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Dissenting Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote that "there is no constitutional justification" for the decision, and access to gender-affirming care "can be a question of life or death."
LGBTQ+ advocates decried Wednesday's U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding Tennessee's prohibition on gender-affirming medical treatments for minors as a dangerous green light for states to violate personal privacy and ban healthcare that many transgender people say saved their lives.
Writing for the 6-3 majority in U.S. v. Skrmetti, Chief Justice John Roberts stated that S.B. 1, Tennessee's 2023 ban on gender-affirming care for people under age 18, does not violate the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment. The majority concurred with a lower court's ruling that S.B. 1 is not subject to heightened scrutiny, a standard of judicial review also known as intermediate scrutiny used to determine a law's constitutionality, especially in cases involving classifications based on sex or gender.
"The Supreme Court is green-lighting the eradication of trans people from society."
"This case carries with it the weight of fierce scientific and policy debates about the safety, efficacy, and propriety of medical treatments in an evolving field," Roberts wrote. "The voices in these debates raise sincere concerns; the implications for all are profound. The equal protection clause does not resolve these disagreements. Nor does it afford us license to decide them as we see best."
"Our role is not 'to judge the wisdom, fairness, or logic' of the law before us... but only to ensure that it does not violate the equal protection guarantee of the 14th Amendment," the ruling adds. "Having concluded it does not, we leave questions regarding its policy to the people, their elected representatives, and the democratic process."
BREAKING: In a 6-3 Roberts decision, the Supreme Court has ruled that Tennessee's ban on gender affirming care is not subject to heightened scrutiny. This decision will strip millions of trans people off their constitutional rights.www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24p...
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— Alejandra Caraballo (@esqueer.net) June 18, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Roberts was joined in the majority by right-wing Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. Liberal Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented.
Sotomayor wrote in her dissent that "there is no constitutional justification" for the decision, which "does irrevocable damage to the equal protection clause and invites legislatures to engage in discrimination by hiding blatant sex classifications in plain sight. It also authorizes, without second thought, untold harm to transgender children and the parents and families who love them."
She continued:
Transgender adolescents' access to hormones and puberty blockers... is not a matter of mere cosmetic preference. To the contrary, access to care can be a question of life or death. Some transgender adolescents suffer from gender dysphoria, a medical condition characterized by clinically significant and persistent distress resulting from incongruence between a person's gender identity and sex identified at birth. If left untreated, gender dysphoria can lead to severe anxiety, depression, eating disorders, substance abuse, self-harm, and suicidality. Suicide, in particular, is a major concern for parents of transgender teenagers, as the lifetime prevalence of suicide attempts among transgender individuals may be as high as 40%. Tragically, studies suggest that as many as one-third of transgender high school students attempt suicide in any given year.
S.B. 1—introduced by Tennessee state Sen. Jack Johnson (R-23)—who was also behind the state's public drag ban—prohibits minors from undergoing hormone therapy or taking prescribed puberty blockers. Three transgender teens and their parents, as well as a Tennessee doctor who treats trans youth, challenged the law, claiming it violated the equal protection clause.
The plaintiffs were joined by the Biden administration along with the national and state ACLU, Lambda Legal, and the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in asking the Supreme Court to review the ban after the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld it in September 2023.
Responding to Wednesday's ruling, Allison Scott of the Campaign for Southern Equality—which manages the Trans Youth Emergency Project (TYEP)—said: "I am heartbroken today. No one should be forced to leave their home state to access healthcare—and it is outrageous to see the U.S. Supreme Court uphold these bans and continue to allow the government to interfere with the personal medical decisions of families."
Scott was alluding to the argument often made by proponents of bans on not only trans healthcare but also abortion and other reproductive rights that people seeking such care are free to go where it is legal—even as some states pass laws banning such travel.
There are approximately 300,000 people aged 13-17 and 1.3 million adults in the United States who identify as transgender, according to the Williams Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law, which notes that more than two dozen states have passed laws similar to S.B. 1.
(Image: Human Rights Campaign Foundation)
Transgender activist Alejandra Caraballo, a civil rights attorney and instructor at the Harvard Law School Cyberlaw Clinic, said on the social media site Bluesky, "I can't begin to tell you just how incredibly fucked trans people are here."
"This will pour gasoline on the Trump administration's attacks on trans people and they will get even harsher and more cruel," Caraballo added. "The Supreme Court is green-lighting the eradication of trans people from society."
Caraballo and others including the ACLU and trans rights activist Erin Reed noted that the decision is somewhat limited because it leaves previous rulings against anti-trans laws intact. However, Caraballo warned that "while the decision didn't explicitly say heightened scrutiny doesn't apply to all contexts involving trans people, it held that it was on the basis of medical diagnosis."
