anybody who reports here in Louisiana regularly understands that we've never been protected by our regulatory environment. Never," Anne Rolfes, who directs the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, told reporters during a briefing on Tuesday. "And so we always have had to take matters into our own hands, and we have protected ourselves against enormous companies."
Misadventure Global
One key strategy that the Louisiana Bucket Brigade and others have used to get around the regulatory rubber stamping of bad actors is to raise public awareness of how the companies turning coastal Louisiana into a sacrifice zone really operate.
Case in point is Venture Global. Rolfe and John Allaire—a 40-year veteran of the oil and gas industry who lives next door to the Calcasieu Pass terminal—laid out its short but extensive record of environmental violations and unethical business practices.
Even before the original Calcasieu Pass began exporting, in January 2022, it had to clear a space for tankers to access the facility.
"It's understood that this is a volatile fuel to lock into, that you don't want to rely on a fuel that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump control."
"They pumped hundreds of thousands of cubic yards of black viscous sludge from their marine berth out into the front of the Gulf of Mexico," Allaire said. "And that was the first indication of what was to come with Venture Global."
Since it began operating, the company has added air, noise, and light pollution to the water pollution that has devastated local fisheries.
Allaire has taken hundreds of videos and photos of flaring incidents.
"The light pollution is unbelievable," he said. "At night, I can literally read a book when the flares are going, and I'm over a mile away from their flare stacks."
Allaire's observations are backed up by the official record. In June 2023, the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality sent Venture Global a compliance order detailing over 2,000 air permit violations from its first 10 months of operation, Allaire said. The company has yet to resolve the complaint, and the state sent them a warning letter in March covering their 2024 and 2025 rule-breaking.
The company also has a history of failing to report its flares and other excess emissions to the Department of Environmental Quality as required by the Clean Air Act.
If they reported and then investigated their violations, "that would enable them to really understand what's happening at their facility so that they could prevent future problems," Rolfe said. "They absolutely aren't doing that."
In March, the Louisiana Bucket Brigade and the Habitat Recovery Project notified Venture Global of intent to sue the company over Clean Air Act violations at its Calcasieu Pass facility.
But the environmental groups aren't the only ones suing Venture Global. The company stretched its commissioning phase—during which it is considered still in the process of establishing itself and can sell its products to the highest bidder rather than honoring its contracts—for three years and three months, beginning normal operations just this April.
"This is absolutely off from the industry norm," Rolfe said.
Now, other major fossil fuel companies, including Shell and BP, are pursuing arbitration claims against Venture Global for breach of contract. Investors have joined a class-action lawsuit against it, saying it violated federal securities law by misrepresenting its prospects.
Yet Venture Global has huge ambitions for the region. In addition to Calcasieu Pass and CP2, it wants to build three other export terminals in coastal Louisiana and more than triple its capacity from 30 million tons per annum (MTPA) of liquid gas—already over a quarter of the 88 MTPA exported by the U.S. exports in 2024—to 104 MTPA.
"As a review, they're flouting the Clean Air Act. They've manipulated the commissioning phase. They're being sued by everybody they've done business with. Is this a company that our country and our state should put such faith in?" Rolfe asked.
She answered her own question: "Of course, our answer is no."
Stall Tactics
Another strategy the Louisiana Bucket Brigade and their allies seek to employ is to delay Venture Global's ambitions long enough for the economic reality of the LNG boom to catch up with it.
In addition to the approval of CP2, Australian company Woodside announced on Monday that it had approved a Louisiana LNG project worth $17.5 billion. Yet the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis concluded in April that the massive growth in LNG capacity would exceed dwindling demand within two years.
"It's understood that this is a volatile fuel to lock into, that you don't want to rely on a fuel that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump control. So people are trying to get off of gas," Rolfe said.
"The economics are going to catch up with them. I just want it to be before they destroy the coast of Louisiana."
This means that LNG companies like Woodside and Venture Global are behaving "like a kid in a candy store," Rolfe continued. "That kid, unchecked, will eat so much, they'll throw up. I think the same is true with this industry. Unchecked, it will do itself harm."
The key is therefore to stall the buildout long enough that many projects become infeasible. This tactic has worked for frontline communities during the first Trump administration, Rolfe said. Through a combination of public pressure, records requests, and legal action, community advocates were able to delay the construction of a plastic plant proposed by the Chinese company Wanhua Chemical U.S. Operation, LLC, which would have released the World War 1-era nerve gas phosgene into the already pollution-burdened St. James Parish.
The economic outlook for the plant had always been "dubious" Rolfe said, and eventually the company gave up on trying to build it.
