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grocery store prices
Key Inflation Indicator Comes in ‘Scorching Hot’ Just as Trump Tariffs Hit
"So much for foreigners paying tariffs," commented one economic expert.
Aug 14, 2025
A leading inflation indicator surged much more than expected last month, just as the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs started to weigh on American businesses and consumers.
New Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers released on Thursday showed that wholesale prices rose by 0.9% over the last month and by 3.3% over the last year. These numbers were significantly higher than economists' consensus estimates of a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.5% yearly rise in producer prices.
PPI is a leading indicator of future readings of the Consumer Price Index, the most widely cited gauge of inflation, as increases in wholesalers' prices almost inevitably get passed on to consumers. Economists have been predicting for months that Trump's tariffs on imported goods, which at the moment are higher than at any point in nearly 100 years, would lead to a spike in inflation.
Reacting to the higher-than-expected PPI number, some economic experts pinned the blame directly on the president.
"So much for foreigners paying tariffs," commented Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consulting firm RSM US, on X. "If they did, PPI would be falling. Wholesale prices up 3.3% from a year ago and 3.7% in the core. The temperature is definitely rising in the core. This implies a hot PCE reading lies ahead."
Liz Pancotti, the managing director of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, took a deep dive into the numbers and found that Trump's tariffs were having an impact on a wide range of products.
"There is no mistaking it: President Trump's tariffs are hitting American farmers and driving up grocery prices for American families," she said. "Wholesale prices for grocery staples, like fresh vegetables (up 39% over the past month) and coffee (up 29% over the past year) are rising, squeezing American families even further in the checkout line."
Pancotti singled out the rise in milk prices as particularly worrisome for American families.
"Milk drove more than 30% of the increase in prices for unprocessed goods, rising by 9.1% in just the past month," she explained. "Tuesday's CPI print showed that milk prices rose by 1.9% in July, and this PPI data suggests further price hikes are on the way."
Betsey Stevenson, who served on former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, also pointed the finger at Trump's policies.
"Tariffs will cause higher prices," she said. "Volatility and uncertainty will cause higher prices. The PPI jump is not a surprise, it was inevitable."
On his Bluesky account, CNBC's Carl Quintanilla flagged analysis from economic research firm High Frequency Economics stating that the new PPI numbers were "a kick in the teeth for anyone who thought that tariffs would not impact domestic prices in the United States economy."
The firm added that it "will not be a long journey for producers' prices to translate into consumer prices" in the coming months.
Liz Thomas, the head of investment strategy at finance company SoFi, argued that the hot PPI numbers could further frustrate Trump's goal of getting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates given that doing so would almost certainly boost inflation further.
"The increase in PPI was driven by services, and there were increases in general services costs and in the Trade component (i.e., wholesale/retail margins)," she commented. "The Fed won't like this report."
Ross Hendricks, an analyst at economic research firm Porter & Co., described the new report as "scorching hot" and similarly speculated that it would stop the Federal Reserve from cutting rates.
"Good luck with them rate cuts!" he wrote. "Can't recall the last time we've seen a miss that big on a single monthly inflation number."
Hedge fund manager and author Jeff Macke jokingly speculated that the bad PPI print would cause Trump to fire yet another government statistician just as he fired Erika McEntarfer, the former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"Whoever compiles the PPI needs to update their CV," he wrote.
Just as with the monthly jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects and publishes PPI data.
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Report Shows 'Financial Insecurity Is Widespread and Runs Deep' in Trump Economy
"Trump's two flagship economic initiatives—his tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill—are not perceived as helping the economy," said an analyst for the pollster YouGov.
Jul 31, 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to immediately bring down inflation upon taking office, but a Thursday report from the Century Foundation finds that Americans' finances are still in a very precarious condition.
The Century Foundation commissioned a survey last month with polling firm Morning Consult and found that roughly 6 in 10 Americans say that Trump's policies are to blame for their current financial struggles. However, the report also emphasized that Americans' "financial insecurity is widespread and runs deep," and that their concerns stretch back well before Trump's second term.
