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Le Pen Accused of Exploiting Paris Shooting Days Before Election
President Donald Trump also appeared to throw weight behind right-wing candidate in highly unpredictable election
Apr 21, 2017
Right-wing French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen was accused Friday of exploiting the fatal shooting of a Paris police officer that occurred Thursday, as the anti-immigrant candidate seeks to bolster turnout before Sunday's presidential election.
Le Pen immediately invoked fears of "a war against us," and in response the French prime minister Bernard Cazeneuve accused the Front National candidate of "shamelessly exploiting fear and emotion for purely political ends," reported AFP. Le Pen's center-right rival Emmanuel Macron also accused Le Pen and the Republican candidate Francois Fillon of exploiting the shooting to their advantage.
French President Francois Hollande said Thursday that the attack appeared to be an act of terrorism, and on Friday Paris police announced that the perpetrator was a French citizen.
The Australian described Le Pen's fear-mongering, xenophobic commentary:
In the wake of the attack, Le Pen said "this war against us is ceaseless and merciless," and charged that the outgoing Socialist government and its right wing predecessor had "done everything to ensure that we lose" the fight.
Le Pen, widely seen as taking the hardest line on security among the candidates, called for France to "immediately" take back control of its own borders from the European Union and deport all foreigners on a terror watchlist.
And President Donald Trump appeared to throw his weight behind Le Pen's right-wing campaign, Salon noted, tweeting Friday that "the people of France will not take much more of this" in reference to the Paris attack.
Le Pen and Trump have been connected in the past, notes Salon: "Le Pen and Trump have been said to represent the emerging anti-globalist movement that has taken Europe and the United States. Le Pen was seen at Trump Tower during the presidential transition, but both parties refused to confirm whether or not they had met."
It remains to be seen how or whether the attack in Paris will affect Sunday's vote. Le Pen's leading spot in the polls has been slipping in recent weeks, and left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has been gaining ground.
While center-right candidate Macron, a former investment banker who has never held elected office, is the favorite to win, polls show the three politicians plus the scandal-ridden Republican party candidate, Fillon, all within striking distance of one another.
The large size of the field--in total, there are 11 candidates--and falling political fortunes of France's once-leading parties has made this a highly unusual and unpredictable election.
"This situation is totally unprecedented," said Emmanuel Riviere, managing director of the polling firm Kantar Public France, in an interview with Bloomberg. "The fact that there are four potential finalists makes the situation very complex."
"[V]oters are abandoning the two mainstream parties, the Socialists and Republicans, which have dominated French politics for decades," explained CNN's Frida Ghitis. "While they have always garnered the overwhelming majority of support, this time they may not get even a quarter of the votes. In fact, the parties that until now took turns governing France may not even have a candidate in the final round."
If no candidate captures 50 percent of the vote, which is likely given the size of the field, the two front-runners will face each other in a run-off vote next month.
It's even possible that the country could see a run-off vote between the far-right and far-left candidates, as Common Dreams reported last week.
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'Wrong Kind of Populism' Fails in Netherlands as Geert Wilders Defeated
Europeans relieved over right-winger's loss in election for prime minister, and more good news came after Green party quadrupled voting share
Mar 16, 2017
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte hailed his victory over right-wing challenger Geert Wilders on Wednesday as a rejection of the "wrong kind of populism," as Europeans anxiously watching the election held out hope for similar outcomes in Germany and France.
With 33 seats, Rutte's VVD party became the largest in the Dutch Parliament as voters overwhelmingly rejected Wilders' anti-Islam platform, although his Freedom Party (PVV) did gain 20 seats.
"Tonight the Netherlands, after Brexit and the American elections, said 'stop' to the wrong kind of populism," Rutte told a crowd of supporters in The Hague.
Although the VVD is center-right, its victory against PVV was seen as critical. Wilders, who has gained notoriety for his provocative statements, ran on an Islamophobic, anti-immigrant platform and has been cited by the United Nations and human rights groups as one of the "Western demagogues" fueling the rise of nationalism around the world, along with U.S. President Donald Trump and the U.K.'s Nigel Farage.
With far-right figures also hoping to make gains in Germany and France's upcoming elections, many voters saw the Netherlands as a first test of new-wave rightwing populism in Europe. Wilders' loss reinvigorated hopes that those parties would likewise fail.
French President Francois Hollande congratulated Rutte and said he won a "clear victory against extremism."
German Socialist leader Martin Schulz tweeted, "I am relieved, but we need to continue to fight for an open and Free Europe."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, expressed unrestrained joy at the outcome, tweeting, "The Netherlands, oh the Netherlands you are a champion!...Congratulations on this great result."
The Christian Democrats (CDA) and Liberal Democrats (D66) both won 19 seats.
Meanwhile, the Greens quadrupled their vote share with 14 seats, up from just four in 2012.
"This is a fantastic result for us, a historic victory," said the party's chairwoman Marjolein Meijer, who said the outcome meant there was "very fertile ground in the Netherlands for change and a positive and hopeful story."
"For us this is just the beginning," she said.
The Greens' victory means it is now the largest left-wing party in the Netherlands' history. Its leader, Jesse Klaver, urged voters to be "pro-refugee" and "pro-European."
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A Global Counter-Trump Movement Is Taking Shape
While the far right is on the march globally, there are signs progressives are stirring from their slumber.
Feb 22, 2017
Let's hope that Donald Trump is the political version of syrup of ipecac.
