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Bidwell Bar Bridge in Oroville, California is surrounded by flames during the Bear fire on September 9, 2020.
(Photo: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)
Study Shows Climate Crisis Driving Increase in California Summer Wildfire Damage
The researchers also found that California “can expect as much as a 50% increase in burned area from 2031 to 2050 relative to the past few decades.”
Jun 13, 2023
Nearly all the recent increase in land area engulfed by California summer wildfires is attributable to human-caused climate change, a study published Monday revealed.
The study—published in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), multiple University of California campuses, and three Spanish universities—quantified the influence of anthropogenic climate change on recent summer forest burned area in the nation’s most populous state.
“The 10 largest fires in California history have all occurred in the past two decades, and five of those have happened since 2020,” noted University of California, Irvine professor of civil and environmental engineering and study co-author Amir AghaKouchak.
“The results show the role of human-caused climate change in driving fire activity and highlight the need for protective adaptations against summer wildfire seasons.”
LLNL scientist and study co-author Don Lucas said that “we show that nearly all of the observed increase in burned area in California over the past half-century is attributable to human-caused climate change.”
“The results show the role of human-caused climate change in driving fire activity and highlight the need for protective adaptations against summer wildfire seasons,” Lucas added.
\u201cJust in: A new study by a LLNL scientist and collaborators shows that nearly all the recent increase in summer wildfires is attributable to human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change. Read more about this study \ud83d\udd25: https://t.co/VCBYyNm8BV\u201d— Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (@Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) 1686601280
According to the study’s abstract:
Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved... Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change... We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone.
“These findings strongly indicate that the observed increase in BA was primarily due to increased fuel aridity and not due to simultaneous variations in nonclimate factors such as human effects on ignitions, fire suppression, or by altering land cover,” the study states.
In 2020, the CEO of PG&E, California’s largest utility, pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter in connection with the 2018 Camp fire, which was caused by the company’s faulty equipment and incinerated the town of Paradise. The utility has also been implicated in numerous other California wildfires.
The study’s researchers used climate models to forecast BA spread in California’s future.
“Our paper makes it clear that the problem is ours to fix and that we can take steps to help solve it.”
“We found that we can expect as much as a 50% increase in burned area from 2031 to 2050 relative to the past few decades,” AghaKouchak said.
“Our paper makes it clear that the problem is ours to fix and that we can take steps to help solve it,” he added. “By acting now to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions and pursue more sustainable transportation, energy production, and agricultural practices, we can reduce the adverse effects of global climate change.”
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californiaforestslawrence livermore national laboratoryparadise californiapg&euniversity of californiacalifornia wildfires
Nearly all the recent increase in land area engulfed by California summer wildfires is attributable to human-caused climate change, a study published Monday revealed.
The study—published in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), multiple University of California campuses, and three Spanish universities—quantified the influence of anthropogenic climate change on recent summer forest burned area in the nation’s most populous state.
“The 10 largest fires in California history have all occurred in the past two decades, and five of those have happened since 2020,” noted University of California, Irvine professor of civil and environmental engineering and study co-author Amir AghaKouchak.
“The results show the role of human-caused climate change in driving fire activity and highlight the need for protective adaptations against summer wildfire seasons.”
LLNL scientist and study co-author Don Lucas said that “we show that nearly all of the observed increase in burned area in California over the past half-century is attributable to human-caused climate change.”
“The results show the role of human-caused climate change in driving fire activity and highlight the need for protective adaptations against summer wildfire seasons,” Lucas added.
\u201cJust in: A new study by a LLNL scientist and collaborators shows that nearly all the recent increase in summer wildfires is attributable to human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change. Read more about this study \ud83d\udd25: https://t.co/VCBYyNm8BV\u201d— Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (@Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) 1686601280
According to the study’s abstract:
Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved... Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change... We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone.
“These findings strongly indicate that the observed increase in BA was primarily due to increased fuel aridity and not due to simultaneous variations in nonclimate factors such as human effects on ignitions, fire suppression, or by altering land cover,” the study states.
