This is How the World Ends: Twelve Risks That Threaten Human Existence
'Mass deaths and famines, social collapse and mass migration are certainly possible in this scenario,' report authors write of extreme climate change
Extreme climate change. Global pandemic. Major asteroid impact. The rise of artificial intelligence.
These are just a few of the potentially world-ending events that threaten civilization as we know it, according to a new report from researchers at Oxford University.
The study, "Global Challenges" (pdf), urges readers to consider a new category of global risks--low-probability, high-impact scenarios that hover at the extreme end of the spectrum.
"This report has, to the best of the authors' knowledge, created the first list of global risks with impacts that for all practical purposes can be called infinite." However, the authors note, "the real focus is not on the almost unimaginable impacts of the risks the report outlines. Its fundamental purpose is to encourage global collaboration and to use this new category of risk as a driver for innovation."
The report looks only at events that could trigger a civilization's collapse--"defined as a drastic decrease in human population size and political/economic/social complexity, globally for an extended time."
In the case of extreme climate change, for example:
Mass deaths and famines, social collapse and mass migration are certainly possible in this scenario. Combined with shocks to the agriculture and biosphere-dependent industries of the more developed countries, this could lead to global conflict and possibly civilization collapse. Further evidence of the risk comes from signs that past civilization collapses have been driven by climate change.
According to the researchers, the 12 global risks that threaten human civilization are:
Current risks
1. Extreme Climate Change
2. Nuclear War
3. Ecological Catastrophe
4. Global Pandemic
5. Global System CollapseExogenic risks
6. Major Asteroid Impact
7. SupervolcanoEmerging risks
8. Synthetic Biology
9. Nanotechnology
10. Artificial Intelligence
11. Uncertain RisksGlobal policy risk
12. Future Bad Global Governance
Total oblivion is not a foregone conclusion, however.
For each scenario, the authors lay out both the worst-case outcomes and factors influencing those outcomes.
"There are remedies, including technological and institutional, for all risks," reads the report. "But they will require collaboration of a sort humanity has not achieved before, and the creation of systems which can deal with problems preemptively."
To that end, Global Challenges identifies 10 strategies to "help mitigate immediate threats while also contributing to a future global governance system capable of addressing global risks with a potential infinite impact."
That list includes:
- Better quality risk assessment for global challenges
- Development of early warning systems
- Encouraging visualization of complex systems
- Increasing the focus on the probability of extreme events
- Establishing a Global Risk and Opportunity Indicator to guide governance
- Explore the possibility of establishing a Global Risk Organization
Urgent. It's never been this bad.
Dear Common Dreams reader, It’s been nearly 30 years since I co-founded Common Dreams with my late wife, Lina Newhouser. We had the radical notion that journalism should serve the public good, not corporate profits. It was clear to us from the outset what it would take to build such a project. No paid advertisements. No corporate sponsors. No millionaire publisher telling us what to think or do. Many people said we wouldn't last a year, but we proved those doubters wrong. Together with a tremendous team of journalists and dedicated staff, we built an independent media outlet free from the constraints of profits and corporate control. Our mission from the outset was simple. To inform. To inspire. To ignite change for the common good. Building Common Dreams was not easy. Our survival was never guaranteed. When you take on the most powerful forces—Wall Street greed, fossil fuel industry destruction, Big Tech lobbyists, and uber-rich oligarchs who have spent billions upon billions rigging the economy and democracy in their favor—the only bulwark you have is supporters who believe in your work. But here’s the urgent message from me today. It’s never been this bad out there. And it’s never been this hard to keep us going. At the very moment Common Dreams is most needed and doing some of its best and most important work, the threats we face are intensifying. Right now, with just hours left in our Spring Campaign, we're still falling short of our make-or-break goal. When everyone does the little they can afford, we are strong. But if that support retreats or dries up, so do we. Can you make a gift right now to make sure Common Dreams not only survives but thrives? There is no backup plan or rainy day fund. There is only you. —Craig Brown, Co-founder |
Extreme climate change. Global pandemic. Major asteroid impact. The rise of artificial intelligence.
These are just a few of the potentially world-ending events that threaten civilization as we know it, according to a new report from researchers at Oxford University.
The study, "Global Challenges" (pdf), urges readers to consider a new category of global risks--low-probability, high-impact scenarios that hover at the extreme end of the spectrum.