Therefore, "the government could just do whatever it wants to trans people based on gender dysphoria," she wrote. "For instance, they could strip everyone with gender dysphoria of security clearance in the government. Declare everyone with gender dysphoria a national security threat and purge them from the government entirely. The trans military ban will be upheld under this."
"Most importantly, states can now just ban gender-affirming care for everyone, including adults," Caraballo added. "We'll likely see that coming soon in addition to federal government efforts to eliminate access for all trans people."
"This will pour gasoline on the Trump administration's attacks on trans people."
U.S. President Donald Trump has renewed and expanded his first-term attacks on transgender people, including by issuing a day one executive order declaring that only two genders exist, another order advocating action against educators who "facilitate the social transition of a minor," and yet another directing the Department of Education—which he has vowed to abolish—to notify school districts that allowing transgender girls and women to compete on female teams violates Title IX, the federal law prohibiting discrimination on the basis of sex in education.
Trump also appointed a transphobe to head the Justice Department's civil rights office, ordered the removal transgender people and issues from federal agency websites, and reinstated his first-term ban on new military enlistment by trans people, who—according to the White House—cannot lead an "honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle."
"Every day I speak with families of transgender youth who are worried about the future," TYEP patient navigator Van Bailey said after Wednesday's ruling. "Many are panicking, unsure of where or when they'll get the medicine that their child needs to continue leading a healthy, happy life. These laws are cruelly thrusting families into impossible choices, and it is deeply unfair."
As we wait for legal guidance from our partners at @aclu.org and @lambdalegal.org, we want to share what we already know:The Supreme Court’s decision in U.S. v. Skrmetti is devastating, and we will not stop fighting.
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— Christopher Street Project (@christopherstreet.bsky.social) June 18, 2025 at 8:34 AM
ACLU LGBTQ & HIV Project co-director Chase Strangio—the first openly trans attorney to argue before the Supreme Court—said that "today's ruling is a devastating loss for transgender people, our families, and everyone who cares about the Constitution."
However, Strangio also noted that "the court left undisturbed Supreme Court and lower court precedent that other examples of discrimination against transgender people are unlawful."
"We are as determined as ever to fight for the dignity and equality of every transgender person and we will continue to do so with defiant strength, a restless resolve, and a lasting commitment to our families, our communities, and the freedom we all deserve," he added.
Jennifer Levi, senior director of transgender and queer rights at GLAD Law, said in a statement that "the court today failed to do its job."
"When the political system breaks down and legislatures bow to popular hostility, the judiciary must be the Constitution's backbone," Levi added. "Instead, it chose to look away, abandoning both vulnerable children and the parents who love them. No parent should be forced to watch their child suffer while proven medical care sits beyond their reach because of politics."
"When the political system breaks down and legislatures bow to popular hostility, the judiciary must be the Constitution's backbone."
National Center for LGBTQ Rights legal director Shannon Minter asserted: "The court's ruling abandons transgender youth and their families to political attacks. It ignored clear discrimination and disregarded its own legal precedent by letting lawmakers target young people for being transgender."
"Healthcare decisions belong with families, not politicians," Minter added. "This decision will cause real harm."
Sasha Buchert, counsel and director of the Nonbinary and Transgender Rights Project at Lambda Legal, called the ruling "heartbreaking" and contended it will make it "more difficult for transgender youth to escape the danger and trauma of being denied their ability to live and thrive."
"But we will continue to fight fiercely to protect them," Buchert added. "Make no mistake, gender-affirming care is often lifesaving care, and all major medical associations have determined it to be safe, appropriate, and effective. This is a sad day, and the implications will reverberate for years and across the country, but it does not shake our resolve to continue fighting."
The Supreme Court’s Skrmetti decision is a pivotal moment in our fight for LGBTQ+ equality. Here are three ways to TAKE ACTION:
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— Human Rights Campaign (@hrc.org) June 18, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Human Rights Campaign (HRC), Lambda Legal, and other advocacy organizations are planning to hold a "decision day" rally at noon Wednesday outside the Supreme Court in Washington, D.C.
HRC lamented that Skrmetti "sets a dangerous precedent and threatens access to care for trans people across the country."
"We are showing up loud and clear: We will not go back," HRC said. "We will not be erased."
Is the Court under Chief Justice Roberts more conservative than its predecessors?
