Skip to main content

Sign up for our newsletter.

Quality journalism. Progressive values. Direct to your inbox.

Donald Trump speaks at a March rally in Fountain Hills, Arizona. (Photo: Gage Skidmore/cc/flickr)

Donald Trump speaks at a March rally in Fountain Hills, Arizona. (Photo: Gage Skidmore/cc/flickr)

'Trustworthy' Trump? Plagued by Email Controversy, Clinton's Lead Plummets

New polling finds that the presumptive GOP nominee is ahead in two of three key swing states

Lauren McCauley

The race between the two presidential frontrunners remains too close to call in the final stretch leading to the two major party conventions, as new polling shows that Donald Trump has overtaken Hillary Clinton in key battleground states while her national lead has shrunk to just three points.

A McClatchy-Marist survey released Wednesday found that in a head-to-head match-up, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee is currently ahead 42 to 39, which McClatchy notes, marks the first time that support for Clinton has dropped beneath 50 percentage points.

At the same time, likely Republican nominee Trump is now leading in Florida and Pennsylvania, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll, while the two remain locked in a tight race in Ohio. Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without winning at least two of those states.

In Florida, support for Clinton dropped 8 points since June 21, when she was ahead 47-39 percent. She now trails Trump by three points.

She also lost her lead in Pennsylvania, where voters now back Trump 43 to 41 percent, compared to June 21 when Clinton had 42 to Trump's 41 percent.

And in Ohio the two continue to be locked in a tie with 41 percent each, which is just a slight change from the June 21 result, which found a 40-40 percent tie.

Both polls attributed Clinton's slip to the recent controversy over the FBI's recommendation not to charge the former secretary of state for her "extremely careless" handling of classified material through the use of a private email server.

"While there is no definite link between Clinton's drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The billionaire real estate mogul is perceived to be "more honest and trustworthy" than Clinton in each of those swing states. In fact, he now leads in that category by double digits in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

"The good news for Hillary Clinton is that despite a very rough week, she still has a narrow edge" in the national poll, said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the survey. "The bad news is these issues don’t seem to be going away."

The results are slightly different, though no less troubling for the Democratic Party, when third-party candidates are considered.

In Florida, Trump's lead grows to five points (41-36 percent) as seven percent of voters there back Libertarian Gary Johnson and four percent go for Green Party candidate Jill Stein, according to the Quinnipiac survey.

The four-way race also buoys the GOP in Pennsylvania, where Trump takes 40 percent to Clinton's 34 percent. Nine percent of Pennsylvania voters support Johnson while three percent say they would vote for Stein.

The additional candidates also shake up the Ohio tie, where Trump overtakes Clinton 37 to 36 percent as seven percent of voters back Johnson and six percent go for Stein.

Nationally, McClatchy finds that Clinton fares somewhat better in the four-way race, topping Trump 40 to 35 percent, with Johnson winning 10 percent of the vote while Stein wins five percent.

As the Quinnipiac survey was conducted June 30-July 11 and the McClatchy poll began on July 5, the results did not reflect voters opinions' after Clinton's Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, endorsed her candidacy on Tuesday.

As Miringoff noted, the upcoming conventions "are really important" for both parties to secure the many voters who, as McClatchy put it, "are not solely being drawn to these candidates," but who "are often driven as much by their dislike of the opposition."

Many predict that the upcoming conventions, which are being held in important battleground states, will be highly contentious. The Republican National Convention will be next week, in Cleveland, Ohio on July 18-21, and the Democratic Party will convene in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania from July 25-28.

Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.

This is the world we live in. This is the world we cover.

Because of people like you, another world is possible. There are many battles to be won, but we will battle them together—all of us. Common Dreams is not your normal news site. We don't survive on clicks. We don't want advertising dollars. We want the world to be a better place. But we can't do it alone. It doesn't work that way. We need you. If you can help today—because every gift of every size matters—please do. Without Your Support We Simply Don't Exist.

'Political Malpractice': House Democrats' Bill Wouldn't Add Dental to Medicare Until 2028

"I don't want to see it drawn out to as far as the House has proposed," Sen. Bernie Sanders said during a recent press call.

Jake Johnson ·

'How Many More Deaths Must It Take?' Barbados Leader Rips Rich Nations in Fierce UN Speech

"How many more variants of Covid-19 must arrive, how many more, before a worldwide plan for vaccinations will be implemented?"

Jake Johnson ·

To Avert Debt Ceiling Calamity, Democrats Urged to Finally Kill the Filibuster

"The solution is to blow up the filibuster at least for debt limit votes, just as Mitch blew it up to pack the Supreme Court for his big donors."

Jake Johnson ·

Biden Decries 'Outrageous' Treatment of Haitians at Border—But Keeps Deporting Them

"I'm glad to see President Biden speak out about the mistreatment of Haitian asylum-seekers. But his administration's use of Title 42 to deny them the right to make an asylum claim is a much bigger issue."

Jessica Corbett ·

Global Peace Activists Warn of Dangers of US-Led Anti-China Pacts

"No to military alliances and preparation for catastrophic wars," anti-war campaigners from over a dozen nations write in a letter decrying the new AUKUS agreement. "Yes to peace, disarmament, justice, and the climate."

Brett Wilkins ·

Support our work.

We are independent, non-profit, advertising-free and 100% reader supported.

Subscribe to our newsletter.

Quality journalism. Progressive values.
Direct to your inbox.

Subscribe to our Newsletter.

Common Dreams, Inc. Founded 1997. Registered 501(c3) Non-Profit | Privacy Policy
Common Dreams Logo