"This report has, to the best of the authors' knowledge, created the first list of global risks with impacts that for all practical purposes can be called infinite." However, the authors note, "the real focus is not on the almost unimaginable impacts of the risks the report outlines. Its fundamental purpose is to encourage global collaboration and to use this new category of risk as a driver for innovation."
The report looks only at events that could trigger a civilization's collapse--"defined as a drastic decrease in human population size and political/economic/social complexity, globally for an extended time."
In the case of extreme climate change, for example:
Mass deaths and famines, social collapse and mass migration are certainly possible in this scenario. Combined with shocks to the agriculture and biosphere-dependent industries of the more developed countries, this could lead to global conflict and possibly civilization collapse. Further evidence of the risk comes from signs that past civilization collapses have been driven by climate change.
According to the researchers, the 12 global risks that threaten human civilization are:
Current risks
1. Extreme Climate Change
2. Nuclear War
3. Ecological Catastrophe
4. Global Pandemic
5. Global System CollapseExogenic risks
6. Major Asteroid Impact
7. SupervolcanoEmerging risks
8. Synthetic Biology
9. Nanotechnology
10. Artificial Intelligence
11. Uncertain RisksGlobal policy risk
12. Future Bad Global Governance
Total oblivion is not a foregone conclusion, however.
For each scenario, the authors lay out both the worst-case outcomes and factors influencing those outcomes.
"There are remedies, including technological and institutional, for all risks," reads the report. "But they will require collaboration of a sort humanity has not achieved before, and the creation of systems which can deal with problems preemptively."
To that end, Global Challenges identifies 10 strategies to "help mitigate immediate threats while also contributing to a future global governance system capable of addressing global risks with a potential infinite impact."
That list includes:
- Better quality risk assessment for global challenges
- Development of early warning systems
- Encouraging visualization of complex systems
- Increasing the focus on the probability of extreme events
- Establishing a Global Risk and Opportunity Indicator to guide governance
- Explore the possibility of establishing a Global Risk Organization
Extreme climate change. Global pandemic. Major asteroid impact. The rise of artificial intelligence.
These are just a few of the potentially world-ending events that threaten civilization as we know it, according to a new report from researchers at Oxford University.
The study, "Global Challenges" (pdf), urges readers to consider a new category of global risks--low-probability, high-impact scenarios that hover at the extreme end of the spectrum.
"This report has, to the best of the authors' knowledge, created the first list of global risks with impacts that for all practical purposes can be called infinite." However, the authors note, "the real focus is not on the almost unimaginable impacts of the risks the report outlines. Its fundamental purpose is to encourage global collaboration and to use this new category of risk as a driver for innovation."
The report looks only at events that could trigger a civilization's collapse--"defined as a drastic decrease in human population size and political/economic/social complexity, globally for an extended time."
In the case of extreme climate change, for example:
Mass deaths and famines, social collapse and mass migration are certainly possible in this scenario. Combined with shocks to the agriculture and biosphere-dependent industries of the more developed countries, this could lead to global conflict and possibly civilization collapse. Further evidence of the risk comes from signs that past civilization collapses have been driven by climate change.
According to the researchers, the 12 global risks that threaten human civilization are:
Current risks
1. Extreme Climate Change
2. Nuclear War
3. Ecological Catastrophe
4. Global Pandemic
5. Global System CollapseExogenic risks
6. Major Asteroid Impact
7. SupervolcanoEmerging risks
8. Synthetic Biology
9. Nanotechnology
10. Artificial Intelligence
11. Uncertain RisksGlobal policy risk
12. Future Bad Global Governance
Total oblivion is not a foregone conclusion, however.
For each scenario, the authors lay out both the worst-case outcomes and factors influencing those outcomes.
"There are remedies, including technological and institutional, for all risks," reads the report. "But they will require collaboration of a sort humanity has not achieved before, and the creation of systems which can deal with problems preemptively."
To that end, Global Challenges identifies 10 strategies to "help mitigate immediate threats while also contributing to a future global governance system capable of addressing global risks with a potential infinite impact."
That list includes:
- Better quality risk assessment for global challenges
- Development of early warning systems
- Encouraging visualization of complex systems
- Increasing the focus on the probability of extreme events
- Establishing a Global Risk and Opportunity Indicator to guide governance
- Explore the possibility of establishing a Global Risk Organization