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'Fossilflation' Likely to Persist Despite Fragile Iran Ceasefire, Warns Climate Group
"Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the ceasefire holds, oil and gas prices will stay above pre-war levels, and consumers will pay."
Apr 08, 2026
Although oil prices dropped after President Donald Trump backed off his genocidal threat against Iran and announced a two-week ceasefire, the international climate group 350.org warned Wednesday that "'fossilflation'—or inflation caused by volatile and rising prices of oil and gas—is still likely to continue," due to the fragility of the deal and extensively damaged infrastructure.
Since the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, the country has closed the Strait of Hormuz—a key shipping route, including for fossil fuels—to most traffic. Oil prices have soared, and Americans have paid more at the pump, with the national average price for a gallon of gasoline topping $4 for the first time in years. As of Wednesday, it was $4.16, despite Trump's Tuesday night announcement.
"In addition to the horrific loss of human life," 350.org said last week, rising oil and gas prices around the world as a result of the war "have already cost consumers and businesses an additional $104.2-$111.6 billion," an estimate that "does not yet include wider knock-on effects, such as rising fertilizer and food costs, declines in economic output and employment, or broader inflation driven by fossil fuel price volatility."
In the United States alone, during the first month of Trump's war, Americans spent an extra $8.4 billion on gasoline, according to a report released last week by Democratic members of the congressional Joint Economic Committee.
Andreas Sieber, 350.org's head of political strategy, explained Wednesday that "even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the ceasefire holds, oil and gas prices will stay above pre-war levels, and consumers will pay. Volatility remains high, and supply will stay tight due to infrastructure damage and inventory rebuilding."
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) "markets are still exposed, with few alternatives to Hormuz," he continued. "This will deepen energy poverty, hunger, and inequality. Protecting people means prioritizing resilience and affordability now. The ceasefire must become permanent and extend across the whole region."
There are already concerns that the truce could soon fall apart. The US and Israel halted their bombing of Iran, but Israeli forces unleashed their "heaviest strikes yet" on Lebanon, leaving dozens dead and wounded. According to Reuters, "Iran's Tasnim news agency cited an unnamed source warning that Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire if attacks on Lebanon continue."
Iran hit Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates with missile and drone strikes, "several of which targeted vital oil, power, and desalination infrastructure," Reuters reported. "Iran also attacked Saudi Arabia's huge East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea."
Even if the ceasefire holds or is extended, there's also the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As Emory University associate law professor Mark P. Nevitt noted at Just Security on Wednesday, "Tehran continues to exercise de facto control" of the crucial waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
As Nevitt wrote:
Iran's Foreign Minister has declared that vessels seeking to transit the strait must coordinate directly with Iranian armed forces, subject to unspecified "technical limitations"—a posture that amounts to a unilateral assertion of sovereign authority over one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Meanwhile, President Trump has pledged that the United States "will be helping with traffic buildup in the strait," but that commitment remains undefined, and it is far from certain whether US naval forces will play any role. Since the conflict started, Iran has rerouted commercial shipping through Iranian territorial waters and imposed a $2 million transit fee—an illegal "Tehran toll booth." The fragile ceasefire does not appear to dismantle that arrangement...
Oil analysts and executives warn that the strait must reopen by mid-April or supply disruptions will grow significantly worse. This mid-April timing reflects the normal journey time for tankers transiting from the Persian Gulf to Australia and Asian markets. Yet the window for a military solution is narrowing at exactly the moment the military option looks least promising.
Over the past five weeks, green groups have used the conflict to highlight one of the dangers of fossil fuels, other than their significant contributions to the climate emergency. As Sieber of 350.org put it on Wednesday: "This is not a temporary shock but a structural crisis. The only lasting answer is to replace volatile fossil fuels with homegrown, affordable renewable energy."
Sieber's organization has also called for imposing a windfall profits tax on fossil fuel giants that helped Trump return to power and are now benefiting from his unconstitutional war. Greenpeace USA has similarly advocated for a war-related tax on oil and gas companies, as well as a "bold renewable energy policy that finally ends our dependence on volatile fossil fuels"—including on Tuesday, when the president threatened to wipe out Iran's "whole civilization" before announcing the ceasefire deal.
"This is a moment where the vice president and presidential Cabinet must intervene to invoke the 25th Amendment and declare Trump unfit for office," Greenpeace USA program director John Hocevar said of Trump's genocidal threat. "All of us have a responsibility to ensure our members of Congress understand that their constituents expect them to back this action and prevent millions of deaths from happening in our name."
