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Jobs Report Seen as 'Calm Before the Storm' as Trump Chaos Rattles US Economy
"Donald Trump is on track to be the first president to deliberately engineer a severe depression," warned one observer.
Mar 07, 2025
Labor Department figures released Friday show that U.S. job growth was weaker than expected last month as President Donald Trump worked to eviscerate the federal government—the nation's largest employer—and whiplashed financial markets with his erratic tariff announcements and reversals.
The U.S. added 151,000 jobs in February, fewer than the projected 170,000. But economists stressed that the numbers don't yet show the full extent of the damage Trump has done in the opening weeks of his second White House term.
"Unfortunately, this is the calm before the storm as trouble is clearly brewing and the pain will be felt across the economy in coming months," said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.
While Gould stressed that "it's too soon" for jobs data to reflect the impact of the Trump administration's effort, in concert with billionaire Elon Musk, to gut the federal workforce—which has impacted some 100,000 government employees thus far—she said emerging numbers are still cause for concern.
"Nominal wage growth continues to hold steady, rising 4% over the year," Gould noted. "After falling steadily since its peak in June 2022, inflation has hovered around 3% for 20 months. As a result, average real wages have been rising. These gains could all be lost with the proposed tariffs and deportations."
The jobs data comes a day after Trump declared on his social media platform that "the Golden Age of America has just begun"—a message that appeared incongruous with economic trends and the perceptions of small business owners, investors, and working-class Americans facing a potentially massive tax hike and looming cuts to food assistance, Medicaid, and other benefits.
"Just one month on the job, warning signs are flashing across the Trump economy," Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, said in a statement Friday. "Inflation is rising, consumer confidence is plummeting, business investment is pulling back, and now, the labor market is stalling."
"Instead of focusing on tax breaks for billionaires and giant corporations," Jacquez added, "Trump should find a way to get the economy back on track for working families before it spirals into recession."
"Trump has the power to issue commands in the domains that he controls, but he can't command the stock market to levitate, or prices to moderate, or consumers to feel confident, or people who have just been laid off to go out and shop."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a billionaire, conceded Friday that the U.S. economy is showing signs of wavering but insisted it's a "natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending."
"We've become addicted to this government spending, and there's going to be a detox period," Bessent told CNBC.
But economists have warned that Trump's instability and constantly changing whims could result in a prolonged reduction in private investment. The president's tariff policy has been so chaotic that it has some wondering whether he's trying to wreck the economy on purpose.
"If we don't get clarity by the back half of this year, economic uncertainty can be like a deer in the headlights," Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at the investment bank Piper Sandler, toldThe New York Times on Friday. "Things just stop. Business confidence is muted, employment is muted, and capital spending is put on hold."
Richard Trent, executive director of the Main Street Alliance, said in a statement Friday that "small business owners don't need more chaos."
"In the past month alone, market turmoil has frozen hiring, disrupted key programs, and rattled confidence," said Trent. "There's still time to correct this, but that requires President Trump and Elon Musk to work with Congress, follow the law, and restore stability. Main Street needs steady leadership, not chaos and cutbacks."
In a column earlier this week,The American Prospect's Robert Kuttner wrote that less than two months into his second term, "Donald Trump is on track to be the first president to deliberately engineer a severe depression."
"Trump has the power to issue commands in the domains that he controls, but he can't command the stock market to levitate, or prices to moderate, or consumers to feel confident, or people who have just been laid off to go out and shop," Kuttner wrote. "In a couple of weeks, the budget talks will reach the point of an increasingly likely government shutdown. Closing the government will be even more of a hit to total demand and consumer and investor confidence."
"In agreeing to reopen the government, Democrats are in a good position to demand that Trump reopen the whole government, starting with the parts that Musk has illegally shut down," he added. "In the meantime, this engineered crisis is entirely Trump's."
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Federal Judge Extends Block on Trump Funding Freeze
"Plaintiffs have marshaled significant evidence indicating that the funding freeze would be economically catastrophic—and in some circumstances, fatal—to their members," the judge wrote.
Feb 25, 2025
A federal judge in Washington, D.C. issued a preliminary injunction against the Trump administration's funding freeze on Tuesday, handing another win to a coalition representing nonprofits and small businesses impacted by the policy.
Filed by Democracy Forward on behalf of the National Council of Nonprofits, the American Public Health Association, Main Street Alliance, and SAGE, this case is one of two challenges to the funding freeze currently before U.S. district judges.
Judge Loren AliKhan, nominated by former President Joe Biden, noted in her Tuesday opinion that she previously issued a temporary restraining order barring the defendants—Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and its far-right director, Russell Vought—from "implementing, giving effect to, or reinstating under a different name" a now-rescinded memo halting federal funding.
"The Trump administration's OMB grant freeze memo plunged people and communities across the country into chaos and uncertainty."
"The court reminds defendants that the injunctive relief currently in place was issued to temporarily stave off imminent, irreparable harm," AliKhan wrote. "Facts have certainly evolved since then... but defendants cannot pretend that the nationwide chaos and paralysis from two weeks ago is some distant memory with no bearing on this case."