The American system has been sick to its stomach for some time. Then along comes Donald Trump, America swallows him (hook, line, and sinker), and the system experiences gut-churning convulsions ever since. According to the most hopeful medical prognosis, America will eventually expel Trump from its system and feel so much better afterwards.
Reminder: The whole world is watching. How we deal with this president's fundamentally anti-American policies will have tremendous international ramifications. In fact, the rest of the world is already dealing with the "Trump effect."
"Trump is a whiff of something evil-smelling that jolts progressive politics all over the world out of its swoon."
After all, while Trump is our emetic, he's the rest of the world's smelling salts. Some key countries around the world are already coming to their senses about the threat of dangerous populists. The test cases will be France and Germany. But a progressive backlash appears to be building elsewhere as well.
Against Le Pen
Marine Le Pen is the smiling face of the new fascism.
She's a twice-divorced Catholic who supports a woman's right to choose. But she's also a dangerous populist with virulently anti-immigrant, anti-multicultural, anti-EU views. She's more law-and-order than Rudy Giuliani. And her anti-globalization rants appeal to some on the left, which means that her National Front party is doing well in areas that once voted for the French Communists.
Marine Le Pen is also a frontrunner in the presidential race slated for later this spring. She leads her rivals in the latest polls with 27 percent. It's enough to generate predictions of a Trump-like upset.
Until recently, her major challenge came from someone with views nearly as abhorrent as hers. Francois Fillon, the candidate of the conservative Republicans, was clearly hoping to steal votes from Le Pen, the New York Times reported, when he "positioned himself as a staunch defender of French values, vowing to restore authority, honor the Roman Catholic Church, and exert 'strict administrative control' over Islam."
Yet the upright Fillon hasn't turned out to be as scrupulous as he pretended. A scandal involving alleged payments to family members for parliamentary work has caused Fillon to slip considerably in the polls.
This would ordinarily represent an opportunity for the left. But the socialist and left parties haven't been able to reconcile their differences and unite against the center-right and the National Front.
Which leaves independent politician Emmanuel Macron as the most appealing candidate who can go up against Le Pen. Macron isn't an easy politician to pin down. He was the economy minister in Francois Hollande's Socialist government, but he's infuriated the more obdurate of the French left by embracing free trade, challenging union privileges, and speaking out against the 35-hour workweek (at least for younger workers). On the other hand, Macron is EU-friendly, pro-immigrant, a fan of Germany over Russia, and committed to the full progressive agenda on social issues.
Despite his establishment credentials, Macron is presenting himself as an outsider. He's channeled Trump by railing against the elite -- those who take advantage of their entrenched economic and political privileges -- and he wants to shake up France with En Marche! movement. He's also channeled Obama by emphasizing his own youth and dynamism.
Macron isn't afraid to make waves. He took a hit in the polls recently when he argued that French colonial policy in Algeria amounted to a "crime against humanity" and refused to back down from implicating the French state in these acts.
However you define him politically -- and he himself avoids labels -- Macron is the best bet that French progressives have of defeating Le Pen in a second round of voting. As long as Le Pen doesn't secure an outright majority in the first round, most of the French electorate will have an opportunity to gang up against the neo-fascist threat -- just as they did when her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, made it to the second round in 2002.
Macron can also ensure that France doesn't end up with Fillon's only slightly less repugnant version of National Front politics (the equivalent of defeating Trump only to elect Ted Cruz).
Taking Back Germany
For Angela Merkel, it's the best of times and the worst of times.
The rise of Donald Trump and the retreat of the United States from international affairs have placed Merkel and Germany at the moral center of the "West" because of their acceptance of refugees and non-acceptance of Vladimir Putin. Domestically, however, while Merkel's immigration policies have infuriated the German right, the economic policies that have impoverished Greece and threatened the cohesion of the European Union have angered the German left. The Christian Democratic Party is consequently slumping at the polls.
Despite all the press that Franke Petry and her far-right Alternative fur Deutschland party have gotten in the Western press -- including this almost admiring piece in The New Yorker -- the anti-immigrant party only polls around 10 percent. The real beneficiary of the Trump victory in Germany has been Martin Schulz, the head of the Social Democratic Party. Schulz has effectively used the threat of nationalism and Trump-like politics to bring his party neck and neck with Merkel's Christian Democrats. Writes Anthony Faiola in The Washington Post:
In a country that stands as a painful example of the disastrous effects of radical nationalism, Schulz is building a campaign in part around bold attacks on Trump. He has stopped well short of direct comparisons to Adolf Hitler, but Schulz recently mentioned Trump in the same speech in which he heralded his party's resistance to the Nazis in the lead-up to World War II.
Schulz is the former president of the European parliament, where he also served as a member for two decades. As such, Schulz has become the face of the new MEGA campaign: Make Europe Great Again. Having been active at the European level for so long, Schulz is also something of an outsider to domestic German politics. Like Trump, he prides himself on being self-taught. Unlike Trump, he actually reads books.
The Social Democrats might not succeed in dislodging Merkel. But they'll help keep the extremists out of power and may just manage to get enough votes to necessitate a grand coalition. With the European Union threatening to implode, such an example of trans-partisan governance at the heart of the continent could reassure those fed up with political polarization that compromise -- and indeed, politics as we know it -- can still thrive in modern democracies.
