'It's the Abortion Ban': Final Iowa Poll Shows Harris Leading Trump 47-44

Political observers expressed shock Saturday evening as the Des Moines Register released its final poll before Election Day showing Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by three points.

Harris was supported by 47% of respondents compared to 44% who backed Trump.

The newspaper's poll, conducted by pollster J. Ann Selzer, is widely regarded as the "gold standard" survey of voters in the state and has been recognized as "predicting" numerous election results in Iowa and giving a potential preview of how candidates could fare in other Midwestern states with similar demographics.

Progressive advocates cautioned against placing too much faith in a single poll—even a widely respected one—and urged Harris supporters to continue canvassing, phone-banking, and taking action to defeat Trump and the far-right MAGA movement.

But the unexpected result in a state that hasn't been considered a swing state in this election, and was widely assumed to be a Trump-supporting state, led political observers to look closely at the poll, which showed significant shifts toward Harris among women.

Women aged 65 and older supported Harris over Trump, 63% to 28%, in the poll. Women who identify as political independents also backed her, 57% to 29%.

Overall, women in the state are backing Harris in the poll by a margin of 20 points, according to the survey.

Lyz Lenz, a journalist based in Iowa, said she believed the poll could be linked to one major change in Iowa since the last presidential election: the six-week abortion ban that took effect in July, banning abortion care after fetal cardiac activity can be detected. Similar abortion bans have been blamed for at least four deaths of pregnant women in Texas and Georgia.

"It's the abortion ban," said Lenz. "Women are furious."

Daniel Nichanian, editor-in-chief and founder of the digital magazine Bolts, said the result could preview losses for state Supreme Court justices who have upheld abortion bans in a number of states, including Iowa.

In 10 states this year, voters will make their voices heard on ballot initiatives regarding the right to abortion care. In traditionally red states including Kansas and Kentucky since Roe was overturned, people have voted to protect the right to obtain an abortion.

"It's the Dobbs election," said Helaine Olen of the American Economic Liberties Project. "The Iowa poll is just the latest proof."

Selzer herself told the BBC that many respondents talked about abortion rights.

"The people who say they're supporting Kamala Harris, the issue they say they're thinking about most is democracy, about half of them saying that's the most important thing," she said. "But then half of that, about 25% roughly, say abortion. And Iowa has one of the strictest abortion laws in place... and that may well have played a part in this."

Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, said it would be "foolish to dismiss [Selzer's] poll," but cautioned election watchers against abandoning "all of [their] prior views about the state of the race."

Dan Pfeiffer, a former adviser to President Barack Obama and co-host of "Pod Save America," said one possible interpretation among several is that "Harris isn't really winning Iowa but the poll is capturing late-stage momentum that bodes well for Wisconsin, Michigan, [and] Pennsylvania."

Advocacy group Indivisible on Sunday morning advised supporters to "send this Iowa poll to all your group chats. Then, sign up to talk to some voters. With your help, we're going to win this thing in two days."