"They could have gotten approval and gotten on their way within a month. But our suit and then our constant presence and making them table things and so forth, drew it out and let the economics catch up with them," Rolfe said.
Rolfe added that the gas industry has similarly gotten ahead of itself.
"They're greedy, right? They want to grab all the candy they can, and the economics are going to catch up with them. I just want it to be before they destroy the coast of Louisiana."
Very Risk Business
Another strategy to slow down the building of new LNG facilities like CP2 is to target the one thing, in addition to permits and funds, that they can't move forward without: insurance.
Insurance is one sector in which the economic impact of the climate crisis is already being felt, as Ethan Nuss, senior energy finance campaigner at Rainforest Action Network, explained.
For example, major insurer Chubb earns $1.5 billion a year in premiums from the fossil fuel industry, which was already canceled out early this year with the $1.5 billion in pre-tax losses they took from the Los Angeles wildfires. On a local level, some insurers have pulled out of Louisiana all together to avoid insuring against climate-fueled extreme weather events.
"Once they are really educated about the permit violations and the legal risks and the true risk landscape that they're facing by taking on this client, many of them are very concerned."
"This is not a time to build something like CP2 that would deepen the climate crisis," Nuss said.
Because insurers are on the books for both fossil fuel projects and the damage for climate disasters, and because many of them have climate and human rights policies, they are vulnerable to growing pressure from the climate movement to drop the oil and gas clients costing them so much money.
RAN in February published the names of the major insurers for Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass, which it obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request. These included Chubb subsidiary ACE American Insurance Company, AIG subsidiary National Union Fire Insurance Co., Allianz, Swiss Re, AXA, and Tokio Marine subsidiary Houston Casualty Company.
"That has kicked off a global effort to reach out to those insurers and begin to educate them about what is happening in Southwest Louisiana, the impacts from Calcasieu Pass, and what associated risks they're facing," Nuss said.
As a result of these efforts, Swiss Re has agreed to meet with the fishing community of Southwest Louisiana, to talk about the "devastating impacts on their livelihoods" from Calcasieu Pass' operations.
"Often with these global financial institutions, they aren't fully aware of what's really happening on the ground. That client is maybe just another line on the spreadsheet. But once they really start hearing the stories, once they are really educated about the permit violations and the legal risks and the true risk landscape that they're facing by taking on this client, many of them are very concerned," Nuss said.
Nuss hopes that, once fully informed, insurers would decide any project of Venture Global's is a "very risky business that they don't want to be involved in."
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'Nakedly Corrupt Self-Enrichment': Watchdog Raises Alarm Over Trump Crypto Scheme
"These kinds of arrangements could allow for the Trump family to sell out the interests of the American people to the highest bidder," said Accountable.US.
Apr 30, 2025
A progressive watchdog organization on Wednesday urged key congressional committees to investigate U.S. President Donald Trump's involvement in a multimillion-dollar cryptocurrency deal that the group warned could open the door to corrupt and unlawful self-dealing.
In a letter to the top members of financial services and banking panels, Accountable.US president Caroline Ciccone called for a probe of a recent transaction between World Liberty Financial—the Trump family's crypto venture—and the Abu Dhabi-based crypto firm DWF Labs.
Ciccone argued that the deal, inked just before the Trump administration disbanded the Justice Department's crypto enforcement unit, "is emblematic of an unprecedented and rapidly worsening situation of the president of the United States using a web of Trump family crypto interests as his own personal mint while in office—interests that are largely out of public view and that almost certainly present conflicts against the public interest in many cases, including threats of foreign influence and to U.S. national security."
"These kinds of arrangements could allow for the Trump family to sell out the interests of the American people to the highest bidder, whether foreign or domestic," Ciccone warned. "This is a five-alarm fire for potential corruption that could leave everyday Americans worse off, and Congress should act accordingly."
A shady crypto firm tied to Russia wired $25M to a Trump family company—days before Trump shut down the DOJ team investigating them. Now he’s dining with top coin holders. What are they buying? accountable.us/watchdog-let...
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— Accountable.US (@accountable-us.bsky.social) April 30, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Earlier this month, DWF Labs announced the purchase of $25 million worth of tokens issued by the Trump family's World Liberty Financial, a deal that the Abu Dhabi-based firm vaguely described as a "strategic private transaction." The firm also announced plans for a "strategic expansion to the United States with a new office in New York City."
The New York Timesreported Tuesday that in a matter of months, World Liberty Financial "has erased centuries-old presidential norms, eviscerating the boundary between private enterprise and government policy in a manner without precedent in modern American history."
"Mr. Trump is now not only a major crypto dealer; he is also the industry's top policymaker," the Times noted. "So far in his second term, Mr. Trump has leveraged his presidential powers in ways that have benefited the industry—and in some cases his own company—even though he had spent years deriding crypto as a haven for drug dealers and scammers."