Less optimistic is the situation in the Netherlands, where the party of extremist Geert Wilders is leading the polls. Wilders, whose mother's family came from Indonesia and whose wife is Hungarian, has built his career on anti-immigrant fanaticism. If he becomes prime minister, he's promised to guide his country out of the EU, close borders to immigrants, and close all mosques: Trump on steroids.
The Dutch elections take place in mid-March. Even if Wilders wins a plurality of the votes, it's not likely that he'll be able to form a government. No other parties are willing to join hands with such a toxic politician. The Dutch might be crazy enough to vote for Wilders -- but they're not crazy enough to actually work with him.
Outside Europe
Closer to home, the Trump effect is providing the Mexican left with its greatest boost in years. Huge demonstrations have taken place around the country to protest the energy policies of Enrique Pena Nieto's government and the immigration and trade policies of Donald Trump. Nieto's popularity is embarrassingly low -- 12 percent, lower even than Trump's.
Veteran left politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the major benefactor of all this dissatisfaction. He's a perpetual outsider to Mexico's national politics. But, like Bernie Sanders, he acquired considerable experience as a mayor -- of Mexico City from 2000 to 2005. "He ran a populist and popular administration which kept subway fares low, built elevated freeways and partnered with the billionaire Carlos Slim to restore the city's historic center," writes David Agren in The Guardian. "He also provided stipends to seniors and single mothers, initiatives initially denounced as populism but replicated by others including Pena Nieto."
AMLO, as he is often called, is currently the presidential frontrunner, though elections won't take place until July 2018. But he's not holding his fire until then. "Enough of being passive," AMLO said recently. "We should put a national emergency plan in place to face the damage and reverse the protectionist policies of Donald Trump."
With Justin Trudeau in Canada and a possible leftist leader in Mexico, Donald Trump would be caught in a potential North American containment strategy. Perhaps, in a reversal of the Cold War dynamic, Europe would establish military bases in Montreal and Tijuana to make sure that the United States doesn't overstep its bounds.
Further afield, South Korea will be holding an election this year after a decade of conservative rule. The current president, Park Geun-Hye, has popularity figures even lower than Nieto or Trump. She's been embroiled in an impeachment process over corruption charges, her conservative party has changed its name to escape any associations with her reign, and no truly viable conservative candidate has emerged to extend the right's hold on power. Ban Ki-Moon, the former UN general secretary, was briefly the Hail Mary candidate for conservatives before dropping out of the running.
The current frontrunner, Moon Jae-in, is an establishment progressive who used to work in the Roh Moo-Hyun administration. He would resurrect some of Roh's policies such as a more balanced approach to the United States and China as well as some form of principled engagement with North Korea. But he's not the only progressive alternative. There's also the mayor of Seongnam, Lee Jae-Myeong, who styles himself the Sanders of South Korea.
The election is officially scheduled for December, but if Park is impeached, the date would be moved up. No doubt many in the United States wish the South Korean electoral rules pertained here: impeachment followed by new elections. Impeachment is still an option, of course, but the prospect of President Pence isn't reassuring.
In November, Donald Trump's victory seemed to be part of a global rejection of liberal internationalism -- from Russia to the UK to the Philippines. Certainly many in the Trump administration, most notably strategic advisor Steve Bannon, hope to use their newly acquired juice to help their compatriots, like Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders, take power as well.
But threats have a marvelous mobilizing effect. Donald Trump may be an inspiration to some. For many others, however, Trump is a whiff of something evil-smelling that jolts progressive politics all over the world out of its swoon.
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'Unprecedented': Trump Adds Bannon to National Security Council, Kicks Out Intelligence Officials
'To reiterate, the Joint Chiefs of Staff have been removed from the National Security Council and replaced with a white nationalist. Worry.'
Jan 29, 2017
President Donald Trump signed memorandums on Saturday that kicked the nation's top military and intelligence advisers off the National Security Council's (NSC) Principals Committee and elevated his chief strategist, Steve Bannon, in their place.
The memorandum gives Bannon, former executive chair of the rightwing website Breitbart News, a regular seat at some of the most sensitive meetings at the highest levels of government, along with other NSC meetings.
The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff--who need to be confirmed by the Senate--will now only attend the meetings when discussions pertain to their "responsibilities and expertise," the memo states.
"This is unusual," writes John Bellinger at Lawfare Blog. "[T]he NSC function usually does not include participants from the political side of the White House."
Under former President George W. Bush, for example, Karl Rove did not attend NSC meetings, Bellinger noted. "According to former Chief of Staff Josh Bolten, President Bush did not want to appear, especially to the military, to insert domestic politics into national security decisionmaking."
Additionally, while Bannon has been granted this privileged access, CIA director Mike Pompeo has not--another break with tradition, Bellinger wrote.
Both Bush and former President Barack Obama gave the DNI and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff regular seats on their councils.
Bellinger notes other irregularities:
The NSC executive secretary (General Keith Kellogg) "shall" attend all Principals Committee and Deputies Committee meetings. This is also unusual. The executive secretary in the Bush administration was generally too busy and did not attend NSC or PC meetings.
[....] The Deputies Committee will have at least 14 regularly invited participants and potentially 19 or more. This will be unwieldy.
CNN national security correspondent Jim Sciutto called Bannon's placement on the committee "unprecedented."
"You're putting in someone who is not Senate confirmed and taking out the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Director of National Intelligence, who need to be Senate confirmed," Sciutto told CNN's Jake Tapper. "It raises questions about whose voices will be most prominent about key national-security decisions in the country."