In 2020, the CEO of PG&E, California’s largest utility, pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter in connection with the 2018 Camp fire, which was caused by the company’s faulty equipment and incinerated the town of Paradise. The utility has also been implicated in numerous other California wildfires.
The study’s researchers used climate models to forecast BA spread in California’s future.
“Our paper makes it clear that the problem is ours to fix and that we can take steps to help solve it.”
“We found that we can expect as much as a 50% increase in burned area from 2031 to 2050 relative to the past few decades,” AghaKouchak said.
“Our paper makes it clear that the problem is ours to fix and that we can take steps to help solve it,” he added. “By acting now to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions and pursue more sustainable transportation, energy production, and agricultural practices, we can reduce the adverse effects of global climate change.”
From Your Site Articles
- “It’ll Start Getting Cooler, You Just Watch”: Trump Spits Climate Denialism Right in California’s Face ›
- Demands for ‘Real Climate Action’ as Death Toll From California Wildfires Hits Grim Record ›
- ‘It’s Apocalyptic’: Wildfires Engulf Maui, Killing At Least 6 ›
Related Articles Around the Web
Nearly all the recent increase in land area engulfed by California summer wildfires is attributable to human-caused climate change, a study published Monday revealed.
The study—published in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), multiple University of California campuses, and three Spanish universities—quantified the influence of anthropogenic climate change on recent summer forest burned area in the nation’s most populous state.
“The 10 largest fires in California history have all occurred in the past two decades, and five of those have happened since 2020,” noted University of California, Irvine professor of civil and environmental engineering and study co-author Amir AghaKouchak.
“The results show the role of human-caused climate change in driving fire activity and highlight the need for protective adaptations against summer wildfire seasons.”
LLNL scientist and study co-author Don Lucas said that “we show that nearly all of the observed increase in burned area in California over the past half-century is attributable to human-caused climate change.”
“The results show the role of human-caused climate change in driving fire activity and highlight the need for protective adaptations against summer wildfire seasons,” Lucas added.
\u201cJust in: A new study by a LLNL scientist and collaborators shows that nearly all the recent increase in summer wildfires is attributable to human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change. Read more about this study \ud83d\udd25: https://t.co/VCBYyNm8BV\u201d— Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (@Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) 1686601280
According to the study’s abstract:
Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved... Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change... We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone.
“These findings strongly indicate that the observed increase in BA was primarily due to increased fuel aridity and not due to simultaneous variations in nonclimate factors such as human effects on ignitions, fire suppression, or by altering land cover,” the study states.
In 2020, the CEO of PG&E, California’s largest utility, pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter in connection with the 2018 Camp fire, which was caused by the company’s faulty equipment and incinerated the town of Paradise. The utility has also been implicated in numerous other California wildfires.
The study’s researchers used climate models to forecast BA spread in California’s future.
“Our paper makes it clear that the problem is ours to fix and that we can take steps to help solve it.”
“We found that we can expect as much as a 50% increase in burned area from 2031 to 2050 relative to the past few decades,” AghaKouchak said.
“Our paper makes it clear that the problem is ours to fix and that we can take steps to help solve it,” he added. “By acting now to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions and pursue more sustainable transportation, energy production, and agricultural practices, we can reduce the adverse effects of global climate change.”
From Your Site Articles
- “It’ll Start Getting Cooler, You Just Watch”: Trump Spits Climate Denialism Right in California’s Face ›
- Demands for ‘Real Climate Action’ as Death Toll From California Wildfires Hits Grim Record ›
- ‘It’s Apocalyptic’: Wildfires Engulf Maui, Killing At Least 6 ›
Related Articles Around the Web
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LATEST NEWS
Khanna Moves to Subpoena FCC Chair Carr Over Effort to ‘Shred the First Amendment’
“We will not be intimidated and we will defend the First Amendment,” said Rep. Robert Garcia.
Sep 18, 2025
Democratic lawmakers are vowing to investigate the Trump administration's pressure campaign that may have led to ABC deciding to indefinitely suspend late-night talk show host Jimmy Kimmel.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) announced on Thursday that he filed a motion to subpoena Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr one day after he publicly warned ABC of negative consequences if the network kept Kimmel on the air.
