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In CIA jargon, "Aardwolf" is a label for a special genre of intelligence report from field stations abroad to headquarters in Washington. An Aardwolf conveys the Chief of Station's formal assessment regarding the direction events are taking in his or her country of assignment - and frequently the news is bad.
In CIA jargon, "Aardwolf" is a label for a special genre of intelligence report from field stations abroad to headquarters in Washington. An Aardwolf conveys the Chief of Station's formal assessment regarding the direction events are taking in his or her country of assignment - and frequently the news is bad.
An Aardwolf is relatively rare and is avidly read; it is candid -- and often unwelcome. (In the 2006 book, State of War, author James Risen describes two Aardwolfs sent to CIA headquarters in the latter half of 2003 by the station chief in Baghdad describing the deteriorating situation in Iraq -- and angering many of his bosses.)
So, let's assume there is an Iranian Chief of Station embedded in, say, Iran's UN representation in New York. It is quite likely that he or she would be tasked with crafting periodic Aardwolf-type assessments for senior officials of the Islamic Republic.
And in this time of heightened tensions with the United States and the West, Tehran presumably would be interested in a think piece assessing, based on the events of recent months, what the second half of 2012 might have in store on front-burner questions like the nuclear issue and the triangular Iran-U.S.-Israel relationship.
Putting oneself in others' shoes is always of value but often avoided by American officials and journalists. It is especially difficult in dealing with not-so-easy-for-westerners-to-understand countries like Iran. Faux history further complicates things, as do unconscious blinders that can affect even "old-paradigm" analysts who try to have no agenda other than the pursuit of objective truth.
Don't laugh. That U.S. intelligence analysts are still capable of honest, old-paradigm work can be seen in their continued resistance, so far with the full support of senior management, to strong political pressure to change their key estimate of late 2007 that the Iranians stopped working on a nuclear weapon during the fall of 2003.
Thus, let me try to put my imagination to work and see if any useful insights can be squeezed out of an attempt to "impersonate" an Iranian Chief of Station in the following notional "Aardwolf" to Tehran. Such a message might read something like this:
Nuclear Issue: What Are the U.S. & Israel Up To?
With half of 2012 behind us and the U.S. presidential election looming in just four months, I will try to be candid and blunt about what I see as the dangers facing the Islamic Republic in the coming months. Following are the key points of our mid-year assessment, more fully developed in the text that follows:
What Drives Israel?
I do not believe the Israelis see our nuclear program as an imminent threat, despite their having made the issue a cause celebre, the centerpiece of their foreign policy and a live wire in today's American politics. The question is why; at least five objectives can be identified:
The Americans are fond of saying, "After 9/11 everything changed." And so Americans took little notice when President George W. Bush, in a June 1, 2002, graduation speech at West Point, boldly asserted the right to launch the kind of preventive war banned at Nuremberg and in the U.N. Charter.
The West Point speech laid the groundwork for the attack on Iraq ten months later (and an aggressive war that was ultimately branded illegal by the UN Secretary General). But Bush's words at West Point indicated Washington's determination not to be bound by post-World War II treaties and other agreements.
Many in the United States and abroad gradually have grown desensitized to the principles of international law when they limit Washington's desire to attack another sovereign state under the guise of making Americans safer. After 9/11, starting the kind of "aggressive war" that was criminalized at Nuremberg in 1945 gained gradual acceptance.
And so, most Americans accept it as a given that it would be certainly okay if Israel and/or the U.S. attacked the Islamic Republic if we were to develop nuclear weapons, even though there is no international law or precedent available to justify attacking us.
Moreover, Article 2(4) of the UN Charter expressly prohibits the threat to use force as well as the actual use of force. But that is "old paradigm" thinking. When U.S. officials, from Obama on down, repeat the mantra that "everything is on the table," including the "military option," that is a violation of the UN Charter, yet no one here seems bothered by that fact.