"More than 4 in 5 Americans (83%) are concerned about the price of groceries, with nearly half (46%) saying they are very concerned," writes the Century Foundation. "Nearly half (47%) of Americans are worried about their current ability to pay their rent or mortgage. And nearly two-thirds (64%) worry about their ability to pay an unexpected medical expense if one should arise. Nearly half of all Americans (48%) believe they would have difficulty paying an unexpected $500 bill without borrowing."
These anxieties were particularly strong among younger Generation Z voters, as well as among Black and Latino voters across all age demographics.
Even more troubling, the survey found that Americans are increasingly using financially risky strategies to keep up with paying their bills.
"More than a third of Americans are turning to high-cost debt to cover their bills," writes the Century Foundation. "Significant shares have also had to turn to credit cards (37%) or take on debt (29%) to afford the bills. This is consistent with the larger trends in use of credit products, like the notable shift in use of 'buy now, pay later' products for groceries. The rates of families using credit card debt to cover expenses is all the more concerning as credit card delinquencies continue to rise."
Roughly 2 in 5 Americans reported dipping into their personal savings at least once in the last year in order to pay their bills, while 1 in 4 Americans reported skipping out on meals to make ends meet, the survey found.
When it comes to what Americans see as the major obstacle to having a lower cost of living, the survey found that they considered unchecked corporate power to be the main culprit.
"Across party lines, Americans believe that tamping down corporate power will help them," writes the Century Foundation. "According to most Americans, actions that hold the wealthy and powerful accountable would help them and people like them. That includes reducing the influence of money in politics (60%), prosecuting companies that cheat workers and consumers (60%), and raising taxes on the rich (57%)."
The Century Foundation's poll isn't the only one to release this week to show Americans are highly anxious about the economy. A poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of U.K.-based newspaper The Times found that 50% of Americans believed the economy was getting worse under Trump's watch while just 24% said it was improving.
This poll similarly found that Americans are concerned about the cost of living and the impacts that Trump's tariffs will have on their ability to afford basic necessities such as groceries.
"The honeymoon at the beginning has gone: Inflation and jobs are still the leading issues and there is not a perception of anything improving," explained YouGov analyst Mark Blumenthal. "The survey suggests that Trump's two flagship economic initiatives—his tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill—are not perceived as helping the economy."
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Corporate Greed Is Costing You at the Grocery Store
Consolidation in our food system affects more than just prices. It also damages whole local economies.
Apr 01, 2024
During this year's State of the Union Address, President Joe Biden spoke to what most people in the U.S. are seeing right now — trips to the grocery store are more expensive than ever. The reason? Corporate greed.
“Too many corporations raise their prices to pad their profits, charging you more and more for less and less,” he said.
We couldn’t agree more. In the days before the State of the Union, we found that from 2020 to 2024, the cost to feed a family of four grew 2.5 more than the rate of inflation.
Meanwhile, corporate profits rose five times faster than inflation from 2020 to 2022 — some to record highs. What’s more, a recent report from the Biden administration shows how big companies benefited from worsening the supply chain problems that raised prices during the pandemic.
This trend has been enabled by lax antitrust enforcement that has let corporate giants get bigger. And as they get bigger, their power grows, too. Luckily, we know just how to tackle this — and so does Biden.
How Corporate Consolidation Leads to Higher Prices
First, let’s take a look at how corporate consolidation works in the American economy. We say markets are “consolidated” when a small handful of very big companies dominate an entire sector. They do this by buying (acquisitions) or joining (mergers) with another company.
Consolidation gives these giant corporations the ability to dictate what goes on in the market, from prices to working conditions. As the president himself said, “Grocers in consolidated markets charge you more because you have nowhere else to shop.” That’s market power.
And corporations are amassing it all across our food system. A few huge players have taken over the markets for dairy, packaged foods, seeds, grocery stores, and more.
