Economists See Honduras' Progressive Tax Plan as Model for Other Countries

Eighty five progressive economists from around the world on Wednesday issued a statement in support of a tax reform being considered in Honduras, arguing that it could be a model for other Global South countries, as it would tighten tax law for rich people and corporations while preventing the country from becoming a tax haven.

The Tax Justice Law, first proposed by the administration of leftist President Xiomara Castro in March 2023, has remained stuck in parliament due to opposition from conservative, pro-business forces in Honduras, one of the poorest and most unequal countries in the Western Hemisphere.

The proposed reforms include closing corporate tax loopholes; taxing companies' global profits, not just national profits; ending bank secrecy; and holding beneficial owners liable for their taxes. The law wouldn't create new taxes or raise current rates.

The 85 economists, including Joseph Stiglitz, Gabriel Zucman, Jeffrey Sachs, Ann Pettifor, and Yanis Varoufakis, published the statement in Progressive International, a left-wing network establish in 2020. They cited estimates that the country had lost about $20 billion in tax revenues between 2010 and 2023 due to tax loopholes—more than the entire $16.6 billion debt that the country faces, at crippling interest rates.

Castro was elected in late 2021 and took office in January 2022 with an "inspiring agenda," but has faced opposition from conservative forces and the United States, according to Karen Spring, coordinator of the Honduras Solidarity Network.

Castro's husband Manuel Zelaya, also a leftist, led the country from 2006 until 2009 but was ousted in a coup, and the country descended into chaos in the 2010s, with drug gangs dominant and the government mired in corruption. The Intercept has reported that the U.S. may have encouraged the 2009 coup.

In 2022, Castro and the National Congress of Honduras reversed a conservative initiative to establish special economic zones, most notably one on the island of Roatán. However, Honduras Próspera, a U.S. company backed by billionaire libertarian Peter Thiel and others, has sued the government for $11 billion over the reversal, using the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) system that allows multinationals to sue nations that institute new laws that affect their profits and have the cases heard by private tribunals.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and other progressive lawmakers cited the Honduras Próspera case when pushing to abolish the ISDS system last year.

As with Castro's efforts on special economic zones, her tax reforms face hurdles.

"Big capital and the media ecosystem close to it have launched a smear campaign against the Tax Justice Law," Ojalá, a digital nonprofit magazine based in Mexico, reported last year.

Every major union organization in Honduras supports the proposed law, a union leader told Ojalá. And the proposal has now gained international attention. Last week, the South Centre, a research institute based in Geneva, issued a report in favor of the law, calling it "timely and welcome," and arguing that it's in keeping with the global minimum tax agreement made by 137 countries in 2021, whose implementation is ongoing.

Similarly, the group of economists on Wednesday wrote that Honduras was "on the path to being labeled a tax haven" but could "turn the page" with the passage of the Tax Justice Law, which would "establish a fairer and more robust system of taxation and incentives that will provide a sounder footing for Honduran development."

The economists concluded that "such a law has implications far beyond Honduras' borders, setting an example of how states can assert sovereignty through taking action against tax injustice individually and collectively."