Recall Obama's nonchalant response when asked in February if he thought Israel had decided to attack Iran. "I don't think Israel has made a decision," he said simply -- as though the decision were about something routine -- not about whether to launch the kind of "aggressive war" banned at Nuremberg.
Bottom line: International law is, as the Americans would say, "not a problem."
The statements of senior U.S. and Israeli officials are all over the map in addressing the nuclear "ambitions" of the Islamic Republic. For example, on Jan. 8, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta told a television audience: "Are they [the Iranians] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No, but we know that they're trying to develop a nuclear capability." ["Face the Nation", CBS, Jan. 8, 2012]
Here are his comments on another Sunday talk show on May 27:
"The fundamental premise is that neither the United States or the international community is going to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. We will do everything we can to prevent them from developing a weapon."
Israeli leadership statements, including those by Panetta's counterpart, Ehud Barak, are equally disingenuous, emphasizing that the U.S. and Israel are bound and determined to stop us from doing what both defense leaders have publicly acknowledged Iran is not doing. Small wonder that so many are confused.
Preventing Preventive War
The Persian Gulf would be an ideal place for Israel to mount a provocation trying to elicit retaliation from us, which could, in turn, lead to a full-scale Israeli attack on our nuclear-related sites.
Painfully aware of that possible scenario, then Joint Chiefs Chair, Admiral Mike Mullen noted at a July 2, 2008, press conference, that military-to-military dialogue could "add to a better understanding" between the U.S. and Iran. This might be an opportune time to resurrect that idea and formally propose such dialogue to the U.S.
The following two modest proposals could go a long way toward avoiding an armed confrontation -- whether accidental or provoked by those who may actually wish to precipitate hostilities and involve the U.S.
I believe it would be difficult for the Americans to oppose measures that make such good sense. Press reports show that top U.S. commanders in the Persian Gulf have favored such steps. And, as indicated above, Admiral Mullen appealed earlier for military-to-military dialogue.
In the present circumstances, it has become increasingly urgent to discuss seriously how the United States and Islamic Republic can avoid a conflict started by accident, miscalculation or provocation. Neither the U.S. nor Iran can afford to allow an avoidable incident at sea to spin out of control.
With a modicum of mutual trust, these common-sense actions might be able to win wide and prompt acceptance in the U.S. -- if only as a way of reining in "Enemy #1."
This is not for me to suggest, but I do so informally, partly because my Russian colleagues here at the UN have sought me out for discussion on recent developments on a number of occasions. And just this week Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, referring to Israeli calls for stronger action against Iran, had this to say:
"In order to settle this [nuclear] issue, it's necessary to refrain from constant threats of using force, abandon scenarios aimed against Iran, and stop dismissing the negotiations as a failure."
End of our imaginary Aardwolf to Tehran.
An earlier version of this article first appeared at Consortiumnews.
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In CIA jargon, "Aardwolf" is a label for a special genre of intelligence report from field stations abroad to headquarters in Washington. An Aardwolf conveys the Chief of Station's formal assessment regarding the direction events are taking in his or her country of assignment - and frequently the news is bad.
An Aardwolf is relatively rare and is avidly read; it is candid -- and often unwelcome. (In the 2006 book, State of War, author James Risen describes two Aardwolfs sent to CIA headquarters in the latter half of 2003 by the station chief in Baghdad describing the deteriorating situation in Iraq -- and angering many of his bosses.)
So, let's assume there is an Iranian Chief of Station embedded in, say, Iran's UN representation in New York. It is quite likely that he or she would be tasked with crafting periodic Aardwolf-type assessments for senior officials of the Islamic Republic.
And in this time of heightened tensions with the United States and the West, Tehran presumably would be interested in a think piece assessing, based on the events of recent months, what the second half of 2012 might have in store on front-burner questions like the nuclear issue and the triangular Iran-U.S.-Israel relationship.