Previous governments have failed to stop this trend. Decades ago, the U.S. took consolidation seriously, but more recent administrations have sided with corporations over families. They failed to stop mergers and acquisitions or the unfair practices that big corporations use to cement their reign. As a result, food prices are soaring, while CEOs and shareholders pocket unprecedented profits.
Consolidation Means Big Wins for Corporations, Big Losses for Everyone Else
Consolidation in our food system affects more than just prices. It also damages whole local economies. For example, big grocery stores can adopt cost-cutting measures that make it impossible for smaller stores to compete. Small businesses shutter. Then, because the big stores are the only option in town, they can raise prices again — and that’s exactly what they do.
Growing consolidation and market power also gives corporations more leverage to pay lower wages, while those at the top hoard profits for themselves. For instance, Walmart is the biggest grocery chain in the country, and it paid its CEO $25 million in 2023. That’s 933 times the median associate’s wages, which are also below the poverty line for a family of four. At the same time, the grocery juggernaut saw a $163 million increase in profits from 2022 to 2023, for a total of over $13.6 billion.
Moreover, market power enables corporations to get away with harmful, cost-cutting practices, like the poor manure management on factory farms that pollutes communities with waste. Such practices directly harm our climate, environment, and public health.
Market power also helps companies get away with shady tactics, like charging us the same for less product. This “shrinkflation” is inflating how much we spend on household essentials like food, soap, and toilet paper.
The bigger and more powerful a corporation is, the more it can duck accountability for its actions — and the more it can influence policymakers by spending millions on lobbying to sway policy in their favor.
Biden Is Fighting High Grocery Prices at the Root
We have antitrust agencies designed to rein in corporate consolidation. For example, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department (DOJ) are supposed to assess proposed mergers and step in if they pose a threat to markets. We also have antitrust laws like the Packers and Stockyards Act, which is supposed to ensure fair and competitive markets in the meat industry.
Yet, antitrust enforcement has fallen — that is, until Biden came into office. The president has taken the kind of action to tackle market power that we haven’t seen for decades.
His 2021 executive order began tackling monopolies in all corners of the economy, especially in food and agriculture. It included 70 actions to foster more competition, including directing the USDA to create rules to breathe new life into the Packers and Stockyards Act. Two of those rules have been finalized so far.
This executive order also urged the FTC and DOJ to revise merger guidelines. These detail how these agencies evaluate the risks of mergers and decide whether they’ll challenge them. (Food & Water Watch submitted comments with recommendations to strengthen the guidelines against harmful mergers.)
And, in December of last year, the Biden administration set a record for merger challenges. The FTC and DOJ issued the highest number of challenges since the U.S. began requiring antitrust reviews before mergers almost five decades ago.
Now, in March, the president announced a new strike force to tackle “unfair and illegal corporate pricing.” These are exactly the kinds of actions we need to stand up to corporations and put American families first.
The Next Big Fight: A Grocery Mega-Merger from Hell
Yet more grocery consolidation looms on the horizon. In 2022, grocery giant Kroger announced it planned to buy its competitor, Albertsons — these two are the second and fourth-largest grocery stores in the country, respectively.
This $24.6 billion deal would be a gold mine for the companies’ CEOs and owners, and it would cement Kroger’s place near the peak of the grocery store food chain.
However, thanks to the work of organizations including Food & Water Watch, Biden’s FTC has recognized how harmful this merger will be. In February, it announced a suit to block the acquisition, which is scheduled for trial in August. This is a welcome step in preventing this disastrous megamerger — and we need more action like it to curb growing market power.
Biden can and must finalize the third rule strengthening the Packers and Stockyards Act. He also must continue opposing mergers in the ag and food sectors, like Kroger-Albertsons.
At the same time, Food & Water Watch will keep working to expose the truth behind rising prices and all the other failures of our food system. We’re debunking corporations’ lies and excuses, and we’re shining light on their tactics for profiting at everyone else’s expense. We’re fighting for the fair food system we need to ensure healthy, safe, and affordable food for everyone.
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