Former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates likewise told ABC on Sunday that excluding the DNI and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was "a big mistake."
"Under law, there are only two statutory advisers to the National Security Council--the DNI, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff," Gates said. "Pushing them out [is] a big mistake. They both bring perspective, judgment, and experience to bear that every president--whether they like it or not--finds useful."
MSNBC's Joy Reid summed it up thus: "To reiterate, the Joint Chiefs of Staff have been removed from the National Security Council and replaced with a white nationalist. Worry."
The memo was issued amid a second series of executive orders in Trump's first full week in office, including ordering the Pentagon to devise a plan in 30 days to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS). The president also held several calls with foreign leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Francois Hollande, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Bannon joined Trump for all of those calls.
The move also affirms Bannon's rise just after Trump echoed the strategist's recent comments that the media is "the opposition party."
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Protesting Rise of Alt-Right at Home and Abroad, Parisians Rally Against Trump
"Right-wing demagoguery is on the rise throughout Europe," said protest organizers. "Trump's victory serves as encouragement to dangerous demagogues everywhere."
Nov 21, 2016
With an eye towards their own upcoming presidential election and the growing popularity of National Front leader Marine Le Pen, French citizens took to the streets of Paris on Saturday to protest U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, vowing to mobilize against the international rise of the far-right.
"The results of the United States presidential election have outraged people around the globe," declared the organizers, known as Paris Against Trump, who came together through their work with the International Support for Black Lives campaign.
"Given the influence and powerful position of the United States on the world's geopolitical stage, Trump is a threat not only to people in the U.S., but to people throughout the world," the group's manifesto continued. "His brand of populist scapegoating is not unique to the United States. Following Brexit earlier this year, right-wing demagoguery is on the rise throughout Europe. Trump's victory serves as encouragement to dangerous demagogues everywhere."
Indeed, Trump's election has been widely compared to the United Kingdom's surprise vote to leave the European Union, as both campaigns used divisive, anti-immigrant rhetoric to stoke animosity against the ruling political class.
Now, the international community is focused on France's upcoming election--the first round of which begins on April 23, 2017--as the next indicator of the potency of this movement.
A new Ipsos poll released Sunday shows the far-right Le Pen gaining ground. However, when pitted in a hypothetical match-up against Republican Alain Juppe, who The Independent notes is the "strong favorite to succeed Francois Hollande," Le Pen remains behind.
Juppe, the mayor of Bordeaux who was prime minister under Jacques Chirac, must first face former prime minister Francois Fillon, who won the first round primary on Sunday, in the Republican Party runoff election on November 27.
Explaining how the anti-establishment undercurrent could play out in France, The Independent reports:
While Mr. Juppe holds leads of between 4 and 7 per cent in three other scenarios including him, the results are likely to add to growing fears that the rise of global populism could see Ms. Le Pen secure a surprise victory in the wake of the UK's Brexit vote and Donald Trump's U.S. election win.
Under the French election system, barring the unlikely possibility one candidate gains an overall majority in the first round vote, the two candidates with the most votes will contest a second and decisive round on 7 May.
Second round opinion polls have consistently given Mr Juppe a significant lead over Ms Le Pen.
The alt-right mouthpiece Breitbart News, run by Steve Bannon, Trump's selection for chief strategist, is actively campaigning on behalf of Le Pen and celebrated the latest poll results.
Much like Trump, Le Pen has risen to power on a campaign of anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim protectionism. But, as Saturday's protest made clear, residents are prepared to counter the divisive rhetoric, whether spread domestically or abroad.
"We must roll up our sleeves and mobilize," the group declared. "We must show our willingness to fight for the protection of our rights and democratic ideals. We must say NO to racism, misogyny, Islamophobia, homophobia and transphobia, anti-Semitism, ableism, xenophobia, and white nationalism. We must counter [Trump's] hate with messages of tolerance, solidarity, and love."
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Unified Against Trump Threat, World Vows To Push Ahead on Climate Action
"Climate change is not going to wait for U.S. action and the rest of the world is clear it is moving forward," said campaigner
Nov 18, 2016
Underscoring the "climate pariah" that the United States is expected to become under a President-elect Donald Trump, world leaders concluded the United Nations climate talks on Friday by re-committing to the goals of the Paris accord and vowing to take swift action to reduce global emissions.
"We call for the highest political commitment to combat climate change, as a matter of urgent priority," reads the Marrakech Action Proclamation (pdf), which was signed by 196 countries.
"Indeed, this year, we have seen extraordinary momentum on climate change worldwide," it states. "This momentum is irreversible--it is being driven not only by governments, but by science, business, and global action of all types at all levels."
The declaration calls for "strong solidarity with those countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change," as well as efforts to "eradicate poverty" and "ensure food security" as global warming takes its toll on agriculture, particularly in the Global South. The document further calls on "all non-state actors to join us for immediate and ambitious action and mobilization" to reduce emissions and transition to sustainable development and energy sources.
Additionally, 47 of the world's most climate vulnerable nations pledged to "meet 100 percent domestic renewable energy production as rapidly as possible."
Holding up the pledge from the Climate Vulnerable Forum as "demonstrat[ing] what government leadership needs to look like," Payal Parekh, 350.org global program director, said: "The world is finally seeing the urgency for collective climate action."
And there is good reason for the urgency. Delegates wrapped up the conference in Marrakech amid another warning about the "climate emergency" upon us, as record-breaking temperatures continued for the third year in a row.