Putting oneself in others' shoes is always of value but often avoided by American officials and journalists. It is especially difficult in dealing with not-so-easy-for-westerners-to-understand countries like Iran. Faux history further complicates things, as do unconscious blinders that can affect even "old-paradigm" analysts who try to have no agenda other than the pursuit of objective truth.
Don't laugh. That U.S. intelligence analysts are still capable of honest, old-paradigm work can be seen in their continued resistance, so far with the full support of senior management, to strong political pressure to change their key estimate of late 2007 that the Iranians stopped working on a nuclear weapon during the fall of 2003.
Thus, let me try to put my imagination to work and see if any useful insights can be squeezed out of an attempt to "impersonate" an Iranian Chief of Station in the following notional "Aardwolf" to Tehran. Such a message might read something like this:
Nuclear Issue: What Are the U.S. & Israel Up To?
With half of 2012 behind us and the U.S. presidential election looming in just four months, I will try to be candid and blunt about what I see as the dangers facing the Islamic Republic in the coming months. Following are the key points of our mid-year assessment, more fully developed in the text that follows:
What Drives Israel?
I do not believe the Israelis see our nuclear program as an imminent threat, despite their having made the issue a cause celebre, the centerpiece of their foreign policy and a live wire in today's American politics. The question is why; at least five objectives can be identified:
The Americans are fond of saying, "After 9/11 everything changed." And so Americans took little notice when President George W. Bush, in a June 1, 2002, graduation speech at West Point, boldly asserted the right to launch the kind of preventive war banned at Nuremberg and in the U.N. Charter.
The West Point speech laid the groundwork for the attack on Iraq ten months later (and an aggressive war that was ultimately branded illegal by the UN Secretary General). But Bush's words at West Point indicated Washington's determination not to be bound by post-World War II treaties and other agreements.
Many in the United States and abroad gradually have grown desensitized to the principles of international law when they limit Washington's desire to attack another sovereign state under the guise of making Americans safer. After 9/11, starting the kind of "aggressive war" that was criminalized at Nuremberg in 1945 gained gradual acceptance.
And so, most Americans accept it as a given that it would be certainly okay if Israel and/or the U.S. attacked the Islamic Republic if we were to develop nuclear weapons, even though there is no international law or precedent available to justify attacking us.
Moreover, Article 2(4) of the UN Charter expressly prohibits the threat to use force as well as the actual use of force. But that is "old paradigm" thinking. When U.S. officials, from Obama on down, repeat the mantra that "everything is on the table," including the "military option," that is a violation of the UN Charter, yet no one here seems bothered by that fact.
Recall Obama's nonchalant response when asked in February if he thought Israel had decided to attack Iran. "I don't think Israel has made a decision," he said simply -- as though the decision were about something routine -- not about whether to launch the kind of "aggressive war" banned at Nuremberg.
Bottom line: International law is, as the Americans would say, "not a problem."
The statements of senior U.S. and Israeli officials are all over the map in addressing the nuclear "ambitions" of the Islamic Republic. For example, on Jan. 8, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta told a television audience: "Are they [the Iranians] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No, but we know that they're trying to develop a nuclear capability." ["Face the Nation", CBS, Jan. 8, 2012]
Here are his comments on another Sunday talk show on May 27:
"The fundamental premise is that neither the United States or the international community is going to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. We will do everything we can to prevent them from developing a weapon."
Israeli leadership statements, including those by Panetta's counterpart, Ehud Barak, are equally disingenuous, emphasizing that the U.S. and Israel are bound and determined to stop us from doing what both defense leaders have publicly acknowledged Iran is not doing. Small wonder that so many are confused.
Preventing Preventive War
The Persian Gulf would be an ideal place for Israel to mount a provocation trying to elicit retaliation from us, which could, in turn, lead to a full-scale Israeli attack on our nuclear-related sites.
Painfully aware of that possible scenario, then Joint Chiefs Chair, Admiral Mike Mullen noted at a July 2, 2008, press conference, that military-to-military dialogue could "add to a better understanding" between the U.S. and Iran. This might be an opportune time to resurrect that idea and formally propose such dialogue to the U.S.