Rulings issued by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) increasingly appear to be ideologically driven, often splitting along a clear conservative-liberal divide—whether 5–4 when there were five conservative justices, or 6–3 following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and her replacement by the more conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett, appointed by President Trump. The relatively recent Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health ruling in June 2022, where the conservative majority overturned Roe v. Wade by a 6-3 split, underscores this point.
This pattern of partisan alignment contributes to a broader fear, especially in the wake of President Trump’s reelection, that America’s bulwarks of democracy are buckling. From attacks on civil rights, universities, and the press, to a Justice Department willing to arrest sitting judges, Trump’s actions seem designed to destabilize core institutions. At the same time, his roughshod approach to “justice” is almost cynically expected to end up in the courts—particularly at SCOTUS—where many assume the ruling will go his way. The common narrative in progressive circles warns that the Court, stacked with Trump appointees, will support him in any unconstitutional attempt to hold power. While we have no quibble about their assessment that President Trump is a bad hombre who will do his best to do his worst, we are not convinced that SCOTUS will ever do his bidding. And though three of its justices were appointed by Trump and others often align ideologically, SCOTUS has shown itself, at times, to resist political pressure. It may still serve as a vital check on executive overreach. Whether it can fulfill that role is a question worth answering not just with alarm, but with close attention to facts and patterns. But first, some context and examples.
Recall that SCOTUS dismissed Texas v. Pennsylvania in December 2020 because Texas lacked standing in how Pennsylvania (but also other states) conducts its elections. The unsigned order stated: “Texas has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections.” No Justice supported Texas’s request for relief, though Justices Alito and Thomas would have allowed the complaint to be filed. SCOTUS rejected or refused to hear all other major legal challenges by Trump or his allies to the 2020 elections. This is despite the 6-3 conservative majority in the Court.
Similarly, there are other examples too, and not just those related to elections, that don’t fit the narrative that the three new Justices nominated by Trump will upend all the civil rights, due process, or other liberties we enjoy. Take Bostock v. Clayton County (2020), a landmark civil rights case where, in a 6-3 ruling, the Court ruled the Civil Rights Act protects employees against discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity. The majority opinion was written by Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, and while dissenting justices Alito, Thomas, and Kavanaugh are also conservatives, Justice Kavanaugh wrote a separate dissent arguing it should be Congress and not the courts that should add gender and sexual orientation to Title VII. He stated,
“Millions of gay and lesbian Americans have worked hard for many decades to achieve equal treatment in fact and law ... They have advanced powerful policy arguments and can take pride in today's result. Under the Constitution's separation of powers, however, I believe that it was Congress's role, not this Court's, to amend Title VII.”
A different kind of example is the Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency (2023). Here, the Court significantly limited EPA’s authority to protect certain wetlands under the Clean Water Act, which has serious environmental implications. Notably for our purposes, this conservative ruling was unanimous (9–0), though the justices differed in their reasoning.
So what should one make of these mixed examples? Is the Court under Chief Justice Roberts more conservative than its predecessors? Has it become more conservative since the appointment of the three justices by President Trump, and if so, in what type of cases? And what about ideological splits like 5-4 or 6-3, have they increased over time?
Data. Fortunately, the publicly available Supreme Court Database (SCD), hosted by Washington University in St. Louis, allows researchers to explore precisely these questions. The current version of the database includes all Supreme Court cases from World War II to July 1, 2024 (with an extended version covering decisions from four centuries ago) and classifies each ruling as liberal, conservative, or “unspecifiable”. For example, a decision is coded as liberal if it favors minorities in civil rights cases, supports the defendant in criminal cases, rules against the government in due process cases, or sides with labor over business in union-related disputes. Occasionally, this can give a counterintuitive classification; in Trump v United States (2024), the SCOTUS ruled 6-3 in favor of the individual and is thus coded as ‘liberal.’
Importantly, the SCD also records each justice’s vote, the breakdown of majority and minority opinions, and categorizes the main legal issue using a detailed taxonomy of 271 issue codes (e.g., habeas corpus, antitrust, abortion, torts, privacy) as well as 14 broader issue areas (e.g., Criminal Procedure, First Amendment, Civil Rights, Economic Activity, Due Process). Although there can be occasional misclassifications given the database’s scale and complexity, it is considered comprehensive and is widely used by legal scholars. The database includes 9,277 cases, with only 64 (0.69%) lacking an associated issue.
Robert’s Court. How do SCOTUS decisions under Chief Justice Roberts compare with those of his predecessors? Ignoring unspecifiable cases and coding liberal as 0 and conservative as 1, the average under Roberts is 0.532—meaning 53.2% of cases are conservative. This figure is similar to those from earlier courts: Vinson (49.7%), Berger (54.8%), and Rehnquist (55.2%), with none statistically different from Roberts’ 53.2%. (See Table 1 below.)