Further, the widespread show of solidarity occurred in the face of the recent election of Trump, who denies the reality of man-made global warming and has pledged to pull the United States from the Paris agreement.
Benjamin Schreiber of Friends of the Earth U.S. said at the conclusion of the talks, "Climate change is not going to wait for U.S. action and the rest of the world is clear it is moving forward. Trump's election must unify the world in treating the U.S. as a climate pariah, and respond to his Presidency by redoubling ambition."
And it seems it has. In an op-ed this week, environmental representatives from Ethiopia, the Philippines, and Costa Rica wrote that "the recent outcome of the U.S. elections cannot stop those of us dedicated to battling climate change."
"No country has said it will walk away from global action," said Ethiopia's minister of environment and climate Gemedo Dalle; Sen. Loren Legarda, chair of the Philippine senate's Permanent Committee on Climate Change; and Edgar Gutierrez, Costa Rican minister of Environment and Energy.
"To the contrary," they continued,
countries including China, members of the European Union, Japan and Saudi Arabia have all reconfirmed their commitment to implement the Paris Agreement. Others, such as Australia, Pakistan and Italy, have even joined the agreement in the days since the U.S. elections. French President Francois Hollande and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon have called on President-elect Trump to drop his campaign pledge to cancel the Paris Agreement; Ban called the Paris Agreement "unstoppable."
Together they send a resounding message: The countries of the world will forge on. Those that do will be better off by skipping all the downsides of a 19th century development model characterized by the burning of fossil fuels to achieve economic growth, while cashing in on more jobs, more growth and a higher quality of work and life.
"While the U.S. election could have derailed the negotiations, what's happened in Marrakech has given hope that global action on climate change will not be deterred by isolated politicians," said David Turnbull, campaigns director for Oil Change International.
However, Turnbull and others noted that, given that studies have shown that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5oC will be far surpassed under nations' current reduction targets, the negotiations still "failed to meet the urgency of the climate crisis."
But, Turnbull added, "countries and social movements came together to keep pushing forward at a time when resolve is essential."
"The lessons of Marrakech are clear," he continued. "Don't look to bureaucrats or climate-denying Presidents to take the lead on global climate action. Look to the people in the streets and in communities around the world. These are the people-powered movements resisting fossil fuels and building a renewable energy future, and this is the path to victory."
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From Cheers to Caution, World Leaders React to Trump Victory
French President François Hollande said the result "opens a period of uncertainty."
Nov 09, 2016
As shock waves went global over Donald Trump's defeat of Hillary Clinton, world leaders on Wednesday offered their takes on the outcome, which has the potential to "upend the international order."
While offering his congratulations, French President Francois Hollande said the result "opens a period of uncertainty." He said that "certain positions taken by Donald Trump during the American campaign must be confronted with the values and interests we share with the United States." He added that "what is at stake is peace, the fight against terrorism, the situation in the Middle East. It is economic relations and the preservation of the planet."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Agence France-Presse reports,
referenced some of [the president-elect's] most controversial remarks in reminding Trump of his responsibilities: "Germany and America share the values of democracy, freedom, respect for the rule of law and human dignity, regardless of origin, skin colour, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political belief."
Merkel added, "I think we have to face it that American foreign policy will be less predictable for us, and we must be sure that America will be inclined more often to decide alone."
Her remarks, Huffington Post writes, "are likely issued as a pointed warning to Trump, who has called for all 1.6 billion members of a religion to be banned from the U.S. to prevent terror attacks."
In the U.K., "where Trump's victory had echoes of last June's referendum in which voters showed dissatisfaction with the political establishment by voting to leave European Union," Reuters writes, Prime Minister Theresa May, who shuttered her government's climate change office, stated that she looks forward to working with the Republican and that their two countries will "remain strong and close partners on trade, security, and defense."
As for reaction in Greece, AFP reports: "A source close to Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras admitted to being 'worried about the questions of respect for human rights and minority rights' in the U.S.."
Addressing the fate of the nuclear deal Iran and world powers agreed to in 2015, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that the accord "cannot be overturned by one government's decision." Trump previously said his "number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran."
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to Trump's win saying the real estate mogul is "a true friend of the State of Israel," while Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennett said he hoped a Trump presidency would mean that "[t]he era of the Palestinian state is over."
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his congratulations to Trump, saying the win could help build "a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington on the principles of equality, mutual respect, and real consideration for each other's position."
In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he hoped to "take India-U.S. bilateral ties to a new height."
In Japan, where residents expressed "worry" over the upcoming administration and the Nikkei stock index plummeted, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe--who's pushed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal Trump campaigned against--said, "Japan and the United States are unwavering allies, firmly bound by the bonds of our universal values--freedom, democracy, basic human rights, and the rule of law."
Among those offering warm praise were noted anti-migrant officials in Europe.
Hungary's right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who previously called migrants "poison," wrote on his Facebook page that Trump's win was "great news. Democracy is still alive."
Czeck President President Milos Zeman--who previously declared that "integration of the Muslim community [in Western Europe] is practically impossible"--said he was "very happy" about Trump's win, adding that he "agree[s] with his opinions on migration as well as the fight against Islamic terrorism" and appreciates Trump's avoidance of "political correctness."
Marine Le Pen, head of France's Front National, tweeted, "Congratulations to the new President of the U.S., Donald Trump, and the American people--free!" while the party's vice president, Florian Philippot, tweeted a photo of Le Pen and stated, "Their world is collapsing. Ours is being built."
