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Top 5 reasons Roy Moore Could Still Win, Despite Sexual Assault Allegations

The new charges will unseat him. Won't they?

Roy Moore, the Republicans candidate in Alabama to fill an empty seat in the U.S. Senate, is facing serious accusations. But that doesn't mean he won't win. (Photo: Screenshot/NBC News)

Roy Moore, the Republican candidate for senate in Alabama, was rocked by scandal this week, as a woman accused him of initiating sexual contact with her when she was only 14.

Moore was twice removed as chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court for refusing to follow the constitution, and he has pulled stunts such as showing a six-shooter at one of his rallies.

The new charges will unseat him, right?

Well, maybe and maybe not. There are some things that come into play beyond the candidate’s record of shenanigans. So far this past year, evangelical voters have shown that they will vote for a candidate known not to have a biblical lifestyle (Trump) as long as he stands for white supremacy. This outcome makes you a little worried that some large proportion of American white evangelicalism may be latently a form of white supremacy. In other words, values voters may not turn on the judge.

Here’s are some other reasons why:

1. Alabama’s voter ID law acts to suppress the votes of youth, elders and minorities. African-Americans in Alabama form 25% of the population, and they could ally with the white Democrats to forestall a Moore victory. But they are disproportionately disadvantaged by the ID laws.

2. Alabama is The least democratic state in the nation. It is 48th in accessibility of ballots.

3. Only 35% percent of Alabama voters see themselves as Democrats. If Republicans come out to vote, Judge Moore will prevail.

4. 86 percent of Alabama residents identify as Christian, and 49 percent are evangelical

5. 40% of white evangelical Christians supporting Moore say they do so out of party loyalty. While that is bad for Moore, that the party loyalty is holding is bad for his opponent.

We know things are bad. We know it's worth the fight.

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Juan Cole

Juan Cole

Juan Cole teaches Middle Eastern and South Asian history at the University of Michigan. His new book, The New Arabs: How the Millennial Generation Is Changing the Middle East (Simon and Schuster), will officially be published July 1st. He is also the author of Engaging the Muslim World and Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East (both Palgrave Macmillan). He has appeared widely on television, radio and on op-ed pages as a commentator on Middle East affairs, and has a regular column at Salon.com. He has written, edited, or translated 14 books and has authored 60 journal articles. His weblog on the contemporary Middle East is Informed Comment.

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