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Secretary of State John Kerry's latest foray into Middle East negotiations should be called the Einstein peace process. Doing the same thing over and over again and still expecting different results is the great scientist's definition of insanity. This time around, indications are that Kerry actually believes, all evidence to the contrary aside, that this latest iteration of the decades-old industry known as the "peace process" might really succeed.
Secretary of State John Kerry's latest foray into Middle East negotiations should be called the Einstein peace process. Doing the same thing over and over again and still expecting different results is the great scientist's definition of insanity. This time around, indications are that Kerry actually believes, all evidence to the contrary aside, that this latest iteration of the decades-old industry known as the "peace process" might really succeed. But unfortunately for Kerry, his political calculations are about to run aground on the unforgiving shoals of political reality.
Secretary Kerry announced proudly that this round of talks is different - based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. But he slid over the small U.S.- and Israeli-imposed "adjustment" to that plan, which stripped it of its potential value. The plan originally offered Arab states' normalization with Israel only after "full" withdrawal to the 1967 borders, and a just solution to the refugee problem based on UN resolution 194 guaranteeing their right of return. Kerry's new version ignores the refugees (at least so far) and adopts the U.S.-Israeli language on borders (always said as one word) of 1967-borders-with-swaps. Those land "swaps," of course, mean Israel gets to keep all its settlement cities, most of its illegal settlers, virtually all the Palestinian water sources, while the Palestinians will be offered some undeveloped desert land abutting Gaza, or perhaps a proposal to place Palestinian-majority cities inside Israel, such as Nazareth, under the jurisdiction of the to-be-created Palestinian "state." (There is likely to be no compromise even discussed on Gaza - Israel's siege will remain, strengthened by Egypt's new post-coup government sealing tunnels and tightening the closure of the Egypt-Gaza crossing at Rafah - and the Palestinian Authority diplomats are not likely to make Gaza a major part of their negotiating strategy.)
Palestinians, of course, will be expected to accept Israel's "reasonable" compromises as if both sides, occupied & occupier, have the same obligations under international law. (Oh right, international law doesn't have a role here.) The price, if Palestinians reject any of Israel's oh-so-reasonable proposals, will be U.S. and perhaps global opprobrium for blocking peace. Right now some developing countries (South Africa, Brazil) are hinting at somewhat more independent positions towards Israel-Palestine. The European Union's new restrictions on funding settlement entities, made public just before Kerry's announcement of the new talks and Israel's acceptance of them, is particularly important, reflecting the impact of even mild sanctions on Tel Aviv. But while the civil society movement for boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) continues to build, it remains unclear how the governments tentatively backing away from U.S. positions would respond to the collapse of the U.S.-controlled talks, especially if the U.S. claim is that the failure is the Palestinians' fault.
Israeli violations of international law, the Geneva Conventions, UN resolutions and more remain. The U.S. does not set an end to those violations as a goal of these peace talks - let alone as a precondition. If it did, Israel would have to end its occupation of the 1967 territories and recognize the Palestinians' right of return unilaterally - ending violations shouldn't require negotiations. That's why, ultimately, these talks will fail. Until negotiations are based not on U.S. support for Israeli power but on international law, human rights, and equality for all, the "peace process," including this latest Einstein Edition, will continue to fail.
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Secretary of State John Kerry's latest foray into Middle East negotiations should be called the Einstein peace process. Doing the same thing over and over again and still expecting different results is the great scientist's definition of insanity. This time around, indications are that Kerry actually believes, all evidence to the contrary aside, that this latest iteration of the decades-old industry known as the "peace process" might really succeed. But unfortunately for Kerry, his political calculations are about to run aground on the unforgiving shoals of political reality.
Secretary Kerry announced proudly that this round of talks is different - based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. But he slid over the small U.S.- and Israeli-imposed "adjustment" to that plan, which stripped it of its potential value. The plan originally offered Arab states' normalization with Israel only after "full" withdrawal to the 1967 borders, and a just solution to the refugee problem based on UN resolution 194 guaranteeing their right of return. Kerry's new version ignores the refugees (at least so far) and adopts the U.S.-Israeli language on borders (always said as one word) of 1967-borders-with-swaps. Those land "swaps," of course, mean Israel gets to keep all its settlement cities, most of its illegal settlers, virtually all the Palestinian water sources, while the Palestinians will be offered some undeveloped desert land abutting Gaza, or perhaps a proposal to place Palestinian-majority cities inside Israel, such as Nazareth, under the jurisdiction of the to-be-created Palestinian "state." (There is likely to be no compromise even discussed on Gaza - Israel's siege will remain, strengthened by Egypt's new post-coup government sealing tunnels and tightening the closure of the Egypt-Gaza crossing at Rafah - and the Palestinian Authority diplomats are not likely to make Gaza a major part of their negotiating strategy.)