Taking stock of what a Trump presidency could mean, one Irish observer writes, "This is a New Frontier indeed."
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Will Trumpism, Brexit, and Geopolitical Exceptionalism Sink the Planet?
The mounting threat to climate progress
Sep 15, 2016
In a year of record-settingheat on a blistered globe, with fast-warming oceans, fast-melting ice caps, and fast-rising sea levels, ratification of the December 2015 Paris climate summit agreement -- already endorsed by most nations -- should be a complete no-brainer. That it isn't tells you a great deal about our world. Global geopolitics and the possible rightward lurch of many countries (including a potential deal-breaking election in the United States that could put a climate denier in the White House) spell bad news for the fate of the Earth. It's worth exploring how this might come to be.
The delegates to that 2015 climate summit were in general accord about the science of climate change and the need to cap global warming at 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius (or 2.6 to 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit) before a planetary catastrophe ensues. They disagreed, however, about much else. Some key countries were in outright conflict with other states (Russia with Ukraine, for example) or deeply hostile to each other (as with India and Pakistan or the U.S. and Iran). In recognition of such tensions and schisms, the assembled countries crafted a final document that replaced legally binding commitments with the obligation of each signatory state to adopt its own unique plan, or "nationally determined contribution" (NDC), for curbing climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions.
As a result, the fate of the planet rests on the questionable willingness of each of those countries to abide by that obligation, however sour or bellicose its relations with other signatories may be. As it happens, that part of the agreement has already been buffeted by geopolitical headwinds and is likely to face increasing turbulence in the years to come.
That geopolitics will play a decisive role in determining the success or failure of the Paris Agreement has become self-evident in the short time since its promulgation. While some progress has been made toward its formal adoption -- the agreement will enter into force only after no fewer than 55 countries, accounting for at least 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions, have ratified it -- it has also encountered unexpected political hurdles, signaling trouble to come.
On the bright side, in a stunning diplomatic coup, President Obama persuaded Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign the accord with him during a recent meeting of the G-20 group of leading economies in Hangzhou. Together, the two countries are responsible for a striking 40% of global emissions. "Despite our differences on other issues," Obama noted during the signing ceremony, "we hope our willingness to work together on this issue will inspire further ambition and further action around the world."
Brazil, the planet's seventh largest emitter, just signed on as well, and a number of states, including Japan and New Zealand, have announced their intention to ratify the agreement soon. Many others are expected to do so before the next major U.N. climate summit in Marrakesh, Morocco, this November.
On the dark side, however, Great Britain's astonishingBrexit vote has complicated the task of ensuring the European Union's approval of the agreement, as European solidarity on the climate issue -- a major factor in the success of the Paris negotiations -- can no longer be assured. "There is a risk that this could kick EU ratification of the Paris Agreement into the long grass," suggests Jonathan Grant, director of sustainability at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
The Brexit campaign itself was spearheaded by politicians who were also major critics of climate science and strong opponents of efforts to promote a transition from carbon-based fuels to green sources of energy. For example, the chair of the Vote Leave campaign, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson, is also chairman of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a think-tank devoted to sabotaging government efforts to speed the transition to green energy. Many other top Leave campaigners, including former Conservative ministers John Redwood and Owen Paterson, were also vigorous climate deniers.
In explaining the strong link between these two camps, analysts at the Economist noted that both oppose British submission to international laws and norms: "Brexiteers dislike EU regulations and know that any effective action to tackle climate change will require some kind of global cooperation: carbon taxes or binding targets on emissions. The latter would be the EU writ large and Britain would have even less say in any global agreement, involving some 200 nations, than in an EU regime involving 28."
Keep in mind as well that Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, the leaders of the other two anchors of the European Union, Germany and France, are both embattled by right-wing anti-immigrant parties likely to be similarly unfriendly to such an agreement. And in what could be the deal-breaker of history, this same strain of thought, combining unbridled nationalism, climate denialism, fierce hostility to immigration, and unwavering support for domestic fossil fuel production, also animates Donald Trump's campaign for the American presidency.
In his first major speech on energy, delivered in May, Trump -- who has called global warming a Chinese hoax -- pledged to "cancel the Paris climate agreement" and scrap the various measures announced by President Obama to ensure U.S. compliance with its provisions. Echoing the views of his Brexit counterparts, he complained that "this agreement gives foreign bureaucrats control over how much energy we use on our land, in our country. No way." He also vowed to revive construction of the Keystone XL pipeline (which would bring carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands oil to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast), to reverse any climate-friendly Obama administration acts, and to promote the coal industry. "Regulations that shut down hundreds of coal-fired power plants and block the construction of new ones -- how stupid is that?" he said, mockingly.
In Europe, ultra-nationalist parties on the right are riding a wave of Islamaphobia, anti-immigrant sentiment, and disgust with the European Union. In France, for instance, former president Nicolas Sarkozy announced his intention to run for that post again, promising even more stringent controls on migrants and Muslims and a greater focus on French "identity." Even further to the right, the rabidly anti-Muslim Marine Le Pen is also in the race at the head of her National Front Party. Like-minded candidates have already made gains in national elections in Austria and most recently in a state election in Germany that stunned Merkel's ruling party. In each case, they surged by disavowing relatively timid efforts by the European Union to resettle refugees from Syria and other war-torn countries. Although climate change is not a defining issue in these contests as it is in the U.S. and Britain, the growing opposition to anything associated with the EU and its regulatory system poses an obvious threat to future continent-wide efforts to cap greenhouse gas emissions.
