Fires, floods, locusts and droughts - a
combination of crises that could mean higher food prices around the
world over the next 12 months.
The US agriculture department will release a report on Thursday
assessing world grain supplies. Many analysts expect it will forecast a
two-year low for wheat inventories - an estimate that would likely send
wheat prices, which have climbed steadily all summer, moving even
Russia, the world's third-largest wheat exporter,
imposed a four-month ban on grain exports last week because of drought.
That decision will pull millions of tonnes of wheat out of world
markets: Russia had originally planned to increase its exports this year, to more than 40 million tonnes.
The World Bank has
urged other nations not to follow suit, fearing a supply crunch like the
one that drove 2008 prices to twice their current levels and prompted
food riots in Africa and Asia.
At least one country is not listening,
though. Severe winter frosts and a summer drought have damaged the crop
in Ukraine, the world's sixth-largest exporter, and Kiev is expected to
impose its own export ban later this month.
In Australia, the government is forecasting a 22.1mn tonne crop,
slightly larger than last year's. But there are persistent fears that
locusts could destroy two or three million tonnes; and western Australia
is suffering from a drought, threatening much of the region's crop.
Other countries have had smaller-scale problems: In northern Afghanistan, for example, a plague of locusts has already destroyed much of the wheat crop in Samangan province.
Argentina is one of the few global bright spots. The US agriculture
department predicted on Tuesday that Argentina would export 8 million
tonnes of wheat over the next year, a one-million-tonne increase over
Global price fears
The supply fears have pushed up prices for wheat: Some wheat options
on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have already increased by more than
50 per cent since May.
Rising prices are an immediate problem in Pakistan, where weeks of flooding have destroyed millions of acres of farmland, much of it in the highly fertile Punjab province.
A Pakistani farmers association estimated that flooding has wiped out 500,000 tonnes of wheat,
roughly 2 per cent of Pakistan's annual harvest. The food ministry
places the figure slightly higher, at 600,000 tonnes. Sugar and cotton
crops will also suffer.
Food prices normally spike in Pakistan during Ramadan, and the
flooding has only added to the misery. Wheat flour is being sold for 560
rupees per one-kilo bag, well above the official price of 400 rupees.
Wheat is not the only crop affected: Sugar is selling for 70 rupees per kilo, according to Dawn,
up from 47 rupees during last year's Ramadan. A kilogram of tomatoes,
normally 40 to 60 rupees per kilo, has doubled to 120 rupees, according to the Express Tribune.
The increases are only expected to worsen as vendors begin to exhaust their stockpiles.
Some goods are already unavailable: The Swat valley's peach and
apricot harvests cannot be shipped to market because flooding has washed
away roads and bridges.
Other countries fear longer-term implications from the global shortages.
The Russian export ban has prompted some concern in Egypt, which
depends heavily on imported wheat to feed its 80 million people. The
Egyptian government has asked the Russian government to honour its
It says it has enough wheat stockpiled to provide subsidised bread
for the next four months, but it is also looking for other countries -
like the US and France - to increase their exports.
In Australia, meanwhile, analysts have warned that fires in Russia
and floods in Canada will make everything from coffee to eggs to beer more expensive.
Most commodity analysts say a return to the 2007-08 crisis is unlikely,
because stockpiles - particularly of wheat - are at a much higher
level. Still, food markets tend to be irrational, and small-scale
disruptions in supply can have a large impact on prices. The
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Food and
Agriculture Organisation warned in a June report that the food markets
will remain subject to sharp fluctuations.
"If history is any guide, further episodes of strong price
fluctuations in agricultural product prices cannot be ruled out nor can
future short-lived crises," they wrote.