Weaning the World Off Oil

Ten days ago I received a letter from Cairn Energy, the British company at the centre of Greenpeace's current direct action
in the Arctic. I was told that its drilling operation is "relatively
straightforward" and that the blue whales, polar bears and kittiwakes in
Baffin Bay are safe, because, according to Cairn, "our programme is
conventional".

This industry has lost its grip on reality. Anyone
who has seen the remarkable images coming from the Arctic over the last
few days will know how unusual, dangerous and extreme this business has
become. While icebergs the size of football stadiums are towed out of a
rig's path, ships equipped with high-pressure water cannons blast
smaller chunks into submission. And all the while the clock is ticking.
As the winter freeze edges nearer, this frantic exploration company
rushes to finish the job before sheet-ice cuts off the region
completely.

One hundred and fifty years since the first oil well
was drilled in the US, this industry has reached the end of the line.
The Arctic is said to contain about 90bn barrels of recoverable oil,
which is enough to keep the thirsty world going for oh, three or four
years. As climate change warms the icy seas, more areas become
accessible to drilling. As this oil is extracted and burned, the warming
accelerates and more companies pile in. A neat circle, but one that
risks engulfing us all.

Climate change is a clear and present
danger, and a series of brutal "weather events" this year should serve
as the final warning. We are careful to point out that no single flood,
storm or drought can be blamed on climate change, but the trend is
getting hard to ignore. We are faced with a choice: act with real
urgency to move away from fossil fuels and develop the clean tools that
will help us completely rebuild our economic system, or carry on
squeezing out the last drops and hope for the best.

Cairn Energy
is betting on the status quo. Its letter informs me that the company is
basing its plans on an International Energy Agency report which suggests
that, by 2030, fossil fuels will still supply about 80% of the world's
energy. What it doesn't say is that this "scenario" - the most
pessimistic of several the IEA has produced - could lead to six degrees
of warming by the end of the century.

Six degrees sounds
manageable. It is not. These companies are relying on us to keep quiet
while they take humanity to the brink. Our climbers are on that rig with
a simple message: Go beyond oil.