As Common Dreams reported earlier Wednesday, while Trump's Republican Party narrowly controls both chambers of Congress, some Democratic lawmakers are arguing that even with the current ceasefire, the "unstable, unhinged, and unfit" US president must still be removed from office after threatening genocide. There are also mounting calls for another round of votes on a war powers resolution that would permanently halt his unauthorized assault.
Hocevar said that "the American people understand that this war is about the financial interests of the dozen or so billionaires that seem to run this administration, and will not make anyone safer. When US companies are set to pocket upwards of $60 billion in windfall profits from this greed-driven disaster, Trump cannot look the truth in the face and lie to the American people who see it clearly written through the impact at the gas pump, in our travel plans, and the supplies of goods and merchandise millions rely on."
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Greenpeace Arctic Sunrise to Join Upcoming Global Sumud Flotilla Mission to Gaza
"We stand firmly against war crimes, deliberate starvation, ethnic cleansing, genocide, and ecocide," said one Greenpeace campaigner.
Apr 06, 2026
Greenpeace International said Monday that the MY Arctic Sunrise—one of its largest and most storied vessels—will be taking part in the upcoming Global Sumud Flotilla relaunch in order "to directly challenge Israel’s ongoing blockade of aid to Gaza."
The green group said the Arctic Sunrise, an icebreaker that's been part of Greenpeace's fleet since 1995, will be "sailing alongside more than 70 vessels and over 1,000 participants" in the second Global Sumud Flotilla, which is scheduled to set sail from Barcelona on April 12, with subsequent stops in Syracuse, Italy, and Lerapetra, Greece en route to Gaza.
Greenpeace said the Arctic Sunrise "is providing operational and technical support" for the flotilla.
“The devastation inflicted on Gaza has become a dangerous doctrine of impunity, now spreading to Lebanon through relentless destruction and deepening human suffering," Greenpeace Middle East and North Africa executive director Ghiwa Nakat said in a statement. "The Greenpeace ship is joining this people-led mission to demand safe, unhindered humanitarian access to Gaza and to challenge the illegal blockade that continues to devastate civilian life."
"We stand firmly against war crimes, deliberate starvation, ethnic cleansing, genocide, and ecocide," Nakat added. "This flotilla is a call to governments around the world to end their silence, protect humanitarian action, and act with urgency and principle to uphold international law, human dignity, and justice.”
Global Sumud Flotilla organizers said the spring 2026 mission will focus on specialized medical care, with more than 1,000 healthcare professionals aiming to deliver lifesaving medicines and equipment to Gaza, where 29 months of Israeli war and siege have left the Palestinian exclave's medical infrastructure in utter ruins.
Last year, dozens of boats carrying hundreds of activists from over 40 nations took part in the last Global Sumud Flotilla—sumud means “perseverance” in Arabic—as it attempted to break Israel’s naval blockade and deliver desperately needed humanitarian aid including food, medicines, and baby formula to starving Gazans amid a growing famine.
Israeli forces intercepted and seized the flotilla vessels in international waters in early October, arresting all aboard the boats and temporarily jailing them in Israel, where some including Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg said they were physically and psychologically abused by their captors.
The Freedom Flotilla Coalition has made numerous attempts to break Israel’s blockade by sea, all of which ended in more or less the same way. In 2010, Israeli forces raided one of the first convoys carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza by sea. The Israeli attackers killed nine volunteers aboard the MV Mavi Marmara, including Turkish-American teenager Furkan Doğan.
Numerous experts and the entire United Nations Security Council except the United States have called the starvation of Gaza deliberately created by Israel, whose prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, are wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes, including murder and forced starvation.
Israel—whose assault and siege of Gaza have left more than 250,000 Palestinians dead or wounded—is also facing a genocide case in the International Court of Justice filed by South Africa and formally supported by nearly 20 countries, including Spain, the mission's country of departure.
“At this time of escalating war, triggered by US and Israeli militaries and cascading into a cycle of destruction and pain across the Middle East, we are honored to answer the call to join the Sumud Flotilla," Greenpeace Spain executive director Eva Saldaña said Monday. "While world governments have lacked the courage and conviction to uphold international law and their obligation to prevent genocide in Gaza, the Sumud Flotilla has been a shining light of humanitarian solidarity and a symbol of hope in action.”
