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“Doubling insurance premiums,” the ad says, “is not what Americans need.”
As Americans increasingly struggle with healthcare inflation, a new ad campaign is targeting Republicans in Congress over their refusal to extend tax credits that have lowered insurance premiums for tens of millions of Americans, which has dragged the government shutdown toward its third week.
The ad campaign was launched by a collection of progressive advocacy groups—including Public Citizen, Indivisible, MoveOn, Fair Share America, People for the American Way, the American Federation of Teachers, SEIU, the National Education Association, and Working Families Power—and is scheduled to appear in each issue of Axios' "Hill Leaders" newsletter this week.
The newsletter that will carry the ad campaign is geared primarily towards those who work on Capitol Hill. Sponsors of the ad campaign hope that members of Congress and their staff will see it and that they will "stand firm in defense of healthcare even as the Trump administration launches cruel and wholly unnecessary firings above and beyond traditional shutdown furloughs."
"Republicans have shut down the government because they have no interest in keeping healthcare affordable for millions of Americans," the ads say. "Doubling insurance premiums is not what Americans need. Enough is enough! We must fight to save healthcare."
The government shut down at the beginning of October after Democrats refused to vote for a GOP funding bill that did not extend Biden-era tax credits for the more than 24 million Americans who purchase health insurance on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace.
If the credits are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, KFF estimates that the average recipient's insurance premiums will more than double, from $888 to $1,906 per year, which will result in about 4 million people losing their insurance due to unaffordability, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
This is on top of the roughly 10 million projected by the CBO to lose insurance coverage due to the GOP's massive cuts to Medicaid and other ACA marketplace spending in the Republican budget law.
"Across the country, Americans are urging their representatives to push back against Trump's destructive agenda and fight for a budget that protects access to healthcare and safeguards Congress' authority over federal spending," said Lisa Gilbert, co-president of Public Citizen.
The campaign comes as new data shows that the rate of healthcare inflation has already more than doubled in the nine months since US President Donald Trump took office, compared to the previous two years. Between January and August 2025, the Consumer Price Index for medical care has grown by 3.8%, compared to an increase of just 1.8% between January 2023 and January 2025.
In a September Fox News poll, 52% of voters said that Trump has made the economy worse, while just 30% said he's made it better. 81% of respondents said that healthcare costs were a "problem" for their families, with 51% calling them a "major problem."
As a new report from the Groundwork Collaborative points out, these price increases are having an impact on households before most of the changes from the OBBBA are set to go into effect.
In addition to skyrocketing insurance premiums, the bill's cuts to Medicaid have put hundreds of rural hospitals and nursing homes at risk of closure. The law also repeals a portion of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act that allowed Medicare to negotiate the costs of several widely used drugs, whose prices have climbed this year. It also introduced new restrictions preventing Medicare recipients from accessing additional financial aid for their premiums and co-pays, with $535 billion worth of cuts to the program scheduled to take effect in 10 years unless Congress intervenes.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration killed a rule that would have wiped $49 billion of medical debt from the credit reports of about 15 million people, which would have opened up their ability to obtain credit. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, overseen by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr., also terminated a program that offered free Covid-19 vaccinations to uninsured Americans and is reportedly seeking to eliminate them from the recommended vaccination schedule, which could prevent insurers from covering them.
Maurice Mitchell of Working Families Power, one of the ad's sponsors, said: "It's important that voters know that Republicans would rather shut down the government than lower healthcare costs for our families."
"Not a single Republican in leadership... has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!" wrote MAGA firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar said Tuesday that "reality" was finally starting to hit some Republicans in Congress about the catastrophic results of reopening the government without a plan to extend tax credits that help tens of millions of Americans afford healthcare.
The government shut down this past Wednesday after Democrats refused to vote for a GOP funding bill that did not extend Biden-era subsidies for the more than 24 million Americans who purchase health insurance on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace.
Republicans did not vote to extend the subsidies in July's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). And if they are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, KFF estimates that the average recipient's insurance premiums will more than double, from $888 to $1,906 per year, which will result in about 4 million people losing their insurance due to unaffordability, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
This is on top of the roughly 10 million expected to lose insurance coverage due to the GOP's massive cuts to Medicaid and other ACA marketplace spending in the Republican budget law.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have maintained that they would not negotiate on extending the subsidies unless Democrats vote to reopen the government, thereby sacrificing their main point of leverage.