Palestinians, of course, will be expected to accept Israel's "reasonable" compromises as if both sides, occupied & occupier, have the same obligations under international law. (Oh right, international law doesn't have a role here.) The price, if Palestinians reject any of Israel's oh-so-reasonable proposals, will be U.S. and perhaps global opprobrium for blocking peace. Right now some developing countries (South Africa, Brazil) are hinting at somewhat more independent positions towards Israel-Palestine. The European Union's new restrictions on funding settlement entities, made public just before Kerry's announcement of the new talks and Israel's acceptance of them, is particularly important, reflecting the impact of even mild sanctions on Tel Aviv. But while the civil society movement for boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) continues to build, it remains unclear how the governments tentatively backing away from U.S. positions would respond to the collapse of the U.S.-controlled talks, especially if the U.S. claim is that the failure is the Palestinians' fault.
Israeli violations of international law, the Geneva Conventions, UN resolutions and more remain. The U.S. does not set an end to those violations as a goal of these peace talks - let alone as a precondition. If it did, Israel would have to end its occupation of the 1967 territories and recognize the Palestinians' right of return unilaterally - ending violations shouldn't require negotiations. That's why, ultimately, these talks will fail. Until negotiations are based not on U.S. support for Israeli power but on international law, human rights, and equality for all, the "peace process," including this latest Einstein Edition, will continue to fail.
Secretary of State John Kerry's latest foray into Middle East negotiations should be called the Einstein peace process. Doing the same thing over and over again and still expecting different results is the great scientist's definition of insanity. This time around, indications are that Kerry actually believes, all evidence to the contrary aside, that this latest iteration of the decades-old industry known as the "peace process" might really succeed. But unfortunately for Kerry, his political calculations are about to run aground on the unforgiving shoals of political reality.
Secretary Kerry announced proudly that this round of talks is different - based on the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. But he slid over the small U.S.- and Israeli-imposed "adjustment" to that plan, which stripped it of its potential value. The plan originally offered Arab states' normalization with Israel only after "full" withdrawal to the 1967 borders, and a just solution to the refugee problem based on UN resolution 194 guaranteeing their right of return. Kerry's new version ignores the refugees (at least so far) and adopts the U.S.-Israeli language on borders (always said as one word) of 1967-borders-with-swaps. Those land "swaps," of course, mean Israel gets to keep all its settlement cities, most of its illegal settlers, virtually all the Palestinian water sources, while the Palestinians will be offered some undeveloped desert land abutting Gaza, or perhaps a proposal to place Palestinian-majority cities inside Israel, such as Nazareth, under the jurisdiction of the to-be-created Palestinian "state." (There is likely to be no compromise even discussed on Gaza - Israel's siege will remain, strengthened by Egypt's new post-coup government sealing tunnels and tightening the closure of the Egypt-Gaza crossing at Rafah - and the Palestinian Authority diplomats are not likely to make Gaza a major part of their negotiating strategy.)
Palestinians, of course, will be expected to accept Israel's "reasonable" compromises as if both sides, occupied & occupier, have the same obligations under international law. (Oh right, international law doesn't have a role here.) The price, if Palestinians reject any of Israel's oh-so-reasonable proposals, will be U.S. and perhaps global opprobrium for blocking peace. Right now some developing countries (South Africa, Brazil) are hinting at somewhat more independent positions towards Israel-Palestine. The European Union's new restrictions on funding settlement entities, made public just before Kerry's announcement of the new talks and Israel's acceptance of them, is particularly important, reflecting the impact of even mild sanctions on Tel Aviv. But while the civil society movement for boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) continues to build, it remains unclear how the governments tentatively backing away from U.S. positions would respond to the collapse of the U.S.-controlled talks, especially if the U.S. claim is that the failure is the Palestinians' fault.
Israeli violations of international law, the Geneva Conventions, UN resolutions and more remain. The U.S. does not set an end to those violations as a goal of these peace talks - let alone as a precondition. If it did, Israel would have to end its occupation of the 1967 territories and recognize the Palestinians' right of return unilaterally - ending violations shouldn't require negotiations. That's why, ultimately, these talks will fail. Until negotiations are based not on U.S. support for Israeli power but on international law, human rights, and equality for all, the "peace process," including this latest Einstein Edition, will continue to fail.