"The relief plaintiffs now seek is a more durable version of the relief they sought then, when their members were on the brink of extinction," she continued. "In sum, plaintiffs have marshaled significant evidence indicating that the funding freeze would be economically catastrophic—and in some circumstances, fatal—to their members."
In a statement responding to the order, Democracy Forward president and CEO Skye Perryman said that "the Trump administration's OMB grant freeze memo plunged people and communities across the country into chaos and uncertainty as they waited to see if critical programs would continue—from childcare, to eldercare, to food services, to health programs, to community initiatives."
"This preliminary injunction will allow our clients to continue to provide services to people across this country," Perryman explained. "We are pleased that the court issued this ruling, halting the Trump administration's lawless attempt to harm everyday Americans in service of a political goal."
Diane Yentel, president and CEO of the National Council of Nonprofits, similarly called the judge's decision "a tremendous relief for thousands of nonprofit organizations throughout the country that are struggling to continue their vital work," which includes "providing wildfire mitigation, disaster relief, services to survivors of domestic violence, support for our nation's veterans, and so much more."
Main Street Alliance executive director Richard Trent said the order is also important to small businesses and the communities they serve. The development also "shows that organizing and targeted legal action are some of the most impactful ways to hold the administration accountable for errant decision-making that touches Main Street," he added.
The preliminary injunction from AliKhan follows a Friday hearing in the other case, before U.S. District Judge John McConnell Jr. in Rhode Island. That challenge was brought by the Democratic attorneys general in 22 states and the District of Columbia. NPRreported that McConnell, who had also issued a temporary restraining order against the funding freeze, said that he would leave it in place, "but that he hoped to have a final ruling on the case in about a week."
McConnell, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, is one of at least three federal judges that congressional Republicans are targeting with impeachment efforts for thwarting Trump's far-right agenda.
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US Judge Delivers Another Blow to 'Harmful' Trump Funding Freeze
"The Trump administration's OMB grant freeze memo plunged people and communities across the country into chaos and uncertainty," said one lawyer. "This order is a lifeline."
Feb 03, 2025
Organizations that challenged U.S. President Donald Trump's attempted federal funding freeze welcomed a Washington, D.C.-based judge's Monday order that further restricts its implementation, which followed a similar decision from another court on Friday.
District Judge Loren AliKhan issued a temporary restraining order following her administrative stay last week. While her initial block on the policy prompted the Trump administration to rescind the relevant memo from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), both AliKhan and District Judge John J. McConnell Jr. of Rhode Island determined that further action was needed, citing White House messaging.
McConnell's Friday decison stemmed from a challenge filed by the attorneys general of 22 states plus D.C., and his decision only applied to them. AliKhan's case was filed by Democracy Forward on behalf of the American Public Health Association, Main Street Alliance, the National Council of Nonprofits, and SAGE, which all celebrated the judge's 30-page order that bars the Trump administration from "implementing, giving effect to, or reinstating under a different name the directives" in the OMB memo.
"A halt on federal agency grants would mean state, local, tribal, and territorial health departments don't get what they need to fund public health and prevention programs and research," said Dr. Georges C. Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, in a Monday statement. "Today's ruling is a major victory towards continuing these vital programs. We will continue to work with partners to protect funds for public health, which were approved by Congress and are making the difference between life and death."
Diane Yentel, chief executive of the National Council of Nonprofits, noted such groups "have been left in limbo by the Trump administration's callous actions" and "now, they finally have some needed clarity and can continue to do their essential work."
"We are determined to continue to do all we can to prevent this administration's reckless attempt to halt funding that would put people's lives and safety at risk, from pausing research on cures for childhood cancer to halting food assistance, [limiting] safety from domestic violence, and closing suicide hotlines," Yentel added.
SAGE CEO Michael Adams, whose group supports older LGBTQ+ people and their caregivers, also highlighted the freeze's impact.
"Restricting federal grants and loans would severely impact the lives of older Americans, including LGBTQ+ elders, who are more vulnerable to health issues, disabilities, and social isolation, and often struggle to access the care and services they need," he said. "We are grateful for this ruling, which protects our older neighbors, friends, and loved ones from the harmful freeze on federal grants and loans."
Companies are similarly "counting on federal funding," said Main Street Alliance executive director Richard Trent, "for services like infrastructure development, workforce training, and childcare programs that allow small businesses to thrive."
"Main Streets in America can't afford for these services to crumble," he continued, "and this ruling is a welcome step in the fight to protect the funding small businesses count on."
Although the decision from AliKhan—an appointee of former Democratic President Joe Biden—is another step toward thwarting Trump's attack on federal funding, Skye Perryman, president and CEO of Democracy Forward, acknowledged that the fight is far from over.
"The Trump administration's OMB grant freeze memo plunged people and communities across the country into chaos and uncertainty as they waited to see if critical programs—from childcare, to eldercare, to food services, to health programs, to community initiatives—would continue," Perryman said.
"This order is a lifeline that provides the breathing room needed for our clients to continue to provide services people across this country rely on," she added. "We look forward to pursuing this case on its merits in court on the behalf of our clients and the American people."
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