But while many Republicans have hoped to divert attention from the wildly unpopular subsidy cuts to instead push the false narrative that Democrats are pushing for "free healthcare for illegal aliens," one of the most outspoken members of the MAGA coalition put her own party's leaders on blast Monday for their apparent willingness to let millions face higher healthcare costs.
In a blistering post on X, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said that while she was "not a fan" of the ACA and blamed it for "skyrocketing premiums," she was "going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children's insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hardworking people in my district."
"No, I'm not [toeing] the party line on this, or playing loyalty games," Greene continued. "I'm carving my own lane. And I'm absolutely disgusted that health insurance premiums will DOUBLE if the tax credits expire this year."
Greene lamented that "not a single Republican in leadership talked to us about this or has given us a plan to help Americans deal with their health insurance premiums DOUBLING!!!"
She then turned her attention to the tens of billions of dollars worth of military aid sent to Israel and Ukraine in recent years: "All our country does is fund foreign countries and foreign wars, and never does anything to help the American people!!!"
Johnson brushed off Greene's attack, noting that she "does not serve on the committees of jurisdiction to deal with those specialized issues, and she’s probably not read that in on some of that, because it’s still been sort of in their silos of the people who specialize in those issues."
But Casar described Greene's post as evidence that Republicans were beginning to recognize the hardship their policy may have wrought.
"Mike Johnson hasn't picked a fight with Democrats—he's picked a fight with reality," Casar said. "Here's reality breaking through."
While hardly toning down her conspiracy theorizing or her attacks on immigrants and transgender people, Greene has taken some notable stands against her party, as well as President Donald Trump, on some key issues in recent months. These have included opposing additional weapons aid for Israel's war in Gaza, which she has described as a "genocide," and the full release of the Epstein files, which Trump and other Republicans have seemed intent on burying.
But she may not be the only Republican for whom the reality of the GOP's healthcare cuts is "breaking through." On Monday, Trump told reporters gathered at the Oval Office: "We have a negotiation going on with the Democrats that could lead to good things... And I'm talking about good things with regard to healthcare."
Asked if he'd be willing to extend the expiring subsidies, Trump said: "If we made the right deal, I'd make a deal. Sure," adding that "we're talking to the Democrats."
The top House and Senate Democrats denied talking to Trump, and the president did not specify which party members he's allegedly talking to. But it nevertheless marked a notable shift in tone from the week before, when Trump responded to Democrats' healthcare demands with derisive, artificially generated sombrero memes and top congressional Republicans swore off any negotiations unless Democrats agreed to fund the government first.
Other Republicans have joined calls for the subsidies to be extended, including Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who told reporters: "You've got to do something to make sure the premiums don't essentially double, which they will in my state for private insurance. I mean, we just can't allow that to happen. That's a lot of Missourians who will not be able to afford healthcare."
Hawley notably raised similar concerns about the OBBBA's cuts to Medicaid earlier this year but ultimately voted for the legislation.
Nevertheless, the rhetorical change from some Republicans may have something to do with public opinion on the tax credits.
A poll released Friday by KFF found that 78% of Americans want Congress to extend the credits, compared to just 22% of Americans who want to let the credits expire. These majorities extend across the political spectrum, including 92% of Democrats, 82% of independents, and even 57% of Republicans who identify themselves as part of Trump's MAGA movement.
The same poll found that if the tax credits are not extended, about 4 in 10 adults would blame Trump, while another 4 in 10 would blame Republicans in Congress. Just 2 in 10 would blame Democrats.
Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said Tuesday that waiting to extend the subsidies until after the shutdown ends is not an option.
"Mike Johnson wants to kick the can down the road when it comes to addressing skyrocketing premiums—but this is a crisis right now," Jayapal said. "Now is the time to negotiate to lower costs—not after millions have been kicked off their healthcare."
Health insurance premiums are expected to rise significantly for approximately 22 million Americans after Republicans ended a tax credit for those enrolled in programs under the Affordable Care Act.
Democratic leaders said Thursday that they plan to hold up negotiations on a potential government shutdown unless Republicans agree to forfeit a policy change that is expected to dramatically raise health insurance premiums for millions of Americans.