Ethics concerns surrounding Trump's foray into the cryptocurrency industry intensified last week after the official website for the president's meme coin, $TRUMP, announced that the top 220 investors in the coin would be granted "an intimate private dinner" with the president next month at his private golf club in Virginia. The top 25 holders will get a "VIP White House tour."
The website includes an interactive leaderboard that shows the list of people or entities holding $TRUMP coins and the current value of those holdings.
"Have Dinner with President Trump and the $TRUMP Community! Let the President know how many $TRUMP coins YOU own!" declared the invitation, which led two Democratic senators to call for an ethics probe.
The dinner invitation for top holders sent the coin's price surging by more than 50% last week as traders rushed to purchase the token to potentially gain access to the president. The flurry of transactions netted insiders nearly $900,000 in trading fees over just two days, according toCNBC.
"Never in U.S. presidential history has there been a more nakedly corrupt self-enrichment scheme," Accountable.US executive director Tony Carrk said in a statement last week. "The president is openly inviting investors to have a bidding war over who can buy the most access to him while he laughs all the way to the bank."
"There has never been a clearer case of a president using their office to put money in their pocket, or greater potential for special interests to buy an administration's favor that could threaten the public interest," Carrk added. "Donald Trump is trampling over every historical ethical norm to see how much corruption he can get away with before his allies in Congress flinch."
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'Growth Has Simply Vanished': Under Trump, US Economy Shrinks for First Time Since 2022
"Our economy is crumbling under President Trump's mismanagement," said the head of one progressive group.
Apr 30, 2025
The United States economy decelerated during the first quarter of 2025, as businesses braced for sweeping tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a Wednesday "advance estimate" from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis—marking the first contraction of the country's real gross domestic product since 2022.
Real GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.3% in January, February, and March of 2025, according to the report. That headline figure is a dramatic turn around from the final quarter of 2024, when real GDP increased 2.4%.
According to the report, "the decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports... and a decrease in government spending." When calculating GDP, imports are subtracted, meaning more imports will yield a lower number.
A number of outlets have cautioned that the 0.3% contraction figure is somewhat misleading. Axiospointed to solid business investment and consumer spending data in the report as evidence "signaling at least some underlying momentum in the economy—at least once volatile measures like trade are stripped out." The New York Timesoffered similar analysis.
But even with this caveat, the economic picture is less than rosy. "Maybe some of this negativity is due to a rush to bring in imports before the tariffs go up, but there is simply no way for policy advisors to sugar-coat this. Growth has simply vanished," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.
Several observers were quick to point the finger at the Trump administration.
"Our economy is crumbling under President Trump's mismanagement, and today's falling GDP data confirms our slide toward a recession," said Lindsay Owens, the executive director of the progressive group Groundwork Collaborative. "Trump is creating the conditions for a particularly brutal recession."
"It turns out that when you launch a trade war with blanket tariffs, layoff federal workers en masse, cancel federal contracts, and reduce skilled immigration, you will have negative GDP growth," wrote Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) on X.
Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) said that "Trump's chaos is clearly and significantly raising the risk of a recession, and the economic warning lights are all flashing red."
In response to the release, markets slipped on Wednesday.
Trump, for his part, took to his social media site Truth Social on Wednesday to say that "This is Biden's Stock Market, not Trump's." He added that "tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers … This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other."
Economists say they think Wednesday's numbers are related to tariffs. According to reporting from the Times, the main takeaway from the report is that consumers and businesses started to modify their behavior even prior to Trumps "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, which rattled markets.
A surge in the trade deficit edged GDP into negative territory, said Dean Baker, senior economist for the left-leaning economic think tank the Center for Economic and Policy Research, in a statement on Wednesday. "This was due to massive stockpiling of inventories and purchases of durable goods in anticipation of tariffs."
"The negative GDP number could also mean the end of the big upswing in productivity growth under Biden. This is bad news for both real wage growth and inflation," continued Baker.
"No surprise that GDP took a hit in the first quarter, mainly because the balance of trade blew up as companies imported goods like crazy to front-run tariffs. The more telling number for the future of the expansion was consumer spending, and it grew, but at a relatively weak pace," said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, according to CNBC.
Wednesday's report also registered increased inflation. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, registered a 3.6% gain for Q1, up from 2.4% in the final quarter of last year.
The numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis come a day after reports of consumer confidence in April dipping to lows not seen since early in the COVID-19 pandemic.
There is still major economic data set to be released this week. On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its jobs report for the month of April.
This article was updated with a comment from Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.).
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