Trump’s Third Term: Distraction or Power Play?

“No person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice….”

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution restored the two-term tradition that President George Washington established. Except for Franklin D. Roosevelt during World War II, every president since Washington has followed it. President Donald Trump talks about breaking it.

Is he just waiving another shiny object at all of us? Or is he previewing his ultimate power play? With Trump, it’s always best to assume the worst.

Distraction From Disasters

Distraction is a classic Trump strategy. He draws attention away from his failures. And a little more than two months into his second term, there have already been plenty. Examples:

• He promised an economic boom.

But it’s been a bust: persistent inflation, plunging stock market, falling consumer confidence, global trade war, a looming “Trumpcession.”

• He promised a more efficient government.

But he’s gutting it: decimated worker morale, devastating spending cuts undermining public health and safety, allowing his family and friends to exploit personal conflicts of interest for private gain.

• He promised that “only the best people” would run his government.

But his advisers are a clown car of incompetent loyalists: national security team using a commercial app for top-secret discussions; vaccine-denier secretary of health and human services willfully ignorant of science gutting public health agencies; a hatchet-man terminating federal workers who safeguard America’s nuclear arsenal.

• He promised to improve America’s global stature.

But he destroyed our standing as a leader of the free world: undermining NATO; alienating America’s friends; taking Russia’s side in the brutal war that it launched against a democratic nation; inflicting massive economic pain on our closest allies; dismantling “soft power” diplomatic weapons—USAID and Voice of America—that won hearts and minds for decades.

Trump benefits from anything that moves the spotlight away from the ongoing disasters he is inflicting on America and the world.

Preserving His Power

Even so, Trump’s talk about a third term is more than a distraction.

As a lame duck president, his power has a limited shelf life. But holding out the possibility of remaining in office past 2028 stops the erosion of his influence. He can maintain control of his MAGA base, silence potential GOP critics, and retain his grip on congressional Republicans. Trump’s threat to remain in office is as important as his ability to execute it.

How Viable Is the Threat?

Some scholars argue that the 22nd Amendment barring a twice-elected president from being elected for a third term does not prevent him from serving another term if he reaches the office through a different path. They offer this hypothetical: In 2028 Trump runs for vice president with JD Vance at the top of the ticket. The ticket wins, President Vance resigns, and Trump becomes president again.

But the 12th Amendment provides that “no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of vice president of the United States.” Because Trump will have served two terms and be “constitutionally ineligible” to serve again, he would not be “eligible” to run for vice president either.

With his conservative majority, U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts rewrote the Constitution to place Trump above the law. Would the court stop Trump’s ultimate power grab or crown him king for life?

“Since you’re not electable as president, you’re not eligible to be president, and therefore you’re not eligible to be vice president,” said Yale University constitutional law professor Akhil Reed Amar.

Northeastern professor Jeremy Paul declared that using the vice presidency as a back door to a third term is “ridiculous.”

Likewise, according to Princeton professor Deborah Pearlstein, “Trump is constitutionally ineligible to serve a third term. End of story.”

Except Fairleigh Dickinson professor Bruce G. Peabody doesn’t think it’s the end of the story: “[T]he weight of legal, historical, and policy argument still falls on the side of permitting a twice-elected president to lead the executive branch once again.”

Peabody’s argument goes something like this: The Constitution elsewhere defines presidential “eligibility” as anyone who is a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old, and a U.S. resident for at least 14 years. If that definition merely establishes the minimum requirements for running, a twice-elected President Trump would still be “eligible” to seek the vice presidency.

Whatever ambiguity might exist surrounding a presidential third term, the obvious resolution is to adopt a new constitutional amendment repealing the 22nd Amendment. But that’s where the academic debate yields to the real world. A new amendment would never gain the requisite approval—two-thirds of both houses of Congress and two-thirds of the states.

Practical Problems

Ultimately, other real-world questions are even more important:

• If Vance ran as a presidential placeholder and won, would he then step aside?

• Will Trump’s incompetence continue until accumulating failures so erode his support as to render potential reelection a fantasy?

• Will Trump, who will be 82 years old when his current term expires, be capable of holding the presidency for another four years?

• If Trump tries to run in 2028, will the courts act quickly enough to stop his power grab?

With his conservative majority, U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts rewrote the Constitution to place Trump above the law. Would the court stop Trump’s ultimate power grab or crown him king for life?

Asking for forebears who died on battlefields to preserve my freedom.