Health insurance premiums are expected to rise significantly for approximately 22 million Americans enrolled in Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans after Republicans refused to extend enhanced tax credits when passing Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in July.
In remarks on Capitol Hill Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he and Democratic House Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) were in total agreement not to negotiate unless Republicans agree to extend the tax credits.
“On this issue, we’re totally united. The Republicans have to come to meet with us in a true bipartisan negotiation to satisfy the American people’s needs on healthcare, or they won't get our votes, plain and simple,” Schumer warned at a press conference.
"We will not support a partisan spending agreement that continues to rip away healthcare from the American people. Period. Full stop,” Jeffries said.
The enhanced tax credits, which were created in 2021 under the American Rescue Plan Act and later extended through the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, are credited with reducing the insurance premiums of millions of people who purchase health insurance through government exchanges.
The tax credits have reduced insurance premiums by 44% on average—over $700 per enrollee—and have contributed to the number of people purchasing insurance on the exchanges more than doubling to over 24 million in 2025.
According to a report released Wednesday by KFF:
Nine in 10 enrollees (92%) receive some amount of premium tax credit. If these enhanced tax credits expire at the end of 2025, out-of-pocket premiums would rise by over 75% on average for the vast majority of individuals and families buying coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces.
The increases come as insurance companies, citing "slumping share prices," per the Financial Times, are planning the largest hike to premiums in 15 years, including an 18% increase for those buying from ACA exchanges.
These increases will come on top of those already expected as a result of a Trump administration rule passed in June, which increased the maximum percentages of income and raw dollar amounts that insurance plans could charge patients out-of-pocket for care.
According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, these changes "will make coverage less affordable for millions of people." The CBPP estimates that "a family of four making $85,000 will have to pay an additional $197 in premiums for coverage in 2026" while a "family of two or more people on the same plan could face an additional $900 in medical bills if a family member is seriously ill or injured in 2026, and an individual enrolled in self-only coverage could face an additional $450 in medical bills."
In all, the Congressional Budget Office estimated in May that as a result of these mounting costs, over 5 million people will no longer be able to afford their health insurance plans.
"The death star of American healthcare, the insurance companies are preparing to blow up the lives of millions of middle-class families," warned journalist David Sirota in a podcast for The Lever.
Republicans in Congress are facing mounting pressure to extend the tax credits and stave off the premium hikes. Last week, 11 Republicans in Congress signed onto a bill that would extend the credits through 2026, allowing them to avoid the issue until after the midterm elections.
A survey conducted in July by two of Trump's most trusted pollsters, Tony Fabrizio and Bob Ward, found that for Republicans in the most competitive districts, "a 3-point deficit becomes a 15-point deficit" against the generic Democrat if they allow the healthcare premium tax credit to expire.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has stayed coy about whether he and the Republican caucus plan to support extending the credits.
"I'm not going to forecast that right now," Johnson told reporters earlier this week, while also saying, "There's a lot of opposition to it as well."
Democrats, meanwhile, have proposed a competing bill to make the subsidies permanent and are hoping to use this month's budget showdown to force Republicans to make concessions on the issue.
As David Dayen wrote Monday for the American Prospect, it sets up a challenging strategic and moral dilemma for Democrats:
On the one hand, Democrats fighting for healthcare benefits speaks to an issue where they have the highest level of support from the public. They would credibly be able to tell voters that they fought for lower costs during an affordability crisis and won, and that more of that will happen if they are given power in the midterms.
On the other hand, Republicans willingly drove the healthcare system toward the point of oblivion, and some may question why Democrats would offer a lifeline to bail them out. In this reading, relieving Republicans of the consequences of their health care plans would be harmful to Democratic midterm chances; Trump would take credit for keeping health care costs low.
What's clear, Dayen said, is that "unless action is taken, it will be an enormous example of Trump's failure to rein in the runaway cost of living."
Lisa Gilbert, co-president of Public Citizen, urged Democrats to stand firm as the fight over a potential government shutdown heats up.
"If Republicans refuse to negotiate and move away from their cost-increasing agenda, then it is Republicans who will be forcing a government-wide shutdown," Gilbert said. "There should be no deal without assurances that the budget will be honored and not impounded, and one that returns care to the American people.”