Elsewhere in the world, similar strands of thinking are spreading, raising serious questions about the ability of governments to ratify the Paris Agreement or, more importantly, to implement its provisions. Take India, for example.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Hindu nationalistBharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has indeed voiced support for the Paris accord and promised a vast expansion of solar power. He has also made no secret of his determination to promote economic growth at any cost, including greatly increased reliance on coal-powered electricity. That spells trouble. According to the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy, India is likely to double its coal consumption over the next 25 years, making it the world's second largest coal consumer after China. Combined with an increase in oil and natural gas consumption, such a surge in coal use could result in a tripling of India's carbon dioxide emissions at a time when most countries (including the U.S. and China) are expected to experience a peak or decline in theirs.
Prime Minister Modi is well aware that his devotion to coal has generated resentment among environmentalists in India and elsewhere who seek to slow the growth of carbon emissions. He nonetheless insists that, as a major developing nation, India should enjoy a special right to achieve economic growth in any way it can, even if this means endangering the environment. "The desire to improve one's lot has been the primary driving force behind human progress," his government affirmed in its emissions-reduction pledge to the Paris climate summit. "Nations that are now striving to fulfill this 'right to grow' of their teeming millions cannot be made to feel guilty [about] their development agenda as they attempt to fulfill this legitimate aspiration."
Russia is similarly likely to put domestic economic needs (and the desire to remain a great power, militarily and otherwise) ahead of its global climate obligations. Although President Vladimir Putin attended the Paris summit and assured the gathered nations of Russian compliance with its outcome, he has also made it crystal clear that his country has no intention of giving up its reliance on oil and natural gas exports for a large share of its national income. According to the Energy Information Administration, Russia's government relies on such exports for a staggering 50% of its operating revenue, a share it dare not jeopardize at a time when its economy -- already buffeted by European Union and U.S. sanctions -- is in deep recession. To ensure the continued flow of hydrocarbon income, in fact, Moscow has announced multibillion dollar plans to develop new oil and gas fields in Siberia and the Arctic, even if such efforts fly in the face of commitments to reduce future carbon emissions.
From Reform and Renewal to Rivalry
Such nationalistic exceptionalism could become something of the norm if Donald Trump wins in November, or other nations join those already eager to put the needs of a fossil fuel-based domestic growth agenda ahead of global climate commitments. With that in mind, consider the assessment of future energy trends that the Norwegian energy giant Statoil recently produced. In it is a chilling scenario focused on just this sort of dystopian future.
The second-biggest producer of natural gas in Europe after Russia's Gazprom, Statoil annually issues Energy Perspectives, a report that explores possible future energy trends. Previous editions included scenarios labeled "reform" (predicated on coordinated but gradual international efforts to shift from carbon fuels to green energy technology) and "renewal" (positing a more rapid transition). The 2016 edition, however, added a grim new twist: "rivalry." It depicts a realistically downbeat future in which international strife and geopolitical competition discourage significant cooperation in the climate field.
According to the document, the new section is "driven" by real-world developments -- by, that is, "a series of political crises, growing protectionism, and a general fragmentation of the state system, resulting in a multipolar world developing in different directions. In this scenario, there is growing disagreement about the rules of the game and a decreasing ability to manage crises in the political, economic, and environmental arenas."
In such a future, Statoil suggests, the major powers would prove to be far more concerned with satisfying their own economic and energy requirements than pursuing collaborative efforts aimed at slowing the pace of climate change. For many of them, this would mean maximizing the cheapest and most accessible fuel options available -- often domestic supplies of fossil fuels. Under such circumstances, the report suggests, the use of coal would rise, not fall, and its share of global energy consumption would actually increase from 29% to 32%.
In such a world, forget about those "nationally determined contributions" agreed to in Paris and think instead about a planet whose environment will grow ever less friendly to life as we know it. In its rivalry scenario, writes Statoil, "the climate issue has low priority on the regulatory agenda. While local pollution issues are attended to, large-scale international climate agreements are not the chosen way forward. As a consequence, the current NDCs are only partly implemented. Climate finance ambitions are not met, and carbon pricing to stimulate cost-efficient reductions in countries and across national borders are limited."
Coming from a major fossil fuel company, this vision of how events might play out on an increasingly tumultuous planet makes for peculiar reading: more akin to Eaarth -- Bill McKibben's dystopian portrait of a climate-ravaged world -- than the usual industry-generated visions of future world health and prosperity. And while "rivalry" is only one of several scenarios Statoil's authors considered, they clearly found it unnervingly convincing. Hence, in a briefing on the report, the company's chief economist Eirik Waerness indicated that Great Britain's looming exit from the EU was exactly the sort of event that would fit the proposed model and might multiply in the future.
Climate Change in a World of Geopolitical Exceptionalism
Indeed, the future pace of climate change will be determined as much by geopolitical factors as technological developments in the energy sector. While it is evident that immense progress is being made in bringing down the price of wind and solar power in particular -- far more so than all but a few analysts anticipated until recently -- the political will to turn such developments into meaningful global change and so bring carbon emissions to heel before the planet is unalterably transformed may, as the Statoil authors suggest, be dematerializing before our eyes. If so, make no mistake about it: we will be condemning Earth's future inhabitants, our own children and grandchildren, to unmitigated disaster.