The following two modest proposals could go a long way toward avoiding an armed confrontation -- whether accidental or provoked by those who may actually wish to precipitate hostilities and involve the U.S.
I believe it would be difficult for the Americans to oppose measures that make such good sense. Press reports show that top U.S. commanders in the Persian Gulf have favored such steps. And, as indicated above, Admiral Mullen appealed earlier for military-to-military dialogue.
In the present circumstances, it has become increasingly urgent to discuss seriously how the United States and Islamic Republic can avoid a conflict started by accident, miscalculation or provocation. Neither the U.S. nor Iran can afford to allow an avoidable incident at sea to spin out of control.
With a modicum of mutual trust, these common-sense actions might be able to win wide and prompt acceptance in the U.S. -- if only as a way of reining in "Enemy #1."
This is not for me to suggest, but I do so informally, partly because my Russian colleagues here at the UN have sought me out for discussion on recent developments on a number of occasions. And just this week Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, referring to Israeli calls for stronger action against Iran, had this to say:
"In order to settle this [nuclear] issue, it's necessary to refrain from constant threats of using force, abandon scenarios aimed against Iran, and stop dismissing the negotiations as a failure."
End of our imaginary Aardwolf to Tehran.
An earlier version of this article first appeared at Consortiumnews.
In CIA jargon, "Aardwolf" is a label for a special genre of intelligence report from field stations abroad to headquarters in Washington. An Aardwolf conveys the Chief of Station's formal assessment regarding the direction events are taking in his or her country of assignment - and frequently the news is bad.
An Aardwolf is relatively rare and is avidly read; it is candid -- and often unwelcome. (In the 2006 book, State of War, author James Risen describes two Aardwolfs sent to CIA headquarters in the latter half of 2003 by the station chief in Baghdad describing the deteriorating situation in Iraq -- and angering many of his bosses.)
So, let's assume there is an Iranian Chief of Station embedded in, say, Iran's UN representation in New York. It is quite likely that he or she would be tasked with crafting periodic Aardwolf-type assessments for senior officials of the Islamic Republic.
And in this time of heightened tensions with the United States and the West, Tehran presumably would be interested in a think piece assessing, based on the events of recent months, what the second half of 2012 might have in store on front-burner questions like the nuclear issue and the triangular Iran-U.S.-Israel relationship.
Putting oneself in others' shoes is always of value but often avoided by American officials and journalists. It is especially difficult in dealing with not-so-easy-for-westerners-to-understand countries like Iran. Faux history further complicates things, as do unconscious blinders that can affect even "old-paradigm" analysts who try to have no agenda other than the pursuit of objective truth.
Don't laugh. That U.S. intelligence analysts are still capable of honest, old-paradigm work can be seen in their continued resistance, so far with the full support of senior management, to strong political pressure to change their key estimate of late 2007 that the Iranians stopped working on a nuclear weapon during the fall of 2003.
Thus, let me try to put my imagination to work and see if any useful insights can be squeezed out of an attempt to "impersonate" an Iranian Chief of Station in the following notional "Aardwolf" to Tehran. Such a message might read something like this:
Nuclear Issue: What Are the U.S. & Israel Up To?
With half of 2012 behind us and the U.S. presidential election looming in just four months, I will try to be candid and blunt about what I see as the dangers facing the Islamic Republic in the coming months. Following are the key points of our mid-year assessment, more fully developed in the text that follows:
What Drives Israel?
I do not believe the Israelis see our nuclear program as an imminent threat, despite their having made the issue a cause celebre, the centerpiece of their foreign policy and a live wire in today's American politics. The question is why; at least five objectives can be identified:
The Americans are fond of saying, "After 9/11 everything changed." And so Americans took little notice when President George W. Bush, in a June 1, 2002, graduation speech at West Point, boldly asserted the right to launch the kind of preventive war banned at Nuremberg and in the U.N. Charter.
