Poll Shows Backing Israel Arms Embargo Would Help Harris in 3 Swing States

As the official death toll from Israel's U.S.-backed assault on the Gaza Strip topped 40,000 on Thursday, new polling showed that Democratic and Independent voters in three key swing states would be more willing to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in the November presidential election if she supported cutting off weapons to Israeli forces.

The poll was commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project, conducted by YouGov, and initially reported on by Zeteo. It involved hundreds of Democrats and Independents in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

From July 25 through August 9, pollsters asked voters if and how the Democratic nominee pledging "to withhold more weapons to Israel for committing human rights abuses against Palestinian civilians" would impact their vote. In Arizona, 35% said they would be more likely to vote for her, versus 5% who said they would be less likely. The figures were similar in Georgia (39% versus 5%) and Pennsylvania (34% versus 7%).

Even bigger shares of voters said they would be more likely to support her in November if President Joe Biden—who dropped out of the race and passed the torch to Harris last month—secured a permanent cease-fire in Gaza. In Arizona, 41% said they would be more likely to vote for her, versus 2% who said they would be less likely. In both Georgia and Pennsylvania, it was 44% versus 2%.

"If the Democrats want Vice President Harris to be the strongest nominee possible going into November, then they should be demanding that President Biden stop the flow of weapons to Israel and secure a permanent cease-fire immediately."

"Across all three states, 80% or more of Democrats and Independents support a permanent cease-fire and 60% or more disapprove of more weapons to Israel," the IMEU Policy Project said in a social media thread sharing more results from the poll. "About a quarter of those surveyed across these states say the violence in Gaza will sway how they vote."

The group added that "57% of Arizonans surveyed say U.S. support for Israel has been 'too much' versus just 2% who say it has not been enough. 48% of Pennsylvanians say it has been too much versus 3% who say not enough, and 50% of Georgians say it has been too much versus 2% who say it has not been enough."

IMEU Policy Project executive director Margaret DeReus said in a statement that "this polling clearly shows that if the Democrats want Vice President Harris to be the strongest nominee possible going into November, then they should be demanding that President Biden stop the flow of weapons to Israel and secure a permanent cease-fire immediately."

"Not only are these policies popular, but they actually move voters from the 'undecided' or 'not voting' column and into the Democrats' column in the states Democrats will need to win," DeReus highlighted.

Throughout the presidential primary process, when Biden was still at the top of the ticket, a nationwide movement emerged encouraging voters to select "uncommitted" or take similar action, depending on the options for each state's ballot.

Hundreds of thousands of primary voters—including over 100,000 in the battleground state Michigan—took the opportunity to show the Biden-Harris administration that they oppose U.S. support for Israel's assault on Gaza, which the International Court of Justice is deliberating as a possible case of genocide.

The U.S. administration is involved in ongoing cease-fire negotiations—which resumed in Qatar on Thursday—but also continues to arm Israeli forces, approving roughly $20 billion in additional U.S.-made weapons for the nation's military on Tuesday.

Last week, Layla Elabed and Abbas Alawieh, two Michigan voters who co-founded the Uncommitted National Movement, spoke with Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. The movement said that the Democratic nominee "shared her sympathies and expressed an openness to a meeting with Uncommitted leaders to discuss an arms embargo."

However, Phil Gordon, national security adviser to Harris, also said the vice president "has been very clear: she will always ensure Israel is able to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups. She does not support an arms embargo on Israel. She will continue to work to protect civilians in Gaza and to uphold international humanitarian law."

Noting Gordon's statement from last week, Norman Solomon of RootsAction wrote in a Thursday opinion piece for Common Dreams that "if maintained, that stance will continue to be a moral catastrophe—while increasing the chances that Harris will lose" to the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.

Solomon recalled when another wartime president bowed out of the next race and backed his vice president: In 1968, Hubert Humphrey became the nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, amid protests over the Vietnam War. He ultimately lost to Republican President Richard Nixon.

While Harris has already locked up the nomination via an online process, the Illinois city is set to host the DNC again next week. Anticipating thousands of protesters denouncing "U.S. complicity with the methodical killing of so many children, women, and other civilians in Gaza," Solomon urged Harris to learn from recent polling and the example of Humphrey.