As President Obama's largely unheralded success in Hangzhou indicates, such a fate is not etched in stone. If he could persuade the fiercely nationalistic leader of a country worried about its economic future to join him in signing the climate agreement, more such successes are possible. His ability to achieve such outcomes is, however, diminishing by the week, and few other leaders of his stature and determination appear to be waiting in the wings.
To avoid an Eaarth (as both Bill McKibben and the Statoil authors imagine it) and preserve the welcoming planet in which humanity grew and thrived, climate activists will have to devote at least as much of their energy and attention to the international political arena as to the technology sector. At this point, electing green-minded leaders, stopping climate deniers (or ignorers) from capturing high office, and opposing fossil-fueled ultra-nationalism is the only realistic path to a habitable planet.
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'Another Day, Another Death Knell' for TTIP as France Calls for End of Talks
Describing ongoing negotiations as producing "nothing or just crumbs," French Junior Trade Minister Matthias Fekl says there is "no more political support in France" for the corporate-friendly deal
Aug 30, 2016
Though the office of the U.S Trade Representative on Monday said efforts to seal a trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union were still "making steady progress," the attempt to put an optimistic spin on the struggling negotiations was undermined once again on Tuesday as France's financial minister called for the outright suspension of talks.
Describing the ongoing negotiations with the U.S. over the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) as producing "nothing or just crumbs," French Junior Trade Minister Matthias Fekl said on Tuesday there is "no more political support in France" for the deal at this point.
"Another day, another death knell for TTIP, the toxic trade deal." --Global Justice Now"France calls for an end to these negotiations," Fekl said during an interview on RMC radio in France. He indicated there is no longer any hope that the countries involved could secure an agreement by year's end. "France would rather see things as they are and not harbor the illusion that an agreement will be struck before the end of the U.S. president's term in office."
While backers of the corporate-friendly deal, including U.S. President Barack Obama, have vowed to push ahead, its critics see the wave of public declarations by top ministers as proof their campaigning against the deal is paying off.
The stance by France comes just days after Germany's top finance minister, Sigmar Gabriel, said the efforts to forge an agreement on TTIP had essentially come to a halt. "The talks with the US have de facto failed because we Europeans of course must not succumb to American demands," Gabriel said on Sunday. "Nothing is moving forward."
According to Reuters:
Paris threatened to stall further negotiations as long ago as April. But with national elections due in both France and Germany in 2017, experts were saying before the summer that this year--before the end of President Barack Obama's mandate in January--may be the best opportunity to strike a deal.
President Francois Hollande on Tuesday appeared to endorse Fekl's position, telling ambassadors that he could not back a deal by that deadline.
"The negotiations are bogged down, positions have not been respected, it's clearly unbalanced," he said.
Though Gabriel hails from Germany's left-leaning Social Democrat Party, the TTIP continues to receive backing from conservative members of parliament as well as Chancellor Angela Merkel, who reaffirmed Monday her support for the continuation of talks.
Following Gabriel's comments over the weekend, a statement from the office of U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman on Monday downplayed the potential breakdown of talks by telling Der Spiegel, "Negotiations are in fact making steady progress."
But Gabriel reiterated his opposition to the deal again Tuesday as he put the blame on the U.S. delegation's failure to move on key changes to the agreement. "I think the Americans actively ended TTIP because they weren't prepared to make compromises with Europeans," Gabriel told a news conference in Berlin.
As social justice organizations have blasted the TTIP since its inception, the collapsing talks come as a welcome development.
"Another day, another death knell for #TTIP, the toxic trade deal," tweeted the U.K.-based Global Justice Now on Tuesday morning.
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Anti-Austerity Leftist Announces Challenge to French President Hollande
Former industry minister and 'left-wing firebrand' Arnaud Montebourg announced his candidacy for president on Sunday
Aug 21, 2016
Seeking to replace France's increasingly unpopular President Francois Hollande, former industry minister and "left-wing firebrand" Arnaud Montebourg announced his candidacy for president on Sunday.
The French election will take place in May 2017. Hollande, whom Jacobin notes has "force[d] his way though political institutions and democracy in order to implement his unpopular policies," has not yet said whether he will run for re-election. In 2016, he faced a popular uprising under the banner "Nuit Debout," a pro-democracy movement that grew out of protests against his anti-labor and authoritarian security policies.
On Sunday, Montebourg urged Hollande not to run, calling his record "indefensible" and charging him with betraying the "ideals of the left."
According to Reuters, the candidate "said his project would include measures to end austerity while raising expenditure, reverse tax increases of the last five years, fight globalization and restructure the European Union which had 'practically become a failed company'."
"I shouldn't be here proposing an alternative because that's what we promised four years ago," Montebourg said at a rally in Burgundy.
"But four years later we are left with a feeling of waste," he continued. "Like the majority of French it is impossible to support the current president. I am candidate for the presidency."
The Associated Press reports that, "[a]s minister, he introduced a measure to broaden the government's authority to intervene when foreign companies want to buy firms the state considers vital, including in the sectors of transport, health and communications."
Montebourg was ousted two years ago "amid open disagreements with his bosses over their shift to supply-side economic policies," Politico Europe wrote earlier this year, pointing out that this dust-up "bolsters his credentials as an outsider."
Notably, Reuters reports, Montebourg, "who came third in the 2012 primary winning some 17 percent of the vote, did not say whether he would take part in the [Socialist] party's primaries or run as an independent left-wing candidate."
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