Only the Court of Warren, with an average of 32.8% (appointed by Eisenhower, who later called Warren “the biggest damn-fool mistake I ever made”), stands out as markedly liberal, as seen in landmark decisions such as Brown v. Board of Education (1954) which declared racial segregation in public schools unconstitutional, or Gideon v. Wainwright (1963) which guaranteed the right to a lawyer in criminal cases, or Miranda v. Arizona (1966) which required police to inform suspects of their rights (Miranda rights) or Loving v. Virginia (1967) which struck down laws banning interracial marriage. Overall, aside from Warren’s Court, the decisions do not appear radically more conservative.
Trump I’s Nominations. Has SCOTUS become more conservative since the nominations of Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett? To check this, we focused on cases decided after Roberts became Chief Justice on October 29, 2005. We partitioned these into two groups: cases decided before April 10, 2017 (the swearing-in date of Justice Gorsuch) and those decided after October 26, 2020 (the swearing-in date of Justice Barrett). We discarded cases between these two dates and those before Roberts took the bench. After removing cases where the issue was not specified or the decision wasn’t coded as liberal/conservative, our sample consisted of 1,128 cases—894 from before any of Trump’s nominations and 234 from afterward.
The good news is that his nominees have not overwhelmingly swung the Court towards conservatism. About 52.68% of decisions were conservative before the nominations, with a further 4.5% increase after—but this change is not statistically significant.
By Issue areas. Although there is no overall change, it still ‘feels’ as if something is amiss—perhaps because we value certain types of cases more highly. Since assigning weights to cases is complex, we next examine changes by issue area as defined in the data. We summarize below the baseline percentage of conservative decisions by issue and the percentage change after the three justices were sworn in.
Most changes are small and not statistically significant. However, two issue areas stand out. For “Due Process,” conservative decisions rose from 18.2% to 70% (an increase of 51.8% and statistically significant). For “Unions,” conservative decisions drop from 60% to 27.3% (a decrease of 32.7%, also statistically significant but not as strongly). These areas—among several others—often involve relatively few observations, which may affect statistical significance.
Liberal/Conservative Splits. We also examined the margin by which majorities prevail—whether decisions occur as 5-4 or 6-3 splits. First, as the proportion of votes in the majority, which range from 50% to 100%, has crept upward over time, consensus has slightly increased. This change is small yet statistically significant. The figure below shows the mean values for majority vote by year as well as the mean of (logit) fitted values.
Second, we assessed whether the share of cases decided by a 5-4 or 6-3 split has changed from before to after Trump’s nominations. This is tricky though, as a 5-4 or 6-3 split does not necessarily mean that the conservative Justices strongarmed their way, as splits can be with a liberal decision too. For example, in June 2012, SCOTUS ruled in a 5-4 split that the individual mandate under Obamacare was constitutional, where Chief Justice Roberts argued the mandate was essentially a tax, a power granted to Congress. Similarly, in Moyle v. United States (2024), three conservative justices — Roberts, Kavanaugh, and Barrett — joined with the liberal justices in a 6-3 decision upholding a lower court injunction preventing Idaho from enforcing its abortion ban in emergencies. But also recall that the 6-3 split in favor of President Trump in the criminal case of Trump v United States is coded as a liberal decision.
As Table 3 shows, about a quarter of cases during this period resulted in 5-4 or 6-3 splits, and such split decisions increased from 23.4% to 29.8%. But when we disaggregate the split cases by liberal or conservative decisions, there is a 12.5% statistically significant increase in split cases when the decision is conservative but not when it is liberal (we also tested this in a probability model for split decisions while controlling individual justice fixed effects with very similar results).
Final thoughts. One important caveat is that the data does not reveal which cases SCOTUS chooses to hear. Nonetheless, the impact of the three Trump nominations on the cases heard has been negligible regarding overall conservative rulings. This is not to say that the new Justices are not conservative or not likely to vote conservatively; rather, it indicates that the Court's overall posture has not radically shifted compared to recent periods. We may take some comfort in that, though we must remain vigilant.
Democracy and justice cannot be taken for granted. Ultimately, while conservative decisions today are more likely to be split along ideological lines, it remains an open question whether this is due to conservative justices imposing their views, liberal justices being more stubborn, or due to the nature of the cases heard by the Supreme Court.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday heard arguments over what could become the country's first taxpayer-funded religious charter school—and opponents of the St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School renewed their warnings about the proposal.