"Enough of Congress sleepwalking while [President Donald] Trump and [Vice President JD] Vance shred the First Amendment and Constitution," Khanna declared. "It is time for Congress to stand up for Article I."
Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, also said on Thursday that he was opening an investigation into the potential financial aspects of Carr's pressure campaign on ABC, including the involvement of Sinclair Broadcasting Group, which is the network's largest affiliate and is currently involved in merger talks that will need FCC approval.
"The Oversight Committee is launching an investigation into ABC, Sinclair, and the FCC," he said. "We will not be intimidated and we will defend the First Amendment."
Progressive politicians weren't the only ones launching an investigation into the Kimmel controversy, as legal organization Democracy Forward announced that it's filed a a Freedom of Information Act request for records after January 20, 2025 related to any FCC efforts “to use the agency’s licensing and enforcement powers to police and limit speech and influence what the public can watch and hear.”
Vowing to Fight Back, Senate Dems Decry Trump Attack on Liberal-Left Groups
“All of this ties back to money and people enriching themselves, and bending the knee to Donald Trump to make it happen,” said Rep. Maxwell Frost.
Sep 18, 2025
Democratic lawmakers on Thursday vowed to fight back against US President Donald Trump's efforts to attack and dismantle liberal and progressive organizations.
Led by Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), the Democrats introduced the No Political Enemies Act aimed at protecting organizations' free speech rights from retaliation from the federal government.
During his speech touting the new legislation, Murphy recounted recent actions by Trump and his administration, including the president's threats to "arrest members of the Soros family simply for funding groups that oppose his agenda," as well as Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr's pressure campaign to get ABC to fire late-night comedian Jimmy Kimmel.
Murphy then said that the No Political Enemies Act was necessary because "Donald Trump is right now instructing his Department of Justice to go on the hunt for his political enemies" for challenging him.
"Trump is making it 100% clear that he is going to ramp up his efforts to use the power of the federal government to punish his critics," he said. "This is legislation that makes sure that the law is on the side of free speech and the right to dissent."
The proposed law would give political organizations and individuals new tools to combat political harassment from the federal government, and would allow them to both recover attorney fees and more easily file lawsuits against federal officials who abuse their authority for political purposes.
Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), who also expressed support for the legislation, put the stakes facing Americans in stark terms.
"We are in the biggest free speech crisis this country has faced since the McCarthy era," he said. "The murder of Charlie Kirk was a horrific crime, and it's clear that Trump wants to hijack that horrific crime to silence anyone who disagrees with the president about any issue."
Casar, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, also took a shot at major corporations who have been caving to the president's demands in recent months.
"As we saw last night, far too many billionaires and corporate-owned media companies are bending the knee: Disney and ABC, Paramount and CBS, the Washington Post editorial board, Facebook," he said. "Let's be clear, the ultrawealthy men who own these companies are making a choice. David Ellison, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bob Iger—these men are enriching themselves, auctioning off the United State's First Amendment to a wannabe dictator and tyrant."
Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) pointed out that the FCC's pressure campaign on ABC to fire Kimmel is particularly nefarious given that Sinclair Broadcasting Group, which is the network's largest affiliate, is currently involved in merger talks that will need FCC approval.
"All of this ties back to money and people enriching themselves, and bending the knee to Donald Trump to make it happen," he said.
The Democrats' proposed legislation comes after Trump announced late Wednesday night that he planned to designate “antifa,” a movement of autonomous individuals and loosely affiliated groups who oppose fascism, as a “major terrorist organization."
It also comes comes days after Trump adviser Stephen Miller began pushing a plan to "dismantle" the organized left using the power of the federal government.
During a recent appearance on Fox News, Miller described the entire left as a "domestic terrorism movement in this country," and vowed "to dismantle and take on the radical left organizations in this country that are fomenting violence."
Ed Dept. Will Give Grants to Schools That Adopt ‘Patriotic’ Civics Curriculum From MAGA Orgs
One civics education advocate said the program, which will push schools to teach history content written by PragerU, Hillsdale College, and Turning Point USA, “smacks of authoritarianism.”