Global Sumud Flotilla leaders applauded Greenpeace's decision to participate in its spring mission.
“Greenpeace’s history of defending the seas, confronting injustice, and taking action in defense of life makes them a powerful addition to our 2026 spring mission," Global Sumud Flotilla Steering Committee member Susan Abdullah said Monday. "We sail together in the same direction, with a shared determination to help break Israel’s illegal siege of Gaza.”
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Trump Delays Threatened 'Energy Plant Destruction' in Iran Until April 6
The US president faces pressure to fully retract his "deeply irresponsible threats of acts that would unleash catastrophic harm on millions of civilians."
Mar 26, 2026
President Donald Trump on Thursday further delayed any potential US strikes on Iranian power plants to April 6, after nearly a week of critics calling him a "maniacal tyrant" for threatening to commit even more war crimes while attacking Iran with Israel.
"As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Trump initially said on the platform last Saturday night that "if Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!"
Jan Vande Putte, a senior nuclear and radiation protection expert with Greenpeace International, said in a Monday statement that "bombing civilian electricity infrastructure is illegal under international law. The electricity grid is essential for hospitals, clean water, desalination, and the operation of nuclear facilities. Cutting it off puts millions of lives at risk."
"A blackout could force the Bushehr nuclear facility into depending completely on backup diesel generators, causing a heightened risk of overheating, which can lead to a Fukushima-like disaster," Vande Putte warned, pointing to the 2011 accident in Japan. "If Trump carries through with this reckless threat to knock out critical infrastructure, it could lead to cascading failures, from blackouts to nuclear danger far beyond national borders, with the potential to escalate into a wider regional crisis."
Amid mounting outrage on Monday, Trump instructed the Pentagon to "postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions."
Critics continued to sound the alarm. In a Tuesday statement, Erika Guevara-Rosas, Amnesty International's senior director of research, advocacy, policy, and campaigns, called on Trump to retract his "dangerous" and "deeply irresponsible threats of acts that would unleash catastrophic harm on millions of civilians."
"By threatening such strikes, the USA is effectively indicating its willingness to plunge an entire country into darkness, and to potentially deprive its people of their human rights to life, water, food, healthcare, and adequate standard of living, and to subject them to severe pain and suffering," she warned.
"The decision to not proceed with such attacks must be based on the USA’s obligations under international humanitarian law to avoid civilian harm—not the outcome of political negotiations," the campaigner argued. "Going through with such attacks would cause devastating long-term consequences and severely undermine the international legal framework designed to protect civilians in wartime."
Guevara-Rosas also called on Iran to retract its threats to retaliate by striking power plants used by the US and Israel in Gulf states, as well as end all unlawful attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and against energy infrastructure and desalination facilities in the region.
"Intentionally attacking civilian infrastructure such as power plants is generally prohibited," she stressed. "Even in the limited cases that they qualify as military targets, a party still cannot attack power plants if this may cause disproportionate harm to civilians. Given that such power plants are essential for meeting the basic needs and livelihoods of tens of millions of civilians, attacking them would be disproportionate and thus unlawful under international humanitarian law, and could amount to a war crime."
As for the Trump administration's negotiations with Iran, the president's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, confirmed Thursday that Pakistani mediators sent the United States' 15-point framework to the Iranian government—which has not fallen over nearly a month of war, despite frequent assassinations.
Citing an Iranian senior political-security official, state-run Press TV reported Wednesday that Iran had rejected Trump's 15-point plan and had a list of five conditions for ending the conflict: a halt to assassinations, concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed, reparations for damages, an end to the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region, and recognition of Iran sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
As The Associated Press reported Thursday:
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview on state TV that his government has not engaged in talks to end the war and does not plan to. He said the US had tried to send messages to Iran through other nations, "but that is not a conversation nor a negotiation."
Egypt is also acting as a go-between, according to Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, who said Thursday that his country sees a desire from both sides "for calm, for the exploration of negotiations."
Throughout the week, fears of Trump pursuing a ground invasion of Iran have also mounted, intenstifying pressure on congressional Democrats to force another vote on a war powers resolution intended to end the president's unauthorized Operation Epic Fury before the upcoming two-week recess.
"This may be the last opportunity for Congress to slam on the brakes before Trump launches a disastrous ground invasion of Iran," Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, said on social media Thursday evening. "If Democratic leadership fails to force a vote and leaves town for two weeks, they will be complicit in any catastrophic escalation."
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