Faith leaders, parents, and educators celebrated last June, when the Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled against establishing St. Isidore. The test case for all such schools has now advanced to the country's highest court, which has a right-wing supermajority.
Reporting on over two hours of arguments Wednesday, Law Dork's Chris Geidner wrote that "the religious supremacy movement from the right's majority on the U.S. Supreme Court—with its outside helpers—appeared likely to... OK the first religious charter school in the country."
"Justices Clarence Thomas, Sam Alito, and Brett Kavanaugh appeared eager to do so, and Justice Neil Gorsuch's past writing in a related case signaled his alignment with the move, at least in principle," Geidner detailed. "Chief Justice John Roberts—the key vote then since Justice Amy Coney Barrett has recused herself from the case—appeared to be open to the idea as well."
Other legal reporters also concluded that Roberts appears to be the "key vote," given that the three liberals—Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson, Elena Kagan, and Sonia Sotomayor—all "expressed significant reservations" about allowing a religious charter school.
It appears very likely that the Supreme Court will force Oklahoma to approve and fund a Catholic charter school that reserves the right to indoctrinate students in Catholicism, force them to attend mass, and discriminate against non-Catholics. The three liberals sound increasingly exasperated.
— Mark Joseph Stern ( @mjsdc.bsky.social) April 30, 2025 at 11:52 AM
According to The Associated Press:
If Roberts sides with the liberals, the court would be tied 4-4, an outcome that would leave the state court decision in place, but would leave the issue unresolved nationally.
If he joins his conservative colleagues, on the other hand, the court could find that the taxpayer-funded school is in line with a string of high court decisions that have allowed public funds to flow to religious entities. Those rulings were based on a different part of the First Amendment that protects religious freedom.
Roberts wrote the last three of those decisions. He acknowledged at one point that the court had previously ruled that states "couldn't exclude religious participants," suggesting support for St. Isidore.
But he also said the state's involvement in this case is "much more comprehensive" than in the earlier ones, a point that could lead him in the other direction.
American Federation of Teachers president Randi Weingarten said in a statement after the arguments that "we respect religious education and the Founders' intention in separating church and state."
"Public schools, including public charter schools, are funded by taxpayer dollars because they are dedicated to helping all—not just some—children have a shot at success," the union leader said. "They are the bedrock of our democracy, and states have long worked to ensure that they remain secular, open, and accessible to all. They are not, and never have been, Sunday schools."
"The petitioners are seeking to change that," Weingarten warned. "Religious schools should be able to operate in the U.S., but they are not public schools, and they shouldn't be able to get the benefits and the funding yet ignore the obligations and responsibilities."
"Our hope is that the justices will uphold the Supreme Court of Oklahoma's decision, correctly siding with religious pluralism over sectarianism," she concluded. "A reversal would be a devastating blow to public education and the 90% of young people who rely on it. We must preserve and nurture the roots of our democracy, not tear up its very foundations."
The country's other leading teachers union also opposes the establishment of the Oklahoma school. National Education Association president Becky Pringle said in a statement this week that "every student—no matter where they live, what they look like, or their religion—deserves access to a fully funded neighborhood public school that gives them a sense of belonging and prepares them with the lessons and life skills they need."
"Allowing taxpayer dollars to fund religious charter schools would put both public education and religious freedom at risk," Pringle asserted, "opening the door to more privatization that undermines our public education system."
Proud to join @faithfulamerica.bsky.social outside of SCOTUS ahead of oral arguments in the OK religious charter school case, which challenges whether public funds can be used to support religious charter schools. As religious Americans, we say the separation of church and state is good for both!
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— Interfaith Alliance (@interfaithalliance.org) April 30, 2025 at 10:12 AM
Chris Yarrell, an attorney at the Center for Law and Education, similarly warned in a Common Dreams opinion piece earlier this month that "if the court sides with St. Isidore, the ripple effects could be seismic, triggering a wave of religious charter school applications and fundamentally altering the landscape of public education."
In addition to fighting for a taxpayer-funded religious school, Christian nationalists in Oklahoma want to put Bibles in public school classrooms—an effort the state Supreme Court has temporarily impeded.
The court last month blocked Oklahoma's superintendent of public instruction, Ryan Walters, and education department from spending taxpayer dollars on Bibles and Bible-infused instructional materials.
“This victory is an important step toward protecting the religious freedom of every student and parent in Oklahoma," legal groups supporting plaintiffs who challenged the policy
said at the time. "Walters has been abusing his power, and the court checked those abuses today. Our diverse coalition of families and clergy remains united against Walters' extremism and in favor of a core First Amendment principle: the separation of church and state."