The West Point speech laid the groundwork for the attack on Iraq ten months later (and an aggressive war that was ultimately branded illegal by the UN Secretary General). But Bush's words at West Point indicated Washington's determination not to be bound by post-World War II treaties and other agreements.
Many in the United States and abroad gradually have grown desensitized to the principles of international law when they limit Washington's desire to attack another sovereign state under the guise of making Americans safer. After 9/11, starting the kind of "aggressive war" that was criminalized at Nuremberg in 1945 gained gradual acceptance.
And so, most Americans accept it as a given that it would be certainly okay if Israel and/or the U.S. attacked the Islamic Republic if we were to develop nuclear weapons, even though there is no international law or precedent available to justify attacking us.
Moreover, Article 2(4) of the UN Charter expressly prohibits the threat to use force as well as the actual use of force. But that is "old paradigm" thinking. When U.S. officials, from Obama on down, repeat the mantra that "everything is on the table," including the "military option," that is a violation of the UN Charter, yet no one here seems bothered by that fact.
Recall Obama's nonchalant response when asked in February if he thought Israel had decided to attack Iran. "I don't think Israel has made a decision," he said simply -- as though the decision were about something routine -- not about whether to launch the kind of "aggressive war" banned at Nuremberg.
Bottom line: International law is, as the Americans would say, "not a problem."
The statements of senior U.S. and Israeli officials are all over the map in addressing the nuclear "ambitions" of the Islamic Republic. For example, on Jan. 8, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta told a television audience: "Are they [the Iranians] trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No, but we know that they're trying to develop a nuclear capability." ["Face the Nation", CBS, Jan. 8, 2012]
Here are his comments on another Sunday talk show on May 27:
"The fundamental premise is that neither the United States or the international community is going to allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. We will do everything we can to prevent them from developing a weapon."
Israeli leadership statements, including those by Panetta's counterpart, Ehud Barak, are equally disingenuous, emphasizing that the U.S. and Israel are bound and determined to stop us from doing what both defense leaders have publicly acknowledged Iran is not doing. Small wonder that so many are confused.
Preventing Preventive War
The Persian Gulf would be an ideal place for Israel to mount a provocation trying to elicit retaliation from us, which could, in turn, lead to a full-scale Israeli attack on our nuclear-related sites.
Painfully aware of that possible scenario, then Joint Chiefs Chair, Admiral Mike Mullen noted at a July 2, 2008, press conference, that military-to-military dialogue could "add to a better understanding" between the U.S. and Iran. This might be an opportune time to resurrect that idea and formally propose such dialogue to the U.S.
The following two modest proposals could go a long way toward avoiding an armed confrontation -- whether accidental or provoked by those who may actually wish to precipitate hostilities and involve the U.S.
I believe it would be difficult for the Americans to oppose measures that make such good sense. Press reports show that top U.S. commanders in the Persian Gulf have favored such steps. And, as indicated above, Admiral Mullen appealed earlier for military-to-military dialogue.
In the present circumstances, it has become increasingly urgent to discuss seriously how the United States and Islamic Republic can avoid a conflict started by accident, miscalculation or provocation. Neither the U.S. nor Iran can afford to allow an avoidable incident at sea to spin out of control.
With a modicum of mutual trust, these common-sense actions might be able to win wide and prompt acceptance in the U.S. -- if only as a way of reining in "Enemy #1."
This is not for me to suggest, but I do so informally, partly because my Russian colleagues here at the UN have sought me out for discussion on recent developments on a number of occasions. And just this week Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, referring to Israeli calls for stronger action against Iran, had this to say:
"In order to settle this [nuclear] issue, it's necessary to refrain from constant threats of using force, abandon scenarios aimed against Iran, and stop dismissing the negotiations as a failure."
End of our imaginary Aardwolf to Tehran.
An earlier version of this article first appeared at Consortiumnews.