Sep 18, 2025
President Donald Trump's Department of Education has announced that it will partner with right-wing think tanks and organizations to develop a new curriculum for “patriotic education” in American classrooms.
Earlier this week, the Trump administration redirected $137 million initially meant for programs aimed at minority students toward what it described as "American history and civics education."
Education Secretary Linda McMahon announced Wednesday that the money will be directed toward discretionary grants aimed at K-12 schools that adopt a new curriculum being drawn up by the 250 Civics Education Coalition—a consortium of more than 40 right-wing groups that launched on same day. The goal, McMahon said, was to advance education that "emphasizes a unifying and uplifting portrayal of the nation's founding ideals" in advance of the nation's 250th anniversary in 2026.
It is not Trump's first crack at instilling the nation's youth with a "patriotic education." In the waning days of his first term in office, Trump unveiled the 1776 Report, which, education columnist Jennifer Berkshire recently noted in The Baffler, "was widely panned by actual historians for its worshipful treatment of the Founding Fathers, its downplaying of slavery, and its portrayal of a century-old 'administrative state' controlled by leftist radicals."
While little has been publicized yet about what McMahon's new endeavor will look like, it is known who will be crafting it. The initiative is being led by the America First Policy Institute, a MAGA-aligned think tank that has been responsible for staffing Trump's second administration and has received over $1 million from his political action committee, the Save America PAC. Until 2023, McMahon herself served on the board of AFPI.
In 2022, the group presented a piece of model legislation for a "Civics Course Act" to be introduced in states. It included requirements for students to spend ample time studying the nation's founding documents and figures while banning the teaching of what it called the "defamatory history of America’s founding," which suggests that slavery or inequality are in any way inherent to the nation's institutions.
It also banned the concepts of "systemic racism" and "gender fluidity" and forbade teachers from giving students course credit for engaging with "social or public policy advocacy."
Also included in the coalition is Hillsdale College, a private Christian liberal arts school in Michigan that has proposed its own K-12 curriculum, which Vanity Fair notes "has been criticized for revisionist history, including whitewashed accounts of US slavery and depictions of Jamestown as a failed communist colony."
Another participant is PragerU, the overtly partisan and often factually loose YouTube channel that has been tasked with creating children's educational content in nearly a dozen red states.
The group has produced content venerating figures notorious for practicing slavery, like colonist Christopher Columbus and Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee. Its videos have argued, among other things, that climate change is a myth, that European fascism was a "far-left" ideology, and that Israel has "the world's most moral army."
The pro-Trump youth group Turning Point USA will also be involved in crafting the curriculum. Its longtime leader, Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated in Utah last week, went on a crusade last year to, in his words, "tell the truth" about Martin Luther King Jr., whom he described as "an awful person," while claiming his signature achievement, the 1964 Civil Rights Act, was a "huge mistake."
An offshoot of Kirk's group, Turning Point Education, said Kirk's assassination has increased its resolve to promote a "God-centered, virtuous education" in US public schools.
The 250 Civics Education Coalition has not yet published a curriculum. But according to the Department of Education, it will be rolling out "a robust programming agenda" over the next 12 months.
During Trump's second term, he has undertaken an effort to purge federal museums and national parks of what one executive order called "improper ideology," which has resulted in the erasure of exhibits and monuments to Black and Native American history. Last month, he lamented that the Smithsonian Museum focuses too much on "how bad slavery was" and ordered a review of the museum's content.
Federal websites, meanwhile, have systematically eliminated many pages that acknowledged the accomplishments of nonwhite historical figures or important events in women's and LGBTQ+ history.
Critics in the education world view Trump's effort to use grants to induce them to adopt his preferred curriculum as an illegal effort to propagandize children.
"The law is clear," said education historian Diane Ravitch in a blog post. "Federal officials are prohibited from seeking to influence or direct curriculum in any way."
Since 1970, the federal government has been barred by law from "any direction, supervision, or control over the curriculum" of public schools.
"Civic education is and must be non-partisan," said Ted McConnell, the executive director of the Campaign for the Civic Mission of Schools. "While the funding is long sought, this is the wrong approach and smacks of authoritarianism."
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